Howard Nye
Analyst · Stephens Inc
Thanks, Jim, with the successful completion of an outstanding first half of 2020, we remain laser focused on managing our business through the macroeconomic upheaval from COVID-19 and related governmental responses. While in July product demand and pricing trends across our markets remain broadly consistent with second quarter, we feel it is premature to reinstate full-year 2020 earnings guidance given the uncertainty regarding the pandemic, potential phrase for stimulus and infrastructure reauthorization. Nonetheless, we remain highly confident in the fundamental strength and underlying drivers of our business guided by our strategic operating analysis and review or SOAR plan. We expect pricing resiliency and disciplined cost management to continue supporting the company’s near-term performance. As the economy resets from COVID-19, we believe favorable pricing trends for our products will continue supported by disciplined locally driven pricing strategy and attractive geographic footprint. For aggregates specifically, we anticipate full-year 2020 pricing will increase 3% to 4% from the prior year. This range is slightly below our pre COVID-19 expectations given year-over-year geographic and product mix trends and slightly delayed price increases in certain markets. Texas cement pricing is also expected to remain resilient due to the state’s tight supply demand dynamics. And the fact that our team markets are by design largely insulated from waterborne imports. Healthy aggregates in cement pricing trends should benefit our targeted downstream operations. Existing customer backlogs support the company’s shipment levels in the near-term and certain regions where we operate, this year’s weather has been more disruptive of construction activity and project cadence, than the pandemic. Yet we believe the industry will likely see a gradual, but not precipitous temporary slowing in product demand over the next few quarters as businesses and governments address budget shortfalls resulting from COVID-19. That said, the degrees or decline and recovery will vary by end use market and geography and will be influenced by future governmental actions. Infrastructure, construction, particularly for aggregates intensive highways, roads and streets is expected to be the most near-term resilient as contractors advanced projects that have been awarded and funded. However, State Departments of Transportation or DOTs may decrease the scale or postpone the timing of future construction is very balanced lower revenue collections and other short-term funding needs relating to the COVID-19 impact, particularly if there is no near-term federal assistance. These impacts will vary by state. For example, Texas DOT scheduled lettings for fiscal year 2021, which begins September 1st are currently planned at $7 billion comparable to fiscal year 2020. Earlier this month, Texas DOT also reiterated its $77 billion 10-year unified transportation plan. To ease funding shortfalls to its DOT budget, Colorado will issue certificates of participation to advance plan projects, the majority of which are concentrated along the mega region following the I-25 corridor, which has been the strategic focus of our Rocky Mountain business. Of our Top 10 states, Carolina DOT faces the toughest near-term funding challenges. As a reminder, NCDOT temporarily suspended awards for certain projects in response to pre-COVID-19 funding issues, and other factors. Since then, new contract advertisements have been further delayed. For the near-term NCDOT will benefit from $700 million in build NC bond revenues to fund existing transportation programs. Longer term, we anticipate transportations ballot initiatives, as well as new revenue enhancing recommendations from the NC first commission, which is tasked with evaluating North Carolina’s growing transportation investment needs and ensuring that critical financial resources are available. Despite some near-term DOT headlines, the passage of a reauthorized comprehensive federal infrastructure package will provide multiyear upside, while it is unlikely a successor bill will be agreed upon and signed into law prior to Fixing America's Surface Transportation Act expiration on September 30th, we feel confidence new legislation will be enacted and provide the first sizable increase in federal transportation funding in more than 15-years. When this occurs, it will be a big win for our industry and for Martin Marietta. For non-residential construction activity on existing projects has continued, some commercial and institutional projects in the design or planning stages are being delayed or cancelled. The Dodge Momentum Index or DMI, a monthly measure of a first report for non-residential building projects and planning, which has historically led construction spending for non-residential building by a full-year is down 20% from its most recent peak in July of 2018. However to contextualize the June reading the Great Recession peak to trough DMI decline was 62%. And prudently since the Great Recession, Martin Marietta has purposefully shifted our non-residential exposure to be more heavy industrial focus, as we have expanded our geographic footprint along major commerce corridors. Aggregates intensive warehouses, distribution centers and data centers are expected to lead non-residential activity as businesses increase capacity for ecommerce activity, secure regional supply chains and become more reliant on cloud and network services. Further large liquefied natural gas or LNG projects along the Texas Gulf Coast that are actively underway have broadly continued. However, start dates for the next wave of projects have been postponed. Longer term, we believe non-residential construction activity could benefit from more companies streamlining their supply chains and repatriating manufacturing operations back to the United States providing potential multiyear upside to heavy industrial construction. Residential construction is rebounding more quickly than anticipated by homebuilders and third-party forecasters. After decline in April, the National Association of homebuilders housing market index are widely recognized survey designed to measure sentiment for the U.S. single family housing market return to pre-pandemic levels in July, signaling that residential growth may lead to an overall economic recovery. Consistent with recent homebuilder commentary activity has strengthened as Martin Marietta states have reopened, demonstrating pent up housing demand following the COVID-19 related pause in the spring selling season. Nationally housing starts remain below the 50-year annual average of 1.5 million despite notable population gains. Freddie Mac estimates that 2.5 million housing units are needed to address the current nationwide housing shortage. This situation is particularly evident in states with significant under supply, including Texas, Colorado, North Carolina and Florida, which are all in our top 10 states. These trends, along with historically low mortgage rates bode well for future expansion in single family housing activity, which is two to three times more aggregates intensive and multi-family housing given the typical ancillary non-residential and infrastructure construction activity. Also longer term, we expect Martin Marietta to benefit across all three of our primary end uses from accelerated to organization trends, as for homebuilders and the shift to remote work encourage more prospective homebuyers to move to smaller metro or suburban locations. Our leading Southeastern and Southwestern footprint provides us a distinct competitive advantage in regions with diverse employment opportunities, land availability, favorable climate and a lower cost of living. Moving forward, we are confident in Martin Marietta’s opportunities to build on our successful track record of financial and operational outperformance. SOAR 2025, our strategic plan for the next five years will be finalized this year, and provides the framework to support our capital performance, price discipline, cost management, sustainable practices, talent development, and succession planning initiatives. We have already made great strides on these endeavors. Earlier this month, we streamlined our business structure into five operating divisions East, Central and Southwest, West, and Magnesia Specialties. This new structure better aligns our business product offerings and geographies, provides experienced executives with increased responsibilities and opportunities, strengthens our ability to provide outstanding customer service and further enhances our industry leading cost profile. In closing, we are all living in unprecedented and dynamic times. And that will likely persists as the pandemic continues unabated. Moving forward and our attractive underlying fundamentals, strategic priorities and world-class teams position Martin Marietta to responsibly navigate today’s challenging environment and to drive sustainable long-term growth and shareholder value. Overall, we continue to feel confident about the future and our plan to continue building on Martin Marietta’s long track record of success and delivering sustainable, value creation and superior returns for investors. If the operator will now provide the required instructions, we will turn our attention to addressing your questions.