Earnings Labs

McCormick & Company, Incorporated (MKC)

Q1 2022 Earnings Call· Tue, Mar 29, 2022

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Transcript

Kasey Jenkins

Management

Good morning. This is Kasey Jenkins, Senior Vice President of Corporate Strategy and Investor Relations. Thank you for joining today's first quarter earnings call. To accompany this call, we posted a set of slides at ir.mccormick.com. We will begin with remarks from Lawrence Kurzius, Chairman, President and CEO; and Mike Smith, Executive Vice President and CFO, and we'll close with a question-and-answer session. During this call, we will refer to certain non-GAAP financial measures. The nature of those non-GAAP financial measures and the related reconciliations to the GAAP results are included in this morning's press release and slides. In our comments, certain percentages are rounded. Please refer to our presentation for complete information. In addition, as a reminder, today's presentation contains projections and other forward-looking statements. Actual results could differ materially from those projected. The company undertakes no obligation to update or revise publicly any forward-looking statements, whether because of new information, future events or other factors. Please refer to our forward-looking statements on Slide 2 for more information. I will now turn the discussion over to Lawrence.

Lawrence Kurzius

Management

Good morning, everyone. Thanks for joining us. Before I go to business, it is with great sadness that I mention the passing of Buzz McCormick, who is 1 of the most beloved and admired leaders in McCormick's history. Buzz's career at McCormic span 50 years rising through the ranks across many functions becoming President and CEO in 1987 and serving as Chairman of the Board for a total of 11 years until his retirement for the third time in 1999. As CEO, Buzz focused McCormick on flavor by divesting noncore businesses and driving category leadership in spices and seasonings, setting the course for McCormick to be the global leader in flavor. Notably, McCormick's market cap grew by 4x under his leadership. Buzz will not only be remembered for his enduring legacy of performance but just as importantly, for his deep commitment to the well-being of all McCormick employees. He truly made McCormick a great place to work, leaving his biggest accomplishment as a CEO is helping all McCormick employees have a better life. Today, as we reflect on his life and its contributions, we know that his legacy will live on. He has inspired many generations of McCormick leaders with his passion for people, focus on flavor and commitment to delivering shareholder value. Next, I'd like to comment on the situation in Ukraine. First and foremost, we extend our deepest sympathies to the people of Ukraine and hope for an immediate end to the conflict and the suffering of innocent people. As we previously announced, we suspended our operations in Russia in mid-March. Our operations in Ukraine have been paused to focus on the safety of our employees and their families. Our thoughts are with the people impacted by these tragic events, particularly our employees who we continue to support…

Mike Smith

Management

Thanks, Lawrence, and good morning, everyone. Starting on Slide 13. Our top line growth continues to be strong. During the first quarter, we grew constant currency sales 4%, driven by pricing actions across both segments and incremental sales from our FONA acquisition. Consumer segment sales declined 2% in constant currency due to lapping high demand in all 3 regions last year, with a partial offset from pricing. On a 2-year basis, compared to the first quarter of 2020, constant currency sales grew 30% with double-digit growth in all 3 regions, reflecting the sustained shift to at-home consumption higher than pre-pandemic levels. On Slide 14, consumer sales in the Americas increased 2% in constant currency, driven by pricing actions, partially offset by lower volume of the product mix due to lapping last year's elevated demand. Branded products led the growth with strength in McCormick, Zatarain's, Stubb's, Otay, Simply Asia, Frank's RedHot and French's, partially offset by a decline in private label. In EMEA, constant currency consumer sales declined 9% from a year ago, driven by lower volume and product mix, most significantly in Vahiné homemade dessert products due to lapping last year's high demand across the region. This decline was partially offset by pricing actions. Constant currency consumer sales in the Asia Pacific region declined 6%, driven by the exit of lower-margin business in India. China's consumer and branded foodservice demand partially related to the Chinese New Year impact Laurence mentioned earlier, also contributed to the decline. These declines were partially offset by pricing actions. Turning to our Flavor Solutions segment on Slide 17. We grew first quarter constant currency sales 14%, including a 2% contribution from incremental FONA sales in December. As a reminder, we acquired FONA on December 30, 2020. The remaining increase was driven by higher volume and…

Lawrence Kurzius

Management

Thank you, Mike. Now that Mike has shared our financial results and outlook in more detail, I would like to recap the key takeaways as seen on Slide 28. We delivered solid first quarter results in line with our expectations with strong sales growth on top of our 20% constant currency growth last year. We are confident that the hard work and dedication of our employees will continue to drive momentum. We recognize we're operating in a challenging global environment. Through the execution of our strategies, we've successfully grown long-term value environment over the years regardless of the environment. Our long-term fundamentals that drove our performance are stronger than ever. The strength of our business model, the value of our products and capabilities, our alignment with long-term consumer trends that are in our favor and the attractive categories we are in, provide a strong foundation for long-term sustainable growth. We're confident that our broad and advantaged flavor portfolio, our robust operating momentum and effective growth strategies will drive another year of strong growth in 2022 and build value for our shareholders. Now let's turn to your questions.

Operator

Operator

And our first question today will be coming from the line of Andrew Lazar with Barclays.

Andrew Lazar

Analyst

McCormick reiterated its full year outlook, right, despite a worsening in inflation outlook and still dynamic operating environment. And as you noted, now requires an even more significant margin inflection in the back half of the year to stay within sort of your full year gross margin guidance. So I was hoping you could speak a little bit to what gives you the visibility that is playing out. And I know you detailed some items on the last call, such as pricing and lapping COVID costs, smoother cadence of ERP spend and CCI saves and such. So perhaps you can remind us of these and share if there are any additions or changes to the above?

Lawrence Kurzius

Management

Thanks, Andrew. I'll start on this and then let Mike follow up and talk about those specific items. But first of all, I want to emphasize that first quarter is really right up in the middle with our expectations. And it all starts with strong demand and strong top line performance. We expect to see continued strong demand as we go through the year. And as we go through the second quarter, in particular, more pricing action goes into effect, which on top of that strong demand and with the relatively low elasticity that we're seeing will translate into both strong top line and strong bottom line growth in the second half of the year. This is in line with the guidance that we talked about on our last call at the end of -- when we gave guidance for the year initially. Mike, you want to talk about those specific guidance.

Mike Smith

Management

Yes. I think the thing that's really changed since the first quarter for the year-end call when we talked about the inflation moving from mid-teens to mid to high teens. Really, there's been a bit of an acceleration in things like fuel cost that will impact our second quarter. But we see on average across the year, that cost inflation around the same mid- to high single teens, but it's been moved forward into the second quarter. Pricing, though, is continuing to build, as Lawrence said. For the full year, before we said on the last call, mid- to high pricing impact, we're at the high -- we'll be at the high end of that now. And actually, in the second 6, we'll be in a low double-digit pricing impact range, which gives us more confidence about the second half profit realization. As you mentioned, there were some other factors. ERP spending is up in the first versus last year. Investments in supply chain, we just announced some of the transition of production over to the Peterborough facility in the U.K. There are start-up costs that have hit us in the first quarter. There will be more of that in the second quarter, really hitting the Flavor Solutions segment. So we do see some of those negative impacts in Q2, but really feel confident about the second 6 with some of the actions that we've identified.

Andrew Lazar

Analyst

And then just quickly, you've talked about the capacity coming online. And I think you mentioned you shipped essentially or closer to consumption this quarter, so sort of making progress there, and we've seen that in the market share improvements. But it doesn’t sound like you’ve yet had the ability to sort of really re-build retail or inventories. And I assume there's still some opportunity for that as you go forward through this year? And perhaps you could just update us on that.

Lawrence Kurzius

Management

I think that this is a work in progress. Supply chain continues to get better. It's not perfect as our -- some of our customers will remind us. But the disruptions that we are seeing are much more discrete and specific rather than the third quarter of last year, it seemed like everything was a problem. So supply chain has gotten better, our ability to meet that demand has really gotten better. And although make that remark about certain customers a minute ago. The fact is our customers tell us that, generally, we are performing better than our competitive set, and this is allowing us to win new business. So we really feel pretty good about how that has improved. And I think you'll continue to see us build share performance consecutively as we have been for the last several quarters with our ability to supply, and that additional capacity coming on has really made the difference.

Operator

Operator

The next question is coming from the line of Alexia Howard with Bernstein.

Alexia Howard

Analyst

Can I ask, first of all, about the private label dynamics because we're looking at the level of price inflation really across the grocery store. And under normal circumstances, you would expect to trade down to private label. But I know that you mentioned that your private label sales are actually down year-on-year. I'm just wondering what's driving that. Is it supply chain related? Is it retail-driven? Or is it simply that consumers are feeling -- still feeling reasonably flash and able to afford the branded products? And then I have a follow-up.

Lawrence Kurzius

Management

Sure. I think 2 things. First of all, we have not yet seen significant movement in private label as a trend in either direction. Some of the recent market data shows some increase and -- but it's really slight in our categories. There's a dynamic you have to watch out for private label, the costs are going up for everybody. And it's driven by raw material, packaging and transportation, and the same penny cost increase that's impacting brands is also impacting private label. And so when you put that same amount of cost increase through to private label, percent of increase is bigger, and it creates an uptick of private label growing faster on a dollar basis. It's again, it's that cost pass-through. So I want to make that clear. The second point that I want to make, though, is that we are believers that there's a role for both our brand and private label, especially in the urban spice category and we provide both to our customers and the best competitive environment for us as a company. It's when both our brand and private label are obtaining share, putting pressure on everybody else.

Alexia Howard

Analyst

Great. and as a follow-up, obviously, Russia and Ukraine is a very difficult situation right now. Can you share what percentage of sales that is to you? I'm pretty sure it's fairly low. But what do you see as the risks around the world if the situation persists? And I'm really talking about when we've gone through previous commodity cycles, we've seen problems because of the inaffordability of basic food stuff like bread in Egypt and so on. Would your supply chain -- I mean, given what you've seen in the past when we see these grain cycles, are there particular ingredients that you think might be more challenged? I'm just trying to get at the risks there.

Mike Smith

Management

Alexia. It's Mike. I'll start the answer. We have said in our 8-K, sales for Russia and Ukraine are less than 1% of our total sales. So that's -- and so that's grossed in. It will have an impact in the second quarter, obviously, because that's when the crisis has unfolded. As far as your question about broader impacts, primarily inflation, I think you've seen in the last couple of weeks, and part of the reasons we've taken our inflation expectations up and discussed pricing is because of some of those impacts. From a commodity perspective, I mean, our market basket is a lot different than a lot of other food companies. I mean there are products that could be impacted, we source mustard from that part of the world, but we have secondary sourcing capabilities there, which we've moved to. So I think our global supply chain, 1 of the strengths we have is it's deep and has a long history and there's alternative markets for a lot of our materials. And no one raw material makes up more than 5% of our total cost of goods sold. So I think that diversity really helps us.

Lawrence Kurzius

Management

And I would say we're less exposed to the green complex. Most of our peer companies would be. I think our concern and part of what we're considering in our inflationary outlook is cost of energy, which now looks like it's going to remain higher than perhaps it might have otherwise. That flows through the packaging to the plastic resins and things like that.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of with JPMorgan.

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst · JPMorgan.

In light of some of the incremental cost pressures you're facing, the year-on-year decline we saw in the first quarter gross margin, is this a reasonable level of decline to think about in the second quarter as well? Or was -- where should we think about the first quarter as the low point in terms of progression?

Mike Smith

Management

I'd say between the first half and the second half, you're going to have that big change due to the pricing dynamic I mentioned before and some of the one-timers in the first 6. The things we've laid out as far as cost increasing versus our original expectations in the second quarter. I think it's probably a pretty good estimate that in that range of gross margin, what we did in the first quarter is probably close. We do have the additional Peterburg supply chain investment costs I talked about for dual running costs and things like that. So I don't think you're far out of the ballpark there.

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst · JPMorgan.

Great. That's helpful. And then I just wanted to switch to -- ask about pricing in consumer EMEA. The pricing remained like fairly muted in the quarter. So can you walk us through what to expect from pricing in this region as the year progresses? And what some of the challenges are, if any, to taking pricing here?

Lawrence Kurzius

Management

Well, I'd say that we've said we're going to take pricing as appropriate. And so different regions are going to have different levels of inflationary impact and different levels of pricing and different timings in which those pricing actions might take effect. And so I don't -- and then even within regions, there are going to be differences from country to country, especially in the region.

Mike Smith

Management

Even within the segments.

Lawrence Kurzius

Management

Even within our segments, certainly, I can say though that broadly, we have -- our current pricing actions -- our pricing actions that we've spoken about are very much on track. We have pricing going into effect in second quarter in several markets. I know your question is about the EMEA, but they'll be more specific about our U.S. consumer business because increases are going into effect this week for the next round. In our Flavor Solutions segment, broadly, the branded foodservice part of the portfolio moves with consumer pricing. And the rest of the flavor solutions business, pricing is based on contractual windows and the timing is going to vary tremendously based on the windows of reassessing the pricing. And I'd say that in EMEA and APZ, the pricing actions are on track and are going to be phased in through the first half of the year. So it is -- pricing is always an ongoing discussion, and we would not get too specific as of now for both the customer and for competitive reasons.

Mike Smith

Management

Yes, I think you'll see the same trends across the regions that pricing will build during the year.

Operator

Operator

Next question is coming from the line of Robert Moskow with Credit Suisse.

Robert Moskow

Analyst

Thanks for the question. I guess it's in 2 parts. I wanted to confirm what I heard about the level of pricing you think, Mike, that will show up in your P&L by the end of the year. I thought I heard you say low teens, but I could have gotten that wrong. Is it scaling up that much? And then the second part is, I think, Laurence, you said that you're operating from a higher baseline because you brought in a lot of consumers to the franchise and the category has expanded perhaps structurally. But the category is declining in the U.S. modestly. It's declining a lot in Europe from what I can tell. Is there a risk here that as consumers regain more mobility and they're gaining it very quickly right now that the consumer category might not be at the right baseline that there might be a lower baseline out there than what you would expect

Lawrence Kurzius

Management

Rob, but I think we'll start with the pricing --

Mike Smith

Management

Let me answer that. When I say then, just to be clear, we have given guidance that pricing for the full year was going to be mid to high single digit based on -- with the new based on the -- we're moving to the high end of that based on the price -- based on the recent cost increases. Obviously, single digit. I'm getting confused. Mid to high single digit. We moved to high based on some of this recent cost inflation, I talked about primarily impacting the second quarter. When I said about first half, second half, in the second half, if you look at that in particular, back to Andrew's question, we are going to see low single -- low double-digit price increases, which are cumulatively coming through for the third and fourth quarter. So it builds during the year, to my point before, not for the full year but for the second 6.

Robert Moskow

Analyst

Yes. Yes. Okay. That's a big price increase in the back half of the year.

Mike Smith

Management

Well, I think you're lapping and you're lapping last year in the Americas, particularly pricing in the fourth quarter last year. So you do get that cumulative impact of several price increases, 3 of them actually.

Robert Moskow

Analyst

Okay. And then the risk to the baseline?

Lawrence Kurzius

Management

Well, of course, there was elevated demand because consumers were forced to stay at home to cook. And we never expected all of it to remain. But we do believe that consumers have moved to a higher level of consumption and at a higher level of cooking at home structurally. All of our research points in that direction. Just the logic of people still cooking at home.And it starts from working from home in part. Lunch is going to be a meal occasion. That is consumed more at home. The breakfast because of work from home, people are actually cooking breakfast instead of using more ready-to-eat solutions. And there's kind of both the qualitative and the quantitative work at that point to say consumption at home is going to continue to remain elevated. I mean 88% of consumers say they're going to cook as much at home or as much or more at home than they did during the pandemic. To the extent there's economic pressure on us from a recession, that also reinforces the whole cook at home. And we know, in particular, our categories and our brands performed well during processionary periods during both of the last 2 recessions. Our brand growth was right in line with our long-term guidance. We are seeing a difference in our consumer business in the U.S. versus Europe. But the biggest factor there is actually that Europe has -- in our European business, we have a significant component that is making, particularly with our Botanical brand in France. And so we've seen baking return to more of a baseline level. But we do believe that there's been a step up in our other categories.

Mike Smith

Management

Yes. I mean you just look at total McCormick consumer in the last 2 years, we were lapping a really tough quarter last year in Q1. We're up 30% in 2 years constant currency consumer sales. That's pretty amazing. That's that step-up that Lawrence was talking about.

Robert Moskow

Analyst

And maybe 1 last follow-up, if I could. If pricing is up low double digit, let's say, it's like 12% in the back half of the year. It's probably not unheard of to expect a volume decline of like negative 5%, negative 6%. Is that close to how you're thinking about elasticity? Number one. And if volume is that -- down that much, does that have any implications for your fixed cost leverage? Or what does it do to your -- the rest of your P&L, if anything?

Lawrence Kurzius

Management

Well, I'm not going to get too specific on our exact elasticity modeling. But we do model elasticity. These price increases are really outside the range of those models. And the environment is different from the environment in which those models were built. So I think that all of us are in a little bit uncharted territory right now. But we've assumed a level of elasticity is so far so good in the sense that elasticity that we're actually seeing is actually at the low end of what we've been modeling. So that gives us some encouragement. And again, elasticity is probably based on substitutability and everything is going up. And so kind of -- even though our prices are going up, the consumers’ perspective about the kind of relative frame of preference, it's in a context for all the substitutes and everything that products are used on it's going up as well. And again, as we tried to say in our prepared remarks and which we've seen and heard from consumers in the past is that our products are a very small part of the cost of their meal. And in many cases, are part of them solving their whole grocery basket inflation problem. They've got a NIM going up 40% the increase on spices sales by comparison and using even more spice to substitute a lower cost got to meet a real behavior that we see in consumer.

Mike Smith

Management

Let's read about the fixed cost in our supply chain. I mean we manage ups and downs all the time. So if there happens to be some volume decrease there's been a large investment in capacity in the last couple of years and we've gotten out a lot of these co-pack costs from COVID. So we would absorb that.

Lawrence Kurzius

Management

Yes. And I would say we're still -- in order to meet the high level of demand the volumes came down a little bit, it actually won't even benefit us.

Operator

Operator

Next question is coming from the line of Adam Samuelson with Goldman Sachs.

Adam Samuelson

Analyst

So I was hoping to dig in on the Flavor Solutions growth a little bit and really trying to think about the performance in some of the different buckets and very different comp layout in that part of the business than in the consumer segment, where you were still lapping some easy foodservice and quick service comps a year ago. Those get notably tougher, your packaged food customers, especially in North America might kind of -- or probably wrestle with a lot of the same demand elasticity questions that Rob and others have been asking about already. So I'm just trying to think about how we should think about the volume growth, whether it's by region or by the different parts of that business over the balance of the year?

Lawrence Kurzius

Management

I'll start off to say that Flavor Solutions growth for the total company was really strong. And for Americas and EMEA, it was likewise really, really strong. And even Asia Pacific and where the growth was a little bit lighter, I'm not going to complain about the amount of growth that we recognize over there as well. The food away from home components, slightly trailed food at home overall, but those results were really different by region. That whole – our whole flavor and seasoning business has really been robust in the Americas, and that drove a lot of the growth. And quick service restaurant recovery has continued to be strong. And branded food service is now reopening. So we're seeing solid growth there. I mean it's hard to say what's not, -- I mean, I couldn't tell you what we're not growing.

Mike Smith

Management

Yes, not only the secular trends, but we're winning business. I mean it's the thing that we talked about -- 1 acquisition that has unlocked across the flavor business and some of these high-growing categories, we talked about it in CAGNY. So I think you're seeing a lot of good trends across Flavor Solutions.

Adam Samuelson

Analyst

Right. I know I get that. I'm just trying to think about this on the go forward, the comp layout on volumes is just very different from an activity level than our consumer business. And I'm trying to think about, especially if there's risks of maybe a bit lower economic growth, especially in EMEA, you got COVID lockdowns in Asia or in China specifically, just how do we -- how you're thinking about that business as we go into the balance of the year?

Mike Smith

Management

Well, I think -- Gosh. I mean all companies are struggling like this. But I think in times when other of our, say, package food companies are trying to come up with innovation, maybe take cost out where our products are such a small percentage of the total product they sell to the consumer, it's actually an opportunity for us to work with them. So I'm less concerned about some of the elasticity they're seeing, things like that. You've said we're small component, just like on the consumer side of that meal, whether you're a branded foodservice or whether you're buying a snack seasoning.

Lawrence Kurzius

Management

And on China specifically, we're watching this. But I'd say it's within the -- there are always puts and takes in pressures within the business. I'd say that what we're seeing at least so far is within that range.

Adam Samuelson

Analyst

Okay. And then -- and if I quickly follow up on the commodity cost inflation point, and I appreciate your basket looks very different than a lot of other food companies. You guys also are much more diverse just in terms of despite the seasoning herbs that are going to have a lot of emerging market kind of growers, very smallholder farmers. Can you talk about the contracting of that? How much when you actually will agree to price with those growers through the year? Just they're going to be facing some pretty dramatic input cost inflation. I'm wondering how that will impact the price that you're paying for that basket of commodities, is that really more of a fiscal '23 event as we think about their costs throwing up to your return --

Mike Smith

Management

I think most -- the impact we've talked about, especially recently is more on the transportation and the packaging side. There's exposures to the resins and oil costs and things like that. Input commodities, we have a long history of relationships with partners and joint ventures that secure commodities over time. And you can look at our balance sheet, we have more raw materials now than we did last year. So that's part of the way we protect our future supply.

Lawrence Kurzius

Management

Right. And I think that we couldn’t get into too much detail here. I would say that our global sourcing and our foods on the ground and our long relationships with producers in these markets and kind of the strategic partnership that in some cases are multigenerational have really advantaged us in this area and this has actually been an area that -- where I think that we've demonstrated tremendous competitive advantage and is giving us some buffer and I think that others are probably experiencing even greater cost inflation pressure for some of these same components. It is an area where scale really matters.

Operator

Operator

Our next question is from the line of Steve Powers with Deutsche Bank.

Steve Powers

Analyst

Perhaps, building on your comments in response to Alexia's question on private label and Rob's questions as well, it seems there's an increased focus in your comments this morning on entry price points for affordability maybe that just limited the private label, but generally and value offerings such as the larger pack sizes. I guess I just want to validate that I'm picking up on a fair evolution in tone since the start of the year, number one. And then number two, maybe some comments around how that's altered your outlook for volume versus product mix alongside the increases in pricing. Clearly, you haven't altered the top line outlook and you've mentioned the incremental price anticipated so we can solve for the difference. But within that, I'm curious how you're thinking about volume versus mix trade-offs. It sounds like you expect the response to skew more towards mix versus a unit volume decline. But I just want to validate that and would love some incremental thoughts.

Mike Smith

Management

I mean I'll start with this. There's a lot to unpack. I mean the nice thing in our consumer business is, whether you're buying recipe mixes or bottles of spices or Frank's RedHot Sauce, the margins are very solid. So we have a real -- we have a broad -- for all portfolio of products of Flavor things, but really high-margin business across the board. So I don't think -- I don't think there's going to be an impact there from a shift. I mean you may see in previous recessions, like we've talked about, I don't think we're shifting the message. I think we've talked about very consistently in the recessionary periods such as 2001, 2009, our products do really well. We show volume growth and pricing growth that we need to. So there may be a shift in products from gourmet to recipe mixes because people are going down the value chain, but the margins are there and the use of the 1 pack of dry seasoning mix versus a bottle actually helps us in some way. So I don't -- I think the fear that you're raising isn't fair, right?

Lawrence Kurzius

Management

Yes, we're not trying to signal anything when we talk about it. We offer the whole range of price points from all the way from super premium and to mid-tier to entry price point. And at a time when, when we -- and everybody are taking pricing actions, we also want to make sure that our products are accessible to lower-income consumers and value-conscious consumer. And that's how we're really trying to provide reassurance in that area. It's not an anticipation of some change or it's not a shift in strategy or focus for us.

Operator

Operator

Next question is from the line of Chris Growe with Stifel.

Chris Growe

Analyst

Just had a couple of quick questions. I think these have become pretty much follow-ups at this point, but just to be clear on a couple of points. But given the higher inflationary outlook, you mentioned you do have more pricing coming online in the second quarter. Is that new pricing? Or is that pricing that was expected to pick up from some of your actions, I think you put in place in the fourth quarter.

Lawrence Kurzius

Management

I can tell you, we -- this is pricing that has been planned. We -- these price increases in order for them to be effective now were presented before our last call, I can assure you, so these are not new. And the additional pricing that we're planning later in the year was planned, the magnitude of that pricing was still flexible and we're locking that in now.

Chris Growe

Analyst

Okay. Got it. And then I just want to be clear on the cost inflation, that accelerates in the second quarter. Even though pricing’s accelerating, it sounds like there’s going to be some extra cost, so there’d be ERP and the new -- and the facility costs in peers forward. That would be factors that would keep the gross margin from including much sequentially, but the second half should show that improvement as more of the pricing comes through. Is that the right way to think about that between pricing inflation?

Mike Smith

Management

For second half as I said, for the reasons you mentioned, but also the fact that, that cost acceleration for the fuel costs and things like that into the second quarter in addition to some of the things we made out before with some of the supply chain. So yes, you're right.

Chris Growe

Analyst

Okay. And I just got a question -- go ahead, sorry.

Lawrence Kurzius

Management

I would just say I think you got it.

Chris Growe

Analyst

Okay. Great. One quick question on Flavor Solutions. You talked about some strategic investment spending. Is that related to future demand? Or is that related to Peterborough, for example, are things you're moving around? I'm just curious what that referred to.

Mike Smith

Management

That's specifically reflecting -- the majority of it is related to the Peterborough start-up costs and redundant running costs there.

Chris Growe

Analyst

Okay.

Mike Smith

Management

Which is a great new facility of net carbon 0 and manufacturing and then running, it's going to be fantastic long term, but there is a start-up cost, yes.

Operator

Operator

Our final question is from the line of Peter Galbo with Bank of America.

Peter Galbo

Analyst

Just wanted to circle back, I think, to some comments you made maybe a few years ago around China and make sure some of the numbers we're working with are still okay. But I believe, in the past, you've disclosed that China is sub-10% of the business. And I think about half of that business is away from home just as we're thinking about 2Q impact of potential walk-downs.

Lawrence Kurzius

Management

You're right about less than 10%. It's -- I think that's close enough.

Mike Smith

Management

Taken out – I mean away from at homes, but --

Lawrence Kurzius

Management

Yes, that's how -- I mean --

Mike Smith

Management

Yes. I mean you have to remember, within our consumer business, we have -- there's products we sell that are used for both -- in foodservice that we classify them as part of the consumer, which is a little different than other parts of the world just because of the fact they could be used in both channels.

Peter Galbo

Analyst

Right. Okay. Okay. And then maybe just as a follow-up, Mike. And I know we've kind of gone over this on the cost inflation side and pricing. But I just -- on reconciling the gross margin guidance specifically for the year, given kind of the hole you're working out of 1Q, some of the lasting impacts in 2Q and not margining up when you take price in the back half of the year, just -- how do you kind of still get to a flat to down 50 basis points gross margin number as you're looking at it internally? Just can you help us there?

Mike Smith

Management

I think you have to remember, first quarter is historically the smallest quarter. So -- and the back half of the year is traditionally our biggest quarter. So there you get a math thing going that helps us as we have increased volumes and pricing and things like that. We've talked about that help fill some of that gap you're talking about. I mean we're always looking -- we talked at CAGNY, we talked on the earnings call about the things that are going to help us, whether it's CCI. People forget about the reduction in COVID costs. We spent $60 million in COVID costs last year, of which some of that still remains in the underlying business, but that was -- that's a big tailwind for us to help offset some of the segment mix we've talked about, the pricing compression that we've talked about, which is the main driver. So there's other things we're doing, whether it's rev management, to shift to higher-margin products, both on the Flavor Solutions side and Consumer that we're intentionally doing. So there's a lot of things -- there's a lot of puts and takes within that 0 to 50% -- or 50 basis points for the full year. But we're 1 quarter in, and it's just too early to move. And things will move in that range, too, as things change with Ukraine and Russia, commodity costs, pricing. So we're comfortable with where we are right now.

Operator

Operator

I'll now turn the floor right to Lawrence Kurzius for closing remarks.

Lawrence Kurzius

Management

Great. Thank you. McCormick is differentiated by the breadth and reach of our balanced portfolio, which has positioned us for sustainable growth. We're very proud of our solid first quarter operating performance, our disciplined and our focus on the right opportunities and investing in our business. We're continuing to accelerate our momentum and drive further growth as we successfully execute on our long-term strategies, actively respond to changing consumer behavior and capitalize on opportunities from our relative strength. We are well positioned for continued success and remain committed to driving long-term value for our shareholders.

Kasey Jenkins

Management

Thank you, Lawrence. Thank you to everybody for joining today's call. If you have any further questions about today's information, please feel free to contact me. This concludes this morning's call. Have a nice day.