Hessam Nadji
Analyst · Citi. Please proceed with your question
Thank you, John. Good afternoon, everybody. My comments today are intended to provide an overview of the commercial real estate market and, therefore, are not necessarily specific to Marcus & Millichap. The global economic issues and market volatility in the third quarter that John referenced in his opening remarks increase uncertainty for real estate investors along with somewhat tighter underwriting standards by lenders. I'd like to address these factors on today's call. Looking back at the root source of the news and market turbulence in the third quarter, China's currency moves and economic slowdown were the largest factors as opposed to any significant domestic issues. This poses the question as to how global concerns could impact the US economy and commercial real estate. To start with, US economy now stands four million jobs ahead of its prior employment peak with a net gain of 12.7 million jobs since this recovery began. The unemployment and under-employment rates now stand at seven-year lows and are gradually falling. Employment is the most critical driver of demand for commercial real estate, and the steady pace of job growth has pushed occupancies for all property types to healthy levels. We saw further occupancy gains during the third quarter ranging from 30 to 60 basis points year-over-year in all property sectors across the board. Keeping in mind that consumption makes up 68% of the US economic output, core retail sales are now 20% above the 2007 peak and growing at 3% to 4% a year annually. Besides being a critical indicator of a strong economy, strength from the consumer side is behind a robust recovery in retail real estate and the housing market, which includes apartment rentals that are still seeing above-average rent growth. Professional business services, health care, and education and train transportation are the top job-producing sectors and tend to generate higher-than-average wages. These sectors made up 63% of the 2.8 million jobs that were added in the country in the last 12 months. This is translating to demand for office, industrial, and health care real estate and another supportive force behind demand for apartment rentals. In fact, the rental market continues to break records with the second quarter reaching the highest absorption of units in the past five years followed by a solid 88,000 units absorbed in the third quarter. In an increasingly global and interconnected economy, there is no doubt that we're vulnerable to shocks and bouts of heightened uncertainty. The strong dollar is starting to weigh on exports, dollar in the manufacturing, while the business and real estate cycles are both maturing. As we've indicated for some time, the rate of growth is normalizing as a result of all these dynamics. However, the key positive data points that I summarized on top of a healthy banking system with ample liquidity, point to a strong economic foundation here in the US amid global volatility. We are simply much better positioned to withstand speed bumps and headwinds than anytime in the recent past. Another reason we expect the economic and real estate expansion cycle to continue is the gradual pace of the recovery itself. The slow pace of growth, lack of an inflation bubble, and lower energy prices are helping to prolong the cycle in our view. Ironically, the slowdown in job growth that materialized in August and September, is in combination with the global growth concern gave the Fed reason to pause. Even if the Fed resumes plans to raise interest rates as early as December, expectations are for moderate increases that will align with fresh economic readings. Rising interest rates will not be a surprise to real estate investors according to our most recent surveys and contributed to acceleration of some transactions into the earlier part of 2015. As for the commercial real estate outlook, we continue to point out the lack of overbuilding as the core strength for the industry. Even for apartments, which are seeing the largest volume of new development of any product type, there are only a few markets with pockets of overbuilding in the high-end urban product. For the apartment industry as a whole, especially in the Class B and C segments, which comprises the vast majority of the rental stock, demand continues to exceed supply. This lack of overbuilding combined with a sizable drop in vacancies over the past few years, provides a critical cushion rarely seen at this point of an expansion cycle. Even if job growth slows down from its current pace of 2% a year, or 2.8 million jobs, there should still be enough demand for space to keep both occupancies and rents rising. We frequently talked about a market normalization and investment sales as opposed to a repeat of the 2008-2009 near shutdown of sales velocity. This expectation is primarily based on the more gradual and steady nature of the current real estate cycle versus the frothy leverage-driven runup we saw from 2004 to 2007. With health property fundamentals, low interest rate, an accommodative Fed, and, most importantly, very competitive yields, capital will likely continue to flow into commercial real estate in the foreseeable future. Based on our preliminary estimates, total market transactions were up somewhere between 4% to 6% during the third quarter of 2015 compared to the prior year and basically flat over the second quarter of 2015. This still represents an active and vibrant investment sales market with over 50,000 transactions and $450 billion in trading volume estimated for the last 12 months. It also points to ongoing strength and sustainability in sales velocity supported by well-balanced lender underwriting and solid property performance. In addition to this market backdrop, for us at MMI, the alignment with the private client market typically transacting in the $1 million to $10 million price range remains a bedrock of strength. Over the long term, the $1 million to $10 million private client segment has proven to be at least 30% less volatile than sales in higher-priced assets as transactions are typically driven by personal factors such as death, divorce, partnership breakups and other circumstances. In terms of sheer size, once again, in the last 12-month period, 83% of all commercial property sales and 60% of the commission pool were in this segment. For MMI, this segment accounted for 89% of transactions and 77% of revenue. I'd like to emphasize that MMI's $1 million to $10 million transaction count increased 17.8% as John shared earlier, and our overall transaction count increased by 10.4% year-over-year. Supported by the expansion of hiring into secondary and tertiary markets and higher yields, transaction momentum in these locations outpaced the overall market. Showing an increase of 19% and 24%, respectively, year-over-year. As we have noted before, the movement of capital for these markets is another positive indicator for MMI, as 45% of our transactions are typically sold to out-of-state buyers. Looking forward, we expect additional job gains through the remainder of 2015 and into 2016 will support commercial property performance and continued growth and property sales at normalized rates. In our view, the biggest risk to a favorable outlook is still limited to a significant unexpected event or economic shock. With that, I'll turn the call over to Marty for an in-depth look at our financial results. Marty?