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Ramaco Resources, Inc. (METCB)

Q2 2018 Earnings Call· Sun, Aug 12, 2018

$10.06

-1.85%

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Ramaco Resources, Inc. Second Quarter 2018 Earnings Conference Call [Operator Instructions] I would now like to turn the conference over to Michael Windisch, Chief Accounting Officer of Ramaco Resources. Sir, you may begin.

Michael Windisch

Analyst

Thank you, Ashley. On behalf of Ramaco Resources, I would like to welcome all of you to our second quarter earnings conference call. With me this morning is Randy Atkins, our Executive Chairman and CFO; Mike Bauersachs, our President and CEO; and Chris Blanchard, our Chief Operating Officer. Before we start, I would like to share our normal cautionary statement regarding forward-looking statements. Certain statements discussed on today's call constitute forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These forward-looking statements represent Ramaco's expectations or beliefs concerning future events, and it is possible that the results discussed will not be achieved. These forward-looking statements are subject to risks, uncertainties and other factors, many of which are outside of Ramaco's control, which could cause actual results to differ materially from the results discussed in these forward-looking statements. Any forward-looking statement speaks only as of the date on which it is made and except as required by law, Ramaco does not undertake any obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statement, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise. New factors emerge from time-to-time and it is not possible for Ramaco to predict all such factors. When considering these forward-looking statements, you should keep in mind the risk factors and other cautionary statements found in the company's filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission, including its Annual Report on Form 10-K and our Form 10-Q. The risk factors and other factors noted in the company's SEC filings could cause its actual results to differ materially from those contained in any forward-looking statements. With that said, I'd like to introduce Randy Atkins, our Chairman and CFO.

Randall Atkins

Analyst

Thanks, Mike. First I want to thank everyone for joining us today for our call to discuss the second quarter results. To begin, last quarter we reported our first profit. This quarter we increased that profit by over 90%, indeed virtually every important financial and operating metric improved. And frankly first, I want to thank our miners and operation personnel for an impressive job this quarter. We obviously hope to continue this momentum into the balance of the year and we are optimistic that we are on track to have a very strong year. So let's start with some of the financial milestones that we released yesterday. Revenue for the quarter rose to $65 million. Our net income basically doubled from roughly $5 million to $10 million, and that translated to a jump in net earnings per share from $0.13 to $0.25 per share. Quarterly adjusted EBITDA also grew substantially from about $9 million to almost $15 million, which gives us roughly $24 million of total EBITDA for the year. There is still however, very much room for improvement. Looking back, we probably could have done better with our rail lines, frankly and especially with Norfolk Southern, which is not - which has continue do not deliver reliable and consistent rail performance we expect. This non-performance has negatively impacted our revenues, especially at our purchased coal operations at Knox Creek. This quarter we also encountered some unexpected geological issues, this time getting a sandstone fault at our Berwind mine, which I am going to let Mike Bauersachs discuss more in depth in a moment. Operationally however, each of our mines at Elk Creek are now performing extremely well. We have now brought our costs back in line with our original guidance for the year. As you recall we had guided…

Michael Bauersachs

Analyst

Thank you Randy. At the offset, I would like to thank all of our employees for their dedication and the pride they take in their everyday tasks. Without their efforts, we would not have had such a successful second quarter. We believe our second quarter results eliminate any questions about the quality and low-cost profile of our active operations. We have also confirmed that our infrastructure deployment at Elk Creek is fully operational and meeting expectations. The presentation includes an updated slide illustrating the continued advancement of our raw coal feed into the Elk Creek plant. While our feed rate dropped slightly in June, it's still exceeded our normalized rates. Production from our Elk Creek surface mine and associated highwall miner operation, where we previously reported production problems stabilized in the second quarter, and has become a predictable contributor to our sales volumes. The surface mine also exceeded our expectations relative to the percentage of coal that is sold as meteorological. While it will produce lower volumes than we originally projected we are increasingly confident that the surface mine will be a long term contributor to our overall sales mix. As we continue to work on revised mining plans, we are optimistic that we could see some increase from current production levels, which are have presently projected at approximately 275,000 tons for 2018. We hope to provide updated guidance during next quarter's conference call. All of our deep mines at Elk Creek operated at high levels of productivity in the second quarter. This included our new number 2 gas mine which had its first full quarter of production. The qualities that we are experiencing at this mine are net positive for our overall coal blends. During the second quarter, this mine operated at nearly the same high productivity levels as…

Michael Windisch

Analyst

Thank you, Mike. As Randy mentioned previously this quarter's performance into June 30, was financially solid for Ramaco Resources. During the three month period, we reported net income of $10.2 million or $0.25 per share and adjusted EBITDA of $14.9 million. Both represent significant increases both sequentially and year-over-year. For the first half of the year, net income totaled $15.5 million or $0.38 per share, and adjusted EBITDA was $24.2 million. Our performance was driven by increase production revenue, as well as our cash mining costs decreasing to levels we have previously guided to. Capital expenditures totaled $14.7 million during the quarter, and $27.5 million during the first half. We expect this pace to slow significantly in the back half of the year. We also recognized income tax expense of $642,000 this quarter and approximately $1.4 million for the six month period. This represents an effective tax rate of 8.5% which is our projection for the full year. Cash taxes are still anticipated to be less than $400,000 for 2018. During the quarter, we added $9 million in short term borrowings, to meet normal working capital requirements. This was comprised of a $6 million increase in borrowings from a third-party as well as a $3 million short term note from a related party. We are currently negotiating a larger ABL facility to help us manage working capital on a longer term basis, which is particularly impacted by higher priced export sales. With that, I would like to turn the call back over to Randy Atkins, for some closing remarks before we open the lines for Q&A.

Randall Atkins

Analyst

Great, thanks Mike. As I said, I appreciate everyone being on the call now, and we would be delighted to field questions from anybody out there in the audience.

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from Michael Dudas of Vertical Research. Your line is open.

Michael Dudas

Analyst

Good morning gentlemen.

Michael Bauersachs

Analyst

Hey, Mike.

Randall Atkins

Analyst

Hey, Mike.

Michael Dudas

Analyst

Appreciate the updated, the quicker financials [ph] and the presentations, very helpful and look forward to more in the future. So first for Mike, looking at the, I think reminding us about your qualities of coal and some of the spreads that have been blowing out and moving about a bit for the domestic and potential international market, how that might play into your current customer mix and I can understand you want to be you know first movers either your first customer being quite important to you but how quality needs and the production shortfall, some of things that you've - you've indicated in the call could lead to better different markets for some of your coal you can blend and potentially sweeten up potential revenue and pricing as we move into 2019? Well, I think I think the great thing about our situation right now Mike is we've got lots of alternatives. This time last year, we had very few. And I think that I think that we very well could see more of our tons placed internationally. There was a pretty good - when you look at the numbers for year-end the domestic producers ended up being of course our largest buyers. But as we look at our quality mix I mean there are—of the five or so domestic customers they're probably three of the guys that really like our qualities a lot which is our strong suit really isn't A, B kind of coal kind of in the middle. And the important thing is to get the premium for being in the middle of the zone as opposed to selling for a high ball B coal. And in some cases this year we did sell as a highball B coal for some of the reasons we've discussed. So I think you'll see us sell, let's say plus/minus 50% domestically with the rest being going export. But also having our buyers appreciate our A, B, quality more. Even though we can ship an A coal, it's AB coal that we really want to make sure our customer's value the most, so.

Randall Atkins

Analyst

I think, Mike - this is Randy. Also as we look at potential production into '19 our bias is probably going to be toward the As either to be able to sell that as a pure A or blended up in some of our existing coals so we've got a stronger AB or at least an A that we can elevate some of our existing plants for. So that's why we're optimistic on mean price index.

Michael Bauersachs

Analyst

Well, Mike, one of the other things that changed and I've mentioned that our service mine really is a percentage of production has performed better as far as the number of tons that have gone metallurgical. And we really, after looking back at the first six months we really don't make a B coal. It's a better, it's a better quality coal than that so, anyway if that's helpful.

Michael Dudas

Analyst

No, it is. Thank you for that. Second question is if you can elaborate a little more on the issues with the NS frustrating as they may be. Is there a sense of how much of an impact in Q2 and what you could see looking into the fourth quarter and any way to mitigate such issues as you're thinking about the '19 business and certainly in the blending and mixing front?

Randall Atkins

Analyst

Yeah. I mean we do think that Norfolk Southern is going to get better, it is frustrating. We don't think that there is going to be much of an impact on us in the third and fourth quarters, because we found some alternate places to ship some of those tons. And just not that big impact really, when you look at our Berwind production and you look at our purchase coal. It - in essence what it causes us to do is to is to change the mix a little bit on where the coal goes. So we have entered into some domestic pieces of business that should have more reliable cycle times coming out of Knox Creek at pretty good margins by the way so.

Michael Bauersachs

Analyst

And Mike, also looking forward needless to say when we ramp up Berwind that's going to be a Norfolk Southern customer. So that's frankly what we're hoping to get every issue resolved with the Norfolk Southern before we really get to that level of production it becomes a meaningful issue for us.

Michael Dudas

Analyst

No, that makes sense. My final question is Mike or Chris, intrigued about your comment on labor and turnover maybe some metrics about how many you have, are you looking - are you short folks, or long folks and as this impact, we have seen in reasonable markets. Do you think it will be a limitation to your potential growth plans or more importantly other of your customers that your or the suppliers or vendors that you buy the purchased coal from or others that are competing with you in the marketplace. Is there something that you really nervous about or just keep a watch?

Michael Bauersachs

Analyst

Mike, I am going to let Chris Blanchard tee that one up. Go ahead Chris.

Michael Dudas

Analyst

Sure, good morning Chris.

Christopher Blanchard

Analyst

Good morning, Mike. So, we still are running around 300 employees at our operations. The turnover levels have ticked up some. Some of that is sort of natural to the industry right after the miners' vacation period in July. But we are able to replace them with experienced miners and we're not running any of our mines shorthanded currently. The pool of available miners has contracted reasonably. You can tell in the number of applications that are turned down. But I would say we are only slightly nervous about it on a go forward basis, on the ability to staff the mines at Elk Creek. I think we still have an extremely desirable place for employees to work, given the total package of focus on safety and coal mines that you can stand up and walk around and that are productive and that, they are given everything they need to be productive, and save. So I think total package, we're okay and we just are reverting sort of back to the normal levels of turnover for the industry. At our Berwind operation, going forward, the labor pool in the McDowell county parts, southern part of West Virginia and Southwest part of Virginia is still pretty wide open and there is available labor there. The larger part of our ramp up will be there as we go forward.

Michael Dudas

Analyst

Excellent, thank you gentlemen for your thoughts.

Michael Bauersachs

Analyst

Thanks Mike.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Jeremy Sussman of Clarkson. Your line is now open.

Jeremy Sussman

Analyst

Good morning everyone.

Michael Bauersachs

Analyst

Hey Jeremy.

Jeremy Sussman

Analyst

So if I think about sort of the ramp I guess in Q1 you produced around 400,000 tons, this past quarter, close to 500,000 tons. So good to see the ramp, good to see the surface mine performing better. I guess as we think about kind of the back half for the year, anything we should take note of, only think about kind of production levels?

Michael Bauersachs

Analyst

I'll let Christy.

Christopher Blanchard

Analyst

Jeremy, this is Chris. The only real thing to keep in mind for Q3 and Q4, is Q3 has the one vacation period in July, which we have already gone through and then we have two vacation periods in Q4, which just three weeks cumulative of lower production. But aside from that, I mean we might see the numbers. If the numbers are flat in Q3 and Q4, it's actually showing a continued improvement over Q2, but we don't see anything big that should pull this down.

Jeremy Sussman

Analyst

That's helpful, thanks Chris. And maybe switching gears I guess on the pricing front, it looks like you've continued to sign export met coal contracts, pretty much in line with market pricing, I think this past quarter and the 107 per ton range or so. Obviously that's well above kind of the legacy domestic contract. So I guess, how - as we head into 2019, how should we kind of think about the dynamic of export versus domestic, volume and pricing.

Michael Bauersachs

Analyst

So Jeremy as I kind of touched on I think we haven't settled into a split between domestic and export for '19 yet, obviously there is factors that weigh on each side. We probably would have all things equal, perhaps better rail service and logistics on domestic business, than we would export. But we obviously have potentially better pricing on export than we would domestic. I think we'll get some clarity, probably within the next - certainly this quarter. But frankly probably within the next 30 to 60 days on where a lot of the domestic buyers are seeing the market. And I think we will be guided in part by what kind of pricing expectations we see. Obviously we continue to see a pretty market out there into 2019. I think they have jump the domestic guys have jumped in early this year. Because as I said, they don't want to get burned with a ramp up toward the fourth quarter and that's certainly conceivable, if you saw China perhaps jump in with some meaningful infrastructure spending. So you know, the jury's out on we going to split our '19 book.

Randall Atkins

Analyst

I think as we at some at some of the processes that are ongoing and there is no doubt of more of the convergence in pricing. You know, real question is where does it all shake out but, I think from our perspective and where we priced coal this year for any number of reasons obviously, we should see appreciable increase in our domestic pricing. I can tell you whether that will equal sort of what these export numbers are today or not. But far closer to that than where we entered into business this year.

Christopher Blanchard

Analyst

Or in '17 rather.

Randall Atkins

Analyst

Yes.

Jeremy Sussman

Analyst

Right, that's great color and it sounds good outlook for you. So thanks and good luck.

Michael Bauersachs

Analyst

Thanks. Jeremy

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Lucas Pipes of B. Riley. Your line is open.

Lucas Pipes

Analyst

Hey, good morning, gentleman and congrats on the quarter. I wanted to take another crack on the pricing side and kind if you had to sign - if you were signing domestic business today, where do you think that would roughly shake out? And putting that differently, I think you mentioned in your prepared remarks on the Q3 call, you'll be giving 2019 guidance. If you were putting the budget together for 2019 today on the pricing side, what sort of price would you plugin there? Would appreciate your thoughts. Thank you.

Michael Bauersachs

Analyst

So Lucas, I can give you a definitive answer. The price would be higher. But that obviously, we don't want to try and sit there and with regards to the board and give you precise numbers. But I think, you all on the line obviously are very close to the markets and can understand where the prices seem to be right now. I think it's really going to be a question, frankly, more on the buy side. We're not going to sell tons in what we feel is not a fair value to our shareholder, just to have domestic business. So I think it's going to be a function of how aggressive the domestic steel groups will be in terms of their pricing for 2019.

Lucas Pipes

Analyst

Got it.

Michael Bauersachs

Analyst

I think too, it's just a totally different situation really for the entire industry. We've seen huge trends for coal being potentially sourced to Asia. On the call, I mentioned that we might send some test shipments that way. We're working on some more alternatives. And one thing is for sure, we'll not sell coal at the price we sell for this odd point 17 [ph] no, question. And I think that you'll see, a substantial change in the domestic pricing for us. It's difficult to talk about especially when the there is so many RFPs outstanding and we have got so many different discussions that are ongoing. So I think the right answers to say that it should be substantially better for us. May be a little it's different for others, but substantially better for us domestically.

Lucas Pipes

Analyst

Thanks, that's very good hear and may be switching over to the operational side. Mike, or Chris, you are veterans of the industry seeing a lot of mines just getting developed over your careers. And I wondered if you could maybe elaborate on profitability of the worst case scenario at Berwind and maybe you could elaborate on what that worst case scenario would mean both in terms of capital cost as well as production delays. Thank you.

Michael Bauersachs

Analyst

Yeah, I think I'll start by saying, it's all of the steps that we've taken and the things that we've done, I think so far are positive. I'm going to let Chris kind of jump in and chat a little bit about it. I describe generally what some of those things could be. But let's let Chris jump in, he is obviously been in the mine every week for the last remaining months and he knows what's going and he is in charge of the drilling program we've undertaken. So I will let him jump in and give you more details.

Christopher Blanchard

Analyst

Yeah, Lucas, so the worst case scenario with Berwind is that their current drilling program that we are doing shows that the sandstone intrusion cuts off our alternate route to the Pocahontas 4. In that case then we've to - we have to back up and do the economics and determine whether we drive through the sandstone channel which at one location we know it's 800 feet horizontally through the channel. There may be some shorter places. But obviously that's in the several million dollar range to drive through a sandstone channel like that. And probably also several months of development work and delay. So that's the worst case. We've got, we've drilled nine holes thus far. I mean they're all relatively deep holes in sort of virgin territory to get to. So that takes a while to develop the sites and drill the holes. And we've got at least 5 more before we'll be able to be extremely confident that we in fact will not hit that sandstone channel. But with 9 of them drilled so far, everything has been as expected or favorable as far as Seam conditions encountered. So cautiously optimistic but until all the data in and of course we don't know for certain. Intermediate term, by having the pullback from the rock the first time Mike mentioned, we're delayed about six months in reaching the Pocahontas 4 Horizon, which pushes that from the end of '19 in to the beginning of '20. But at this point, as we sit here today that is the magnitude of the effect.

Michael Bauersachs

Analyst

And Lucas just to reiterate what Chris said, when we look at this issue right now, it's really more of a Q3 or Q4 '19 issue, moving it out maybe at least 46 months. But it is not certainly anything that we're going have an impact on our earnings before that point in time.

Lucas Pipes

Analyst

Got it. No, that's helpful. Maybe just one quick follow on that. If when would [indiscernible] end, so when would you complete the drilling program?

Michael Bauersachs

Analyst

We should, - mean before the end of the third quarter, I would say probably unless we encounter some sort of issues in the field weather-related type issues sometime before the end of September.

Lucas Pipes

Analyst

Okay. Well I'll leave it here and best of luck.

Michael Bauersachs

Analyst

Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Mark Levin of Seaport Global. Your line is open.

Mark Levin

Analyst

Okay, great. Thank you very much. A couple of quick questions, one on the balance sheet. Looks like cash at the end of the quarter was about $5 million down from $7 million. I know there is a big receivable number. Maybe you can talk about how you expect the cash situation to trend, what's the optimal liquidity level for the company at this point? And yeah, just sort of how you see the balance sheet evolving and where the free cash goes.

Michael Bauersachs

Analyst

Yeah, I think you've asked a couple of questions there Mark, and I'll queue it up and then perhaps let Mike Windisch also add some. So basically we're - the good and bad news is we have sold sufficiently that we've got a pretty good size book of receivables which we have previously kind of carried out of our own pocket. And we are now in the process of negotiating as Mike said, an ABL facility, which will essentially take that burden off of our own cash and put it basically into our receivable. So we expect to have that completed before the end of probably September. And at that point, we will basically just manage our - do our cash management from that. In terms of - on the optimal cash position, I would say for a company of our size, I would say we would be comfortable in keeping probably $10 million to $15 million cash balance, certainly that much availability. So I think that answers both the questions I heard unless there is another one.

Mark Levin

Analyst

No, that's great. And then on the CapEx, I know you guys raised it again. And I think you raised it last quarter, you've raised it this quarter. Maybe just some color as to what you've seen over the last 6 months to cause you to raise the CapEx as you have. And then again thinking on to 2019, is this sort of the new run-rate we should think about for CapEx next year or there is more one off stuff this year?

Randall Atkins

Analyst

We think - well we did some of our CapEx this year Mark, which we then have to capitalize some of the development cost. So that's probably bumped up this quarter a little bit from what we had expected before. Obviously we have been in development mode since we frankly got started back in late '16. So our heavy cash spend is really in the rear view mirror right now. As we look forward other than initiating some potentially new projects, it's pretty much going to be just finish up of some development CapEx as well as our normal maintenance CapEx and I think there's a slide that we put in the earnings deck here, which kind of gives you an idea, we see that the back half of this year dropping substantially from the front half. And then as I said, we'll sit down with the board as we do our 2019 planning and come up with an idea about where we want to spend in 2019, whether we want to put in some new mines, Mike alluded to the Ground Tunnel [ph] as being sort of one of the ones we're looking strongly and sort of see where we come out at that point for next year.

Christopher Blanchard

Analyst

I'll note too Mark that, some of the things that we have done that we decided that we really needed to do, included plus/minus $4 million for this paved toll road. But I can tell you, having been on-site recently it's going to make a huge difference in the reliability and the velocity of our trucking and also costs. I mean you really can justify it very quickly on cost structure changes. So it's something we felt like we needed to do, because we don't want to repeat the first quarter. We want the rest of the quarters to look like this quarter. So if we would have…

Mark Levin

Analyst

Yeah, that makes perfect sense. Let me shift, really quickly to the rails. You've called out Norfolk Southern service. I'm just curious like how rates have been trending maybe the rates you're paying in Q1 versus the rates you're paying in Q2 and what you expect to pay in Q3?

Michael Bauersachs

Analyst

Yeah, I mean, we've had some fluctuation but it hasn't been huge. I mean it's been over the course of the first six months, maybe we've had $3 change or so in the rates. I mean, you know how it goes. If we could predict what the pricing will be, that comes down. It's going to come down a bit. But it's held within a pretty tight range. And frankly, as pricing has held within a pretty tight range. So it's always increased whenever you see the export numbers where they are.

Mark Levin

Analyst

That makes sense now, and I realize it's tied to that. I was just curious if would expect maybe more specifically just given that prices have come down quarter-over-quarter, if you would see some relief on the rate side a little bit.

Michael Bauersachs

Analyst

I mean if it continues to move downward from the 170 or so range, I mean, you'll have a couple dollars in relief.

Mark Levin

Analyst

Okay, no, that's perfect. Mike. And then just a final question, I think going back to some previous ones about the domestic versus export. Realizing last year you guys were a new company and breaking into two new blends, maybe you took a bit of a discount to the prevailing market price. As you think about 2019 verses 2018, do you feel like you will have to be in or will be in that situation again? Or do you feel like having been in the blend for a year, people having a chance to sort of test burn and i.e., in terms of test burn use, use your coking coals that the pricing you guys will get will be very similar to sort of market based pricing.

Michael Bauersachs

Analyst

Absolutely, Mark. I mean there's no question. So you can tell by the shipments we've done what we said we would do. The qualities have by and large than what we thought they would be and many cases to due to surface mine being better. We basically, look, some of this is having started up all these coal mines. We basically figured out we really don't have a B coal. It's either A or AB and I think going forward you'll see us price much more strongly and to our customer base domestically, which is really where the deficit has been this year.

Randall Atkins

Analyst

And Mark, just to add to that, for maybe a statement of the obvious, but when we priced all of the domestic stuff in 2017, obviously we had some issues with test shipments deliveries, being able to watch our own coal, et cetera. That is all behind us. And so this year we will be starting fresh and pretty much on equal footing with any other producer.

Mark Levin

Analyst

That's probably the best news. That's great to hear. And congratulations not only on that, but congratulations on what I think is your best quarter as a public company. Thanks, guys.

Michael Bauersachs

Analyst

Thank you so much.

Randall Atkins

Analyst

Appreciate that, Mark.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Curt Woodworth of Credit Suisse. Your line is open.

Curt Woodworth

Analyst

Thanks. Good morning, everyone.

Michael Bauersachs

Analyst

Yeah. Hey, Curt.

Curt Woodworth

Analyst

So on Berwind, just to clarify, assuming the sandstone issue is somewhat mitigated. Is the best case scenario the four-month delay, so instead of like a late 2019 ramp into Pocahontas number 4, you'd be more like 2Q then? And then if, if it is more of a serious issue then it'd be more like eight to nine month delay so like a late 2022, entry into number 4?

Michael Bauersachs

Analyst

Yeah. I think that's, at least with the data we have right now that's a pretty good approximation. Four months in the best case and that's just because of driving around, around the channel and 4 months plus another four to six months, if we would have to go through the sandstone. But that's the 2Q of 20 - for the Pocahontas 4 sort of base case and 4Q or 1Q of '21 in worst case.

Christopher Blanchard

Analyst

And Curt, as you are familiar from our ramp up production at Berwind, we weren't going to be into meaningful production at Berwind until we hit the 4. So when we are going through where we are now on the 3 seam, we had never predicted that to be more than couple of hundred thousand tons. So it's not going to bother anything in terms of our overall production slate until as I said probably later in '19.

Curt Woodworth

Analyst

Okay. Understood, and then Mike for Elk Creek given that the surface high wall is operating better, the initial plan I think was contemplating, adding a second surface high wall unit and then Ground Tunnel wasn't really discussed. So is you are thinking now that you kind of want to do that in you are more serious about the Ground Tunnel and can you kind of talk about what a good production base could look like for Elk Creek in 2019?

Michael Bauersachs

Analyst

Yeah. I think, we have a number of options that we're looking at they probably there two coal mines, deep mines that we are probably going towards putting in, depending on the circumstances. Ground tunnel I think is fairly high on the list. The problem is by the time you buy equipment, put development in, maybe you have an impact of 9,000 tons or so. The - as we look at next year though, I think what the lead times and those kinds of things, I think you should sort of think about it as plus/ minus 1.8 million to 2 million tons and then we'll see how the - we'll see how our planning goes. I think Elk Creek can ultimately buy itself 2.5 million tons. We push it hard enough. And I think we can, it's just going to take more deep mines to make up for the surface mine. I will tell you right now, I mean we think the surface mine has the potential to be better than 275,000 tons. We need to utilize the high ore mine more and I think we will going forward. So if one of the questions that we continue ask ourselves is do we need a little bit more equipment on the surface mine to continue open up, we offer the high wall miner so, we're looking at that. But I think roughly you could see us commit but two deep mines in, in the next six months or so, which will be a nice increase so.

Curt Woodworth

Analyst

Okay. That's interesting. And then on tons you are selling on index, can you tell us what the index ASP was this quarter and then looking out to the back half of the year, can you give us any guidance on - looking at like say the East Coast Bax [ph] price for Highwall A what would be the appropriate discount to apply to that assuming like $30 rail or how should we model that?

Randall Atkins

Analyst

Yeah. When we think about - we are basically selling two different coals internationally. One is kind of priced off a Highwall A index but it's a Highwall A index minus say 3%, 4%, 5%, maybe yeah, plus or minus 5%, I think. I think on the B side we are plus about that. So when you put them together what you say ratably it's 50-50 or so. So that's kind of how we are, how our qualities are priced. I think, in the future I think we can do better on the B side than we're doing now. You are pretty much right on the rail, when you look coal in the - coal in the both let's say we're - we're back at the mine and what we would realize let's just say it's $110 or so.

Curt Woodworth

Analyst

Okay. That's it from me. Congrats on the great quarter. Appreciate it.

Michael Bauersachs

Analyst

Thanks.

Operator

Operator

And we have a question from the line of Timothy Healy of Healy Group. Your line is open.

Timothy Healy

Analyst

Good morning, gentlemen. I would like - I believe that's probably a political problem for you to answer. But the basic question here seems to be whether or not you've already have full support from Norfolk and Southern and your successful efforts here to develop this business. Seems to me looking at the Norfolk and Southern ten year stock picture, that they're dining out on their business. And I'm just concerned that because you're the new kid on the block, so to say, whether or not Norfolk and Southern is going to have - be able to provide those Gondolos to move you product. Because you can produce it but will it get to Norfolk? Thank you.

Michael Bauersachs

Analyst

It's a good question. But one I think is going to be fine. I mean really we've been a fairly minor player to be honest up to this point which you can see in the production. As our production becomes more meaningful, I know that we will get more attention. We're the really one of the only guys on the - in that are increasing production or plan to increase production substantially. And when you become more or less plus/minus 1 million tons supplier if it's a big it's a big difference from where we are today. Having had lots of discussion with NS, I do know that they've leased equipment, they've brought on crews. We know how hard it is to hire people in that part of the country. And in their defense where they missed it in my opinion, is they underestimated the amount of steam coal that they're shipping on their rail line and exporting as a percentage of their overall shipments and it remains much bigger question mark, whether steam coal will continue at the trends they're at today versus what's been more a traditional heavy met shipment. So I think we're going to be okay, but we continue to push them to improve. Again once we're more meaningful I think it will absolutely get better.

Timothy Healy

Analyst

Thank you. I hope they continue to take your phone calls.

Michael Bauersachs

Analyst

Yeah, me too. We're persistent.

Operator

Operator

And I'm showing no further questions at this time. I'd like to turn the call back over for any closing remarks.

Michael Bauersachs

Analyst

As always, we very much appreciate everybody being on the line. We're looking forward to another good quarter ahead as well as the balance of the year. And we will keep everyone posted. Thank you so much. Thanks.

Operator

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen thank you for participating in today's conference. This does conclude the program and you may all disconnect. Everyone have a great day.