Howard Willard
Analyst · Bank of America Merrill Lynch
Thank you, Mike. Good morning, everyone. Before I begin, let me take a moment to introduce myself. I have been with the Altria family of companies since 1992, and have held leadership positions across the organization in finance, sales, information services, compliance and corporate responsibility. Most recently, I led our Strategy and Business Development group, where I had responsibility for the acquisition and integration of Middleton, USSTC and Ste. Michelle. I look forward to meeting many of you at our investor day next week. The Cigarette segment reported solid operating companies' income results in 2010. Last year, the Cigarette segment's reported operating companies' income increased by 7.8% to $5.5 billion, due primarily to higher list prices, lower restructuring costs and promotional spending, as well as higher cost savings from its manufacturing optimization program. These factors were partially offset by lower volume and higher FDA user fees. Excluding restructuring charges, adjusted Cigarette segment's operating companies' income grew by 4.5% to $5.6 billion. PM U.S.A. grew 2010 adjusted operating companies' income by expanding its adjusted Cigarette segment's operating margins by 1.6 percentage points to 38.3%. PM U.S.A.'s reported cigarette shipment volume decline 5.3% for the full year, but was down an estimated 6% when adjusted primarily for trade inventory changes. PM U.S.A. estimates that the total cigarette category's adjusted volumes decline 5% last year, which is in line with historical price elasticity of negative 0.3%. The Cigarette category's estimated volume decline rate was 7% in the first half of the year, as the category lapped the FET related pricing actions, which occurred in the first half of 2009 and 4% in the second half of 2010. Marlboro performed very well last year, as it grew its full year retail share of the Cigarette category by 8/10 of a share point to 42.6%. Marlboro had balanced retail share growth, as its non-menthol business grew half a share point to 36.6% and its Menthol business grew 3/10 of a share point to 6%. Marlboro's strong retail share growth largely offset retail share declines from the balance of PM U.S.A.'s brand portfolio. PM U.S.A.'s 2010 retail share of the Cigarette category was down 1/10 of a share point, 49.8%. The Cigarette segment's operating companies' income, shipment volume and retail share results in the fourth quarter were impacted by trade inventory changes and differentials in retail pricing around the list price increases taken by some cigarette manufacturers in the quarter. In the fourth quarter of 2010, reported Cigarette segment's operating companies' income was up 7.4% to $1.2 billion. Excluding restructuring costs, the cigarette segment's fourth quarter adjusted operating companies' income grew by 1% to $1.2 billion. PM U.S.A.'s reported fourth quarter cigarette shipment volume declined by 7%, but when adjusted primarily for changes in trade inventories, declined an estimated 6%. This volume decline rate exceeded the estimated fourth quarter cigarette category decline rate of 4% due to moderate retail share losses in the quarter for PM U.S.A.'s cigarette brand portfolio. Marlboro's fourth quarter retail share grew by 6/10 of a share point to 42.3%. Continuing momentum from the Marlboro Special Blend products launched earlier in 2010, as well as the introduction of Marlboro Skyline Menthol in the fourth quarter contributed to these strong retail share results. Marlboro's retail share gains largely offset retail share declines in the balance of PM U.S.A.'s cigarette portfolio. PM U.S.A.'s retail share in the fourth quarter of 2010 was down 2/10 of a share point to 49.2%. The Smokeless Products segment had strong financial results for both the full year and fourth quarter of 2010. Reported Smokeless Products segment's operating companies' income for 2010 grew over 100% to $803 million. Excluding restructuring and acquisition related costs, 2010 adjusted operating companies' income for the Smokeless Products segment grew 30.9% to $827 million. In the fourth quarter, USSTC and PM U.S.A. reduced promotional activities, and allowed trade inventories to adjust and stabilize as ALS&D implemented its enhanced retail platform in about 60,000 stores. These activities impacted the adjusted operating companies' income margins, shipment volume, and retail share results for the Smokeless Products segment in the quarter. Reported Smokeless Products segment's income for the fourth quarter grew over 100% to $217 million. Excluding restructuring and acquisition-related costs, fourth quarter adjusted operating companies' income for the Smokeless Products segment increased 63.5% to $224 million. In 2010, USSTC and PM U.S.A.'s adjusted smokeless products volume growth exceeded the Smokeless Products category's estimated growth rate of 7%. Reported Smokeless Products shipment volume increased by 12.2% last year, but when adjusted primarily for trade inventory changes and new product pipeline volume, was estimated to be up 8%. In the fourth quarter, reported Smokeless Products shipment volume increased by 2.5%, but when adjusted primarily for trade inventory changes and new product pipeline volume, was estimated to be up 7%. USSTC estimates that the Smokeless Products category grew 6% in the fourth quarter 2010. USSTC and PM U.S.A. grew their combined full year retail share of the Smokeless Products category by 7/10 of a share point to 55.3%. Copenhagen's strong retail share gains of two share points for the full year more than offset Skoal's retail share declines, and was a principal driver of overall retail share growth. In the fourth quarter, USSTC and PM U.S.A.'s retail share of the Smokeless Products category declined 1/10 of a share point to 54.5%. Copenhagen grew its fourth quarter retail share by 1.1 share points to 25.7% behind the continuing marketplace momentum from its new product launches. Skoal's fourth quarter retail share declined by 1.6 share points to 21.7%. USSTC expects Skoal's performance to improve in 2011 due to planned brand building initiatives and new product launches. Reporting Cigar segment's operating companies' income, for the full year and fourth quarter, declined by 5.1% to $167 million and 43.2% to $21 million, respectively. When adjusted for integration costs, adjusted Cigar segment's operating companies' income for the full year declined by 8.6% to $169 million and 43.6% to $22 million for the fourth quarter. Adjusted Cigar segment's operating companies' income declined in both periods largely due to promotional investments made by Middleton in response to competitive dynamics in the marketplace. Middleton's 2010 reported cigar shipment volume declined by 1%, and when adjusted for changes in trade inventories, declined by an estimated 4%. In the fourth quarter of 2010, reported cigar shipment volume was essentially unchanged and when adjusted for changes in trade inventories, declined by an estimated 1%. The primary driver of volume declines in both periods was retail share losses on Black & Mild. Middleton estimates that the machine-made large cigar category grew by 2% in 2010 and approximately 4% in the fourth quarter of 2010. Black & Mild's full year retail share of the machine-made Large Cigar category declined by 1.3 share points to 28.5%. For the fourth quarter of 2010, Black & Mild's retail share declined by 1.5 share points to 29.1%. Black & Mild's retail share declines in both periods were driven primarily by increased competitive activity. Black & Mild's successful brand building efforts, which included the launch of Black & Mild Royale last summer, helped the brand return to sequential retail share growth. The brand's second half of 2010 retail share was 1.2 share points higher than the first half of 2010. The Wine segment reported strong operating companies' income and volume results in 2010. The Wine segment's reported operating companies' income increased by 41.9% to $61 million for the full year of 2010 and by 42.9% to $30 million for the fourth quarter. Excluding restructuring and acquisition-related costs, adjusted operating companies' income for the Wine segment increased by 13.7% to $83 million for the full year, and by 23.3% to $37 million for the fourth quarter. Ste. Michelle's 2010 wine shipments grew by 10.8% in the fourth quarter and 11.3% for the full year. The Financial Services segment's reported operating companies' income for 2010 declined by $113 million to $157 million, due primarily to lower gains on asset sales. For the fourth quarter of 2010, the Financial Services segment's reported operating companies' income increased by $60 million to $70 million, due primarily to higher gains on asset sales and asset impairment and exit costs in 2009. Mike and I will now be happy to take your questions. While the calls are compiled, let me cover a few housekeeping items. Marlboro's price gap versus the lowest effective priced cigarette was 35% in the fourth quarter and 34% for the full year. Marlboro's net pack price in the fourth quarter was $5.66, and for the full year was $5.55, while the lowest effective priced cigarette was $4.20 in the fourth quarter and $4.14 for the full year. The cigarette discount category's fourth quarter retail share was 27.9%, and was 27.4% for the full year. The estimated weighted average cigarette state excise tax at the end of the fourth quarter was $1.36 per pack. Copenhagen's fourth quarter net retail price was $4.25, and its price gap versus the leading discount brand was approximately 39% in the quarter. For the full year, Copenhagen's net retail price was $4.20, and its price gap versus the leading discount brand was 41%. As of January 1, 2011, 20 states in the District of Columbia used a weight-based smokeless tobacco excise tax system, representing approximately 32% of the Smokeless Tobacco category's volume. And CapEx was $52 million and $168 million for the fourth quarter and full year of 2010, respectively. And ongoing depreciation and amortization was $68 million and $276 million for the fourth quarter and full year time periods, respectively. Operator, do we have any questions?