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Monro, Inc. (MNRO)

Q3 2015 Earnings Call· Tue, Jan 27, 2015

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Monro Muffler Brakes Earnings Conference Call for the Third Quarter of Fiscal 2015. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. Later, we will conduct a question-and-answer session and instructions will follow at that time. [Operator Instructions] And as a reminder, ladies and gentlemen, this conference call is being recorded and may not be reproduced in whole or in part without permission from the Company. I’d now like to introduce Ms. Effie Veres of FTI Consulting. Please go ahead.

Effie Veres

Analyst

Thank you. Hello, everyone, and thank you for joining us on this morning’s call. I’d just like to remind you that on this morning’s call management may reiterate forward-looking statements made in today’s release. In accordance with the Safe Harbor provisions of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995, I’d like to call your attention to the risks and uncertainties related to these statements, which are more fully described in the press release and the Company’s filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission. These risks and uncertainties include, but are not necessarily limited to, uncertainties affecting retail generally such as consumer confidence and demand for auto repair, risks relating to leverage and debt service, including sensitivity to fluctuations in interest rates, dependence on and competition within the primary markets in which the Company’s stores are located and the need for and costs associated with store renovations and other capital expenditures. The Company undertakes no obligation to release publicly any revisions to these forward-looking statements that may be made to reflect events or circumstances after the date hereof or to reflect the occurrence to unanticipated events. The inclusion of any statement in this call does not constitute an admission by Monro or any other person that the events or circumstances described in such statements are material. Joining us for this morning’s call from management are John Van Heel, President and Chief Executive Officer; Cathy D’Amico, Chief Financial Officer; and Rob Gross, Executive Chairman. With these formalities out of the way, I’d like to turn the call over to John van Hell. John, you may begin.

John Van Heel

Analyst

Thanks, Effie. Good morning and thank you for joining us on today’s call. We are pleased that you’re with us to discuss our third quarter fiscal 2015 performance. I’ll start today with a review of our results for the quarter and first nine months and an update on our key initiatives. Then, I’ll provide our outlook for the remainder of the fiscal year. I’ll then turn the call over to Cathy D’Amico, our Chief Financial Officer, who will provide additional details on our financial results. In the third quarter, we delivered record sales in earnings results, despite the milder weather in December and a choppy sales environment. The $0.49 in EPS we reported this quarter represents a 40% increase over the past two years and slightly negative comparable store sales. We believe this is a testament to Monro’s flexible business model, which allows us to grow the Company’s earnings in both stronger and weaker markets. The outperformance of our acquisitions and improvement in gross margin enabled us to achieve solid earnings results, despite lapping significantly lower product costs and the benefit of favorable lease accounting and tax adjustments in the third quarter last year. Our third quarter comparable store sales decreased 1.8%. Through November our comparable store sales were positive with October down 2% and November up 4%, as we benefited from more normalized weather patterns across our markets. However, this was more than offset by negative 9% comparable store sales in December amidst very mild weather in the holiday shopping season. Additionally, we continue to see many of our customers defer purchases, particularly on large ticket items and trade down from higher cost maintenance and repairs. Despite this consumer spending environment, we’re encouraged by the moment we’ve seen in key service categories in fiscal 2015. Comparable store sales were…

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] And we’ll take our first question from Bret Jordan with BB&T Capital Markets.

Bret Jordan

Analyst

Hi, good morning guys. Catherine D’Amico: Good morning.

John Van Heel

Analyst

Good morning.

Bret Jordan

Analyst

A quick question, as we look at the new stores that have been added in the further south markets. Could you give us any feeling sort of, what the impact on operating efficiency has been with some of those longer supply chains, and sort of maybe what it did for basis points in the third quarter?

John Van Heel

Analyst

Yes, I mean, generally you’re looking at a couple of 100 basis points difference in the overall material and distribution cost.

Bret Jordan

Analyst

buying:

John Van Heel

Analyst

Its -- the ones we added in December and, I think we need to be closer to triple digits to be really thinking about putting a significant facility down there.

Bret Jordan

Analyst

Okay. And then as we look at the current quarter and I -- no, go ahead.

John Van Heel

Analyst

No, go ahead, Bret.

Bret Jordan

Analyst

As we look at the current quarter you talked about expectations of some retail price inflation in the near-term. In your comp forecast what is your assumption on import tire pricing in the current quarter?

John Van Heel

Analyst

On import tire pricing, I’m assuming to get some help in February and March. I’m not going to give a specific number related to that. We said in the second quarter that based on what we were collecting at the end of September, if we compared that to the fourth quarter we would have been at plus 2 versus, in average selling price quarter-versus-quarter and we followed that up in Q3 with the highest average selling price for the year. So, I think that supports that, in the later half of this quarter we should see some of that benefit.

Bret Jordan

Analyst

Okay. Then one last question, on the inventory cap you were talking about $12 million between new stores and tires. Could you breakout what was tires versus new stores? And I guess, would we expect to see that tire inventory build covert back to cash if things normalize around tariff frontline?

John Van Heel

Analyst

I think you would see that covert back to cash in fiscal 2016, so that -- that should occur, and no, we don’t break it out, tires versus other.

Bret Jordan

Analyst

All right. Thanks.

John Van Heel

Analyst

Okay. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

We’ll take our next question from Rick Nelson with Stephens.

Richard Nelson

Analyst · Stephens.

Thanks. Good morning. [Indiscernible] tariff probably late November, and submit your [indiscernible] anti-dumping tariff came in January. How much did you raise tire prices in the third quarter? What have you seen fourth quarter today’s. Or are quarter-to-date?

John Van Heel

Analyst · Stephens.

We raised tire prices in the third quarter a couple of percent. The anti-dumping -- the November tariff was the smaller of the two. And again for the fourth quarter I would expect to see more of the benefit to the later half of the quarter now that competitors have -- had the actual amounts that the costs are going to up. Just to put that in context, we have maintained our -- a couple of dollars more than the market tire pricing stance. So, throughout the third quarter we continue to maintain that. So, I would expect us to be kind of following the market up as it goes, and I would think that would occur now that the news is out, in the later part of this quarter.

Richard Nelson

Analyst · Stephens.

Well, thanks. But how its going to [indiscernible] Chinese tire prices and for domestic manufactures followed, are you seeing [indiscernible].

John Van Heel

Analyst · Stephens.

Your question was, the last tariff we saw the brand did go up along with the Chinese and what our expectation is this time?

Richard Nelson

Analyst · Stephens.

Yes, exactly.

John Van Heel

Analyst · Stephens.

So, given the nature of this tariff as I laid out in our comments, for the branded manufacturers who are not manufacturing in China, I would expect to see less increase activity this time because of the raw material environment, because of growing production for the U.S. and also because of the fact that they are potentially loosing market share to these economy tires. I think what we’ll see out of these manufacturers potentially is realignment of some of their lines to close the gaps between where their tires are positioned and these economy tires.

Richard Nelson

Analyst · Stephens.

Can you remind us what [indiscernible] out of the cost of goods sold per tire. I know it’s meaningful.

John Van Heel

Analyst · Stephens.

I don’t have that off-hand. I wouldn’t want to -- I mean, I know it is meaningful. I don’t want to give you a number here. I can definitely follow that up with you, Rick.

Richard Nelson

Analyst · Stephens.

Okay. Thanks.

John Van Heel

Analyst · Stephens.

I just don’t have that right here.

Richard Nelson

Analyst · Stephens.

So, finally -- let's [indiscernible] so about the pipeline on the acquisitions to the number of NDAs [indiscernible] used some of that in the prepared remarks.

John Van Heel

Analyst · Stephens.

Yes, I said we have 10 NDAs excluding the acquisition we expect to close this quarter, and that acquisition will add about $9 million in sales. It’s within our existing markets. The NDAs that we have are generally between 5 and 40 stores within our markets.

Richard Nelson

Analyst · Stephens.

Great. Thanks a lot, and good luck.

John Van Heel

Analyst · Stephens.

Thank you.

Operator

Operator

We’ll take our next question from Anthony Deem with KeyBanc.

Anthony Deem

Analyst · KeyBanc.

Hi, good morning.

John Van Heel

Analyst · KeyBanc.

Good morning. Catherine D’Amico: Good morning.

Anthony Deem

Analyst · KeyBanc.

So, a couple of questions here; first, as you wind down your Chinese imports, as raw material environment is increasingly favorable for tire manufacturers, that’s something you could presumably benefit from, I guess, I should we be thinking about one offsetting the other. In other words, did higher cogs from the tariff be offset by more favorable pricing from tire manufactures or net-net do you see tire costs in general going up next year?

John Van Heel

Analyst · KeyBanc.

We’ll update next years overall numbers when we give our guidance. But directionally I think, that is one of the significant differences between this tariff and last tariff, that raw material -- that declining raw material environment is significant. So, I expect there to be a much harder case for branded manufactures to make in raising their tire cost than previously.

Anthony Deem

Analyst · KeyBanc.

And so, with the comment on price mix on your tires turning positive in the fourth quarter here. We’re obviously seeing a decline in raws. Just wondering if at all, just seeing a lower cost of goods on your tires, and if at all that can affect the anticipated reversal of the pricing deflation that you anticipate in your same store guidance?

John Van Heel

Analyst · KeyBanc.

No, we are seeing lower tire cost this year. But the pricing, the retail pricing increases in terms of price mix are about what the replacing cost is of current inventory. That’s the way most dealers approach it us, when they know their costs are going up which the tariff does put some pressure on those costs, they begin to raise price of retail.

Anthony Deem

Analyst · KeyBanc.

Okay. And then, if I hear correctly that there is a 2% decline quarter-to-date in your same store sales?

John Van Heel

Analyst · KeyBanc.

Yes, on positive traffic.

Anthony Deem

Analyst · KeyBanc.

Okay. So, just a follow-up there. So your guidance reflects up 2%, is really just the price inflation or lack of deflation given you some confidence in outlook for, as we separate March here. Is that the primary driver to get it up 2%?

John Van Heel

Analyst · KeyBanc.

That’s a part of it, plus we’re up against down two comps in February and March. If we run up one for the last two months of the quarter, we’re at the -- we’re at the low end of our guidance. So, I felt like, with the tire pricing opportunity that there is and with those softer comps, that was reasonable.

Anthony Deem

Analyst · KeyBanc.

Okay. Then a couple more if I may. So with the anticipated $0.02 to $0.03 EPS headwind from the higher inventory in tires in the back half discussed last quarter. Just looking at inventory as a percentage of your cost of goods, it seems like it’s the lowest it’s been in the past four quarters. Is that a seasonal issue? Is that the broader issue that you all discussed or should we expect higher inventory to hit in fourth quarter?

John Van Heel

Analyst · KeyBanc.

No, I don’t think you can expect much higher inventory to hit in the fourth quarter. And certainly, we just came through the largest tire selling season of the year. So, our December inventory obviously reflects that. And as Cathy mentioned, we have been trimming other inventory in order to keep an overall handle on working capital.

Anthony Deem

Analyst · KeyBanc.

Okay. And then just last question for me, of the 10 NDAs that you signed, can you share the range of revenues? How small to how large might be the acquisitions be?

John Van Heel

Analyst · KeyBanc.

Yes, again generally they’re sized to 40 stores, and they’re primarily tire stores. So those would be in that $1.3 million range per store.

Anthony Deem

Analyst · KeyBanc.

Okay. Thank you very much.

John Van Heel

Analyst · KeyBanc.

Sure. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

And we’ll take our next question from James Albertine with Stifel.

James Albertine

Analyst · Stifel.

Good morning. Thanks for taking my question.

John Van Heel

Analyst · Stifel.

Sure.

James Albertine

Analyst · Stifel.

I apologize -- just for a quick house keeping item, I apologize if I missed it. But the monthly comps during the quarter; did you say those in the prepared remarks?

John Van Heel

Analyst · Stifel.

Yes. October was down 2%, November was up 4%, December was down 9%.

James Albertine

Analyst · Stifel.

I apologize for missing that. And then separately, we’ve talked historically about kind of a -- in a more North-East centric Monro portfolio something along the lines of 3x in terms of potential store count, and this is back when you were running something like 700 or 800 stores. Now that you’ve kind of grown into the Mid-Atlantic, the upper Mid-West and certainly the South-East, how should we think about your aggregate sort of target portfolio size? Should we kind of take that 3x and extrapolate from there or do you have any updates you’re willing to share at this point?

John Van Heel

Analyst · Stifel.

No, I don’t think we’re updating that. We continue to see something like 1,300 tire stores and 1,300 service stores throughout our 25 states, there is that kind of opportunity for density.

James Albertine

Analyst · Stifel.

Okay. And then, historically as well you talked sort of $0.08 to $0.10 as it relates to years two and three accretion from new stores. More recently last few quarters you’ve been saying $0.09 to $0.12. Understanding the lack of succession plans and quite frankly the bigger broader pressures on your competitive set -- your competitor set, is that really -- that additional accretion a function of lower valuations of deals or is there something that you’re deriving from a logistics perspective that’s helping you to sort of buy more accretion than you did historically?

John Van Heel

Analyst · Stifel.

The metrics that we’re using are remaining the same, 7 to 7.5 times EBITDA and picking up 800 to 1500 basis points of operating margin improvement. As there is more pressure on these smaller guys, we are tending to get more of that 800 -- that 800 and 1500 is coming through a little bit at the higher end generally. But also the $0.08 to $0.10 going to $0.09 to $0.12 reflects a larger company. So, you’re buying more stores and that’s generating more incremental income. So, the acquisition volume goes up, and so does the EPS.

James Albertine

Analyst · Stifel.

Very good. Thank you for clarifying and good luck in the fourth quarter.

John Van Heel

Analyst · Stifel.

Sure. Thank you. Catherine D’Amico: Thank you.

Operator

Operator

And we’ll take our next question from Michael Montani with Evercore ISI.

Michael Montani

Analyst · Evercore ISI.

Hi, guys. Thanks for taking my question. I wanted to ask about first off comp, ticket versus traffic in the third quarter with the 1.8% decline. Can you just tell us, what was traffic and what was ticket?

John Van Heel

Analyst · Evercore ISI.

Yes, traffic was the majority of that, about 1.5% which you would expect against the tire price mix flattened out in the quarter.

Michael Montani

Analyst · Evercore ISI.

Okay. And year-to-date is traffic actually still up now, or is it flat or down?

John Van Heel

Analyst · Evercore ISI.

Year-to-date traffic is slightly positive for the year. Yes.

Michael Montani

Analyst · Evercore ISI.

Okay. In the third quarter you mentioned that price of mix was roughly a neutral factor in terms of your tire comp dollars being down $0.03. Can you just give us the split of actually what the price did versus what mix was?

John Van Heel

Analyst · Evercore ISI.

So you had a mix shift, we gave you the percentage of direct import tires. So, you saw that mentioned 30 to 38 and that is -- that shift was offset by price increases.

Michael Montani

Analyst · Evercore ISI.

Okay. Because I was just thinking sequentially in the second quarter ASP that had 0.5, so is it fair to think maybe they could be up 1 or 1.5 this quarter or how should we think year-over-year?

Robert Gross

Analyst · Evercore ISI.

Yes, I think we commented that, we thought units would be flat in February and March and comps would be up too, which would be generated by a flip in price and inflationary raising prices in general on tires in light of what's going on.

Michael Montani

Analyst · Evercore ISI.

Okay. I’ll move on. Just the last two I had was, is there anyway to think about this quarters increase in price in terms of branded tires versus the Chinese tires, were both of those up a few points or can you just help us with that. And the last one I had was the mix of sales by category.

John Van Heel

Analyst · Evercore ISI.

Sure. The answer on branded versus import, yes they were both up. And second -- and your second question mix by category, brakes was 13%, exhaust was 3%, steering was 9%, tires was 49% and maintenance was 26%.

Michael Montani

Analyst · Evercore ISI.

Great. Thanks a lot guys.

John Van Heel

Analyst · Evercore ISI.

Thank you. Catherine D’Amico: Thank you.

Operator

Operator

And we have time for one more question. We’ll take our last question from Robert Higginbotham with SunTrust.

Robert Higginbotham

Analyst

Good morning, everyone. Thanks for the question. Catherine D’Amico: Good morning.

Robert Higginbotham

Analyst

So my question relates mainly to inventory, to the extent that your inventory grew pretty close to the overall revenue growth that as you stockpile import products, you said that you were funding some of those import purchased by lower branded purchases. So would you characterize your current branded tire inventories significantly in short such that you are starting to have to ramp up those purchases up?

John Van Heel

Analyst

No, we get very ready supply from branded manufacturers, so we’re able to manage that inventory pretty closely. We’ve made sure that all of our stores had plenty of tires to sell, and that’s allowed us to just manage the overall increasing inventory while investing in the pre-buys for the import tires.

Robert Higginbotham

Analyst

Okay. And then, so what you have and in terms of imports, how many months of supply do you have with those -- of that product now?

John Van Heel

Analyst

Yes, we haven’t broken out how many months of supply we have at any point during this, and I don’t think it helps for us to do that. I am 100% comfortable with the 5% to 10% increase year-over-year fiscal ’16 cost of sales versus fiscal ’15 that we’ve guided to, and the pre-buy in orders that we made and agreements we have with manufactures all play into that.

Robert Gross

Analyst

Yes, Robert, I mean, we borrowed 1%. So, if the domestic guys decide they want to sell stuff, we’re in a position to buy it and put whatever on the shelves we want to just like with the shifting production out of China, we’ll do the same on imported tires. It’s not a function when you carry $5 million extra of inventory and it cost you $50,000 to carry it for a year, I mean, its not something we worry about to the same extent you do.

Robert Higginbotham

Analyst

Well, to be clear, I’m less worried about what your cost to just store the product might be. I’m wondering, how long, how many quarters you can sell Chinese imports at a higher retail market price having funded it at a pre-tariff costs?

Robert Gross

Analyst

We said the first six months of 2016 to work through it, but that question is assuming that domestic guys aren’t going to make any adjustments, import guys aren’t going to make any adjustments. I mean, some of this is driven by what our competition does also. So, it’s a pretty long tale.

Robert Higginbotham

Analyst

Sure, fair enough. And then, so to make sure I understand the 5% to 10% cost increase that you’ve talked about for a while which is really helpful. That’s sounds like that is a fiscal ’16 number. What would the annualized number be based on the current post-tariff cost structure would be?

John Van Heel

Analyst

That is our estimate for the annual number for fiscal ’16 with post-tariff -- our post-tariff impacts incorporated over fiscal ’15.

Robert Higginbotham

Analyst

Well, I mean kind of more on a rolling 12 months, what's the full annual impact [indiscernible]?

John Van Heel

Analyst

You mean beyond fiscal ’16?

Robert Higginbotham

Analyst

Well, yes, beyond ’16 and really importantly beyond whatever beyond you working down your stockpile levels.

John Van Heel

Analyst

Yes. There is absolutely assumptions we made of costs beyond working down our existing inventory. That is all incorporated in the 5% to 10%. But as I have said, the most important -- we’re focused on fiscal ’16 not only because it’s the next fiscal year, but in the transit -- in the year that’s coming up, you’re going to have significant amount of sourcing shipping out of China into other non-tariff countries, and that’s really where we’re focused. Our whole focus was to put ourselves in a position where we could contain the cost in the first year and then maximize the opportunities that we have to source outside of China. So, what you should hear out of that is, I don’t expect cost beyond that to be ramping up significantly from what we’ve talked about for fiscal ’16. I mean, that’s a long way off, that’s sort of my projecting it forward.

Robert Gross

Analyst

So, we’re trying to get -- Sure. I understand. And then, so one quick last one, that the 2-ish percent price increased. You said you took in third quarter, which sounds like it was

Robert Higginbotham

Analyst

Sure, I understood. And then, so one quick last one that the, 2’ish percent price increase you said you took in third quarter which sounds like it was spread across both throughout Chinese imports and the branded product. Was that driven by the manufacturers and you passing that through or was any of that you taking price action just at retail?

John Van Heel

Analyst

That was us taking action at retail.

Robert Higginbotham

Analyst

Okay. Thank you.

John Van Heel

Analyst

Sure. Catherine D’Amico: Thank you.

Operator

Operator

And that does conclude our question-and-answer session. I’ll turn it back over to our speakers for any closing remarks. Catherine D’Amico: Thank you.

John Van Heel

Analyst

Thank you all for your time on this early morning. While I’m not contend with our results, we are actively managing our business to drive top line growth, in earnings in this operating environment, and to expand our competitive advantages to strengthen Monro to the long-term. We appreciate your continued support and the efforts of our employees that work hard everyday to take care about customers. Thanks again, and have a great day.

Operator

Operator

And that does conclude today’s conference call. We appreciate your participation.