Earnings Labs

Molina Healthcare, Inc. (MOH)

Q1 2009 Earnings Call· Wed, Apr 29, 2009

$195.81

+5.58%

Key Takeaways · AI generated
AI summary not yet generated for this transcript. Generation in progress for older transcripts; check back soon, or browse the full transcript below.

Same-Day

+10.52%

1 Week

+13.37%

1 Month

+23.18%

vs S&P

+14.73%

Transcript

Operator

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by, and welcome to the Molina Healthcare’s first quarter conference call. During the presentation, all participants will be in a listen-only mode. Afterwards, we will conduct a question-and-answer session. (Operator instructions) I would now like to turn the conference over to Juan Jose Orellana, Vice President of Investor Relations. Juan José Orellana: Hello, everyone, and thank you for joining us. The purpose of this call is to discuss Molina Healthcare's financial results for the first quarter ended March 31, 2009. The company's earnings release reporting its results was issued today after the market closed and is now posted for viewing on our company website. On the call with me today are several members of our executive team; Dr. Mario Molina, our CEO; John Molina, our CFO; Terry Bayer, our COO; Dr. James Howatt, our Chief Medical Officer; and Joseph White, our Chief Accounting Officer. After the completion of our prepared remarks, we will open the call and take your questions. I also would like to remind you that our comments today contain numerous forward-looking statements under the Safe Harbor provisions of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act. All of our forward-looking statements are based on our current expectations and assumptions that are subject to numerous risks, uncertainties, and other factors that could cause our actual results to differ materially. A description of such risk factors can be found in our earnings release, our 10-K annual report, and our 10-Q quarterly reports filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission. These reports can be accessed under the Investor Relations tab of our company website or on the SEC's website. All forward-looking statements made during today's call represent our judgment as of April 29, 2009, and we disclaim any obligation to update such statements. This call…

Dr. Mario Molina

CEO

Hello everyone, and thank you for joining us today. We are pleased to report another quarter of solid financial results. Highlights from the first quarter include diluted EPS of $0.46 versus $0.44 a year ago, membership that grew by 10% when compared to the first quarter of 2008, and also premium revenues that increased by 18% year over year. Our first quarter results exceeded consensus expectations and are clearly a positive towards our financial objectives for the full year. John will review the details of our financial performance in a few minutes, but needless to day, this was a good quarter under any circumstances, but especially when you consider the environment we’re dealing with today. Rising unemployment is expected to increase the number of people eligible for Medicaid. While this growth in the number of Medicaid beneficiaries represents a tailwind for our business, it must be weighed within the context of state budgetary constraints, rising medical costs, and lower interest rates, all of which can have the short-term effect of shrinking margins. However, I believe that one of the keys to delivering the type of results we published today even in a challenging economic environment is the focus of our team. Throughout the first quarter, our team has maintained its focus on building on the momentum from 2008, while the positioning the company for success in 2009 and beyond. We remain committed to be prudent stewards of public funds, a hallmark of our company, to managing our medical costs and to improving our capital allocation. All of these efforts relate back to our basic strategy, and we’re very pleased with the outcomes. Our management efforts have resulted in a strong core business. Except for California, most of our health plans performed well in the first quarter of 2009. We’re encouraged…

John Molina

CFO

As Mario noted, we’re pleased with our first quarter results. Net income of $12.2 million was only slightly less than last year’s $12.5 million. Earnings per share actually increased to $0.46 per share from $0.44 per share. We owe this success to increased enrollment, careful capital management, and tight administrative cost control. It is worth nothing that if investment income had not fallen by about $4 million between Q1 of 2008 and Q1 of 2009, EPS would have been another $0.09 higher this quarter. This means the results from our underlying operations are stronger this year than they were a year ago. Enrollment grew by 2.4% between December and March even without the benefit of our Florida market entry. This enrollment growth which was consistent with our announced guidance for 2009 enabled us to overcome a slight increase in our medical care ratio compared to 2008. Even with the slight increase in our medical care ratio, we were able to grow our medical margin by 16% year over year. We took advantage of equity market conditions to continue the repurchase of both our common shares and our senior convertible debt. This focus on capital allocation allowed us to increase earnings per share in the first quarter despite the $3.9 million decrease in investment income I mentioned a minute ago. Finally, tight control of administrative costs again consistent with our announced guidance for 2009 allowed us to leverage our enrollment growth and reduce our core general and administrative expenses to 7.6% of total revenue. Nearly all of our health plans—Michigan, Missouri, Ohio, Texas, Utah, and Washington—performed well. The improvement at our Ohio health plan is particularly satisfying. That improvement represents the culmination of three years of efforts to bring both effective and cost-efficient health care to members there. We’re especially pleased…

Dr. James Howatt

Management

Molina Healthcare is closely following the developing situation around a possible flu pandemic and actively taking steps so that we are fully prepared for whatever may develop. As you’re likely aware, there has been international spread of a new and unique flu strain that appears to have first emerged in Mexico. With over 150 deaths reported thus far, the strain clearly has lethal potential. We’re preparing in two ways—one way with regards to our members and one way in regards to our personnel. First, we’re working closely with public health agencies in the spirit of cooperation and collaboration that will lead to the most effective intervention. All our state plans are reviewing their programs to ensure access to care and pharmaceuticals as appropriate should this outbreak progress. In addition, we’re working to ensure business continuity in an environment where a significant portion of our workforce may fall ill, be absent for their positions, caring for ill family members, or asked to stay home as part of a strategy of social distancing. The work we’ve done previously in the face of the threat from avian flu we believe will greatly assist us in our current preparations. The overall likely impact on our health costs from this virus is currently uncertain. There are two antiviral medications, Tamiflu and Relenza which appear to be effective against the virus. Vaccines are also being developed. Cost to treat and eventually vaccinate against the flu will likely be substantial and will probably be borne in part by government programs. Molina Healthcare is prepared to be an active participant and partner to the overall healthcare systems of the states in which we manage care for our members. All of us should keep in mind the important behaviors that will help minimize the spread of the virus—wash hands frequently, avoid touching eyes, mouth, and nose, stay home when you or family members are ill, avoid contact with ill people, cover coughs and sneezes, and practice good health habits including adequate rest and nutrition. This concludes our prepared remarks. Operator, we are now ready to take questions.

Operator

Operator

(Operator instructions) Our first question comes from the line of Tom Carroll – Stifel Nicolaus. Tom Carroll – Stifel Nicolaus: I wondered if you could give us a little more commentary on the ABD program in Ohio that saw the sizeable sequential drop in the medical loss ratio. A competitor of yours in the same market had a similar drop, and I’m wondering if there was a sizeable possible development in the quarter or something else that you could maybe tell us a little bit more about.

John Molina

CFO

No, Tom. It wasn’t a sizeable development. I think the ABD is where we had probably the biggest swings in terms of some of the contracting efforts. Also, as you recall, last year we brought the behavior health in house, and the majority of those costs were for the ABD population.

Terry Bayer

Analyst · Greg Nersessian with Credit Suisse

Tom, I’ll just add that our ABD enrollment grew toward the latter part of last year. We had members new for the first time, and as we implemented our program, some of those costs came out, but our contract renegotiation and our medical management efforts were really across both product lines. Tom Carroll – Stifel Nicolaus: Secondly, could you maybe give us some comment on your reserving practices, which will probably be a similar conversation like we had in the past, but it’s just been a topic of discussion recently with Molina.

Dr. Mario Molina

CEO

Reserving methods haven’t changed, Tom.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Joshua Raskin – Barclays Capital. Joshua Raskin – Barclays Capital: With Florida, how are you accruing medical expenses now that you’re live on risk basis there?

Joseph White

Analyst · Stifel Nicolaus

Like we’ve talked about before, we’re just accruing those at 90% of premium until the claims have had time to develop. Joshua Raskin – Barclays Capital: I noticed there was a slight deviation from that. That was the only reason I asked. Is there something in the math that makes that…

Joseph White

Analyst · Stifel Nicolaus

Yes. It’s just the way the math worked out frankly. No real change in facts as we know them. Joshua Raskin – Barclays Capital: The $0.04 gain in the quarter, is that now included in the guidance and should we think about there being some 4-cent offset adverse with California or something, or should we just think about, look, we’ve got a 20-cent range, it’s 4 cents. Maybe we’ll be towards the higher end now or something like that?

John Molina

CFO

You hit the nail on the head Josh. That’s exactly why we give a pretty broad range. Joshua Raskin – Barclays Capital: So, not necessarily will be towards the high end, but rather that’s why we give a big range?

John Molina

CFO

That’s correct. The latter part, and that’s why we give a high range. We’re not going to adjust guidance or pull anything out or put in anything back right now. Joshua Raskin – Barclays Capital: On California, obviously it’s a challenge there, and I guess I’m just curious in light of the heightened MLR, the prospect that isn’t particularly great from a budget perspective there, is the plan profitable, and then in terms of remediation, you guys are really patient I think in Ohio, and that’s clearly shown benefits this year, but is this sort of a 3-year plan to get it to adequate margins? Is that a reasonable timeframe, or can things be done quicker there? I know obviously you have a lot more infrastructure there.

Dr. Mario Molina

CEO

Well, we’re certainly hoping that things will turn around in California more quickly than 3 years. We have benefited from the experience in Ohio, and we’re taking a similar approach in California, and it’s really a combination of things. We need to work with the state on the premium rates. We need to be more selective in our contracting, and we need to continue working on utilization of services, and it’s pretty straight forward. Part of this came about because we have not gotten, I don’t think, the rate increases that we really needed given the rising medical costs in California, so that has had an effect on the margins. Joshua Raskin – Barclays Capital: Maybe I’ll ask you in a different way, Mario. How patient are you going to be with the state?

Dr. Mario Molina

CEO

Well, as we pointed out, California is the largest Medicaid market in the country in terms of numbers. It’s the second largest in terms of dollars, and so we think that this is a very important market for us to be in.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of John Rex – J.P. Morgan. John Rex – J.P. Morgan: On the Washington, I know you had a couple of rate cuts there in the 1Q, but MCR held in very steady. Anything going on there? In particular, shouldn’t we expect that to be trending up here in light of the rate cuts at some point?

John Molina

CFO

John, I think part of the rate cut was based on some provider cuts that flowed through, so I wouldn’t expect it to trend up too much.

Joseph White

Analyst · Stifel Nicolaus

I would just add remember that that rate cut came in two steps—1% on January 1, another roughly 2.5% which was as John mentioned partly offset by provider cuts on February 1, so these financials don’t show the full impact of the cuts yet. John Rex – J.P. Morgan: Are you suggesting also that the flow through was aligned in terms of the rate decrease actuarially reflected, so that there was complete pass through to providers?

Joseph White

Analyst · Stifel Nicolaus

John, it’s not going to be complete pass-through, but we’re trying to take other efforts to mitigate looking at utilization, looking at provider contracts to see where we can maximize the provider contracts and have most favorable rates to us.

John Molina

CFO

Also John, let me just add that two other things that we’re working on in terms of medical management this year that Jim has been talking a lot about is our effort to decrease readmissions on the DRGs and our continuing work on lowering emergency room utilization. John Rex – J.P. Morgan: On the Florida startup, just maybe some commentary on how that’s going. At the investor day I think you said you were 23,000 a couple of months ago, and I think you ended the quarter at 17 or something like that, and I guess we had been looking for it to maybe actually grow. Just a little commentary on that maybe.

Terry Bayer

Analyst · Greg Nersessian with Credit Suisse

Let’s talk about it in two parts—the first is that you’ll see that we have experienced a drop in that initial enrollment. Most of that is attributed to members switching back to the fee for service provider side which is still in place, because the managed care is not mandatory at this time, but secondly, we’re still rolling in the other counties, so we expect to still achieve the year-end target that we projected as these counties roll in, but initially we did see a drop by those transferring back into the fee for service program. John Rex – J.P. Morgan: So what would’ve been your gross add in the quarter to think about what kind of retention you’re having as you bring them in?

John Molina

CFO

It’s difficult to say because it’s really too soon for us to know what the overall attrition rate is going to be. John Rex – J.P. Morgan: I was wondering maybe if we started at 23 in January and would have been 35, so like essentially opted out of the system or so roughly.

John Molina

CFO

It depends a lot on how the rollover goes, and we’re still in that process, so until we get to a more stable point where all the members have been transferred over as we go into more counties, it’s really too soon to say.

Terry Bayer

Analyst · Greg Nersessian with Credit Suisse

And I’ll give you one other variable. These are different geographic areas that are rolling in, so the initial area was Dade County, but as we move on to the other counties, that could have a completely different percentage in relation to the providers in the network, the attitude of the members, etc., so it’s really difficult to predict.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Justin Bowers – Deutsche Bank. Justin Bowers – Deutsche Bank: I was just curious if you could give us a sense of how your enrollment has progressed since quarter end just given that the economy does seem to be weakening a little bit and if you’re seeing a noticeable pick-up in any states.

John Molina

CFO

All I would say at this point is that the enrollment growth is consistent with the guidance we provided, and we remain on track. Justin Bowers – Deutsche Bank: Relative to Florida, do you have a target for you enrollment there for year end?

Joseph White

Analyst · Stifel Nicolaus

The target is 50,000. Justin Bowers – Deutsche Bank: DCPs and claims inventory were up sequentially. Should we think about 42 or 40 as a floor? Have you pretty much bottomed out there?

Joseph White

Analyst · Stifel Nicolaus

I think it’s probably fair to say that the DCP is going to hand around where it’s at right now. We closed the quarter at 42. It’s not going to get up much or very far below that number, barring something unforeseen.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Carl Mcdonald – Oppenheimer. Carl Mcdonald – Oppenheimer: Just wanted to check to see if you had an updated view in terms of the impact of new membership. It may still be a little bit early in terms of actually seeing those members joining the plan, but there was the question in some prior quarters in terms of where there’d be an increased amount of utilization initially.

John Molina

CFO

I think it’s probably too early to tell. Traditionally, new members tend to have higher utilization, higher costs, and then they go down after about 2 quarters, the compacting factor of it being the first quarter where seasonality suggests that utilization was higher than normal anyways, so it’s a bit early to tell.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Darren Miller – Goldman Sachs. Darren Miller – Goldman Sachs: I have a question on the Ohio MCR. Given the seasonality we typically see in the first quarter, do you think we can actually see some improvement in the MCR going into the second and third quarter?

Dr. Mario Molina

CEO

We hate to peg the MCRs, Darren. It’s going to be a functioning of maintaining good utilization management and then ensuring that we direct the patients to the most cost effective providers.

Joseph White

Analyst · Stifel Nicolaus

The other that makes it difficult is that we haven’t really had a stable population. I mean over the past year we had a lot of new patients being rolled in, so we’re finally I think reaching a stable equilibrium where we can begin to see what the seasonal trends look like in Ohio. Daryn Miller – Goldman Sachs: Question on SG&A leverage. How much more improvement do you guys think you can see there?

Dr. Mario Molina

CEO

If you go back to our first investor day, we had discussed having about a 10% “organic growth” and bringing our admin down to about 7.5%, and for this quarter, we’re 7.6%, so we’re right on around where we want to be. Daryn Miller – Goldman Sachs: Expectations in terms of picking up any SCHIP enrollment, what states do you think you have the best opportunity to get some of that enrollment and have you gotten anything so far?

Dr. Mario Molina

CEO

Well, California is the state that has the biggest SCHIP population for us. In some states such as New Mexico and Ohio, the SCHIP is sort of buried within the Medicaid, so you really don’t see it separated it out. We think we are well positioned in all the states that we’re in to pick up additional membership as it comes on. Daryn Miller – Goldman Sachs: What states do you think are going to come on sooner or first?

John Molina

CFO

I don’t think you can say that there is any one state that’s more likely than the others. I think the program is nationwide. The economic downturn is affecting all states, and part of this will depend on state’s willingness to invest more money in the CHIP program because it is matching program. Daryn Miller – Goldman Sachs: Can you just remind me where we are in terms of your rate activity and what were the last changes that were made in California rates?

Terry Bayer

Analyst · Greg Nersessian with Credit Suisse

As we shared with you at our investor day in January, there have really been no changes since then. We took a rate reduction in Los Angeles in October ’08. That continues through October ’09. Riverside, San Bernardino, and then San Diego had increases in October ’08 and back in 07/08, and our Sacramento rate increase is still pending, so no change from January 22nd.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Greg Nersessian with Credit Suisse. Greg Nersessian – Credit Suisse: I just had one on the Michigan and Missouri RFPs. Could you just give us an update on the timing in both of those states, maybe any changes that either of those states are considering and your view on whether or not you see that as an opportunity to take share, status quo, or perhaps lose share in each of those states.

Terry Bayer

Analyst · Greg Nersessian with Credit Suisse

I’ll start with the facts of submissions, and then others may want to comment. In Missouri, we are awaiting news of the results of that RFP. It has been submitted, and we’ve returned comments. We are confident that as an incumbent we’ll continue, but we’ll know about that shortly, and the Michigan RFP is in process. We’re in the process of putting together a response, and that’ll be for an October 1 effective date as is Missouri for an October 1 effective date.

Dr. Mario Molina

CEO

There are no big programmatic changes that should effect enrollment significantly. Greg Nersessian – Credit Suisse: Any sense on the number of other bidders or any new market entrance going after those?

Dr. Mario Molina

CEO

We’re not seeing anything, but that doesn’t mean that there won’t be. Greg Nersessian – Credit Suisse: Any other rate activity going on either in Michigan or any of your other states worth highlighting?

John Molina

CFO

I don’t think there been any change since the investor day in January. No new news.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Matt Perry with Wachovia Capital Markets. Matt Perry – Wachovia Capital Markets: At some point in ’09 as a lot of people who have lost their jobs may begin to qualify for Medicaid programs in various states, is this a population when they may enroll in your plan, would expect their behavior and utilization patterns to be very similar to your current membership or would there be any reason why they might utilize more or less services?

Dr. Mario Molina

CEO

I think going back to what John said earlier, we typically see higher utilization in the first 6 months on the plan, pretty much regardless of the A category, so we don’t think that the pattern of utilization is really going to change, and we think that we are already seeing that because we’ve seen growth in 2008, which is continuing in 2009 consistent with the downturn in the economy and the increase in the number of Medicaid beneficiaries. Matt Perry – Wachovia Capital Markets: I know the Medicaid population has little or no cost sharing or co-pays, but is there any recession-related changes you’d expect in your current membership’s behavior patterns at all?

Dr. Mario Molina

CEO

No.

Operator

Operator

(Operator Instructions) Your next question is a followup from the line of Tom Carroll with Stifel Nicolaus. Tom Carroll – Stifel Nicolaus: A quick followup related to Greg’s question as well. Did you guys evaluate the Mississippi RFP looking at the chronically ill population at all?

John Molina

CFO

You know, Tom, it is our practice not to comment on potential growth opportunities whether they be new RFPs or acquisitions. Tom Carroll – Stifel Nicolaus: Secondly, you guys are in Texas, not one of your biggest markets, but did you see or have you been able to tease out any higher level of claim activity related to the flu given the high prevalence of the flu in Texas this year?

Joseph White

Analyst · Stifel Nicolaus

Nothing that we’re aware of. Nothing we’ve come across. No.

Operator

Operator

Mr. Molina, there are no further questions at this time. I will now turn the call back to you.

Dr. Mario Molina

CEO

Thank you very much. We appreciate you participating on our call, and we look forward to seeing you at our next investor day in May in New York.

Operator

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, that does conclude today’s conference call. We thank you for your participation, and we ask that you please disconnect your lines.