C. Nye
Analyst · Jefferies.
Phil, thanks for the question. I would say several things. One, the infrastructure piece of it that you mentioned last should continue to be really constructive going into next year. I mean, if we think about the notion that we still got 66% of total highway and bridges, cumulative obligations to go, half of the dollars is still are yet to be invested on the public side. That should be really constructive for a while. The other piece of it that I think is worth noting, if we're looking at our top 10 states and you're looking at state DOTs year-over-year as we go into 2026, they're up between 6% and 7%. So if we look at California, that's up 6%. Texas is up double digits. Minnesota, which is an important state for us, is nicely up double digits. Georgia, up 7%. So again, what we're seeing on public is attractive. But I would draw your attention to Slide 12 today in the supplemental slides because I think that really gives you a good visceral take of what we see going on relative to nonres activity, particularly on the heavy side. And we listed out in there across geographies what we're seeing relative to data centers, what we're seeing relative to warehouses and distribution, and what we're seeing relative to manufacturing. I will tell you this. I've always asked my team, "Hey, do me a favor, call me with good news." Because typically, I hear from people when things are more challenging that occur. I'm getting more text and more e-mails than I ever would have thought at this time of year on the type of bidding activity that they're seeing right now in geographies that matter a lot to us and on projects that I think can be very impactful going to next year. So I'm trying to give you anecdotally and factually, Phil, what you're talking about relative to what's going on with public, what's going on with heavy nonres. And again, part of what I've been taken by is actually how well light nonres has held up through the cycle despite the fact that housing has not been in a particularly good place. Look, if we continue to see constructive activity relative to interest rates, et cetera, on housing, I think when we get into half 2 next year, it's not that I think housing is going to be on fire, it's going to start to recover. And as we see that combined with what I think is a very attractive public sector, a good, healthy, heavy nonres, I think that's going to be awfully constructive, number one, the single-family housing; and number two, even bolster up what has been a more resilient light non-res than I would have thought.