Hessam Nadji
Analyst · Citibank. Please proceed with your question.
Sure, Peter. I think it's important in answering that question to bifurcate the multi-family rental industry into the luxury high-end units and the other, let's say, 90% of the bell curve that has workforce housing, older stock of apartments, usually smaller assets built in the '80s, '90s – '70s, '80s, '90s and so on because there are really two different worlds. In the luxury sector, high-end apartments, the construction levels have been at record levels over the past, really, three years. And after a big drought of virtually no supply coming on after the recession, 2009, 2010, 2011, we saw those volumes pick up and hit record levels for two or three years in a row and that continues. So if you look at that at a, if you will, surface level, it is very concerning to see 300,000 units a year coming out of the ground over the past three years, year after year. But when you dig into it, I can tell you that the top 10 metros for new construction of apartments account for nearly half of all that volume. So those 10 markets currently have been at risk of overbuilding, and some of them have become overbuilt without a doubt, but it leaves the other half for the entire rest of the country, which is a rounding error in terms of a percent increase in rental stock. And so the industry as a whole is not being overbuilt, but pockets of overbuilding in those specific metros are certainly happening. Velocity of transactions certainly gets affected when there's overbuilding. That's why some of the $20 million plus apartment statistics on the sale side we're seeing do show a pretty big pullback because all of a sudden the bid/ask spread gets higher, especially in those markets and the market needs to recalibrate. On the workforce housing, which, by the way, is, by far, what Marcus & Millichap specializes in, older, smaller assets where there's no new supply, this has not really affected the marketplace, and those occupancies are still very high. Those rent growth numbers are still very healthy, and the bid/ask spread in that category is much less. But that market has been on fire for the past six or seven years, so a little bit of a pause in the growth in transaction activity was not all that unusual. And we're not concerned with anything structural happening to apartments. The overbuilding, I really don't think is at levels that are going to affect the industry as a whole. We just need to get through the current phase of this cycle and see transaction velocity pick back up.