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Marsh & McLennan Companies, Inc. (MRSH)

Q3 2018 Earnings Call· Thu, Oct 25, 2018

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Welcome to Marsh & McLennan Companies Conference Call. Third Quarter 2018 Financial Results and supplemental information were issued earlier this morning. They are available on the company's website at www.mmc.com. Please be advised that the call is being recorded. Please note that remarks made today may include forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements are subject to risks and uncertainties and a variety of factors may cause actual results to differ materially from those contemplated by such statements. For a more details discussion of such factors, please refer to our earnings release for this quarter and to our most recent SEC filings, including our most recent Form 10-K, all of which are available on the MMC website. During the call today, we may also discuss certain non-GAAP financial measures. For a reconciliation of these measures to the most closely comparable GAAP measures, please refer to the schedule in today's earnings release. I'll now turn this over to Dan Glaser, President and CEO of Marsh & McLennan Companies. Daniel S. Glaser - Marsh & McLennan Cos., Inc.: Thank you and good morning. Thank you for joining us to discuss our third quarter results reported earlier today. I'm Dan Glaser, President and CEO of Marsh & McLennan Companies. Joining me on the call today is Mark McGivney, our CFO; and the CEOs of our businesses. John Doyle of Marsh; Peter Hearn of Guy Carpenter who is dialing in from London; Julio Portalatin of Mercer; and Scott McDonald of Oliver Wyman. Also with us this morning is Dan Farrell, Head of Investor Relations. The third quarter was eventful for Marsh & McLennan. I am pleased with our overall financial results for the quarter and I will talk about them a bit later. Without a doubt, the major highlight of the third quarter was our agreement to…

Operator

Operator

Thank you. In the interest of addressing questions from as many participants as possible, we would ask that all participants limit themselves to one question and one follow-up question. We will take our first question today from Morgan Stanley, Kai Pan. Please go ahead. Your line is open. Kai Pan - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC: Thank you and good morning. So, my first question on JLT, Dan, just follow-up on your comments you have spoken with the clients and employees over the last months. And I just wondered can you give some example to see your comfort levels about a potential revenue opportunity or decent synergy if there's any risk as well as a $250 million cost-saving target? And also if you can confirm – if you can like discuss if you're going to report cash EPS going forward after the deal close. Daniel S. Glaser - Marsh & McLennan Cos., Inc.: Okay. So, let me take the first part of that question, and then I'll take the second part, and hand it over to Mark. So, the – our entire MMC executive team, leadership team spent last week in London, and we met with many people at JLT, and then we had a town hall which had around 1,500 people, and so it was a great display on both sides of talking about the industry and the business. We didn't get into a lot of specifics in anything. I mean, we're still in a period where there's a shareholder vote, November 7. We're still working through regulatory approval, so it's fairly high-level. And of course, we're not reaching out as Marsh McLennan to any JLT clients. We've obviously been contacted by some of our clients. And we view on an overall basis. Clients make decisions based upon capabilities…

Operator

Operator

Thank you. We now take our next question from Elyse Greenspan of Wells Fargo. Please go ahead.

Elyse B. Greenspan - Wells Fargo Securities LLC

Management

Hi. Thanks. Good morning. My first question is on Guy Carpenter, pretty strong organic growth, 11% in the quarter, in your opening comments you guys pointed to kind of broad-based growth throughout. If we can just get some more details there and then reinsurance is typically a very high margin business. Was that the driver of the margin improvement within RIS in the quarter? Or was there some margin improvement also coming from Marsh which did see 3% growth? And then, if we can also just get a little bit of an initial view for January 1 renewals next year? I know you're a little tempered for fourth quarter given reinstatements last year, but how is the reinsurance business looking in your minds as we think about 2019. Daniel S. Glaser - Marsh & McLennan Cos., Inc.: Okay. So before I hand off to Peter, I would just say that we report margins on a segment basis, so we don't want to go fall into the trap of talking about individual operating businesses and what their margins are. You know a lot about our business more than most and so I'll just leave it at that. But the overall margin on the segment has been pretty good this year and we expect that to continue into the fourth quarter. But Peter, you want to talk about Guy Carpenter and the growth and how you see things going into January 1. Peter C. Hearn - Marsh & McLennan Cos., Inc.: Sure. Thank you, Dan. Elyse, the growth in Q3 was well balanced across all three of our three businesses and our facultative business as well, and we saw particularly strong results from the U.S. and specials – and our Specialty businesses driven by growth on our health book and good new business growth as well. As I've stated before and I'll state again, we don't make pronouncements on where the market is headed because it will find its own equilibrium. We believe capital is still abundant and demand, well not fundamentally increasing, has increased 2018 over 2017. Daniel S. Glaser - Marsh & McLennan Cos., Inc.: Okay. Thanks. Elyse, do you have another question?

Elyse B. Greenspan - Wells Fargo Securities LLC

Management

Yeah, so my second question, in terms of margins. Just a follow-up to Kai's question; do you expect – you said Consulting should get better over time, would you expect to see some margin improvement there in the fourth quarter? And my second question, since we're modeling on revenue recognition adjusted, it does seem that the impact to EPS on a year-to-date basis was more positive than you would have laid out in your From 8-K earlier this year. Is there going to be a giveback of about that $0.10 in the fourth quarter? Or should we think about there being maybe a positive impact on full-year numbers, just because we're modeling off of that adjusted last year? I just want to make sure we're all setting our expectations correctly. Daniel S. Glaser - Marsh & McLennan Cos., Inc.: Okay, so let me take the margin question and then I'll hand off to Mark to talk about the accounting nature. Your comment about margins, do we expect margins in the Consulting segment to go up in the fourth quarter? Yes, that is our expectation. Do we expect margins in the Consulting segment to be able to go up in the future or will they remain upside down? Looking at Scott and Julio and knowing them and their leadership teams, it's not an expectation, it's knowledge. We will not stay upside down in Consulting. We will improve the business and we will grow revenues at a faster pace than we grow expenses. So Mark, you want to take the accounting question? Mark McGivney - Marsh & McLennan Cos., Inc.: Sure. So at least on RevRec, I'll say a few things to this – it's a dense topic. The first thing I'd say is, this is a major implementation of the standard…

Elyse B. Greenspan - Wells Fargo Securities LLC

Management

No, I'm all set. Thank you very much. I appreciate the color. Daniel S. Glaser - Marsh & McLennan Cos., Inc.: Perfect. Next question, please.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. We now take our next question from Mike Zaremski of Credit Suisse. Please go ahead. Michael Zaremski - Marsh & McLennan Cos., Inc.: Hey. Thanks. Within Mercer, between the recent acquisitions you mentioned in the prepared remarks and organic growth trends it looks like Investment Management will eventually be a larger revenue contributor than Defined Benefit Consulting. I'd love to know if those businesses have similar margins but I doubt you want to go down that path. Maybe you can help us size up how you would view the long-term growth rate for Investment Management, maybe how we can better size up the growth which has been phenomenal there? Daniel S. Glaser - Marsh & McLennan Cos., Inc.: Julio? Julio A. Portalatin - Marsh & McLennan Cos., Inc.: Yeah. Thanks. Thank you for that. First I want to take my hats off to our colleagues in the Investment and our Wealth business who have built a terrific business quite frankly, quarter-after-quarter continuing to outperform and be industry-leading and clients really – value proposition really resonating with client. So I sort of want to start off there, it's a business where we have been able to build a great brand in this space where we continue to invest organically and continue to invest inorganically as mentioned earlier with Pavilion, Summit, and Morningstar and we'll continue to see great strength there. From time-to-time, just like anything else you have a quarter that that does one thing or the other. But over the long term, this is business that we're pretty bullish on and we're going to continue to invest in and see great prospects for the future. Daniel S. Glaser - Marsh & McLennan Cos., Inc.: Now one other thing, just that we won't go down the path, Mike, of…

Operator

Operator

Thank you. We now like to move to Ryan Tunis of Autonomous Research. Please go ahead.

Ryan J. Tunis - Autonomous Research

Management

Hey. Thanks. I guess my first question just trying to put 2018 in context as a margin year. So, 2016 and 2017 we actually look like – looks like we had less organic revenue growth. In 2016, it was 140 bps of margin expansion. Last year, that was 70 bps. And this year, it looks like we're running around 4 bps and we're just trying to get to some margin expansion and there's a restructuring going on. So, I'm just trying to understand like is 4% kind of the new bogey in terms of being able to expand margins going forward or is there something special from an investment standpoint that's just made it more challenging this year? Daniel S. Glaser - Marsh & McLennan Cos., Inc.: Yeah. So, I would start by saying that we're focused more on earnings growth than anything else. And if I look at earnings growth for the year, NOI year-to-date within RIS is up about 10%. Consulting is having an off year for reasons that we had talked about before. I don't believe 4% is a new bogey and is replacing 3% because our expenses on a continuum are not growing at any faster pace than they were growing over the last couple of years, so we still believe that fundamentally around 3% we should be able to expand margins when we're at that level. This is a bit of an odd year and we signaled it not just last quarter but even the quarter before that. And if you look at the second quarter of this year, RIS had a really tough comp since the expense growth was zero in the second quarter of 2017, and we always knew that the third quarter was going to be an issue for Consulting since Mercer made an adjustment to its variable comp pool in the third quarter of last year, which resulted in them being down minus 2% in expense growth and obviously that was a really tough expense comparison and that explains virtually all of the drops in the third quarter of 2018 as it relates to the Consulting division. So, in this room we're all looking forward to the fourth quarter and we're all looking forward to 2019.

Ryan J. Tunis - Autonomous Research

Management

Got it, understood. And then just a quick follow-up for Mark. The pension credit year-to-date, any – I think that was flat with last year. Any indication of what that's going to be in 2019 relative to this year? Daniel S. Glaser - Marsh & McLennan Cos., Inc.: Mark, you want to take that? Mark McGivney - Marsh & McLennan Cos., Inc.: Ryan, it's too early to tell. Really, whether it comes to cash funding or the expense or credit looking forward, those things really depend on our year-end valuation and that's part of what we're doing now. So, we would typically comment on that in our fourth quarter call early next year. Daniel S. Glaser - Marsh & McLennan Cos., Inc.: Yeah. But it's fair to say that over the last several years we have materially de-risked pension as a P&L type of issue for the company. The next question please.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. We take our next question from Meyer Shields of KBW. Please go ahead. Meyer Shields - Keefe, Bruyette & Woods, Inc.: Great. Thanks. I think you've touched on this, but I wanted to dig in a little bit more. Given the overall, I guess, U.S. employment situation, should we expect a higher drift upward in salary and benefits expense excluding major acquisitions in 2019? Daniel S. Glaser - Marsh & McLennan Cos., Inc.: I mean, we watch – obviously, in a consulting brokerage firm, compensation and benefit is the largest cost of operating the business. And so, we watch it. We're a good payer, and we believe that we attract and retain very high quality colleagues. And so, we look at – across not only our industry but other industries in terms of attracting people in. So, our goal is not necessarily to drive our comp and then (00:48:35) as a percentage of revenue ratios lower. But having said that, we watch them very carefully, and when we look at a rolling 12-months basis over the last couple of years, it's relatively consistent. It's certainly – if anything, it's slightly lower than higher. So, we don't feel any inflation pressure on – with regard to higher levels of employment in the U.S. driving higher costs for us. I think the reality is, Meyer, for the last several years the unemployment rate in the U.S. for skilled positions in the areas in which we operate was zero. And so, from that standpoint, this situation has existed for a long period of time. Now, on the positive front, higher levels of employment creates – should create higher levels of business confidence, higher levels of payroll, higher levels of exposure units on things like workers' comp and casualty but that – time will tell on that as we move forward. Meyer Shields - Keefe, Bruyette & Woods, Inc.: Okay. No, that's helpful and yeah, hard to get, worst impact than zero. Mark, you touched on the FX impact overall in the quarter. Was there any observable impact on the individual segment margins from foreign currency? Mark McGivney - Marsh & McLennan Cos., Inc.: No. The impact on margins wasn't terribly significant. Meyer Shields - Keefe, Bruyette & Woods, Inc.: Okay, great. Thanks so much. Daniel S. Glaser - Marsh & McLennan Cos., Inc.: Thanks. Sure. Next question please.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question is from Brian Meredith of UBS. Please go ahead.

Brian Meredith - UBS Securities LLC

Management

Yes. Thank you. A couple of quick questions here for you. First one, I'm wondering. Is there any way you can quantify what the benefit to kind of the expenses are in the RIS from the restructuring program that's going on or margins, what kind of benefits you're seeing? Daniel S. Glaser - Marsh & McLennan Cos., Inc.: Yeah. I mean at the end, it's mild. As we said, on the call when we talked about the restructuring the first time, we weren't going to quantify the number of bottom line savings. We believe some of the restructuring will drop to the bottom line that would probably be more impactful next year than this year. The other thing would be we are going to be reinvesting some of the savings in areas that we believe we can accelerate in digitization, data and analytics where we've been investing as we go. And in fact, obviously, it's a margin headwind as we build capabilities in those areas. We're not really getting much revenue in those areas now but we are certainly picking up the expense. But ultimately, we believe, revenue will come from that. And as we've done in the past – we've said in the past, we're sort of a pay-as-you go investment company. We've had pretty consistent CapEx over a number of years. We don't build up levels of investment, but where we see an opportunity and between digital analytics, AI, ML, RPAs, there's a lot going on in the world and we've got to participate. We've got to take some risks, we've got to innovate, some of that cost money, and we want to free up some money to do that without overly impacting our expense rates. And that's one of the reasons why we're dropping some of the restructuring into reinvestment as opposed to alter the bottom line.

Brian Meredith - UBS Securities LLC

Management

Makes sense, makes sense. And then just quickly, a question on JLT. Of the cost saves these guys anticipate at (52:24) $250 million, does that include or anticipate any type of retention packages you're going to have to have for kind of key producers and executives? Daniel S. Glaser - Marsh & McLennan Cos., Inc.: Yeah. I mean, there's a couple of things. One, I never believe you can buy people's loyalty. People work for a company, when they're highly skilled they have choices. They can work in a lot of different firms. We want them to choose the combined company, we want on both sides, Marsh & McLennan people and JLT people. And so we have to create the environment as a combined leadership team that essentially fuses the culture and preserves and celebrates those parts of JLT's culture, which are different from Marsh & McLennan and makes them so unique and special. And I think that's the single most important factor. Now, having said that, within our deal model they are on a go forward basis. We're certainly going to develop some level of appropriate retention mechanism for a select group of very key individuals but it will not be widely applied.

Brian Meredith - UBS Securities LLC

Management

Great. Thank you. Daniel S. Glaser - Marsh & McLennan Cos., Inc.: Sure.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Daniel S. Glaser - Marsh & McLennan Cos., Inc.: Next question.

Operator

Operator

I'll now turn back to Mr. Dan Glaser, President and CEO of Marsh & McLennan Companies. Daniel S. Glaser - Marsh & McLennan Cos., Inc.: Thank you, operator. I'd like to thank everybody for joining us on the call this morning. Thank our clients for their support and our colleagues for their hard work and dedication in serving them. Hope everybody has a good day. Thank you very much.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, that will conclude today's conference call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.