Pat McCann
Analyst · Bank of America. Please go ahead
Thanks, Swamy. And good morning, everyone. As Swamy indicated, we delivered solid first quarter earnings ahead of our expectations, excluding the Fisker impairments. Recall that we indicated on our February call that we expected our 2024 earnings to be lowest in the first quarter of the year. Now, comparing the first quarter of 2024 to the first quarter of 2023. Consolidated sales were $11 billion, up 3% compared to a 2% increase in global light vehicle production. Adjusted EBIT was $469 million. And adjusted EBIT margin was up 10 basis points to 4.3%. Adjusted EPS came in at $1.08, down 6% year-over-year primarily due to interest costs, but ahead of our expectations. And free cash flow used in the quarter was $270 million, compared to $279 million in the first quarter of 2023. During the quarter, we paid dividends of $134 million. We also raised $400 million to repay debt coming due later this quarter. More importantly, with respect to our outlook, as Swamy noted, we are maintaining our adjusted EBIT margin range and lowering our capital spending range. Let me take you through some of the details. North American light vehicle production was up 2%; and China was up 11%; while production in Europe declined 2%, netting to a 2% increase in global production. Breaking down North American production further, while overall production increased 2%, production by our Detroit-based customers declined 3% in the quarter. Our consolidated sales were $11 billion, up 3% over the first quarter of 2023. On an organic basis, our sales increased 1% year-over-year for a minus 1% growth over market in the first quarter, but plus 2% growth over market, excluding Complete Vehicles. Once again, negative production mix in North America unfavorably impacted our year-over-year sales growth in the quarter. Our sales increase was primarily due to the launch of new programs, higher overall global vehicle production the acquisition of Veoneer Active Safety and increases to recover certain higher input costs. These were largely offset by lower complete vehicle assembly volumes, the impact of foreign currency translation and normal course customer price givebacks. Adjusted EBIT was $469 million, and adjusted EBIT margin was 4.3% compared to 4.2% in Q1 2023. The higher EBIT percent in the quarter reflects approximately 40 basis points of operational items, the most significant of which relates to our operational activities, including improved results at underperforming operations, 30 basis points of nonrecurring items, the most significant of which are lower warranty and a gain on the sale of a noncore equity method investment. These items were partially offset by higher net input costs, in particular for labor, which approximated 20 basis points and volume and other items, which collectively impacted us by about 40 basis points. These include acquisitions, which came in at lower margins than the corporate average; lower earnings on lower assembly sales, including as a result of the end of production of the BMW 5 Series, net of higher earnings on higher component and system sales as well as transactional foreign exchange gains. Interest expense increased, reflecting net debt raised last year as well as higher market rates on the new debt. Our adjusted effective income tax rate came in at 21.5%, essentially in line with Q1 of last year. Net income was $311 million compared to $329 million in Q1 2023, mainly reflecting higher adjusted EBIT, offset by higher interest expense and minority interest. Adjusted diluted EPS was $1.08 compared to $1.15 last year. Turning to a review of our cash flows and investment activities. In the first quarter of 2024, we generated $591 million in cash from operations before changes in working capital and invested $330 million in working capital. Investment activities in the quarter included $493 million for fixed assets and a $125 million increase in investments, other assets and intangibles. Overall, we used free cash flow of $270 million in Q1. We continue to return capital to shareholders. We paid $134 million in dividends in Q1. Our balance sheet continues to be strong with investment-grade ratings from the major credit rating agencies. At the end of Q1, we had over $4 billion in liquidity, including about $1.5 billion in cash. Currently, our adjusted debt-to-adjusted EBITDA ratio is up 1.83, excluding excess cash held to pay down debt coming due this quarter. We anticipate a reduction of our leverage ratio, and we are on track to be within our targeted range during 2025. Next, I will cover our updated outlook, which incorporates slightly higher-than-expected vehicle production in China, while our assumptions for production in North America and Europe are unchanged from our previous outlook. We also assume exchange rates and our outlook will approximate recent rates. We now expect a lower euro and Canadian dollar for 2024 and a slightly higher RMB all relative to our previous outlook. And as Swamy mentioned earlier, we are assuming no more production of the Fisker Ocean. We are reducing our expected sales range, despite this, we are maintaining our EBIT margin outlook, reflecting our operational excellence efforts to contain cost and obtain commercial recoveries. We have increased our expected tax rate for 2024 from 21% to 22%, largely reflecting a change in the mix of earnings towards higher tax jurisdictions. As a result of reducing the range of our sales and the higher expected tax rate, we are reducing our range for net income. We now expect capital spending to be in the $2.4 billion to $2.5 billion range compared to approximately $2.5 billion in our February outlook. This mainly reflects revised program spending. And our interest expense, equity income and free cash flow expectations are all unchanged from our last outlook. Let me walk you through the change in our sales outlook from February to now. As we mentioned earlier, we have assumed no future production for the Fisker Ocean. Consistent with our previous communications of the 2024 impact, this reduced sales by about $400 million. We have received updated information on the amount of directed content on the new Mercedes G-Class assembly programs, which has reduced sales by about $400 million. Recall from our February outlook that we expected no dollar impact related to the sales change. Our updated FX rates resulted in about $200 million of lower sales and the remainder, including reduced active safety sales, partially offset by other amounts netted to about $200 million in lower sales in our outlook. In summary, we had solid financial performance in the first quarter, ahead of what we had expected, excluding the Fisker impairments. We are on track with our operational excellence activities and are taking further actions to mitigate impacts from lower expected sales. As a result, we are maintaining our adjusted EBIT margin outlook for 2024. We’re also lowering our capital spending expectations for the year, and we are assessing the impacts of OEM electrification plans on our business in order to optimize investments and capacity plans. All in all, a solid start to 2024. Thanks for your attention, and we are more than happy to answer your questions. Operator?