David Brearton
Analyst · Stifel, Nicolaus
Thanks, Irene. In a nutshell, we've seen terrific results on both the top and bottom lines through the first half of the year. We're seeing pick up from our focused investments behind our power brands, big bets on in innovation and improved marketing. As a result, we built good volume mix, share and revenue momentum in the face of aggressive price increases. In the second quarter, organic revenues were more than 7%, including Power Brand growth of about 9%. Of course, the second quarter benefited from Easter, but looking at the first half, which normalizes for the Easter shift, organic revenue was still up nearly 6% with very solid contribution from vol/mix of 1.3 points. This was despite substantial pricing of 4.6 points. What can we expect going forward? For the full year, we now believe input cost will be up in the low teens versus last year. That's up from the high single digit increase that we forecast on our call 3 months ago. As a result, we do anticipate additional pricing actions to offset this higher costs, but as Irene mentioned, we've already announced or implemented about 85% of the pricing actions we expect to take for the year so we're confident in our outlook. Turning to profits. We continue to gain momentum. Pricing and productivity gains essentially offset higher raw material costs on a $1 basis. At the same time, continued improvements in overheads and other cost savings under the strong increase in A&C. To put it another way, we protected operating profit dollars in the quarter, even though our OI margins declined compared to peak levels a year ago. But this was essentially due to the impact of pricing under denominator of the margin calculation. Despite this, our underlying operating income margin improved sequentially from the first quarter and for the second half, we expect to see increases in year-over-year margins. Turning to EPS. As we outlined in our last earnings call, we expect second quarter operating EPS to be down versus the base of $0.60 last year. We knew we were up against difficult comparisons with peak margins in Q2 2010, as well as the reversal of mark-to-market gains in Q1 this year. But clearly, we did better than our initial expectations. Mark-to-market gains did reverse and at $0.05, they were a bit more than we expected. As for the upside, partly due from favorable currency and somewhat due to a lower than anticipated tax rate, the rest came from operating gains. On a year-to-date basis, we're encouraged that we delivered $0.06 of operating gains year-over-year despite the fact that we were up against some very difficult margin comparisons to the prior year. All of our geographies contributed to the strong performance in the quarter. In North America, despite a very difficult operating environment, our virtuous cycle continues to build momentum. Organic revenues were up 4% for the quarter and 3.1% for the first half. As expected, pricing was the key driver. As we said, we priced to offset higher cost earlier than most of our competitors. As a result, all mix declined as we thought from near-term dislocations in certain categories. Despite the significant pricing, however, we were pleased overall with the limited volume elasticity. It was consistent with our expectations and further evidence of the improved strength of our brand equity. While our Power Brands grew at above the same rate as our broader portfolio, several of our innovations made significant contributions. Our new MiO liquid beverage mix continue to generate revenues well ahead of plan. Oscar Mayer Carving Board cold cuts, Newtons Fruit Thins cookies and Philadelphia Cooking Creme, also performed well. As a result, through the first half of the year, our market shares in North America remain solid. More than half the business is holding or gaining share on a $1 basis. And we're even more encouraged by the fact that to date, we've announced roughly 85% of the pricing we believe we need to take this year. Almost all of that pricing is already reflected on store shelves. Now let's take a look at profitability. North America did a good job of pricing to offset higher raw material costs on a $1 basis. The region also continued to benefit from lower overheads. Nevertheless, operating income margins declined for peak levels a year ago due to changes in the U.S. Premium Coffee business and the denominator effect of higher pricing on the margin calculation. Looking ahead, we expect year-on-year margin improvement in the second half. On the other side of the Atlantic, our European team recorded a sixth consecutive quarter of top and bottom line growth. Organic revenues grew 6.4% in the quarter, while in the first half they rose 5.4%. As expected, pricing drove the majority of this growth, as we successfully implemented actions across all categories. As we look ahead, price increases for the third quarter have been announced in Coffee. With that, we've now announced all the pricing we expect to take in Europe this year and about 80% of our pricing is now reflected at retail. Power Brands rose 8%, including 17% of Oreo fueled by launches in Germany and Austria, leveraging our global play book. Tassimo grew 19% while [indiscernible] Coffee increased 24%. In addition, Philadelphia continue to grow strongly up 18%. And while retail sales are slowing across the region, we are continuing to drive growth for our brands and for our categories. On a Pan-European basis, year-to-date, we're increasing share of biscuits and cheese and shares are holding up well in Chocolate, Gum and Coffee. There's also good news at the profit line. Despite a difficult environment, Europe delivered another strong quarter. On a $1 basis, pricing and productivity offset the significant increase in raw material costs. While the denominator effects of pricing were a significant headwind to margin performance on a percentage basis, our continued focus on lowering overhead enabled us to post a modest increase in OI margins. Turning to Developing Markets. We generated double-digit growth and a good balance of all mix and pricing. Organic revenues grew 13.5% for the quarter and in the first half, revenues were up 11.6%. Power Brands rose 20% in the quarter led by 62% growth of Oreo. [indiscernible] Club Social crackers grew more than 40%. Lacta Chocolate was up 23% and Halls rose 16%. Within this segment, Asia-Pacific and Latin America continue to grow double-digits. And CEEMA was up nearly 10% as economic conditions begin to recover in many parts of the region. Operating income margin in the quarter rose to 14.2%, driven by overhead leverage and vol/mix gains. OI margins increased even as we continued to invest in our brands, including a strong double-digit increase in A&C. So what does this mean for the full year? Based on our solid results through the first half, and our outlook for the balance of the year, we're raising our full year 2011 guidance. On the top line, we've increased our organic net revenue guidance to at least 5% from at least 4% previously. This is mainly due to the impact of additional pricing. On the bottom line, we're raising our operating EPS guidance to at least $2.25 from at least $2.20 previously. Our guidance reflects process optimism for the balance of the year. Through the first half, we delivered strong operating gains and currency has been favorable. As a result, we're dropping the year-to-date currency benefits to the bottom line. We remain cautious with the number of uncertainties in the environment, but our End-to-End Cost Management initiatives and strong revenue growth give us confidence that we will continue to deliver high quality, sustainable growth for the balance of the year. As our performance over the past several quarters has demonstrated, our virtuous cycle is working well around the world. A key focus on Power Brands, categories and markets is driving top-tier growth in each region. We're successfully managing unprecedented input cost through renewed pricing power and improving productivity. And our End-to-End Cost Management has generated the savings necessary to expand profits and reinvest in further brand building and innovation. As a result, Kraft Foods is now positioned to deliver reliable, top-tier growth on both the top and bottom line. Now I'll turn the call back to Irene.