Jeffrey Stutz
Analyst · Sidoti & Company
This is Jeff. I'll start and others can join in if they have some additional color they want to add. Maybe the first thing that I would say is just to level set, and Greg, I think you made reference to this in your note that you published this morning, but I think it's important that everyone understand. Our fourth quarter earnings per share reflects a lower-than-normal effective tax rate. So, let me start with our adjusted effective tax rate for the fourth quarter was just under 12%, and it was lower as a result of some favorable items that were all good news and will generate favorable cash flow for the business but lower that rate from typical levels. Our normalized tax rate you can think of as being somewhere between 21% and 23%, as you probably know, Greg. And so, what were those favorable items? We had about $4 million of favorable tax items, $2 million of which came from the utilization of an NOL as well as we sold off some state tax credits that we were able to find a buyer for, which was a great benefit to us. And then we had true ups that made up about another $2 million. So, there's about $4 million of favorability in the tax rate. If you normalize for that in the fourth quarter, then you'd see sequential improvement going from Q4 to Q1 in earnings per share, which is what you would expect, because our guide for revenue was higher in Q1. So, I just wanted to make sure we level set with the effective rate. Now to your question, within the guide, you look at the drivers of gross margin. It's no secret. We're feeling the impact of inflationary pressures in the business. We expect commodity pressures sequentially from Q4 into Q1 will drive an estimated $4 million of increased costs that will pressure gross margins. Now, we're doing everything that we can, and there are things we can do. We’ve put a larger than normal price increase in effect effective beginning of June. But as you know, it takes time for that to layer itself into the results on the contract business. So, we'll start to feel the benefits of that as we move through the first half of the fiscal year. We're also feeling it in the area of direct labor costs like so many companies are, and we expect that that's going to drive an estimated $1 million of sequential increased costs. So, those are two inflationary pressures that we're going to feel the impact of in our Q1 gross margin. Now, we'll offset some of that, not all of it, but some of it with improved leverage because as we've said, order rates are improving in the North American contract business, and that will translate itself into higher production levels, and that helps our gross margin story. And then, you also have – it's probably worth highlighting, -- as that North American contract business begins to pick up steam in terms of revenue, you have a channel mix, basically difference in the business from where we've been, right? So, as the contract business continues to grow, you'll see a higher blend of contract gross margins, which are structurally lower than you see in the retail business, so that's just a mix issue as much as anything. And then, lastly, and I'll pause, make sure that I'm getting to your question. In the area of operating expenses, you've got higher sequential revenue in Q1. And with that, you've got variability in the operating expenses that come with that as well as some additional investments that we're making in the area of IT and digital, which isn't new news. These are initiatives that we've been talking about that are going to cause operating expenses to be up a little bit sequentially from Q4. So, hopefully, that gives you the kind of the major pieces that speak to the earnings per share trend.