Monish Patolawala
Analyst · Barclays.
Yes. I think, Julian, it's a great question on Safety and Industrial. So to answer your specific question first on the impact, could it be negative on a year-over-year basis? As we said, and just a reminder, in 2019, we used to have revenue approximately $600 million of disposable respirators that went up to $1.4 billion in 2020. And as I look at the second half, we told you there could be a risk of $100 million to $300 million, which is the range of where we think disposable respirator volume would come down on a year-over-year basis. And if we go to that higher end of the range, which is $300 million, yes, the answer is you could definitely see negative volumes. What we have been doing as a part of this as health care demand has waned due to lower hospitalizations due to COVID and increase in electives is we have been moving production out from the hospital channel to different parts, which is industrial and governments, which we are actively doing. The other piece of Safety and Industrial is, as I mentioned in Q2, we have seen growth in quite a few other segments of Safety and Industrial, whether it's in our respiratory portfolio with our safety portfolio, with head and face masks, whether you've seen us increase in our abrasive business, in our adhesives business, our roofing granules. So all the other segments, automotive aftermarket, have seen increase. And depending on how the economy plays itself out, and as long as industrial activity continues, you should see continued growth in those areas. And our current assumption is that long term, those markets will come back. I think it's going to be a little fluid in the second half, depending on how COVID plays itself out. To answer your second question on margin, you're right, as we have seen in 2019 versus '20, we did get benefited a lot by the volume leverage that we got across Safety and Industrial. So ultimately, where volume lands in the second half will have an impact on where margins ultimately go. We are actively working on price increases, broad-based in that segment. It's -- how much of that is offset by price and raws and logistics cost is the second offset. And the third one is the ongoing legal fees or reserves that we have taken, will be the third one. And then the last one I would say is what do we invest in growth, productivity and sustainability and especially growth, because as industrial activity goes up in '22 and '23, we're going to continue to invest in that segment. So put all that together, that's how we see where margins are going to land.