Earnings Labs

Marex Group plc Ordinary Shares (MRX)

Q4 2024 Earnings Call· Thu, Mar 6, 2025

$52.93

-0.36%

Key Takeaways · AI generated
AI summary not yet generated for this transcript. Generation in progress for older transcripts; check back soon, or browse the full transcript below.

Same-Day

+0.30%

1 Week

-13.54%

1 Month

+0.99%

vs S&P

+12.92%

Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good day, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Marex Q4 and Full Year 2024 Conference Call and Webcast. At this time all participants are in listen-only mode. After the speakers' presentation, there will be a question-and-answer session. [Operator Instructions] Please note that today's conference is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to your first speaker, Mr. Robert Coates, Global Head of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

Robert Coates

Analyst

Good morning, everyone. I'm Robert Coates, Global Head of Investor Relations for Marex. Thank you for joining us today for our results conference call. Speaking today are Ian Lowitt, CEO; and Rob Irvin, CFO. After the formal remarks, we will open the call up for questions. Before we begin, I would like to highlight that certain matters discussed on today's conference call are forward-looking statements relating to future events, management's plans for the business and the future financial performance of the group, which are all subject to risks and uncertainties. Actual results could differ materially from those anticipated in the forward-looking statements. The risk factors that may affect these results are referred to in the company's press release and our previous prospectus filed with the SEC. The forward-looking statements made today are as of the date of this call, and the company does not undertake any obligation to update these forward-looking statements. Finally, the speakers may refer to certain adjusted non-IFRS financial measures on this call. A reconciliation of the non-IFRS financial measures to the most directly comparable IFRS measures is available in the company's press release. A copy of today's release and the investor presentation can be found on the Investor page of marex.com. With that, I'll hand over to Ian.

Ian Lowitt

Analyst

Good morning, and welcome to our fourth quarter and full year 2024 earnings call. I'm delighted to present Marex's first set of annual results since our IPO last April, and I'm proud of all we have accomplished in our first year as a public company. Our performance demonstrates that we are successfully executing our strategy, and it is delivering value for our shareholders, clients and other stakeholders. As of year-end, our share price had risen by around 64%, putting us in the top quartile of U.S. IPO performance in 2024, with further price appreciation since then. During the year, we have taken opportunities to grow both organically and inorganically, broadening our product offering and geographic reach. As a result, we have increased our relevance to a larger and growing client base, enabling us to gain market share. We have built a platform that is both diversified and resilient when we believe can deliver growth across a range of market environments. As I've said before, we are grateful for the enthusiastic response we have received from the market and for the time investors and analysts have spent engaging with us to understand the Marex story. We have learned a lot from you and your insightful questions about Marex. Moving now to Slide 4 and a summary of our performance highlights. Our fourth quarter performance was strong in what is typically a slowest quarter seasonally. We saw a continuation of the themes we experienced throughout the year, a supportive market backdrop, continued market share gains and momentum across all of our businesses. We continue to strengthen our position in the market with Marex outpacing growth in overall volumes in the markets in which we operate. This was particularly the case in our securities business, where we are now benefiting from the integration…

Rob Irvin

Analyst

Thanks, Ian, and good morning, everyone. Turning to Slide 11, as Ian said, we had another strong quarter. Q4 revenues grew 28% to $416 million, reflecting strong levels of client activity and favorable market conditions. Adjusted profit before tax grew 55% to $81 million. On a full year basis, we grew revenues by $350 million to $1.6 billion. Over 70% of this growth was organic. Total costs increased 28% as we continue to invest in both our front office and our control and support functions to support future growth. Adjusted profit before tax was $321 million, ahead of the guidance range we gave at Q3 earnings of $300 million to $305 million. Adjusted profit before tax margin increased 200 basis points to 20%, demonstrating our platform’s ability to deliver scale benefits. As I've said before, our non-operating adjustments of $25 million were primarily related to our IPO and historic fees paid to our private equity shareholders. As a result, we would expect minimal adjustments between our adjusted and our reported profit before tax metrics going forward, as seen in the third and fourth quarters. Adjusted return on equity rose to 30%, while adjusted diluted EPS was $3.07 per share, up 33% year-over-year. As you can see on Slide 12, all of our business segments delivered strong double-digit revenue and adjusted profit growth for the full year. I'll focus on our quarterly segmental performance on Slide 13. Clearing revenue grew 48% to $125 million, driven by growth in net interest income, primarily reflecting higher average balances and commission income. Contracts cleared increased by 27%, well above the market volume growth of 7%, demonstrating again the market share gains that Ian highlighted. Adjusted profit before tax margin was 53% for the quarter, in line with the full year. Agency and Execution revenue…

Ian Lowitt

Analyst

Thanks, Rob. Nearly one year on from our IPO, we thought it would be helpful on Slide 19 to remind you of the things we said we would do when we came to market last April and what we have delivered since then. I’ve covered many of these already, so I will spend some time on the next few slides on how we are executing our growth strategy and gaining market share. In 2024, we continue to diversify our revenue base, increasing our presence in our growth markets. As you can see on Slide 20, EMEA is our largest market, generating 56% of Marex’s revenue and growing at a 34% CAGR. Within EMEA, we announced the acquisition of UK-based FX specialist Hamilton Court Group. This acquisition will expand our FX offering and complement our existing solutions business, adding around 1,000 corporate clients. We also announced the acquisition of Aarna Capital, an Abu Dhabi-based clearing firm, which is expected to add 135 new clients, posting $330 million of cash balances. The Middle East is an important market for us, and this acquisition will accelerate our growth while expanding our international client base. The Americas is our next largest market, growing at 58% CAGR and now a significantly larger portion of our revenue total at 36%. During 2024, we fully integrated the prime services and outsourced trading business we acquired from TD Cowen, which generates around 70% of its revenue from the U.S. This contribution to growth in our Securities business, particularly in the second half of the year. While APAC is our smallest region, it’s just 8% currently is growing the fastest at a 69% CAGR. We continue to see significant growth opportunities here with the clearing memberships of ASX and SGX that we added at the end of 2023 helping…

Operator

Operator

Thank you. [Operator Instructions] We are now going to proceed with our first question. The questions come from the line of Ben Budish from Barclays. Please ask your question.

Ben Budish

Analyst

Hi, good morning and thanks for taking the question. Maybe just to start, Ian, could you talk a little bit about the Q4 results? I'm specifically curious about the big step-up in collateral balances. How much was due to onboarding new clients? How much was due to the kick up in volatility that might have driven collateral requirements at the exchanges? How do those two pieces sort of factor in? And then we're a little over two months into Q1, curious if you can give us an update in terms of what you're seeing quarter-to-date as well?

Ian Lowitt

Analyst

Sure, Ben. Thanks for the questions. So I think as you sort of identified, I think that the increase in balance is a function of those two things that you've identified. So we are adding sort of clients to our platform. And we are also sort of seeing average balances sort of increasing partly through an increase in business, but also as a result of sort of increases in margin rates. It's hard for me to sort of separate it out into precise percentages for each of those. As you would expect within Clearing, there isn't – it takes a while for sort of Clearing clients to come on to the platform, so that lead time is actually quite long and is measured in months or even in quarters. So what you saw in the fourth quarter wasn't sort of the effect of just a very large number of clients coming on to the platform. It was sort of part of a steady increase of clients through the course of the year, which is continuing into this year. So more of it, I think, would be a function of sort of more activity and higher balances. And that would be what we would be seeing continuing into this year. I mean, the one thing that I think I had referenced a few times is what we are seeing is us winning sort of competitive mandates with some of sort of the largest sort of Clearing clients. And so we're certainly seeing the impact of adding in not just sort of small and midsized clients, but actually some sort of the larger mandates. And that will sort of continue in a slow and sort of steady way sort of through the course of the year. Your second question was around the first quarter. I mean, obviously, we're only two and a bit months into that. So we don't know how the whole quarter will turn out. But as I'm sure you and your colleagues will have seen, exchange volumes have been sort of elevated, both year-on-year as well as quarter-to-quarter. And we’re certainly seeing the effect of that. The world is a more volatile place and you sort of see that in the volatility of underlying asset classes. And again, that sort of combination of increased volumes and higher volatility is clearly the environment that is helpful to a business like Marex and represents the right kind of backdrop to the more structural trends, which are adding clients and doing more business with them.

Ben Budish

Analyst

Got it. Helpful. Maybe just one more kind of in the weeds question. On the securities revenues within agency and execution those jumped quite a bit quarter-over-quarter as well as year-over-year. Maybe a similar question. Can you kind of unpack what’s going on there? And you sort of talked about making progress with the legacy Cowen prime brokerage business and the customer base. Can you speak a little bit more to what’s going on there? What specifically happened in Q4? And similarly, how you see that opportunity into 2025?

Ian Lowitt

Analyst

Yes. I mean, fortunately we have Paolo with us who runs that business. So actually I’ll pass that one on to Paolo.

Paolo Tonucci

Analyst

Thanks. So I think what you’re seeing is a growing momentum [Technical Difficulty] relatively high cost – the high-cost base. So the profitability increases quite significantly as you sort of get to scale through that in the second half of the year. So we really – we are only in the second half of the year, did really, I think start adding the full range of products and the full set of capabilities, which include capabilities around stock lending [Technical Difficulty] when we talk about being on balance sheets, it’s predominantly being able to provide that sort of full range of stock – lending stock [Technical Difficulty] The second half of the year is when we started winning client mandates. Quite a stable business. In the second half, we saw the impact of high levels of commissions and higher asset balances with those clients, and it was quite progressive. So through the second half of the year, we’ve seen sort of improvements almost every month.

Ian Lowitt

Analyst

And I think sort of just drawing on a theme there, Ben, we’ve talked a lot about how part of what we look for in acquisitions is an opportunity to sort of raise its underlying level of profitability by making it part of the Marex platform and offering clients a broader set of services or capabilities than they had sort of previously. And I think that what we’re seeing in this acquisition is completely consistent with that, which is a good underlying business. That business is continuing to perform well. But we’re seeing lift as you make that a part of the Marex platform and broaden the set of things that are available to the clients that come over as part of those acquisition.

Ben Budish

Analyst

Okay. Got it. Thank you. And looking forward to seeing you in New York next month.

Ian Lowitt

Analyst

Good. We look forward to seeing you.

Operator

Operator

We are now going to proceed with our next question. And the questions come from the line of Patrick Moley from Piper Sandler. Please ask your question.

Piper Sandler

Analyst

Yes. Good morning. Thanks for taking the question. Ian, you sort of mentioned it in your response to the first question you got there. But when you think about the just overall market share gains, you’re seeing specifically in the trading business, you’ve talked about taking share from clients that the banks are just finding it harder and harder to service, as well as from smaller competitors that are finding it harder to compete. So when you look ahead to the rest of this year and just going forward, where do you see the most opportunity in terms of those two parts of the market when it comes to market share gains?

Ian Lowitt

Analyst

I mean, I suspect that the market share gains are going to be more associated with sort of winning mandates with larger clients, which is not to say that we don’t look to add sort of mid-sized clients. But I think that as I sort of reflect on who it is that are coming onto the platform, I think we’re gaining share with small and mid-sized clients. But I think that what's distinctive at the moment is some of those larger clients coming on to the platform, and that's probably the bigger driver of share. So it's not to say that the other isn't. It's just to say that I think that it's the larger clients coming on to the platform that will be driving the market share.

Piper Sandler

Analyst

Okay. Great. And then just as a follow-up – it was a great quarter, not much to nitpick. But if I was going to pick one, I think it would be in the Market Making segment, particularly in the Metals Market Making. It looks like revenues dropped off pretty significantly there. So just wondering, I understand that there was some elevated activity around the middle of the year. But what drove the weak fourth quarter? And how should we think about kind of a normalized level as we head into 2025?

Ian Lowitt

Analyst

Yes. I mean, Rob, why don't you take that?

Rob Irvin

Analyst

Okay. Why don't I start. So when you look at the performance versus the second and third quarter, we saw significantly lower levels of volatility in the market after really strong levels of activity in the first part of the year. And when you look at the fourth quarter versus the fourth quarter of last year, we recorded a fair value adjustment to reflect the open risk positions at year-end, which we hold to service client demand compared to an immaterial adjustment in the prior year.

Ian Lowitt

Analyst

So I think it's less a sort of indication of sort of underperformance in the business and more a function of almost sort of technical accounting that drives that particular number, Patrick.

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst

All right. Yes. Great. Well, congrats on a strong quarter. That's it for me, guys.

Robert Coates

Analyst

Thanks, Patrick.

Operator

Operator

We are now going to proceed with our next question. And the questions come from the line of Kyle Voigt from KBW. Please ask your question.

Kyle Voigt

Analyst

Good morning, everyone. Maybe a question on the margin profile of the business. Obviously, you're able to deliver 20% margins, adjusted margins in 2024. Maybe there are some puts and takes with that. You had some benefits there from a stronger year overall from Market Making. I'm just wondering if you can – if you think you can continue to expand margins in 2025 off of the 2024 base? And within that, I think Agency and Execution, specifically has been a big driver of that margin expansion. Margins are up 300 basis points year-on-year for the full year. Maybe you can also just comment how you feel about being able to drive additional operating leverage in that business as you're going to look into 2025?

Ian Lowitt

Analyst

Yes. Look, I mean, I think it's a great question. We've – I mean here are sort of the components of it. I mean obviously, as we grow, we would expect to see some amount of operating leverage. We – it depends a little on sort of how you grow. And as you grow in a diversified way, you tend to add new products or new capabilities and new geographies. And if you're in that circumstance, you typically have to do quite a lot of investment in your support and control areas to ensure you're growing in a safe way. If you're growing through increasing scale and existing activities, then you are going to see some returns to scale. But I think that what you've seen and what you should anticipate is, we're going to continue to make investments in our support and control infrastructure in a way to ensure that even as we grow, we are going to be able to do that in a very controlled way. Most of our competition [ph] cost is sort of very variable. And so again, as we grow, we would expect that cost to continue to move. But there will be some returns to scale. And when we think about the level of investment that we operate with, I think over some period of time, that normalizes out. So the combination of all those things, I think – when I pin the spot where we would expect margin expansion, you should not expect it to be dramatic, but which you should expect, and we would hold ourselves to some slow margin expansion as we continue to grow. And I think exactly as you've identified, the place where I expect that margin expansion to occur will be in the Agency and Execution space in capital markets, in particular, where we're seeing the benefits of sort of restructuring where there have been a series of acquisitions and we needed to integrate those effectively into the platform where there's sort of contract restructuring, things of that kind. And so we believe that will continue to be an area where our margins will continue to expand.

Kyle Voigt

Analyst

That's great. And just for a follow-up, if I can just reference Slide 16, the capital requirement that's on that chart there of $309 million, it stepped up from $235 million that was shown as of last quarter. Can you just give a bit more color as to what drove that? I wasn't sure if that kind of gets reevaluated once per year. And then also, can you just remind us, as TD Cowen and the prime business kind of scales up. How does that impact that the capital requirement?

Rob Irvin

Analyst

So you're totally right, Kyle. We reevaluate it on an annual basis. The firm has got bigger over the course of sort of 2023, 2024, and the step-up in capital requirement reflects that.

Paolo Tonucci

Analyst

[Technical Difficulty]

Kyle Voigt

Analyst

Just a heads up. We can't really hear Paolo, if he's speaking, keeps cutting out.

Paolo Tonucci

Analyst

Sorry, Kyle. [Indiscernible] I was just saying that in relation to the second part of your question about the prime services business, it's relatively low capital intensity. So the impact of that business growing has been quite limited in terms of the capital requirement. The client activity is quite low leverage and it uses relatively little balance sheet.

Kyle Voigt

Analyst

Great. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

We are now going to proceed with our next question. And the questions come from the line of Dan Fannon from Jefferies. Please ask your question.

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst

Hi. Thanks for taking my question. This is June [ph] on behalf of Dan. Could you maybe just provide us with some thoughts on your M&A strategy going forward? The last deal was struck almost five months ago. And so just looking ahead, are there any specific product capabilities or maybe geographic coverage that you might be focusing on? Thanks.

Ian Lowitt

Analyst

Look, I think that we're – as we've sort of described, we're looking at a number of things. I think so the broad theme here is there's a number of sellers, a limited number of buyers. And what that does is it throws off a lot of opportunities sort of for us. And then as you sort of described, we look at things that add capabilities and add sort of regional coverage. I don't think there's anything specific that I would want to call out at this point, but I can say that we have an extremely active pipeline. It includes potential acquisitions in a number of different geographies. It includes things that are across a number of our businesses. And broadly, we look for things that are across all of our segments. So we're not just focusing on one. So we're seeing opportunities in Clearing, we're seeing opportunities in Agency and Execution, we're seeing opportunities in Market Making, and we're evaluating all of those sort of for fit. And we'll be in a position to announce them if and when we get them to a point where we're in a position to sort of find an SBA. I don't know what you'd add to that, Paolo?

Paolo Tonucci

Analyst

Yes. There's been no slowdown in activity. I mean these things, are by their nature, are going to be somewhat unpredictable in terms of signing and closing dates, but we've been very active.

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst

Okay. Thank you. And then as a quick follow-up, the fixed investments that was repriced higher, are there any more tailwind to yields from that sort of fixed repricing to come?

Rob Irvin

Analyst

No. So this was a bunch of U.S. treasuries that we had invested in sort of 2022, which created a little bit of tailwind, so a bit of headwind as we went into 2023. As those rolled off, we reinvested them at a higher rate. You can see when you look at the return – the yield return in the fourth quarter, we're much closer to Fed funds than we have been historically, and that's the benefit of those reinvestments.

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst

Okay. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

We are now going to proceed with our next question. And the question comes from the line of Alexander Blostein from Goldman Sachs. Please ask your question.

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst

Hi. Good morning everyone. This is Anthony on for Alex. I wanted to get a sense on your view of the current market environment, given the volatility in a lot of areas you compete in. What has been your experience in previous periods of market volatility in terms of both market share and client behavior?

Ian Lowitt

Analyst

Look, I think that this is – it is an attractive market for Marex. We're seeing higher levels of volatility across pretty much in every asset class. We're seeing higher levels of sort of client activity because it's sort of more difficult for people to anticipate exactly where things are going to go in a variety of different views that is affecting the level of activity of clients. Interest rates, at least for now, seem – are still sort of quite high, obviously lower than the levels that we experienced last year, but they're quite high. So as a sort of general matter, this is an attractive market for Marex. I mean it's not disruptive in the way that we saw for the cohort quarter or for the Ukraine invasion quarter. So we're not seeing those kinds of dislocations. It's just a sort of general elevated level of volumes and a generally elevated level of volatility that's playing out across all our segments and all asset classes. So that's an attractive sort of environment for firms like ours. And I think we're a firm that's built to take advantage of those opportunities.

Rob Irvin

Analyst

And just to add to that, because I think some of this in the execution space is clearer. But certainly, it's – it sort of helped with the level of activity but as you see the growth in market share, that's driven by adding clients by adding sort of capabilities, by adding products and by adding people. So a lot of what we see in terms of increase in the agency and execution space is actually not just the benefits of more volatile markets, but the fact that we've added people and products.

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst

Great. That's helpful. And maybe just a follow-up on M&A. What are your expectations on the pace of M&A in 2025 and whether you'd pursue large-scale M&A, opposed to bolt-ons?

Ian Lowitt

Analyst

It's a very good question and quite difficult to answer that because there are a mix actually of bolt-ons and slightly larger, more transformative opportunities that we're assessing. I mean the majority of what we will do will be just because it's more quickly absorbable will be of the nature of Aarna Capital, so a 35 to 40-person team, albeit in a very attractive space. So I think it will be by number more weighted towards bolt-ons. As we sort of talked about before, our cadence has been somewhere around four, five transactions a year, and I would expect that it's difficult to do more than that. And – but we will look to achieve something like that over the course of the year. And if we – the more transformative transactions typically are a little bit less predictable in terms of when they come and how they progress. But there are more transformative opportunities that we're currently looking at.

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst

Great. That's helpful. Thanks.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. [Operator Instructions] We are now going to proceed with our next question. And the questions come from the line of Carlos Gomez-Lopez from HSBC. Please ask your question.

Carlos Gomez-Lopez

Analyst

Hello. Good morning. Thank you for talking my question. So I would like to know, you mentioned how you continue to do market share against banks and smaller companies. Given that we are now in a new regulatory environment, let's say, in the U.S. and the bank seems to be – and less scrutiny, less pressure than they have been in the past. Do you foresee any change in that competitive environment going forward? Second, could you give us some guidance about your tax rate in 2025? Thank you so much.

Ian Lowitt

Analyst

Sure. So with regard to sort of the first question, I think that – it's obviously one that we've thought about a fair amount and also sort of quite attentive to. I guess my sort of preliminary view on this, which is borne out by existing experiences to the extent that U.S. banks are feeling that they can sort of take on more, it's unlikely that the way in which they're going to choose to do that is to expand out into the set of services that we provide. I mean, if you decide that you want to get bigger in clearing, that's more a matter of investing in your systems, sort of updating how you're engaging with exchanges. Some kind of long client acquisition process, you don't get returns for some period of time. And if your alternative is to allocate more capital, not to clearing, but to allocate that capital to trading opportunities or lending opportunities, I think it's more likely that banks are going to choose to go down there for us rather than try to build out businesses like clearing, which they've been deemphasizing in one form or another for a while. And similarly, agency and execution, building that out when you've been retreating from it for a while and you've done that for reasons that consistent with your strategy, it's not obvious to me that they're going to reverse that. So I think you're probably right that banks will, particularly in the U.S., be more ambitious. They'll have a different way in which rate [ph] capital is potentially assessed against various risks. Regulations may be applied in a sort of differential way. But I think it's much, much more likely that the way they respond to that is by increasing the amount of trading they do and the amount of lending they do than anything else. And broadly, if they increase their level of trading, they become potential clients for us, and many of our largest clients are the largest financial institutions in the U.S. who look to us to help them gain sort of access to market and market liquidity. So that's certainly the way it appears to be playing out at the moment. I mean, obviously, one never knows and you don't know what's going on within each institution. But that certainly feels to us to be the way that it's likely that the banks respond and it's consistent with our current experience. With regard to tax rate, why don't you take that on, Rob?

Rob Irvin

Analyst

Thanks, Ian. So our tax rate in 2024 was 26.3%, it's exactly where we expected it to come in. It's down versus 2023, primarily due to the decrease in the number of nontax deductible items. Where I'd expect it to go going forward, I expect it to be between 25% and 26%, but it will depend a little bit upon the geographical split of profits each year.

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst

Very clear. Thank you, and look forward to seeing you in New York.

Ian Lowitt

Analyst

Thank you very much.

Rob Irvin

Analyst

Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. We have no further questions at this time. I would like to hand back to you for closing remarks.

Ian Lowitt

Analyst

Well, thank you all for joining the call. I mean obviously, we're very proud of what we accomplished in our first year as a public company. We're proud of what we did in the fourth quarter and what we delivered in 2024. And I think as you hopefully got a sense from our response to many of your questions, we're very excited about 2025. We've had a strong start to the year. The market environment is certainly one that is supportive for our particular services, and we certainly are seeing a great deal of sort of engagement with our clients. So obviously, still early days with regard to the year, but it's certainly been a very good start to the year. And we look forward to engaging with some of you at our Investor Day. I mean, as we indicated in the remarks, it's really an opportunity to get to know our management team a little bit better for us to go into our businesses. There's no big change in strategy. There's no big reveal, but it is an opportunity for us to engage with investors and analysts and have you understand Marex to an even greater extent than what you currently do. So thank you for your attention and engagement and questions, and we look forward to seeing you all over the course of 2025.

Operator

Operator

This concludes today's conference call. Thank you all for participating. You may now disconnect your lines. Speakers, please stand by. Thank you.