Mike Hennigan
Analyst · JPMorgan. Your line is open. Please go ahead
Yes, Spiro, it's Mike. So the main reason that we don't try to guide to that is, we don't have control the volumes that come out of the system in general. We make our best guess at it. I think you're referencing, last quarter, Pam gave a little bit of a – of the banks of the river, and that is how we think about it. So, we're obviously happy when you know, we're seeing the markets the same way that the upstream side of the business does. But for our biggest challenges, we just don't control it. So I'll tell you, we keep a look at those things. We think about scenarios. And then we step back, and we concentrate on the things that we do control. So, we've had a lot of emphasis recently on cost reductions. And I think you're seeing that in our – in our earnings year-on-year. At the same time, we're very cognizant of, what are the scenarios that can play out for cash? And like, a couple of the questions that were asked earlier is, we're evaluating how the capital is going to play itself out through the year. As Pam said, we're still committed to that guidance, Tim and his team are evaluating whether there's economic support for us to enable some of the projects. At the same time, we're going to keep the – the discipline pretty high on that, if it stays high, and we don't want to execute on those, we'll give that a little bit of time to percolate some more, and then use the cash for the other levers that we have. So – so you're right, in that, we think about scenarios, and we think about, what if everything goes our way? And then, we also think about, what if things don't go our way? I mean our goal Spiro is to try and be as transparent, to the market as we can. We try and talk about not just the good things, but the risks that are out there. We've said, we have two risks that, people are very aware of, example, and what's going to play out in that regard. Again, we don't control it, but we try and scenario plan around it to sort of high plains pipeline is another risk that we have out there that, again, we have our opinion of the way it's going to play itself out. But we don't control it. So that's kind of the process going back to the very first question of how do we think about this – this excess cash, I think we're in a good position, it's the place we want it to be, where we have these choices and levers. And then we try and take our best inputs as to all the information we have, at the time, we see how the market plays itself out. Obviously, everybody's pretty excited about, the rollout of vaccines and the impact that that's starting to have on the economy. And, you we are too, at the same time, we're still, gasoline demand in the US is still less than it was pre-pandemic, roughly 5%, somewhere in that range. And then it varies regionally, it's still lower in the West Coast that was, impacted more by the pandemics and say, some of the other regions. So, we're just like everybody, have tempered optimism towards recovery. But at the same time, we just got to be careful about the data. We don't want to get in front of ourselves. And I think you hit it on the head, I've been trying to explain this concept of scenario planning and some probabilities and then we're just trying to make the best decision as we can, on a real-time basis. So I hope that gives you a little more flavors to how we're thinking about it. We don't control that exact up, that upstream number. We watch it. We trend. We talked to our customers, et cetera, et cetera. And then – and then the reality just like everybody, those companies are doing the best they can on a quarter-to-quarter basis just like we are. Does that help you at all?