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Medpace Holdings, Inc. (MEDP)

Q1 2018 Earnings Call· Tue, May 1, 2018

$411.60

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good morning and welcome to the Medpace First Quarter 2018 Earnings conference call. Before we begin, I will read Medpace’s Safe Harbor forward-looking statements. During today’s call, management’s remarks and responses to your questions during this teleconference may include forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These statements involve inherent assumptions with known and unknown risks and other important factors that could cause the company’s future results to differ materially from management’s current expectations, including those discussed in the Risk Factors section of our Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2017 filed with the SEC. Management disclaims any obligations to update forward-looking statements in the future even if estimates change. Accordingly, you should not rely on any of today’s forward-looking statements as representing management’s views as of any date after today. During this call, management will be also referring to certain non-GAAP financial measures. A reconciliation of such non-GAAP financial measures to the most directly comparable GAAP measures is available as attachment to the earnings press release and earnings call presentation slides provided in connection with today’s call. The slides are available on the company’s Investor Relations section of its website at investor.medpace.com. With that, I will now turn the call over to Dr. August Troendle, Medpace President and Chief Executive Officer for opening remarks. Dr. Troendle, please begin.

August Troendle

Management

Thank you, Operator. Good day everyone and welcome to Medpace’s first quarter 2018 earnings call. With me on the call is Jesse Geiger, our Chief Financial Officer and Chief Operating Officer of Labs. Please refer to slide 3 on our earnings presentation. Revenue for the first quarter of 2018 was 163.1 million. Under our old approach applying ASC 605 Q1 service revenue came in at a 108.4 million at increase of 15.6% as reported and 14.2% on a constant dollar organic basis over Q1 of 2017. Net new business awards entering backlog were 128.2 million giving a 1.18 book to bill ratio. At the end of Q1 our employee headcount was 2,555 under both ASC 605 and ASC 606. Nobody was lost in transition. We would like to distance ourselves from the 2017 slowdown as quickly as possible and Q1 2018 was a good start. However, Q1 growth was ahead of curve benefiting from the acceleration of several projects with pull forward revenue we anticipated for Q2. Therefore, the growth trajectory will not be smooth this year, even as we expect fundamentally accelerating backlog growth and ultimately revenue at a more normalized conversion rate. I would like to recognize some of the challenges we face in achieving steady and consistent quarterly growth. Our strategy of providing exclusively full-service offerings significantly limits our opportunities in large companies where there is an interesting in more flexible outsourcing model. We therefore have a high concentration of small pre-revenue clients and greater sensitivity to biotech funding. Although we see no signs of a slowdown at present, we must admit that we did not recognize early signs of one at late 2016, which resulted in unexpectedly low revenue growth for 2017. Our decision to expand business development bandwidth, which are discussed in our last earnings call should improve flexibility in targeting clients based on funding flows, however the long sales cycle and clinical outsourcing suggested short-term changes in funding flows will be hard to mitigate effectively. All this leads me to reiterate that we will probably experience more quarterly volatility than our peers. That said, we see a strong demand for our services and expect continued strong backlog growth through the remainder of 2018 and borrowing a slowdown in funding double-digit service revenue growth on an ASC 605 basis going forward. Our investments in the business are progressing well and we are optimistic about our organic growth prospects. Then in attempt to save some time by anticipating questions I would add the following. The funding environment was good with projects moving forward as we would expect. RFP volume was strong in Q1. Our competitive hit rate was strong in Q1 and has been for the past three quarters. Cancellations were in line with our expectation and historical range. Oncology was our strongest therapeutic area through backlog awards. And there was no particular concentration among our backlog awards. Now Jesse will provide a review in more detail over financial performance. Jesse?

Jesse Geiger

Management

Thank you, August and good morning to everyone listening in. As a reminder on January 1st 2018, we adopted ASC 606 using the modified retrospective approach and we now recognize revenue on a percentage of completion basis and a single performance obligation, inclusive of service revenue, reimbursed out of pocket revenue and revenue from fees paid to investigators and other arrangements where the company acts as an agent on behalf of the customer. Under this new standard, our revenues were reported within a single revenue line item and related expenses are presented with indirect costs. For the 2018 reporting period we will continue to provide disclosures as if we were reporting under ASC 605 so that comparisons can be made on a consistent basis. In the future, we will also provide a new net business awards backlog and the related metrics on an ASC 606 basis. Revenue under ASC 606 was 163.1 million in the first quarter of 2018. Net service revenue under the previous standard ASC 605 was 108.4 million which represents year-over-year growth of 16.6% on a reported basis or 14.2% on a constant currency basis. We did experience elevated revenue in the first quarter partially driven by increased activities across several projects ramping up quicker than anticipated with heavy upfront activities. Adjusted EBITDA was 28.7 million in the first quarter of 2018. Under ASC 605, adjusted EBITDA was 31 million which increased 18.2% compared to 26.2 million in the first quarter of 2017. Our calculation of adjusted EBITDA in the first quarter of 2018 includes an adjustment for our corporate campus lease payments. On a constant currency basis under ASC 605 first quarter adjusted EBITDA increased 22% compared to the prior year. Adjusted EBITDA margin was 17.6% for the first quarter of 2018. Adjusted EBITDA for the…

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] The first question will come from John Kreger of William Blair. Your line is open.

John Kreger

Analyst

August are you able to quantify the pull forward that you saw in the first quarter relating to these two projects? And maybe you can just talk a little bit more is that something that you tend to see? What's the nature of the change that would drive that?

August Troendle

Management

It was a number of things some of it was a quicker startup, some of it was just heavier burn because of the position of the project that came up earlier. And I don't have an exact number for how much would have been and second quarter how much was kind of added -- add-on services that hit in the quarter but I think you will get an idea from our kind of our guidance clues and how much we've over performed, I think a good part of that was related to timing of things and that's why I think it would certainly things have been pull forward and we would expect to that to pull revenue end of the year, overall and into the third quarter and fourth quarters as the project accelerates but a lot of it was also unique things in the quarter that I think came at a second quarter, but it was going to -- it doesn't increase the entire year as proportionately. So, I don't have a specific dollar value but…

Jesse Geiger

Management

John one way to think about it is we had a conversion of 20.7% in the first quarter and we had expected a conversion or a burn rate probably closer to the 19.5% range in the first quarter.

John Kreger

Analyst

And Jesse one for you I know there is a lot of noise around the conversion from 605 to 606, at this point do have a sense about the kind of EPS hit to '18 full-year from 606. I just saw it was $0.05 and in the quarter and longer term should we think about 606 versus 605 is sort of a loss, will it help earnings in '19 and '20 or hurt them in '19 and '20.

Jesse Geiger

Management

I think it's a little too early to tell on the full year impact it was $0.05 difference in Q1, then the one thing I can point to is that, there are just two points estimates right now there is what was the Q1 impact, and then the other piece that's reflected in what was our cumulative opening adjustment from 605 or 606 perspective and the Q1 impact was larger than the cumulative impact recognized on day one of adoption, but where that goes overtime and how it ebbs and flows I think it's too early to tell.

August Troendle

Management

And larger not larger dollar wise but larger in reference kind of growth of the company. If we look at it as all these projects ongoing with 500 million in backlog, how much have we grown, it was a very large several times larger than you would have expected relative to the opening level, the opening sheet and balance sheet adjustments that were made.

Jesse Geiger

Management

So as far as what’s the overall impact for the year or thinking about it for 2019 or 2020. I think as we build some experience here on a 606 basis. We will begin to get a better idea and refine our models and likewise help you refine yours but again over the life of the project no economic impact is it going to move some activities between periods just based on the matching -- it does have the effect of disconnecting a little bit the cost and the related revenue from a period to period basis.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. The next question is from Erin Wright of Credit Suisse. Your line is open.

Erin Wright

Analyst

Just follow-up on the pull forward here I guess how much does come out of the second quarter I guess this entry what I'm looking forward how should we be thinking about that quarterly progression and what lingers maybe and to the third and fourth quarter throughout the year in terms of that progression of revenue.

August Troendle

Management

I think that we are not going to give quarterly guidance and so how much was pulled out versus pull forward and so some things might have might have been projected for Q3 coming to Q2. I don’t think we are prepared to say. I do think you can look at is kind of both one-off issues in the quarter and some projects that accelerated that will -- are going to be going for a couple of years and so pulling them forward helps later in the year too. And that’s why overall guidance for the year was increased. So, I think it’s a combination. I think what you can expect this Q2 to be under Q1 but we are not giving kind of a quarter by quarter cadence.

Erin Wright

Analyst

And in the head count set up obviously in the quarter. Is this I guess ahead of some of the aforementioned acceleration in projects. I guess how should we be thinking about how that progresses throughout the year? And how is the hiring environment just generally speaking?

August Troendle

Management

So, we are hiring pretty aggressively because we have backlog growth that is ahead of where we had hoped to be. And things look strong and we said something we can shut down rather rapidly if things softened but right now, the business development environment looks very strong, so we are hiring aggressively. We are also doing those investments we talked about and we had some I think pretty good luck in terms of employee departures in first quarter. So, we were able to effectively add employees.

Operator

Operator

The next question is from David Hooker of Keybanc. Your line is open.

David Hooker

Analyst

I wanted to get a sense also [indiscernible] revenue from employee was up, but gross margins are down, I am just trying to get my bearings here in terms of what's the right gross margin for the business of all, are these investments going forward? I guess maybe for this year and then kind of structurally where are you because I guess if I look back over gross margins are above 50% going back, I don’t know if that’s the right level going forward at some point. Can you talk about -- can you bear me around gross margins?

Jesse Geiger

Management

Sure Don, our guidance still implies 25% EBITDA margin and we do anticipate while it was lower in the first quarter we do expect SG&A growth for the year in the 16% to 17% range, and so that implies gross profit in the 42% or so percent range for the year.

David Hooker

Analyst

Is that a right gross margin for you guys at this point, long term I guess, given some of the expanded geographies that you are operating in? Or how do we think about gross margins structurally overtime for this business?

August Troendle

Management

At this point as we think about what level of flat capacity we have and how much of that do we maintain as we look at the growth in the pipeline. I think it’s a good working assumption, for now. Obviously as the business development funnel expands and contracts that can change the pace at which we are hiring but right now I think it’s a good working assumption.

David Hooker

Analyst

And maybe last just kind of hammering this theme in terms of profitability. Are there things aside from hiring and firing and moving -- managing your staff around your use of IT and technology and other things that you can do or that you had some success with driving efficiencies, perhaps outside of hiring and firing?

August Troendle

Management

We are always building and we are always looking at data partnerships and use and we invest quite a bit in our IT and software systems to analyze it. So, I think we have a number of projects that are adding to our investment this year and will continue, so I would say yes there is a lot of it. I don't think we give a specific project names to them, but we have a half-dozen initiatives in enhancing our data utilization and recruitment is one of the key areas there that we are trying to improve.

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] The next question is from Jason Twizell of MUfG Securities. Your line is open.

Jason Twizell

Analyst

First of all, I just wanted to given the that 20 million pay down on the revolver and a strong cash flow generation in a quarter just want to get an update on cash your use of cash for the year.

Jesse Geiger

Management

Capital allocation priority for us remains debt pay down so we will continue to focus on deleveraging with our cash flow. We do expect for the elevated CapEx that we've spoken out for the year relative to prior years and so, capital expenditures and debt reduction are our top two priorities.

Jason Twizell

Analyst

And then just I guess from a high level looking at the patient recruitment environment how challenging is that? How difficult it is in order to avoid having project delays occurring? Has that change overtime are you still having some where difficulties as everyone else has over the last few years.

August Troendle

Management

I think it's something that deep in the industry has not solved, it's the primary issue and timing of a clinical trial particularly when you get into more rare diseases and our business is around rare disease and oncology largely today, so recruitment is a key part of that and I don’t think that anyone's got a perfect solution but I think we do a very good job at it and that's how we differentiate ourselves.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. There are no further questions in queue at this time. I’d like to turn the call back over Dr. Troendle for closing remarks.

August Troendle

Management

All right, well thank you everyone for joining us on our earnings call and talk to you at our next earnings call end of Q2. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today’s conference. You may now disconnect.