Operator
Operator
Good morning and welcome to the Mondelēz International second quarter 2016 earnings conference call. Today's call is scheduled to last about one hour, including remarks by Mondelēz management and the question-and-answer session. I'd now like to turn the call over to Mr. Brian Gladden, EVP and CFO of Mondelēz International. Please go ahead, sir. Brian T. Gladden - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: Great, thank you, Paula. Good morning and thanks for joining us. Before we get started, I wanted to take a moment to thank Dexter Congbalay for his many contributions to our company throughout the years, including most recently running both Treasury and Investor Relations. As most of you know, Dexter will be leaving us this month. He's been a trusted partner. We'll wish him the very best both personally and professionally. I'd also like to introduce Shep Dunlap, who has joined us as our VP of Investor Relations. Shep brings a great set of skills and experience, and I'm sure you'll enjoy working with him as he settles into his new role here. With that, let me turn the call over to Shep to get started. Shep Dunlap - Vice President, Investor Relations, Mondelēz International, Inc.: Thanks for the introduction, Brian, and I'm happy to be here. Earlier today, we sent out our earnings release and presentation slides, which are also available on our website, MondelezInternational.com. As you know, during this call, we will make forward-looking statements about the company's performance. These statements are based on how we see things today. Actual results may differ materially due to risks and uncertainties. Please refer to the cautionary statements and risk factors contained in our 10-K and our 10-Q filings for more details on our forward-looking statements. Some of today's prepared remarks include non-GAAP financial measures. You can find the GAAP to non-GAAP reconciliations within our earnings release and at the back of the slide presentation. With that, I'll now turn the call over to our Chairman and CEO, Irene Rosenfeld. Irene B. Rosenfeld - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer: Thanks, Shep, and good morning. Despite a challenging environment, we continued to deliver solid results, and we're confident in delivering our 2016 outlook and 2018 margin targets. I'm pleased with the progress made by our teams in reinventing our supply chain, reducing overheads, and reinvesting in growth. Our strategy is working, driving strong near-term margin performance, providing fuel for investment, and positioning us to sustainably deliver top and bottom line growth. Long term, we expect our advantaged platform together with an ongoing focus on growth and margin expansion to drive organic net revenue at or above our category rates, double-digit adjusted EPS growth, improving cash generation, and significant return of capital to our shareholders through share repurchases and dividends. With that as context, let's review the highlights of the second quarter. Organic revenue grew 1.5%, including the negative impact of about a point from revenue management actions. Through the first half, our growth rate was 1.9%. Our power brands once again drove our top line, up 3% and in line with global categories. Emerging markets rose nearly 4%, fueled by currency-driven pricing in markets like Argentina and Russia. Developed markets were essentially flat but delivered another positive quarter of vol/mix while continuing to significantly expand margins. Our overall share performance was not yet where we wanted it to be, but we began to see meaningful improvements in a number of key markets, like chocolate in the UK, Germany, Australia, and India, as well as biscuits in Europe, and globally across our gum and candy business. This progress was partially offset by declines in some large markets such as U.S. biscuits and Brazil, where our near-term share positions were negatively impacted by aggressive competitive trade promotions. Brian will discuss market share in more detail in a moment. Adjusted OI margin for the second quarter was strong, up 210 basis points versus prior year. Cost control has now become embedded in our culture and we're firing on all cylinders, both in supply chain as well as in overheads. These first half results position us well for the full year. Our focus on cost enables us to expand margins while continuing to fuel growth. In that spirit, let me take you through two exciting opportunities that will be important drivers going forward. First, we're delighted to announce the launch of our Milka brand into China's $2.8 billion chocolate market. This is a prime example of the growth strategy in action. As we've discussed, most of our emerging markets are one- or two-category countries. We added gum to our leading China biscuit business in the second half of 2012. And today that business generates annual revenue of approximately $200 million. By leveraging a formidable power brand like Milka in a sizeable category white space, we see significant potential for chocolate in a market where per capita consumption is quite low, even by emerging market standards. We expect our unique brand assets, industry-leading innovation, a new world-class manufacturing facility, and strong sales and marketing capabilities will not only grow our business, but will also accelerate the category. While chocolate in China has recently been challenged, we believe we're well positioned to succeed. Our plans have been presented to customers and we'll enter the market in the next few weeks, well before the critical Chinese New Year season. Finally, while only a small part of our business today, we have significantly bolstered our capabilities in e-commerce. Although online snacks are relatively under-developed, we believe e-commerce will be increasingly important as consumer purchasing behavior changes. Our intent is to capture share in this fast-growing channel by leveraging our strong brands and marketing knowhow. Since the start of the year, we've taken a number of steps, including: enhancing our infrastructure; adding new experience resources and building capability; strengthening our partnerships with Amazon in the U.S., Alibaba in China, and with the e-commerce arms of our traditional retailers; as well as accelerating gift offers with personalized packaging and subscriptions on brands like Cadbury in the UK. Early results are very encouraging. In the first half, we grew our e-commerce revenue by more than 30%. Looking ahead, our goal is snacking leadership in e-commerce and over $1 billion in sales by 2020. The launch of chocolate in China and our progress in e-commerce are just two examples of investments that are continuing to build and transform our advantaged platform. Looking ahead, there's no question that the environment remains challenging, especially in emerging markets. We remain focused on what we can control, margin and share. To that end, we're taking a number of actions that will impact the second half. These include: increased A&C on our power brands; targeted investments in trade spending to narrow price gaps in key markets; several significant innovation launches, including chocolate in China; and continued expansion of our routes to market, including e-commerce, all while continuing to drive cost reduction across the enterprise. We remain confident in our strategy and execution to grow both our top and bottom lines over the long term and to create significant value for our shareholders. Before I close, I know many of you would like an update on the potential transaction with Hershey. While I can confirm that we did make an offer to Hershey, as you would expect regarding any potential M&A activity, we have no additional comments to make. With that, I'll turn the call over to Brian. Brian T. Gladden - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: Thanks, Irene. We had solid financial results for the second quarter and the first half of the year. Specifically, we delivered another quarter of strong adjusted OI margin expansion and earnings growth. Adjusted gross margin of over 40% was flat in Q2, as the negative impact of mark-to-market as well as currency-driven inflation offset another quarter of strong net productivity. In fact, our efforts to reinvent our supply chain and deploy advantaged manufacturing lines of the future continue to drive margin benefits, as we delivered net productivity of better than 3.5% for the first half. Q2 adjusted OI margin was 15.2%, up 210 basis points. This was largely driven by the ongoing ZBB [Zero-Based Budgeting] impact on our overheads and especially our execution on shared service initiatives. In addition, the margin expansion included some one-time favorable impacts from asset sales in North America. These proceeds more or less offset the negative impacts of mark-to-market and the cost of our U.S. labor-related business continuity planning. We're pleased with our first half margin performance and are slightly ahead of our plan, as our cost execution has exceeded expectations. We're also investing in additional A&C and selected incremental trade spending during the second half to support top line growth and improve share. Let me now provide some color on regional performance for both revenue and margins. North America had a very solid – a very strong margin quarter. Adjusted OI margins expanded by 470 basis points, driven by strong productivity, overhead cost reductions, as well as the previously mentioned asset sale benefit, offset somewhat by the U.S. labor business continuity planning costs. We grew organic revenue nearly 1%, driven by vol/mix increases. Escalated trade spending by our competitors negatively affected our short-term results. Overall, biscuits were up only modestly. But Oreo, belVita, and Triscuit all delivered solid consumption growth. Candy posted strong results, driven by Sour Patch Kids and Hall's. In gum, Trident turned in another quarter of solid performance, and we began the relaunch of Stride late in the quarter, which should improve shares in the months ahead. As Irene mentioned, we have several strong programs in place to better position us for the second half. Europe also had an outstanding margin quarter, with adjusted OI margin up 350 basis points to 18%, driven by strong productivity and lower overheads. Organic revenue in Europe was essentially flat, although here too we're seeing a nice progression in vol/mix and share trends. Both our chocolate and biscuit categories delivered strong results in the UK and Germany, which helped grow vol/mix by 70 basis points for the region. Building on last year's launch in the UK, we also lunched Ritz Crisp & Thin crackers in France, which is delivering good results, as we take the brand to a new consumption occasion. In EEMEA [Eastern Europe, Middle East and Africa], adjusted OI margins were flat, driven by weaker demand and the resulting volume leverage impact. Organic revenue declined more than 2%, driven by a slowdown in the Middle East and North Africa, where economic and geopolitical volatility, including the impact of low oil prices, is having a more pronounced effect on consumer demand. A very weak Ramadan season in the Middle East also tempered the top line. Despite that backdrop, Russia turned in a solid performance, growing low double digits as a result of pricing actions to offset inflation. In Asia-Pacific, our adjusted OI margins were up 190 basis points, driven by improved overheads, strong productivity, and pricing. Organic revenue increased 2% and vol/mix was positive, up more than 1%. This is our fifth consecutive quarter of growth in Asia. India benefited from the launch of Bournvita biscuits, which addresses consumers' growing need for a morning snack under a well-known brand that delivers taste and nutrition. Chocolate also generated solid gains. Australia was also strong while Southeast Asia was up for the third straight quarter. Our Kinh Do business in Vietnam continues to be a bright spot. Our teams are executing well as we integrate this business, which provides a platform to drive our power brands through its distribution network of 130,000 outlets. China declined low single digits, as the biscuit category slowed and we lapped last year's Trident gum launch. While overall China consumer demand has recently slowed, we believe longer-term dynamics will improve, as evidenced by our significant investment in chocolate that Irene discussed earlier. In Latin America, adjusted OI margins declined 210 basis points. Difficult economic conditions in Brazil pressured margins in the form of currency and volume headwinds. Latin America organic revenue grew nearly 9%, led by strength in Argentina and Mexico. Argentina grew double digits primarily due to inflation-driven pricing, while Mexico had a strong first half and continued to gain momentum, as strong vol/mix contributed to high single-digit revenue growth. Brazil declined low single digits, and we see no short-term catalyst for improvement in the Brazilian economy. We're taking actions to close selected price gaps, but we expect the market to remain challenging in terms of both revenue and margins at least through the second half. Let me spend a moment providing a few highlights by category. In aggregate, categories have slowed to about 3% year to date, driven by key emerging markets like Brazil, China, and India. Our global biscuits business grew nearly 2%, with strength in the UK, in the U.S., and Germany. Oreo led the way, growing high single digits. In addition, we're continuing to drive our well-being portfolio. belVita grew high single digits globally, while our GOOD THiNS innovation in the U.S. also posted solid results. While our biscuits share has been challenged in some key markets, we have a number of actions underway to address the issue. In the U.S., we're innovating across several winning biscuit platforms while investing incremental trade spending behind our DSD [Direct Store Delivery] execution. In Brazil, we're investing in additional advertising and consumer support while selectively narrowing price gaps on key SKUs. Our focus remains on improving our share position. We expect the incremental actions we're taking will improve our share position in the second half. Chocolate grew more than 2%, driven by solid results in India, Australia, and the UK. Also in the quarter, Germany continued to deliver strong growth as we lapped last year's revenue management actions. More than half of our revenue in chocolate grew share. Gum and candy increased nearly 2%, led by solid performance in the U.S. and Mexico. About half of our revenue in this category gained or held share. Now turning to earnings per share, for Q2, our adjusted EPS was up more than 4% on a constant currency basis, which includes the impact of coffee dilution. And for the first half, adjusted EPS increased 17% on a constant currency basis. Operating gains of $0.15 were the primary driver of the improvement. Below the line, adjusted EPS declined $0.01, as dilution from last year's coffee deal more than offset benefits from lower share count, taxes, and interest expense. Note that this will be the last quarter of coffee dilution, as we lap the close of last year's coffee transactions. I would note that both JDE and Keurig performed well in the quarter and contributed some upside versus our expectations. In the second quarter, we delivered more than $500 million of free cash flow and improved our cash conversion cycle by 20 days to minus four days. Returning capital to our shareholders remains a priority for us, and we've returned more than $1.8 billion to shareholders through the first half. We've repurchased more than $1.3 billion in our shares at an average price of $41.07, and we continue to target $2 billion in share repurchases for the year. Last week, we also announced a 12% increase in our quarterly dividend. Dividends remain an important part of our capital return strategy, as we target a payout of at least 30%. Since the spin, we've returned nearly $13 billion of cash to shareholders. Let's take a closer look at our current outlook. As you've heard today, we feel good about our first half results and expect continued strong performance in the second half despite the macro backdrop, especially in the emerging markets. Specifically, we now expect the following for 2016. We've modestly reduced our organic net revenue growth outlook to approximately 2% from at least 2%. This reflects the increasing challenges we're seeing in global categories and includes about 100 basis points from revenue management actions. We continue to expect adjusted OI margin of 15% to 16% and are increasingly confident in delivering this commitment. As you think about the second half, we expect heavier investments in the third quarter, which would lead to higher margins in the fourth quarter. We continue to expect double-digit growth in adjusted EPS on a constant currency basis. Our view now includes an incremental $0.03 to $0.05 versus our last outlook due to solid operating performance, lower interest expense, and strong performance in our coffee joint ventures. Unfortunately, based on recent spot rates, this upside will be mostly offset by currency. We expect currency to be a four-point headwind to revenue growth, up from three points. And for adjusted EPS, we estimate an $0.08 headwind, up from $0.05. This also includes our view of the Brexit impact on our results, which is limited to an approximate $0.02 headwind related to the currency translation impact on our UK-based earnings. Our net transaction exposure is very limited, as we buy a majority of our global cocoa needs in British pounds, which offsets net transaction exposure in the UK. So to summarize our EPS outlook, the upside we're seeing in EPS allows us to fully offset the negative impact of currency changes, including Brexit. Finally, we still expect free cash flow, excluding items, of at least $1.4 billion. So to wrap up, we're pleased with our results in the first half. We delivered significant margin expansion while continuing to invest behind our power brands. Our vol/mix performance continued to improve, and we returned $1.8 billion to shareholders. While we remain cautious about the challenging operating environment, we're confident in our ability to deliver on our top and bottom line targets, and we remain on track to reach our adjusted OI margin target of 17% to 18% in 2018. With that, let's open it up for questions.