Earnings Labs

Monro, Inc. (MNRO)

Q1 2015 Earnings Call· Thu, Jul 24, 2014

$17.02

-2.74%

Key Takeaways · AI generated
AI summary not yet generated for this transcript. Generation in progress for older transcripts; check back soon, or browse the full transcript below.

Same-Day

+0.53%

1 Week

-0.86%

1 Month

+2.64%

vs S&P

+1.85%

Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good day everyone and welcome to the Monro Muffler Brake Inc First Quarter 2015 Earnings Conference. Today’s conference is being recorded. At this time, I’d like to turn the conference over to Leigh Parrish, please go ahead.

Leigh Parrish

Management

Thank you. Hello, everyone, and thank you for joining us on this morning’s call. I would just like to remind you that on this morning’s call, management may reiterate forward-looking statements made in today’s release. In accordance with the Safe Harbor provisions of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995, I would like to call your attention to the risks and uncertainties related to these statements, which are more fully described in the press release and the company’s filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission. These risks and uncertainties include, but are not necessarily limited to, uncertainties affecting retail generally such as consumer confidence and demand for auto repair, risks relating to leverage and debt service, including sensitivity to fluctuations in interest rates, dependence on, and competition within the primary markets, in which the company’s stores are located, and the need for, and costs associated with store renovations and other capital expenditures. The company undertakes no obligation to release publicly, any revisions to these forward-looking statements that may be made to reflect events or circumstances after the date hereof, or to reflect the occurrence of unanticipated events. The inclusion of any statement on this call does not constitute an admission by Monro or other person that events or circumstances described in such statements are material. Joining us for this morning’s call from management are John van Heel, President and CEO; Cathy D’Amico, CFO and Rob Gross, Executive Chairman. With these formalities out of the way, I’d like to turn the call over to John. John, you may begin.

John Heel

Management

Thanks, Leigh. Good morning and thank you for joining us on today’s call. We are pleased that you are with us to discuss our first quarter fiscal 2015 performance. I’ll start today with the review of the results for the quarter and an update on our key initiatives. And then we’ll provide our outlook for the remainder of the fiscal year. I’ll then turn the call over to Cathy D’Amico, our Chief Financial Officer, who will provide additional details on our financial results. As we started off our new fiscal year, our flexible business model enabled us to deliver sales growth of 5.5% and strong net income growth of 25% in the first quarter, but we are not satisfied with the 1% comparable store sales increase. We were able to deliver total sales in bottom line results within our guidance range. Importantly, during the quarter, despite the challenging consumer spending environment we continue to deliver on our key objectives of increasing traffic, benefiting from lower material costs, managing operating expenses, generating strong sales and earnings contribution from our recent acquisitions and capitalizing on opportunities to completely additional acquisitions at attractive prices. Our performance is the result of our team’s consistent execution of our proving strategy and the initiatives that enable us to lead our industry, in both strong and weak markets. Our first quarter comparable store sales increase of 1% reflects traffic gains of 2%. We generated a comparable store sales increase of approximately 2% in the first seven weeks of the quarter. However, comparable store sales softened the last six weeks of the quarter, particularly in the tire category, although units remained positive. Turning to our performance within specific categories, we were encouraged to see comparable store sales increases across all of our service and maintenance categories. We believe…

John Heel

Management

Thanks, Cathy. Before we enter questions, I want to comment on the potential for additional tires imported from China. Very recent reports indicate that USW petition requesting additional tariff is moving forward and it looks as if any additional tariff or duty would not apply until later this calendar year or early next year. First it’s hard to understand the need for additional tariffs as major tire manufacturers have reported significantly improved margins and operating results. If additional tariffs are implemented U.S. customers will end up paying more for every tire purchased period. That said in short-term we will leverage our own distribution centers, logistics network, enroll borrowing cost as Cathy said LIBOR plus one to increase our orders of direct import tires. This will allow us to increase our competitive advantage on cost and allow us to continue to offer customers great value. We would also expect that retail prices will begin to increase which should cover our additional warehousing cost over the year and then some. It will likely resolve our deflation impact from trade down and help our comp tire sales if units don’t suffer significantly. As a reminder last time we dealt with additional tariffs which was October of 2009 to September of 2012 tire sales increased more than 5% in the first two year, helped by pricing. Looking at this longer-term and consistent with how we have established our business model anything that effects the industry as a whole should increase our competitive advantage. So if additional tariffs are implemented, we believe that our comps get better, our earning get better and smaller tire dealers would buy themselves under additional pressure which will create more opportunities for us to make accretive acquisitions. In short bring it on, With that, I will turn it over to the operator for questions.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. [Operator Instructions] We go first to Bret Jordan at BB&T Capital Markets. Bret Jordan – BB&T Capital Markets: Hi good morning guys.

John Heel

Management

Good morning, Bret. Bret Jordan – BB&T Capital Markets: Quick question on logistics sales as Florida is looking to answer, the next year is that a market that you’ll need incremental distribution for or is there distribution that comes with that package?

John Heel

Management

There is no distribution that comes with the chain. We see significant opportunities to continue to expand there. And with additional expansion we will likely open distribution down in Florida. Bret Jordan – BB&T Capital Markets: Okay and then your NDAs have grown to ten are those has that increased because you’re now looking at stores in these new Western and Southern markets are those 10 NDAs in existing legacy markets?

John Heel

Management

Those are changed within our legacy – our existing footprint and it needs two new markets. As we’d expanded into these markets our forming has continued to ring and we expected that we would see additional opportunity in those market and we absolutely are. By the way just back to your question on destitution. The fact that we won’t be opening distribution right now it’s absolutely in Florida, it’s absolutely incorporated in the guidance that we’ve given for this year. Bret Jordan – BB&T Capital Markets: Okay. And one question is relates to the tariff in your comment on probably stock filing in advance as it looks likely, would you please access storage space and those are the kind of thing we could stockpile given the incremental points of sale you have now down in the Southeast that you could expand distribution on a shorter term basis?

John Heel

Management

Yeah, that’s absolutely part of that stock process. Again, I was just going to mentioned it is incorporated in our guidance for the year. Bret Jordan – BB&T Capital Markets: Okay. And then one last housekeeping, could you give us the monthly progression, you mentioned the first couple of weeks is plus two and the last week was soft, but could you give us the three months?

John Heel

Management

Sure, the April was up 2.2, May was up 1 and June was down 0.8. Bret Jordan – BB&T Capital Markets: Okay. Great! Thank you.

John Heel

Management

Thank you. Operator?

Operator

Operator

We’ll move next to Rich Nelson at Stephens Inc Investment Bank. Nicholas Zangler – Stephens Inc. Investment Bank: Hi this is Nick Zangler in for Rich. The comps that you just gave were those sales comps or were those traffic comps?

John Heel

Management

Those were sales comps. Nicholas Zangler – Stephens Inc. Investment Bank: Okay. Can you provide – I am sorry, can you provide traffic just in those three months and how that trended?

John Heel

Management

Traffic was up for the quarter. We don’t break that out. It was up two for the quarter and we don’t break that out by month. Nicholas Zangler – Stephens Inc. Investment Bank: Okay. That’s fine. And then what’s your guidance on comps and then comments on the consumer is the current environment still pressuring independence or do you find that they are finally released at this period exclusive of the potential Chinese character?

John Heel

Management

Yeah, in the ten NDAs that we signed obviously, we’re getting financial statement from those individuals and we continue to see pressure on those businesses. They certainly don’t have leverage that we do to drive additional profitability. And we’re seeing that, in their numbers and I think that’s the read of the additional acquisition opportunities we see this year. Nicholas Zangler – Stephens Inc. Investment Bank: Okay. And then, on recent calls, it sounds like there’s a strong demand for mechanics and technicians in various service shops are you guys seeing it, finding it to be a little bit more difficult to find qualified personnel, keep them or do you see labor cost increasing or is everything going is planned in that category?

John Heel

Management

No. I don’t find that we are having particular difficulty getting qualified guys to staff our stores, no, that hasn’t been a problem and we continue to control labor off the gains that we made last year. Nicholas Zangler – Stephens Inc. Investment Bank: Great. All right. Thanks a lot guys. Good luck.

John Heel

Management

Thank you. Catherine D’Amico: Thank you.

Operator

Operator

We’ll move next to Brett Hoselton at KeyBanc. Brett Hoselton – KeyBanc: Good morning, gentlemen.

Rob Gross

Analyst

Hi, Brett. Brett Hoselton – KeyBanc: First I was hoping if you could talk a little bit more about tire volumes, little bit surprising, seems like you underperform the a little bit and I guess I am wondering what are your thoughts there I mean same-store unit sales up about 1% on year-over-year basis we kind of saw the industry being out maybe 100 or 200 basis points better than that. So it seems as though you might have underperformed the industry can you talk a little bit about that do you feel you underperform the industry or is your region, do you think you are pretty much in line with your region what are your thoughts there?

John Heel

Management

Yeah. I think we are in line with our region again from what we see in our markets and in the NDAs. I would – I guess I would offer consistent with our approach we are designed to make as much profit as we can. And we maintain our pricing discipline to achieve that. So what I can say if anyone out there is selling more unit they’re certainly not making as much as money as we are. Brett Hoselton – KeyBanc: And then can you talk a little about your adjustment in terms of your earnings guidance, particularly from in the upper end, what are the primary drivers there and then and how did the acquisitions factor into the adjustment in earnings guidance?

John Heel

Management

Yes, for the year the primary adjustment is the fact after, running plus one in the first quarter we took down the high-end of sales guidance and we’ve always said that, 1% comp store sales is about $0.07 and that’s really where that lines up. Brett Hoselton – KeyBanc: Perfect. And then can you talk a little about kind of frame out your acquisition pipeline, you typically talk maybe in terms of number on non-discloser agreements. So can you kind of frame out the magnitude of that maybe provide potential or additional revenue opportunity? And then you’ve also just recently entered into two brand new markets and so how do we think about entering into brand new markets versus in building out your current footprint?

John Heel

Management

Sure. The NDAs that we have are all within our existing markets and they range from five stores to 40 stores again we don’t accumulate that up but I could tell you that its well more than one year’s acquisition growth in our 10% sort of annual goal of that we had in our operating plan. In terms of entering new markets we look for the right opportunities within those markets when we entered Michigan we did that with nearly 20 stores. We entered Florida with 35 stores. We are not going to a new state like Florida for five stores but with the tremendous opportunities that exist down there entering with 35 stores with that cover major markets on those is a perfect way for us to get into a large market there. And affords us the opportunity to bolt-on additional stores which will up drive the operating synergies we get by increasing the store density in our markets. But that’s how we look at it we look at Florida like it’s a 150 store state for us.

Rob Gross

Analyst

That’s specifically Bret if the 50 did hit to the companies operating margin for the full year going into these new markets because they’ll start off a little bit slower than obviously just going into our overall business model. Brett Hoselton – KeyBanc: And it’s a lot more in the order term so thank you very much gentlemen.

Rob Gross

Analyst

Yeah. That’s why everyone’s happy that we are sending him down there.

Operator

Operator

Now we’ll go next to James Albertine at Stiefel. James Albertine – Stiefel: Thanks and good morning everyone. Very nice way to end the call by the way with the bringing on, very refreshing the year. To the end of – to the points that you were making on the Chinese tire tariff, to the best of our knowledge, it doesn’t look like the arguments that really changed in the last – since the last time we were having or hearing this debate. So number one, what’s your view on sort of the USW’s arguments in more detail? Why did they think they have a better case this time around? And quite frankly, why do you think this is not – this hasn’t been sort of shutdown in process? I mean we’re sort of surprised that the received attraction they have in terms of the ongoing investigation, it sounds like? And then as it relates to all that, we haven’t seen it, but is there an effort or you part of an effort on the other side of the debate to sort of argue against the USW’s case in this instance?

Rob Gross

Analyst

Yeah Jamie, this is Rob. I mean in total we think it’s asinine. We now have perfect information on what it did to the consumer three years ago. It didn’t cost USW jobs. All these guys are opening plants. We think it’s unbelievably stupid, but I mean look around the country and there is plenty of unbelievably stupid things going on. We did look back at the numbers and the impact on our business when this occurred we were in two straight years of the best numbers we’ve seen even with a lower percentage of tire sales than we have now. So we’re encouraged about our total volume pick-up over the last number of years which should benefit us. We’re encouraged about our advantage with our direct supply from China and low borrowing cost for ability to make this more profitable for us today than it was back then and as far as what’s going to occur our bet would be that its likely going to go on because it shouldn’t have gotten to this point it will take a while for these guys to end up voting on it. But you know be careful what you ask for if you’re – if you’re the unions. I mean the bottom line is, the domestic manufactures don’t even compete with what’s going on with the imports. They’ve given up that segment of the market and we know the only thing that’s going to occur from this is that, the average retail price for the consumer and every tire high end or low end is going up which for us will alleviate the deflation we’ve been struggling with. And our plan is to maintain units make more money and we can’t control what goes on in areas other than inside our stores. James Albertine – Stiefel: Sure. Understood and I appreciate that is strong color. Just quick housekeeping items I appreciate as you always provide them the monthly comp cadence, was there a quarter-to-date number for the month of July that you would be willing to provide at this point as well or did I just miss it?

John Heel

Management

Yeah. We said that comps through three weeks in July were down two. James Albertine – Stiefel: Down two you said okay, so I apologize for that, but thanks for the clarifying.

John Heel

Management

Sure,. James Albertine – Stiefel: All right. Take care.

John Heel

Management

Thank you.

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] We’ll go next to Scott Stember of Sidoti & Company. Scott Stember – Sidoti & Company: Good morning.

John Heel

Management

Good morning, Scott. Scott Stember – Sidoti & Company: You mentioned that on tires at least that you are going to see a 3% to 5% increase price increase that you’re putting through, can you talk about what’s your plans are for price increases on the rest of your products?

John Heel

Management

Sure. We said that, on the spring we expect about a 1% increase on service business. And we will look to give that again in the fall as we have traditionally and with regard to the price increase that we are putting through on the direct import tires right now. We had such strong acceptance of that and it is a real value. We continue as we work that program, to look for ways to make more money in here and here we think there’s an opportunity to giving the fact that we have had positive units to capture some price here. Scott Stember – Sidoti & Company: Okay. And just last question on the tires for acquisition – can you really talk about their standing within the local markets and maybe how their sales have been performing notably in tires in recent quarters?

John Heel

Management

Yeah. They are an absolute market leader down there. Great locations again like we said in key markets on Eastern and West Coast and their comps has been slightly – their comps have been positive this year. Scott Stember – Sidoti & Company: Slightly – okay. That’s all I have. Thank you.

John Heel

Management

Alright. Thanks Scott.

Operator

Operator

We’ll go next to Mike Montani at ISI Group. Mike Montani – ISI Group: Hey, guys good morning. I –

John Heel

Management

Good morning. Mike Montani – ISI Group: I just wanted to first ask housekeeping question if you could just to provide the percentage of sales by category that you have in the past historically.

John Heel

Management

Sure. Sales by category breaks were 17 exhaust was four, steering was the front end was 10, tires is 41 and maintenance is 28. Mike Montani – ISI Group: Okay. Thanks. And then a question on the quarter can you just provide a little clarity in terms of how the traffic is trended throughout the quarter like it was obviously a two for the whole thing but one thing is moderated a bit and turned negative was that more due to pricing pressure or mix changing on ticket or was that traffic?

John Heel

Management

It was traffic was positive in all of the months for the quarter including June so there’s more on the overall average ticket size. Mike Montani – ISI Group: Okay that’s helpful. And if you could also just elaborate a bit when the ticket was down foreign tires was that basically all mix or was there point of deflation or how should we think about what you’re coming off of?

John Heel

Management

That was all due to the changing mix to the direct import tires. Mike Montani – ISI Group: Okay and then when was the 3% to 5% increases going up I apologize if I’d missed that?

John Heel

Management

No that’s okay. It’s going in as we speak here so late this month. So that’s part of the reason that I see opportunity against some weak comps from last year for us to recover some of that on the comp side for the rest of the quarter. Mike Montani – ISI Group: And just in terms of the benefits that you all did receive from the sourcing and the Chinese tires, my understanding is that the benefits basically has increased over the past year. So like maybe initially you’ve got 15% reduction and now I think you are more or like 20 or 25 on import tires. I mean is that right like was there actually incremental benefits as we progressed through that and how do you think about cycling that on the ticket side as well because perhaps that could also help your ticket?

John Heel

Management

Yeah I don’t see – that to me is less about ticket. Certainly it’s more about the average cost side and the gross profit. So yes we have – as you look back we initially talked about 10 to 15 right since June 20 and over 20, so there is a progression of cost there. That have come in even through the early parts of this year. So we will get some benefit from that. And in terms of the ticket or the sales price, again our approach is to not be the lowest in the market, so with talk of tariffs and higher tariff cost, we’ll maintain our discipline there. And I would expect as we move forward for retail pricings to cover some and that’s certainly help our comp in that deflation impact. Mike Montani – ISI Group: Thanks. And maybe just lastly to quantify, the overall opportunity here, can you just provide a sense of how large you guys are now after all of these deals in terms of annualized tide buy in units or – and how did that change now versus the last time tire tales were in place?

John Heel

Management

We are uplifts of 3 million tires right now, somewhere in that range, last time that the tariffs were in place we would have been half of that or less. Mike Montani – ISI Group: Okay. Thanks helpful. Thank you.

John Heel

Management

Thank you. Catherine D’Amico: Thank you.

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] All right, we’re going to go to Brett Hoselton at KeyBanc. Brett Hoselton – KeyBanc: Gentlemen.

John Heel

Management

Yes. Brett Hoselton – KeyBanc: I was hoping you kind of just talk a little bit through it sound like you are feeling very good about, it sounds like you don’t feel that the tariff is going to negatively impact your earnings. It sound like you are actually suggesting that it might actually positively impact your earnings and I kind of – I guess I am struggling a little bit with that in that – if your cost of goods sold go up your margins are going to get squeezed obviously and then there is potentially some price demand from a consumer standpoint which might cause some sort of negative impact in terms of unit volume and so forth. So if you kind of walk through how you think about tariff driving higher earnings?

John Heel

Management

Yeah. I think that relates more to next year certainly and certainly the early stages of that what I do know is – what I do expect is that like last time pricing to the consumer will go up. We will have brought a bunch of tires in advanced at the existing cost and we will benefit from that. Last time, that benefit was well more than a year like I said we ran positive 5% tires in the first two years of a tariff last time it was implemented. So I think that is at the heart of where we see that and we talked about that certainly in terms of when you look at that on a little bit of a longer term basis and outside of that I –smaller players in the industry that don’t have the ability to source like we do. We’ll get squeezed by the tariff much sooner than that. And that will open up additional acquisition opportunity, which again drive our profitability long-term. We’re building long-term business here and these types of, these types dynamics in the market will help our strategy long-term because it will drive the acquisition growth and we will be able to take advantage of side and our buying power and only logistics and that work in the shorter term. Brett Hoselton – KeyBanc: And if you were too let say pre-buy prior to the tariff, a large amount of tires in the warehouse then itself, would you consider it sounds like you in the past you’ve done more than a year, is there a possibility that you could do two years worth or three years worth, or how do you think about the order of magnitude of being able to do something along those lines?

John Heel

Management

Look. Our comments on the tariff, we’re not to break down to absolute specific. So of what we are going to do, these rulings aren’t even final yet. I wanted to make sure that everyone goes aware that we are going to use the advantages that we have in this environment to continue to create value and to continue to grow our business and profitability. We will fill everyone in, what we are doing as more details of what specifically will happen with the tariff come out. Brett Hoselton – KeyBanc: That makes sense John. Thank you very much it’s just its quite compiling. So thank you.

John Heel

Management

Sure. I agree.

Operator

Operator

And that does conclude the question and answer session. At this time I’d like to turn the conference back over to the management for any closing remarks.

John Heel

Management

Great, thank you all for your time this morning. Our business is healthy. We are serving more customers, selling more tires and service continuing to grow to profitable acquisitions and driving higher earnings. We appreciate your continued support and the efforts of our employees that work hard every day to take care of our customers. Thanks again and have a great day.

Operator

Operator

And that concludes today’s conference. Again thank you for your participation.