Ilene Fiszel Bieler
Analyst
Sure. Thanks for the question, Simon. So I mean, it’s always hard to call something a bottom at hot particularly when you’re dealing with trading behavior and when you’re talking about a rate environment and you’re talking about central banks making changes to economic policy. So I don’t think I want to go there. But I think what we need to look at and think about is where do we see the rate environment and how do we see trading behavior, right? Right now, we know that the most recent, I think, if we look at CME, Watch, FedWatch, right, the most recent call for rate cuts is, I want to say, one to two. Just a little while ago, it wasn’t so long ago that we saw three to four. And when you saw three to four as what people were calling for, you see folks wanting to trade out further on the curve. That’s pretty normal behavior if you see that type of a steepening. Now we’ve seen a bit of a bear steepener and it’s been quite unusual what you saw most recently, some would call it a bear steepener and that’s not what we would expect in a rate-cutting cycle. And so having said that, as I said most recently, with sort of different outcomes in terms of economic policy decisions, things changing quite rapidly. You’re also seeing, we saw just in the last few days, as I said before, change in behavior on duration. And just honestly, it went from quite quickly from, call it, eight years of weighted average years to maturity to 9% [ph]. Now I can’t tell you it’s staying there, but I can tell you that we saw a quite quick change in behavior. So you have to look at things like all the normal things you would think of bond traders looking at what’s happening with inflation, what’s happening in those numbers? How are we seeing what the Fed is saying there or in terms of where the rate environment is going to come out. And so all of these things matter. What do we think is going to happen in terms of will there be a soft landing? Will it take longer for the Fed to come down in rates. I mean, all of these things matter. But again, we really have to see what’s going to happen in the environment. We have to see where the yields are going to turn out as well because as you know, I mean we’ve talked about the sensitivity before. When you see a one year increase on the platform and weighted average years to maturity, that can be worth about $15 for us in high grade. And if you see yields come in 100 basis points, that can be worth $3 to $5, right? So all of this is – we’ve got to see what happens in the macro environment.