Bruce L. Caswell
Analyst · CJS Securities
Thanks, David, and good morning. Our third quarter results reflect another period of strong execution across the business and reinforce our confidence in the opportunities ahead even as our updated outlook reflects a customer-driven change on our VA MDE program. We continue to see the benefits of our technology investments, improving both the customer experience and financial performance of programs at scale. We believe that our deal shaping efforts focused on traditional RFP and nontraditional pipeline opportunities such as other transaction authorities or OTAs, align with the goals and direction of the federal government. Further, awards in the quarter, pending execution ramped nicely, setting the stage for sequential book-to-bill improvement. As David mentioned, during the quarter, the VA implemented a temporary pause in the performance incentive and disincentive mechanism covering all vendors. While affecting our outlook for that program in the near term, we believe that our ability to deliver solid earnings performance and continue investing in our long-term growth priorities remains intact. Our model is to support our customers as they navigate their own program environment, which can include responding to their legislative, regulatory and compliance needs. Importantly, we believe that our relationship with the customer remains strong as we continue to deliver high-quality work in a timely and cost-effective manner while making investments to further improve the veteran experience. On that front, a Draft Performance Work Statement or PWS, was just released, which is a key component of the draft RFP that we've been waiting on. While it's not a comprehensive view of the future contract, our preliminary analysis indicates that the scope of work, including all 6 regions that comprise our work today are included in this PWS. This bolsters our optimism about the next contract, and we believe our delivery track record, operational expertise, investments and trusted partnership position us well moving forward. More broadly, we believe that the encouraging demand signals across our markets, growing adoption of our technology-enabled solutions and a healthy set of opportunities support a positive outlook for the long term. Let's turn to an update on those opportunity metrics as well as awards as they provide an important lens into both the current procurement environment and where we see growth emerging over the medium and long term. Our total pipeline sales opportunities was $50.4 billion at June 30, comprised of approximately $2.9 billion in proposals pending, $2.4 billion in proposals in preparation and $45.1 billion in opportunities we are tracking. The share of new work in the total pipeline is 57%, and the U.S. Federal Services segment's share of the total pipeline is 55%. While some of the change in pipeline value compared to last quarter reflects normal pipeline maturation and portfolio management, it also reflects a larger dynamic, particularly in the federal civilian market, where certain opportunities have experienced procurement delays, scope revisions or in some cases, cancellation as agencies continue to navigate evolving priorities, budget considerations and the policy environment. As a result and reflecting this dynamic, in some cases, agencies are awarding more bridge contracts and short-term extensions and opportunities are maturing more slowly. That said, we continue to view the underlying demand environment as constructive with the latest total value of opportunities remaining substantial and supporting our long-term growth objectives. We strive to maintain a disciplined target-rich pipeline that reflects opportunities where we believe there's a clear path to award and successful execution. Our year-to-date signed contract awards as of the end of the third quarter were $1.25 billion of total contract value. These awards translate into a book-to-bill ratio of approximately 0.5x using our standard reporting for the trailing 12-month period. In addition, at June 30, we had a balance of another $1.35 billion worth of contracts that have been awarded but not yet signed. Encouragingly, our balance of awarded but not yet signed contracts represents a significant step-up from the last quarter and was driven primarily by successful longer-term recompete activity. There are a number of attractive new work opportunities in our pipeline associated with H.R. 1, also known as the Working Families Tax Cut Act, which we believe will increasingly contribute to growth as we exit the fourth quarter. We adjusted our timing expectations as customers digest recently published interim federal rules and navigate their state legislative and program environments. Let me share what we're seeing at the moment with regard to Medicaid community engagement or work requirements. As planned, organic growth in U.S. Services is expected to return in the fourth quarter as beneficiary outreach and engagement activity drives higher volumes on several existing contracts. Prospective customer discussions, while highly active, have progressed in many cases, more slowly than expected, considering they are less than 6 months until the go-live date. There's little doubt that the complexity of the recently released interim final rule by CMS has created additional uncertainty for states as they determine how best to operationalize compliance requirements, particularly as they relate to medically frail beneficiaries within existing program structures. We know from experience that large-scale program changes involving technology, operations, policy and constituent communications simply take time to implement, particularly when they affect programs serving millions of beneficiaries and state government customers are deliberate with their decisions. That said, absent a change in statute, the underlying need for administrative support, beneficiary engagement, compliance monitoring and technology enablement is expected to remain intact. Altogether, we believe that the demand for community engagement solutions remains positive. And as states continue to evaluate options, we remain optimistic that Maximus has an important role to play. SNAP meanwhile, continues to advance in some ways more quickly than Medicaid-related opportunities. With more than 40 demonstrations of our Accuracy Assistant tool completed and 150 customer meetings, the level of interest and engagement has grown in recent months. We've responded to active procurements, submitted unsolicited proposals and continue to engage with customers regarding approaches to improving program integrity and payment accuracy. Notably, the latest SNAP performance data indicates that payment error rates have not materially improved. The recently released USDA fiscal year 2025 payment error rate or PER data showed a national average of approximately 10.6% compared to roughly 10.9% in fiscal year 2024. The newly released data reinforces what many states have been anticipating as they evaluate future financial exposure and operational priorities. While the PER varies across states, the overall results indicate that payment accuracy remains a significant challenge across much of the country. As a reminder, under H.R. 1, states may elect to use either the just released fiscal year 2025 PER or fiscal year 2026 PER due out in June 2027 when determining their SNAP benefit cost share, which becomes effective October 1, 2027. However, regardless of their PER, states will be responsible for a 25% increase in the SNAP administrative cost share beginning October 1 of this year. This creates both a near-term administrative burden and a longer-term financial incentive to reduce error rates. Ultimately, we believe our combination of program expertise, delivery capabilities, analytical tools and technology integration know-how positions Maximus well as states seek practical paths to improving accuracy while preserving the citizen experience. I'd like to turn to the pace of AI adoption, which continues to accelerate inside Maximus and with our customers in alignment with our strategy and investments. Importantly, we're not simply reacting to customer requirements. We're helping shape practical AI-enabled solutions often through our own internal use that customers can adopt with confidence. Today, approximately 75% to 80% of the new bids and rebids in our pipeline contain explicit requirements or evaluation criteria related to AI. We are also seeing AI procurements become more sophisticated with agencies placing greater emphasis on governance, security, transparency, human oversight, responsible AI practices and the ability to demonstrate measurable mission outcomes. Increasingly, AI is no longer treated as an innovation add-on, but is becoming an expected component of modern service delivery and operational transformation strategies. Similarly, AI enablement through continuous innovation has become part of our operating rhythm inside Maximus. As just one example, AI-based improvements to core business processes such as IVR and script optimization, chatbot enhancement and proactive text and e-mail engagement in just 5 contracts yielded a better customer experience and a 3.5% operating margin improvement for that group. So in addition to building AI into our solutions for new work, we are systematically updating existing operations that are designed to better meet our customers' needs. Further, through Maximus Ventures, our strategic investment arm, we continue to identify innovative and differentiated technologies that we believe can strengthen future customer solutions and create new pathways for growth by accelerating adoption across government markets. One example is our direct investment in Spectro Cloud, which is an AI infrastructure management software provider rather than an AI model company, providing an advanced platform that helps enterprises, public sector organizations, neo clouds and sovereign clouds build and operate production AI infrastructure with greater control over cost, security and governance. We believe that capabilities like these are what allow government customers to move beyond experimentation and deploy AI securely at scale, particularly those in highly regulated areas, including defense. We view Spectro Cloud as one component of a broader ecosystem necessary to help government customers accelerate AI adoption while maintaining the security, governance and operational controls that those mission environments require. Our objective through these venture investments is to bring differentiated capabilities to our customers, including preferred access and co-development arrangements where appropriate, creating strategic partnerships that are designed to accelerate deployment, strengthen our competitive position, support revenue growth and increase customer value. Let me close with an update on the defense and national security market, which remains a priority in our long-term growth strategy. While many civilian agencies continue to experience procurement delays and budget uncertainty, we believe the Department of War procurement engine is functioning more consistently. Demand signals remain strong and our engagement with customers continues to expand. As part of our strategic planning, we identified a total Maximus addressable market of defense-related opportunities of nearly $47 billion, only a small portion of which is reflected in our reported pipeline. Our objective is to ensure we are positioned to participate in that opportunity set, both through traditional and nontraditional procurement paths. In addition to the OTAs I mentioned earlier, I'm pleased that the Hackathon platform we created, bringing government, industry and academia together has generated pathways to new programs of record for our customers. We're evaluating how we expand our capabilities, customer access and relevance, past performance qualifications and market presence, particularly in advance of the arrival of opportunities we believe will emerge over the next several years. Customer intimacy remains paramount, understanding mission needs, helping agencies address technical debt and bringing modern technology-enabled delivery models to government customers through highly accountable performance-based arrangements are all areas where we believe Maximus can differentiate. Importantly, our defense and national security business is already demonstrating success with notable key wins at the Air Force and Transportation Security Administration. We continue to see evidence that large government customers are increasingly willing to consider capable alternatives outside of the traditional provider ecosystem. We believe this is a sustainable direction of travel and one that creates opportunities for differentiated companies with proven execution. More broadly, our strategy helps support a continued diversification of the company by expanding our exposure to durable growth markets while reducing concentration over time. In closing, we continue to see a healthy mix of opportunities and navigable challenges as we look ahead to fiscal year 2027. The procurement environment remains understandably uneven. Certain legislative opportunities continue to evolve and customers continue to navigate a complex budget and operating environment. At the same time, we're encouraged by the momentum we're seeing in areas such as SNAP, AI-enabled solutions and defense and national security. We are continuing to invest thoughtfully, strengthen our capabilities and position the company for long-term growth. As always, our focus remains on controlling the controllables, delivering for our customers, executing with discipline and urgency and creating sustainable value for our shareholders. And with that, we'll open the line for Q&A. Operator?