Vince Galifi
Analyst · John Murphy, Bank of America Merrill Lynch
Thanks, Don, and good morning, everyone. Overall, we were fairly pleased with our Q4 results as our consolidated sales and adjusted EBIT were ahead of our internal expectations. However, as Don mentioned, the GM strike continued into the fourth quarter and this contributed to lower sales and earnings compared to the fourth quarter of 2018, although the impact of the strike were largely in line with our expectations coming into the quarter. Some of the key details of the quarter included our consolidated organic sales declining 3%. Global light vehicle production was essentially level. But weighted for Magna sales by region, vehicle production declined 5%. This was due to production in North America and Europe, our 2 most significant markets, declining 7% and 3%, respectively. The large decline in North America was in part due to the GM strike. We returned $365 million to shareholders in the quarter through dividends and share buybacks. We generated $1.1 billion in free cash flow, well ahead of our expectations coming into the quarter, and our Board approved a 10% increase in our quarterly dividend. I'm going to cover each of these in some more detail. Our consolidated sales were $9.4 billion, a decline of 7% from the fourth quarter of 2018. Our sales in the fourth quarter of 2019 were negatively impacted by, among other factors, lower production in North America and Europe, the divestiture of our FP&C business the first quarter of 2019 and currency translation. Excluding the divestiture of FP&C, net of the acquisitions of OLSA and Viza, we -- which reduced sales by $276 million, and currency translation, which was $138 million headwind, our organic sales declined 3% year-over-year. As expected, our adjusted EBIT margin was lower compared to last year. We reported 6.3% in the fourth quarter of 2019, down from 7.2% in Q4 of 2018. 80 basis points of this decline related to lower margins in our Power & Vision segment, 50 basis points to Body Exteriors & Structures and 30 basis points was due to lower Seating margins. These were offset by 40 basis points of improvement driven by Complete Vehicles and 30 basis points of improvement due to higher profit in Corporate. And of course, the GM strike significantly contributed to the lower margins for BES, Power & Vision and Seating. I will get into the specifics of these margin changes in the segment review. Adjusted EBIT decreased to $590 million from $730 million, largely reflecting the GM strike, higher engineering costs in our ADAS business, higher warranty costs, net foreign exchange losses, lower scrap metal recoveries and higher commodity costs. These were partially offset by higher net favorable commercial items, lower incentive compensation and increased earnings in Complete Vehicles. Equity income was largely in line with last year and up $21 million from the prior quarter, mainly due to lower depreciation and amortization related to fair value increments as a result of the Q3 2019 impairment of our investments in Getrag's joint ventures. Excluding equity income, our EBIT margin declined to 5.7% in Q4 of '19 versus 6.6% in Q4 of 2018. Our effective income tax rate was 23.3%, relatively in line with our full year 2019 tax rate. Net income attributable to Magna was $433 million compared to $542 million in Q4 of 2018, reflecting the lower EBIT and higher tax rates, partially offset by lower interest expense and minority interest. Diluted EPS was $1.41 for the quarter compared to $1.63 last year. The decline of $0.22 reflects the lower net income partially offset by 8% fewer shares outstanding. Now for our segments. Body Exteriors & Structures sales were $3.9 billion in the fourth quarter down 6% from $4.2 billion a year ago. This reflects declines in vehicle production in North America, including from the GM strike, and in Europe, the end of production of certain programs, including the Chevy Cruze; a negative impact from foreign currency translation of $33 million; and net customer price concessions. These were partially offset by new program launches. The segment's organic sales change was below global vehicle production but in line on a weighted basis. Body Exteriors & Structures EBIT decreased by $67 million in Q4 of '19 compared to the fourth quarter of 2018. Margins fell by 110 basis points to 7.4% in the fourth quarter. This was primarily due to the impact of the GM strike, lower scrap metal recoveries, higher net warranty and launch costs and lower foreign exchange gains. These were partially offset by inefficiencies during 2018 at a plant we closed in 2019 and productivity and efficiency improvements, including certain underperforming facilities. Power & Vision segment sales decreased $262 million or 9% to $2.7 billion from $3 billion last year. This primarily reflects net divestitures of $319 million,; declines in vehicle production in North America, including from the GM strike; and in Europe, a $48 million negative impact from foreign currency translation and net customer price concessions. Organic sales increased 4% year-over-year outpacing global vehicle production and, in particular, outpacing weighted global production, which was down 5%. This was driven by new program launches and further increased DCT sales for our European transmissions business. Power & Vision EBIT was lower by $91 million and EBIT margin decreased to 6% compared to 8.5% in the fourth quarter of 2018. The lower EBIT percentage primarily reflects higher engineering costs in our ADAS business, substantially associated with 3 programs that will be utilizing new technologies, the GM strike and higher net warranty costs. These were partly offset by the divestiture of the FP&C, which ran at margins below segment average, and higher net favorable commercial items. Excluding equity income, EBIT margin fell to 4% from 6.6% in 2018. Seating sales were $1.4 billion, down 1% from the fourth quarter of last year as a result of the declines in production in North America, including the GM strike; and in Europe, end of production of certain programs, including the Chevy Cruise; a $15 million negative swing in foreign currency translation; and net customer price concessions. These were partially offset by the launch of new programs and the acquisition of Viza. Seating organic sales declined 3%, outpacing weighted vehicle production. Seating EBIT decreased by $31 million to $79 million quarter, while EBIT margins dropped by 220 basis points to 5.5% from 7.7% in 2018. This reduction reflects foreign exchange losses in Q4 of '19 compared to gains in 2018, launch and operational efficiencies at a new facility, higher commodity launch and net warranty costs and the GM strike. These were partially offset by increased equity income. Lastly, Complete Vehicle sales were down $226 million or 13% from last year to $1.5 billion. This was primarily due to lower volumes on the Jaguar I-PACE and BMW 5 Series and a $46 million negative impact from foreign currency translation, partially offset by the launch of Toyota Supra and BMW Z4 as well as improved mix. Organic sales declined by 11% from last year as assembly volumes declined 7% to approximately 34,000 units. Complete Vehicle's EBIT increased by $20 million compared to the fourth quarter of 2018. EBIT margin increased 160 basis points to 3% in Q4 of '19, primarily due to earnings on higher sales of certain vehicles and reduced launch costs and efficiencies, partially offset by restructuring and downsizing costs incurred in 2019. Let me look at our cash flows and investment activities now. During the fourth quarter of '19, we generated $1.7 billion in cash from operations compared to $1.6 billion in the fourth quarter of 2018. Investment activities amounted to $635 million, including $513 million in fixed assets and $122 million increase in investments, other assets and intangibles. Free cash flow was $1.1 billion in the fourth quarter, better than expected, mainly due to higher-than-anticipated Q4 earnings, lower fixed asset spending and working capital being better than anticipated by about $200 million. Keep in mind that we were expecting the $200 million in Q1 2020, so our 2020 free cash flow outlook will be lower by this amount. For 2019, we generated a record free cash flow of $2.3 billion compared to the $1.9 billion to $2.1 billion range that we anticipated at the start of the fourth quarter. We returned $365 million to shareholders in the quarter through the repurchase of $254 million of our stock, representing 4.7 million shares, as well as a payment of $111 million in dividends. For the year, we repurchased 25.8 million shares for $1.3 billion and paid dividends of $449 million. Our adjusted debt to adjusted EBITDA is 1.21, providing continued balance sheet flexibility. We announced today that our Board approved a 10% increase in our quarterly dividend to $0.40. This represents the 11th consecutive year of dividend increases, reflecting our continued earnings and balance sheet strength as well as management and the Board's confidence in our future. Turning to our outlook. We've only made one change to what we provided last month on our outlook call. As I noted earlier, due to timing of some working capital, we now expect between $1.4 billion and $1.6 billion of free cash flow in 2020 compared to the $1.6 billion to $1.8 billion that we communicated in January. We continue to believe we will generate approximately $5.5 billion in free cash flow in the 2020 to 2022 time frame. We indicated in our press release that we have not included any adjustment to our outlook related to COVID-19 as it is difficult to assess its impact. However, our outlook reflects average quarterly consolidated sales in China in the $400 million to $500 million range, and approximately 20% of our equity income outlook range is expected from China. To the extent the production is disrupted, our results will be impacted. However, it is difficult to quantify at this time. Thanks for your attention this morning. Pleased to answer your questions.