John Van Heel
Analyst · FTI Consulting. Please go ahead
Thanks, Jen. Good morning, and thank you for joining us on today’s call. We’re pleased that you’re with us to discuss our second quarter fiscal 2013 performance. After some brief opening remarks, I’ll review our quarterly performance, then provide you with an update on our business as well as our outlook for the remainder of the fiscal year. I’ll then turn the call over to Cathy D’Amico, our Chief Financial Officer, who will provide additional details on our financial results.
Before I review our second quarter performance, I would first like to speak briefly about our recent management succession. As many of you know, I assumed the role of Chief Executive Officer October 1, at which time Rob Gross assumed the role of Executive Chairman of the Board. On behalf of the board and the entire Monro team, I would like to thank Rob for his leadership, strategic vision and dedication which has been instrumental in Monro’s success over the past 13 years.
I’m very pleased to be in my new role and to continue to work together with Rob, our strong management team and our 5300 professional associates to further strengthen and leverage our position as a low-cost, trusted service provider. We continue to execute on our proven strategy and the initiatives that has delivered 11 straight years of positive comp sales and a 13-year average of 20% EPS growth; because favorable industry trends and our competitive advantages haven’t changed.
We’ve accelerated acquisitions as we said we would, in times of slow organic growth. We are not pleased with the first half of fiscal 2013 and expect near-term results to remain choppy, but people need what we sell and can only defer purchases of our products and services for so long. I believe that sales will improve as we move through the second half of fiscal 2013 as weather normalizes in our market and customers turn to us for these deferred purchases; while operating margins will benefit from reduced material costs and improving results from recent acquisitions.
Now onto our second quarter results. As we had anticipated, the second quarter remained challenging in terms of both top line and margins. However, we were able to somewhat navigate the headwinds we are seeing in our business and deliver EPS within our anticipated range.
That being said, we are not happy with our results. Comparable store sales for the second quarter declined 4.6% versus a 0.8% decrease last year; at the midpoint of our expected range, but weaker than we had hoped. With high gas and food prices compounded by high unemployment, the macro environment continues to weigh on consumer purchasing behavior. Customers are deferring trading down and prioritizing higher-cost maintenance, repair and tire purchases more than in the past and have been able to defer these purchases longer due to the mild winter last year.
Our position as a low-cost trusted service provider remains strong and we are maintaining share as evidenced by the fact that comparable stores oil changes were up 1% year-over-year and the decrease in our comp tire units sold this year is in line with RNA data for our Northeastern Great Lakes and Mid-Atlantic geographies. Significantly, customers are coming into our stores but are just not buying as much when it comes to maintenance, repair and tires. This is further evident by a year-to-date decline in our average ticket which we haven’t experienced since 2003.
For the second quarter, total sales increased by 1.9% to $176.5 million compared with $173.3 million in the prior year second quarter due to contributions from recent acquisitions. Our fiscal 2012 and 2013 acquisitions contributed slightly to our bottom line for the quarter as we expected with contributions from the 2012 acquisition partially offset by early transition costs from the 2013 acquisitions.
Over the last several quarters, we have discussed actions that we are taking to combat the gross margin pressure that we are experiencing as a result of both the expected product mix shift towards sales of lower margin tires, which is associated with our recent tire store acquisition and significant cost increases on tires and oil. We continue to leverage the increased purchasing power that has resulted from our recent acquisitions and shifting purchases between our broad base of vendors. Our new oil pricing, which we were able to renegotiate as a result of adding stores through acquisition, took affect during the quarter and helped our gross margin. Further, this cost will - this cost benefit will continue, saving $1 million in oil costs in the second half of our fiscal year.
Although we have raised prices over the past year, our gross margin remained under pressure by rising tire costs in particular, which was exacerbated by the loss of leverage from weak comparable store sales. However, these price increases helped maintain flat gross - flat average gross profit dollars collected for tire during the second quarter. In total, gross margin decreased 160 basis points during the second quarter to 39.6% versus 41.2% in the prior year.
As we’ve said in the past, we are focused on leveraging our business model to create sustainable, long-term value by capitalizing on our strength and the strength of our company-operated store model. In this regard, we have been working to increase our direct international sourcing primarily from China. We achieved our goal for a run rate of approximately 30% of our total product cost, less oil and outbide, [ph] at the end of fiscal 2012. Our run rate at the end of the second quarter was at a similar rate of 30%, which is lower than the 34% run rate at the end of the first quarter due to our decision to bring in fewer direct import tires during the quarter in advance of the September 2012 expiration of the tariff on tires imported from China.
However, we continue to see an opportunity to improve gross margin, particularly on tires, by further increasing our direct international sourcing to a run rate of about 40% over the next 12 months. At the same time we are carefully managing our costs, and our recent acquisitions will continue to benefit our operating margin. In this difficult sales environment, substantially all of the increase in total SG&A cost in the second quarter is attributable to acquired stores and for the year, non-acquisition SG&A costs are actually down.
That said, we lost leverage on these operating costs in the second quarter due to weak comparable store sales. For the second quarter, operating income decreased 21.7% to $19.7 million, which translates to an operating margin of 11.2% compared with 14.5% in the second quarter of last year. Net income for the second quarter decreased 23.6% to $11.5 million from $15.1 million last year. Our earnings per share declined 23.4% to $0.36 on a base of 32.2 million shares outstanding, from $0.47 in the prior year quarter.
In terms of sales category trends during the quarter, nearly all remained weak with the exception of comp oil changes because consumers still rely on Monro but are deferring and prioritizing higher cost tire and automotive service, maintenance and repair purchases. For the quarter, comp oil changes were up 1% year-over-year. Comparable brake sales on the other hand, which have held up reasonably well throughout fiscal 2012 but reversed the positive trend in the first quarter of fiscal 2013, were down a similar 11% in the second quarter.
Comparable exhaust sales, which were up an average of 4% over the last two fiscal years, were down nearly 16% in the second quarter compared to a 15% decline in the first quarter. Comp sales for tires improved and were down 3% in the second quarter compared to down 6% in the first quarter. At 39% of our sales mix, we have a significantly higher mix of tires than our competitors, with the exception of the independent tire retailers we are looking to acquire. Tires are a big-ticket item and we believe the significant price increases over the past two years have resulted in increased deferrals by customers. Given that tires are a safety issue and a need that consumers can only delay for so long, the ultimate reversal of this trend should positively impact sales in the second half of fiscal 2013, particularly as we get into winter.
We continue to promote traffic and sales in key categories through specific programs such as Oil Change & More in which our customers receive free tire rotations and brake inspections with the purchase of an oil change, and brakes forever in which we guarantee brake pads for the life of the car and replace pads for only the cost of labor. We believe that these initiatives continue to create value for customers and build trust and are particularly important during tough economic times like these.
Further, we also recently improved our financing offers allowing customers to finance larger purchases for 12 months with no interest. We believe these types of offers support sales in a tough economy as well as gross margin.
Turning now to our growth strategy, we remain focused on increasing our market share through same-store sales growth, opening additional new stores in existing markets and acquiring competitors at attractive valuations. We expect full-year fiscal 2013 organic sales to be weak as a result of continued pressure on consumers and our poor results in the first half of the year.
However, we have been accelerating acquisitions so far in fiscal 2013 as opportunities have significantly increased during this tough operating environment. Importantly, these acquisitions will further expand our market share and our operating leverage, positioning Monro for continued profitable growth. We have and will continue to pursue these acquisitions in a very disciplined manner.
We have been very pleased with the results that we have seen thus far from the acquisitions we completed in fiscal 2012, which added $45 million in annualized sales. Both sales and earnings from these stores continue to be better than expected. Vespia was slightly accretive in fiscal 2012 and the Terry’s Tire Town stores were slightly accretive in the first 12 months of ownership, ahead of plan.
Fiscal 2013 is our strongest year ever for acquisition growth. We completed the Kramer Tires acquisition in April 2012, which added $25 million in annualized sales and gave us the number one market share in the Norfolk/Tidewater, Virginia market. We completed the acquisition of 18 retail stores from the Colony Tire business in early June, representing an additional $25 million in annualized sales and expanding our presence in North Carolina.
In August, we completed the acquisition of 17 service stores from Tuffy Associates representing an additional $9 million in annualized sales and expanding our footprint into Milwaukee, Wisconsin, a new contiguous market and filling in South Carolina. In October, we also completed the acquisition of five stores located in Rochester, New York from a former Midas franchisee for an additional $3 million in annualized sales. These completed acquisitions represent a combined total of $62 million or 9% in annualized sales growth.
More recently, we executed agreements to acquire multiple stores with annualized sales of at least $60 million. These deals are scheduled to close by December 31, 2012. We will provide additional details regarding these transactions in the near future after public announcements are made. Combined with our completed deals and before any acquisitions that may close in our fourth quarter, total fiscal 2013 annualized acquisition sales growth will be at least $122 million or 18%.
We continue to see more opportunities for attractive deals than we have in the past several years due to near-term seller concerns over the increasingly difficult operating environment, cost pressures and potential future income and capital gains tax increases. Notwithstanding these near term drivers, we believe the availability of suitable acquisition candidates at highly attractive valuations will continue into the coming year and beyond given that many of the independent tire dealers we are looking to acquire are getting older and nearing retirement age without an internal succession option.
Further, we expect that significantly rising costs related to ObamaCare will act as another stimulus of seller interest during calendar 2013. Also, if potential tax increases are pushed out another year, that will add to seller interest in calendar 2013.
We presently have 7 NDAs signed versus the 8 that we had at the end of the first quarter, even after having completed 2 of those deals since our last conference call. We have a strong pipeline of attractive deals lined up and plenty of liquidity combined with strong cash flow to complete these deals. We remain very disciplined on the prices we will take with earnings multiples being the most important factor at 7x to 7.5x EBITDA which generally translates to about 80% of sales. Importantly, we have not seen any competition for the deals we are involved in, just the sellers' expectations.
Let me now turn to our outlook for fiscal 2013. While consumer sentiment has improved recently, we believe high gas prices - high gas and food prices combined with high unemployment and the turbulent macro environment continue to negatively impact consumer purchasing behavior which affects Monro as a service and retail business as well as the whole industry. Trends in the third quarter of fiscal 2013 that remain more challenging than we had hoped.
October comps are down 6% while oil change traffic is up 1%. Our key sales categories remain down which indicates that consumers are still visiting us for basic low-cost maintenance but deferring larger purchases. Again, because consumers eventually have to get these needs addressed and with more normalized winter weather this year, we would expect that our traffic and sales trends to improve during the quarter. Remember, November is a key month for tire sales.
For the third quarter overall, we expect comparable store sales to be in the range of down 3% to flat adjusted for days, versus down 1% last year. We expect third quarter earnings per share to be in the range of $0.35 to $0.40 versus $0.42 for the third quarter of fiscal 2012, which included a $0.03 gain from the sale of 7 stores last year.
For the fiscal year - for the full fiscal year, taking into account sales contributions from our first - from our 3 first-half acquisitions, the acquisition we completed in October and the release - and the recently executed agreements to acquire additional stores this quarter, we now expect total sales to be in the range of $720 million the $735 million and comparable store sales to decline in the range of 3.5% to 2.0% adjusted for days. Based on these assumptions, we now estimate full fiscal year 2013 EPS of $1.36 to $1.50, which compares to EPS of $1.69 in fiscal 2012 or EPS of $1.65 last year, excluding the estimated $0.07 benefit from the 53rd week and the $0.03 in due diligence charges related to the Midas deal.
While we don’t have visibility on when the state of the consumer may ultimately improve, there are several positives that will impact the second half of fiscal 2013. We are up against flat comp store sales over this period and we expect that customers will turn to us for repairs and replacements that can no longer be deferred. We expect operating margins will benefit from improved sales on new oil pricing, lower tire costs and increasing contribution from our fiscal 2012 and 2013 acquisitions.
Importantly, with lower tire industry unit shipments, declining input costs and the expiration of the Chinese tire tariff, we expect tire costs to decline through the rest of the year. With the expiration of the tariff at the end of September, costs on tires imported from China are already lower by 10%, and we are seeing higher rebates and declining costs from other manufacturers. This will benefit our fourth quarter in particular and will be dependent upon what occurs with retail prices.
We are now - we are and will continue directing our tire purchases where we see the most attractive costs and opportunities for gross profit. We will also continue to carefully manage SG&A costs, but expect that for the full year, weak comparable store sales in the first half of fiscal 2013 and the fact that fiscal 2012 was a 53-week year, will offset these cost controls and the SG&A leverage provided by our acquisition. While trends remain challenging and we remain more cautious near term as a result of the previously-mentioned macroeconomic issues, our long-term confidence in the business and outlook for our industry remains very positive.
There are still 240 million cars on the road in the U.S. that are getting older. Consumers still can’t work on these vehicles. The number of overall service days is decreasing and the availability of suitable acquisition candidates is accelerating. Further, our key competitive advantages are still in place, including our low-cost operations, superior customer service, convenience, and our store density and 2 store brand strategy.
Importantly, we remain confident that fiscal 2013 will be a year like we saw back in fiscal 2008 where weaker sales trends, economic issues and higher costs set the stage for accelerated acquisitions in the next several years. This will allow us to leverage our business model and further improve our position as a low-cost and trusted service provider to continue to grow the business, improve operating margin and enhance shareholder returns.
Before I wrap up, I would like to give my opinion on some of the concerns that we’ve been hearing in the marketplace recently in terms of how they affect our sector and especially Monro.
One, some people are worried that new car sales increasing to 14 million or more could challenge our business. In our view, the 14 million to 14.5 million new car sales projected for calendar 2012 will not dent to growing age of the average vehicle in U.S. fleets, now a record 10.8 years, and that will drive our business going forward.
In particular, if more households had the ability to sign up to the 3,000 to 4,000 in annual new car payments, it’s hard to see how the other 85% of the households won’t be doing better and would likely reduce their deferrals on needed service and tires. Also, the U.S. market had 9 consecutive years of averaging approximately 17 million new cars sold through 2007, which has driven the number of vehicles in our sweet spot of 4 years to 12 years to an all-time high.
Two. Some are now concerned that while the average vehicle age - that while the average vehicle age increasing from 9 years to 10 years was a tailwind for the aftermarket and Monro, a 10.8 or 11 year-old vehicle is now too old for owners to repair and they’ll sign up for new car payments in this economy versus the $1,000 it takes to maintain their vehicle.
We don’t believe that new car sales are headed significantly higher anytime soon or that owners that hold their cars won’t eventually get needed oil changes, brakes and tires and other services that keep those older cars safe and running. In fact, vehicles age 13 years old and older are growing as a percentage of our traffic, and as a group have a higher ticket average than younger vehicles.
Three. Increasing competition from dealers and others is thought to be significantly hurting our business. The fewer remaining dealers have become more competitive over the past couple of years and we've probably given back the 1% comp sales gains we experienced during 2008 to 2011. However, we still hold important advantages over dealers, franchise operations and others in convenience, price, selection, customer service, store density and low-cost operations.
Also, I don’t view buying parts or tires for significantly more we do, even if you get them later that day or the next day and selling them for less as a viable strategy. I believe that the existing trend of decreasing service days in operation and industry consolidation as demonstrated by our acquisition of 5 smaller players just this year will continue, both benefiting Monro moving forward.
Four. We hear concerns about decreasing average miles driven negatively impacting our business. This concern is often linked to the economy in general and gas prices in particular. These macro factors do negatively impact miles driven. However, the decrease in average miles driven estimated for 2012 is about 100 miles less than 2011, which is only a fraction of an oil change and in my view, a minor impact on our business. What is more important is that one, those miles are being driven on older vehicles which leads to more required repairs; and two, the negative impact of higher gas prices on consumers.
Five. We hear concerns about our sales remaining weak while the economy and the consumer are showing some signs of improving. I’m probably more pessimistic about the economy and the consumer than most other retailers and believe that the consumer is in worse shape than most. That is a real risk to our business and all retail companies for that matter. Some of this concern maybe attributable to our concentration in the Northeast, Great-Atlantics and Mid-Atlantic states, which have lagged the rest of the country this year in part due to the extremely mild winter last year.
However, the weather the remainder of this year should be a benefit and further, the good news is that our services and products are a need, not a want purchase. Importantly, this tough economic environment benefits our acquisition strategy. In short, we believe the long-term trends for our business are still in place and remain very favorable; notwithstanding short term choppiness like we are currently experiencing.
Our 5 year plan continues to call for, on average, 15% top-line annual growth: 10% from acquisition, 3% to 4% from comps , and 1% to 2% from the Greenfield stores. The acquisition growth will be breakeven to slightly accretive year one, be $0.08 to $0.10 accretive year 2, and an additional $0.08 to $0.10 accretive year 3, for 20% acquisition growth, just double those EPS benefits. Over the period, that should improve operating margins approximately 300 basis points and deliver an average of 20% bottom line growth.
Before I turn the call over to Cathy, I would also like to thank each of our employees. Monro’s brand strength is a direct result of their hard work and consistent execution, providing superior customer service that is an integral part of Monro’s compelling customer value proposition.
With that, I’d like to turn the call over to Cathy for a more detailed review of our financial results. Cathy?