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Monro, Inc. (MNRO)

Q4 2013 Earnings Call· Tue, May 21, 2013

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Monro Muffler Brake’s Fourth Quarter 2013 Earnings Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. Later, we will conduct a question-and-answer session and instructions will follow at that time. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, ladies and gentlemen, this conference is being recorded and may not be reproduced in whole or in part without permission from the company. I would now like to introduce Ms. Jennifer Milan of FTI Consulting. Please go ahead.

Jennifer Milan

Analyst

Thank you. Hello everyone and thank you for joining us on this morning’s call. I would just like to remind you that on this morning’s call management may reiterate forward-looking statements made in today’s release. In accordance with the Safe Harbor provisions of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995, I would like to call your attention to the risks and uncertainties related to these statements which are more fully described in the press release and in the company’s filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission. These risks and uncertainties include, but are not necessarily limited to uncertainties affecting retail generally, such as consumer confidence and demand for auto repair, risks related to leverage and debt service including sensitivity to fluctuations in interest rates, dependence on and competition within the primary markets in which the company’s stores are located and the need for and cost associated with store renovations and other capital expenditures. The company undertakes no obligation to release publicly any revisions to these forward-looking statements that maybe made to reflect events or circumstances after the date hereof or to reflect the occurrence of unanticipated events. The inclusion of any statement in this call does not constitute an admission by Monro or any other person that the events or circumstances described in such statements are material. Joining us for this morning’s call from management are John Van Heel, President and Chief Executive Officer; Cathy D’Amico, Chief Financial Officer; and Rob Gross, Executive Chairman. With these formalities out of the way, I would like to turn the call over to John Van Heel. John, you may begin.

John Van Heel

Analyst

Thanks Jen. Good morning and thank you for joining us on today’s call. We are pleased that you are with us to discuss our fourth quarter and fiscal 2013 performance. After some brief opening remarks, I will review our quarterly and full year performance then provide you with an update on our business as well as our outlook for the new fiscal year. I’ll then turn the call over to Cathy D’Amico, our Chief Financial Officer who will provide additional details on our financial results. I want to start by saying that although fiscal 2013 was a tough year for us with the lingering effects of a challenging macro environment and less than ideal weather conditions that persisted into the early part of the fourth quarter, we were able to deliver overall sales growth of $45 million to $732 million, an increase of 6.6% over fiscal 2012, which included an extra week. In this challenging environment, we continue to execute on our proven strategies and the initiatives that have helped us consistently lead our industry during both strong and weak markets. We accelerated acquisitions as we said we would in times of slow organic growth, and with record acquisition growth in fiscal 2013 positioning the company for strong earnings growth over the next several years. We are now pleased with our fourth quarter or fiscal 2013 results, but are optimistic that we have some strengthening in our business with comparable store sales trends improving in February and March after a tough start to the quarter and with further improvement in April and May into positive territory, which I will talk about in a few moments. At the end of the day, people need what we sell and can only defer purchases of our products and services for so long. The…

Operator

Operator

(Operator Instructions) And we will go first to Bret Jordan with BB&T Capital Markets. Bret Jordan - BB&T Capital Markets: Hey, good morning. Couple of questions on tires, and I guess as we look at the tire mix during the fourth quarter and as it seems to be recovering into the first quarter, could you tell us sort of what import versus branded or domestic tires in that sales mix?

John Van Heel

Analyst

Sure, import is slightly more than 25%. Bret Jordan - BB&T Capital Markets: Okay. And what are you seeing on a pricing trend there I mean it sounds like some of the domestic manufacturers are talking about some increased competition I guess lower invoice pricing to the retail channel are you seeing your prices continuing to come down?

John Van Heel

Analyst

Yes, we’ve laid out the details of what we have seen on the branded side, we have seen discounts primarily behind the line discounts of up to 8% and I would expect that to continue during this year as raw materials stay down and as their units go down. The increasing mix that we have of import tires tends to take units out of the branded manufacturers and at some point I think they’d respond to that. Bret Jordan - BB&T Capital Markets: Okay. And then I think in your prepared remarks you talked about maybe seeing some inflection point on this deferral trend are you seeing anything either attachment rates on alignments or bias to buy two and four tires as opposed to buying individual tires, anything changed in sort of that consumer response here recently as seems like business has picked up?

John Van Heel

Analyst

No, I don’t see anything significant there. Obviously, the most important number for us is just that traffic itself is up. Bret Jordan - BB&T Capital Markets: Okay, great. And I guess what is the alignment attachment that we sort of look at that as an indicator for the consumer confidence?

John Van Heel

Analyst

It’s about one alignment for every four tires. Bret Jordan - BB&T Capital Markets: Okay, great, thanks.

John Van Heel

Analyst

Yeah. Thanks.

Operator

Operator

And now to Rick Nelson with Stephens

Rick Nelson - Stephens Inc.

Analyst

Thanks. Good morning. I would like to follow-up on this improvement in comps that you have seen in the current quarter, if you could talk about the categories that are driving that recovery and how the margins are looking at this point are you having to promote more aggressively to drive the comp?

John Van Heel

Analyst

Yes, the tires are the best category, in there all the other categories are up somewhat. We don’t go into category details in the middle of a quarter, but they are all up with tires leading the way.

Rick Nelson - Stephens Inc.

Analyst

Okay, got you. And John on the acquisition front, your target of 10% acquisition growth obviously last year was substantially more than that how do you see this year shaping out relative to that 10% target?

John Van Heel

Analyst

Well, as I’ve said we have eight [NDAs] [ph] that we are currently working on and given the conversations we could see one or two of those close early in the second quarter, so that number of eight NDAs is really a high point for us, so the acquisition pipeline remained strong and the long-term trends are in place. These guys are getting older, don’t have internal succession options. So, we could close several deals this year and I think we could get one or two done in the first quarter.

Rob Gross

Analyst

Hey Rich, this is Rob. I think we said in general we would expect based on taxes and healthcare reform for fiscal 2014 to be a slightly better than average year and 2015 to be slightly worse than average year, moving up some of the acquisitions. However, we have no target beyond I think the 10% is what we referred to is what we will average per year over a 5-year period.

Rick Nelson - Stephens Inc.

Analyst

Got you. And just to be clear acquisitions are not in the guidance for the current year?

John Van Heel

Analyst

The fiscal 2013 acquisitions are anything that we would do in fiscal ‘14 are not.

Rick Nelson - Stephens Inc.

Analyst

Got you. And the $0.15 to $0.20 accretion for this year obviously that ramps pretty substantially in fiscal ‘15, any color on how you expect that to ramp from ‘14 to ‘15?

John Van Heel

Analyst

Yes, I think that we have laid out how the acquisitions contribute over the first two years breakeven to slightly accretive in year one, $0.08 to $0.10 in year two, and $0.08 to $0.10 in year three. So, there is – we have given that to allow to get to that accretion as those acquisitions mature given – and given the times that we did the deal, so…

Rick Nelson - Stephens Inc.

Analyst

Okay, great. Yeah, we can do the math on that. Thanks a lot and good luck.

John Van Heel

Analyst

Thanks.

Operator

Operator

Now to Jamie Albertine with Stifel.

Jamie Albertine - Stifel Nicolaus

Analyst

Thanks for taking my questions. And just in case I missed it did you guys provide the actual monthly comp breakdown through I guess April or even quarter-to-date, I mean, I heard 3% is where you are running, but did you provide the monthly breakdown?

John Van Heel

Analyst

No, that is April and if you are talking about in fiscal ‘14 that’s April and May together.

Jamie Albertine - Stifel Nicolaus

Analyst

Together it’s 3%, okay. And did you say what January, February, and March were?

John Van Heel

Analyst

Yeah, January adjusted for days was down 13%, February was down 0.7%, March was down 3.7%. The quarter adjusted for days was 5.6%. It was down 5.6%.

Jamie Albertine - Stifel Nicolaus

Analyst

Great, thank you. And then wanted to just ask another question, with respect to your GM guidance which I believe if I have it correctly was flat to slightly down for the year ahead. Is that anticipating as the comp kind of improves here to 2.5% to 4.5% clip, any increase in potential promotion or discounting prices to the consumer in that more competitive environment presumably?

John Van Heel

Analyst

No, given what we seen from the acquisitions that we have been looking at and have [NDAs] [ph] on, we see continued pressure on margins, so we would expect the pricing environment to remain relatively stable. Beyond that, that guidance as soon as that we run out our business in this market to collect all that we can and provide a service to our customer that supports that.

Jamie Albertine - Stifel Nicolaus

Analyst

Okay, great. And then one last question if I may, understanding the years two and three accretion of $0.08 to $0.10 for every 10% in acquisitive growth, in an environment where you are comping better than expected, is there an acceleration of that trend into year one, perhaps or an appreciation of that aggregate accretion? So, can it be $0.09 to $0.11 in a 5% comp environment presumably? I am just trying to get a sense for now that you have lowered your comp leverage point to sort of flat from 2% to 2.5%, does that – is there any movement in that range potentially? Thanks.

Rob Gross

Analyst

This is Rob. The comps from the acquisitions remember don’t go into the comp base. So, part of our conservatism, our hopeful conservatism is that we assume we are going to screw up sales for the first six months. So, if we are running at plus 4 comp to the company that doesn’t necessarily mean our expectation for first year acquisition growth is going to be higher. I think we are fairly comfortable at the 10% acquisition level that we will get $0.08 to $0.10 accretiveness in year two breakeven or slightly accretive in year one and that same group will then be $0.08 to $0.10 accretive in year three, and if you remember, as our base is built, those numbers used to be $0.06 to $0.08 accretive in the first year being 10% was $50 million in sales as opposed to not going forward, 10% is going to be $840 million. So, the $0.08 to $0.10 is fully loaded 10% acquisition growth.

Jamie Albertine - Stifel Nicolaus

Analyst

Very good. Thanks so much for the color.

Rob Gross

Analyst

Thank you.

Operator

Operator

And now to Mike Montani with ISI Group.

Mike Montani - ISI Group

Analyst

Hey, guys. Just wanted to ask if you could give the breakout of on the category sales mix, so like tires are X percent of sales this quarter just so we can compare year-over-year?

John Van Heel

Analyst

Sure. For the quarter, brakes was 14%, exhaust 4%, bearing 10%, tires 44%, and maintenance 29%.

Mike Montani - ISI Group

Analyst

Okay. Go ahead John.

John Van Heel

Analyst

I was going to give it to you for the year, brakes were 16%, exhaust was 4%, bearing was 10%, tires were 42%, and maintenance was 29%. So, don’t hold me to the rounding there.

Mike Montani - ISI Group

Analyst

Good. Okay, and then when you look at the improvement that you all have seen in comp trends obviously going to plus 3% from a down 5%, 6% adjusted for days, can you provide what the traffic and ticket were to get to the down 5%, 6%? And then what is really improved? It sounds like it’s mostly traffic, but maybe there is also ticket given the mix.

John Van Heel

Analyst

Yes, we had traffic in the fourth quarter was down and ticket was also down in the fourth quarter. Again, as we said, oil changes for the year were flat. So, we continued our relationships with our customers there and the traffic being up in the first in April and May is lead by oil changes. So, oil changes are up consistent with traffic.

Mike Montani - ISI Group

Analyst

And has the ticket now also turned positive John or is that still on the comp so to peak?

Rob Gross

Analyst

This is Rob. We commented on the full year, I mean, we will be happy to express what’s going on with ticket when we get to the end of the quarter, Mike. We are kind of just trying to give as much color as we can.

John Van Heel

Analyst

Obviously with tires being a strong category in the first couple of months that certainly helps tickets.

Mike Montani - ISI Group

Analyst

Great, thanks. And just the last one I had was on the fourth quarter with the tires being down 6% in dollars, can you share what the unit versus pricing would have been?

John Van Heel

Analyst

Yeah, the units for the quarter were down similarly.

Mike Montani - ISI Group

Analyst

Okay, great. Thank you. Good luck.

John Van Heel

Analyst

Thank you.

Operator

Operator

And now to Peter Keith with Piper Jaffray

Jon Berg - Piper Jaffray

Analyst

Good morning. This is actually Jon Berg on for Peter. Thanks a lot for taking our questions. If you look at the entire auto services industry right now, do you guys believe you are maintaining your share in all your categories and then the X tires if you look out over the next 12 months, where do you anticipate the most acceleration as far as categories?

John Van Heel

Analyst

Yeah, we are maintaining share. We talked about that quite a lot during this year with the pressure on sales, particularly in our geographic regions. And I think the oil changes and our tire units speak to that through fiscal ‘13 and with tire sales being up early this year and with oil changes being up, I think we are holding share, if not taking a little bit, but we’ll see about that as we gather more information about what’s happening early this year.

Jon Berg - Piper Jaffray

Analyst

Okay. And then we noticed you are advertising a second option for credit card on your website now, and I don’t recall seeing that before. I think that card allows for no interest paid for 12 months, is that helping the drive tire sales and potentially trade up within the tire category?

John Van Heel

Analyst

Yeah, the reason we put that into place several months ago was that – so that – that went into place later last year that was to make sure that we offered our customers a convenient way to purchase tires, it’s got $500 minimum. So, it’s very useful for tire purchase – tire sales I should say. And with our size, we felt like we could offer that at a very competitive cost.

Rob Gross

Analyst

But I don’t – this is Rob, it is not the driver of what’s occurring with tires coming out of the winter because that promotion you were talking about was in place all of the fourth quarters and helped us to deliver a spectacular minus six in tires. In fact we have said that we are holding the powder on our advertising until we see some pick up, so we are encouraged that we running the plus three without a significant increase if any on the advertising side.

Jon Berg - Piper Jaffray

Analyst

Okay, great, thanks a lot good luck in Q1.

John Van Heel

Analyst

Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Now we will go to Scott Stember with Sidoti & Company. Scott Stember - Sidoti & Company: Good morning.

John Van Heel

Analyst

Hi Scott. Scott Stember - Sidoti & Company: Much has been made about I guess the level of deferral of tire sales basically people driving on essentially bald tires, can you talk about the condition of the tires that are coming up off on your lift to give us an indication of what could possibly be coming in the next couple of quarters?

John Van Heel

Analyst

Yeah, I think that’s exactly what we are seeing. We are seeing more people driving around on bald tires, it’s the worst condition collectively that we see in a long period. So, I think that it’s that it’s the basis of the extended deferral and that’s really what’s out there. I would expect that next shoe to drop to be a reduction in that deferral cycle and period and particularly given some of the traction that we have seen early in this quarter. Scott Stember - Sidoti & Company: Okay. And last question in the past we talked about growing in some other areas a little bit more such as temperature control is there anything new on that front particularly with the summer coming up or any other areas that you guys are targeting?

John Van Heel

Analyst

No, I mean nothing in particular, we continue as Rob said to promote our business and save some of our powder on the advertising front till we see some more traction. And we’ll see as things develop here when it makes sense to push a little bit more on that front where we think that we can actually drive some real increased sales. Scott Stember - Sidoti & Company: Great, that’s all I have. Thank you.

John Van Heel

Analyst

Thank you.

Operator

Operator

And we will go to Brian Sponheimer with Gabelli & Company Brian Sponheimer - Gabelli & Company: Hi, good morning.

John Van Heel

Analyst

Good morning Brian. Brian Sponheimer - Gabelli & Company: So, with tires coming back a little bit, next category I am curious about is on the brakes side, presumably if the tire is coming back the brake pads seem can’t be all that much better, what do you think drives the change there to get brakes back on the positive side?

John Van Heel

Analyst

Well, as I said all the categories are positive, our key categories are positive and we saw a deferral on the brakes side as well. The key for us is to continue to drive oil changes to have that opportunity to present the customer with their brake measurements and their tire measurements as we do on every oil change. That’s part of our building trust on keeping them coming back if the consumer is improving we want them in our shop when they are more prepared to make that brake purchase. Brian Sponheimer - Gabelli & Company: The brake pads that you are selling right now, are you still seeing the trend towards the good and better as opposed to the premium set?

John Van Heel

Analyst

Yes, we have a very strong mix of upgraded pads. Brian Sponheimer - Gabelli & Company: Alright. I look forward to a better year.

John Van Heel

Analyst

So are we.

Operator

Operator

(Operator Instructions) And it appears there are no further questions at this time. I’ll be glad to turn the conference back our speakers for any additional or closing remarks.

John Van Heel

Analyst

Thanks. I would like to thank everyone for their time this morning. We came out of the tough year with a lot higher store count, a lot better store density and we are encouraged by the positive sales trends early in this fiscal year and very confident about the opportunities we have in 2014 and beyond. We appreciate your continued support and certainly appreciate all the efforts from all of our employees that are working hard everyday to take care of our customers. Thank you and have a great day.

Operator

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen that does conclude our conference for today. Thank you for your participation.