Operator
Operator
Good morning and welcome to the Kraft Foods second quarter 2007 earnings conference call. Today's call is scheduled to last about one hour, including remarks by Kraft Foods management and the question-and-answer session. (Operator Instructions) I will now turn the call over to Mr. Chris Jakubik, Vice President of Investor Relations for Kraft. Please go ahead, sir. Chris Jakubik: Thank you and good morning. Thanks for joining us on our conference call. I'm Chris Jakubik, Vice President of Investor Relations. With me are Irene Rosenfeld, our Chairman and CEO; and Jim Dollive, our Chief Financial Officer. Our earnings release was sent out earlier today and is available on our website at Kraft.com. As you know, during this call, we may make forward-looking statements about the company’s performance. These statements are based on how we see things today so they contain an element of uncertainty. Actual results may differ materially due to risks and uncertainties. Please refer to the cautionary statements and risk factors contained in the company’s 10-K and 10-Q filings for a more detailed explanation of the inherent limitations in such forward-looking statements. Some of today's prepared remarks will exclude those items that affect comparability. These excluded items are captured in our GAAP to non-GAAP reconciliations within our news release and they are also available on our website. We'll begin today's call by hearing from Irene who will share her perspective on our second quarter. Then Jim will provide an overview of our financials, and after that we'll take your questions. With that, I'll hand it over to Irene. Irene Rosenfeld : Thanks, Chris. Good morning, everyone and thanks for joining us. Overall, I'm pleased with the progress we made in the past few months, both in terms of our second quarter financial results and perhaps of greater importance, in how we're implementing the transformation plan we laid out in February. Today, I'm even more confident that our plan is sound and that it's execution will enable us to restore Kraft to reliable growth. I say that for three reasons. First, our early investments have produced sequential top line improvement. We had solid revenue growth in all major geographies. Second, while our market share and profit margins are clearly not yet where we want them to be, we are increasingly confident that the actions we're taking will lay the foundation for improved results. Third, we're taking other significant actions to further enhance shareholder returns. Let me provide more details starting with the positive impact on our results from our early investments. In North America, we delivered sequential revenue improvement from quarter 1 to quarter 2. That performance was driven by some focused, differentiated new products and incremental marketing investments in powdered soft drinks, pizza, and Oscar Meyer. In January, we launched Crystal Light with enhanced benefits like immunity, energy, and hydration. These helped to drive trademark sales up 47% in the quarter. We introduced DiGiorno Ultimate Pizza to you in February. It's now the hottest thing in frozen pizza representing one-third of all new product sales in the category through June, driving DiGiorno's revenue growth of 12%, and that's even before our national advertising began last week. We have increased confidence that our new Oscar Meyer Deli Creations sandwiches have the potential to be $100 million platform and highly incremental to our base business. These sandwiches are a great example of our ability to leverage the power of our broad portfolio to better compete with foodservice offerings. In the EU, reinvestment in our core coffee and chocolate brands has resulted in stepped up organic revenue growth; and in developing markets, our new products, supported by a significant increase in marketing, delivered double-digit growth. Net, we feel good about both our sequential growth from the first to second quarter and our 3.9% organic revenue growth for the first half of the year. We'll also continue to improve our sales execution and in-store presence. We're seeing higher revenue growth in the rollout markets for our wall-to-wall sales initiative in North America. In Q3, wall-to-wall will be in stores that accounts for about 35% of Kraft's all-commodity volume. We have, however, slowed the pace of expansion as we refine our sales rep training for maximum effectiveness and we expect to complete our rollout by mid-2008. Despite this early progress on a number of fronts, we have not made progress on market share. Through the second quarter, we're gaining market share in less than half of our U.S. businesses. The investments we are making in the back half will fuel both our top line momentum and improve our share. We now see a much more robust pipeline of new ideas across the company; new products, new packages, and new advertising campaigns, which make us confident to invest at the high end of the $300 million to $400 million range. Importantly, about half of our investment dollars will go to fix key laggards, including our mainstream coffee business in the U.S, North American cheese, and snacks. In coffee, our mainstream brands continue to lose share. Later this quarter, we launch a new higher quality Maxwell House with 100% Arabica beans in a new, consumer-preferred package. In cheese, we are not yet comfortable that we've added enough value to our portfolio to manage through record dairy prices. We have a number of key initiatives in the back half to improve share. These include Live Active probiotic cheeses, premium Kraft Singles Select, and a new advertising campaign for base Kraft Singles. In snacks, our growth lags that of the broader snacking world. In the back half, we will launch a robust new product pipeline, invest in higher marketing spending, and roll out a new Planters campaign to step up our performance. The balance of our spending will go to accelerate new product and marketing activities in high impact categories like convenient meals, where we'll continue to build on the strong first half momentum. This higher investment, coupled with the fact that approximately three-quarters of our incremental spending will occur in the back half of the year, gives us confidence that our share trends will improve especially in the fourth quarter. Consequently, we are raising our organic revenue guidance to 4% plus for the full year. Let me now turn to our margin performance. As you know, we had expected margins to decline this year given our growth investments, but higher than expected input costs will place even greater pressure on our margins in the back half of the year. That said, we are at the start of a three-year plan. 2007 is a building year, one which will lay a strong foundation for our future growth. We are committed to investing now because it is essential to driving the accelerated volume growth and stronger product mix that will leverage our overhead costs and improve margin s over time. While making these investments in the business, we are taking other significant actions to enhance shareholder returns. Last month, we announced our plans to acquire Danone's global biscuit business. This is a major strategic action that will give us a platform for greater scale, faster growth and better margins in our international business. On Monday, Danone reported strong first half biscuit growth, further evidence this acquisition will be an important contributor to our growth strategy. We are not finished reshaping our portfolio. We continue to evaluate our existing brands in the context of our new framework and we'll divest those businesses that don't fit our long-term growth plan. We will of course share those decisions with you at the appropriate time. We're also making better use of our balance sheet capacity. Not only through acquisitions, but by executing the $5 billion share repurchase program we announced in February. In fact, during the second quarter we repurchased almost 4% of our outstanding shares for $2 billion. In sum, I'm encouraged by the early progress in our transformation plan. We're doing what we said we would do and we are seeing signs that our investments and efforts will pay off. Of course, there's much more to do, but I remain confident that we're on the right track and I look for accelerated momentum in the back half of 2007. Now I'll turn the call over to Jim. Jim Dollive: Thanks, Irene and hello, everyone. Before I begin, please keep in mind that unless otherwise noted, my comments will exclude the items affecting comparability that were highlighted in our press release. Now let's get into the numbers, starting with sales. Our organic net revenues were up a solid 4.1% in the quarter. We delivered gains from product mix across most businesses, the result of several new product initiatives and reinvesting in marketing to support our base business. We've begun to see the effects of recent price increases in several categories with net pricing up 1.7 percentage points in the quarter. Volume was down in the second quarter. We had solid gains internationally and in some North American businesses, but these gains were offset by ready-to-drink bottled beverage weakness, further portfolio pruning in foodservice, and our North American grocery business reflecting both a shift in Easter timing to Q1 versus Q2 last year and continued share challenges in salad dressings. Turning to profit and earnings, I want to emphasize three points: First, our gross margin was down 130 basis points because higher input costs and our investments in product quality more than offset our gains from pricing and productivity. As Irene mentioned, we anticipate this will be the case for the balance of the year and therefore we expect lower gross margins in the second half of 2007. Second, our operating income margin declined 210 basis points year over year. This includes the gross margin impact as well as increased overhead costs and the higher margins of previously divested operations. Our overhead costs were higher due to our planned incremental investments in marketing, systems capabilities and distribution infrastructure as well as the absence of last year’s $18 million gain on the sale of the facility. Third, below the line, we benefited by roughly $0.02 from our share repurchase activity and by $0.01 from a decrease in our effective tax rate versus 2006. In the quarter our effective tax rate was 32.5% including the positive resolution of some outstanding tax items as well as a change in our mix of earnings by country. As a result for the year, our guidance for taxes is now 33.5 % versus our earlier forecast of 35.5%. On the share repurchase front as Irene mentioned, during the quarter, we repurchased 3.7% of our outstanding shares for $2 billion and we intend to continue repurchasing our stock under our current $5 billion repurchase authorization. I'll take a few minutes now to share some highlights of our business segments. As Irene said, we're beginning to see improved results where we have made incremental marketing investments in our base business and in new products that are helping to reframe our categories. At the same time, significant challenges remain in select businesses. We will begin to address these with a number of our second-half growth initiatives. I'll start with North American Beverages where our focus on health and wellness and premium offerings is paying off. Organic net revenues grew 4.3% this quarter. This increase was driven by our Crystal Light powdered beverage sticks and Capri Sun ready-to-drink pouches with antioxidants and functional benefits. Strong growth in Starbucks Premium Coffee and the successful restaging of Tassimo with marketing targeted at a narrower user base of coffee aficionados. At the profit line, operating income margin increased 130 basis points, the first time margin has been up in beverages in five quarters as the benefits of product mix and pricing more than offset higher grain coffee and packaging costs. Going forward, we will make further improvements in beverage s by investing in Maxwell House product quality and packaging as Irene discussed earlier. We expect these actions will begin to halt the longstanding trend of market share declines in the coffee category. In North American cheese and foodservice, organic net revenues were up 3.3% due mainly to price increases to offset higher dairy costs. 2007 is shaping up to be the year with the highest dairy commodity costs ever. Because of this run up, we recently increased our list prices in cheese for a second time this year, generally between 5% and 12% effective July 9. We expect that cheese will remain a tough competitive environment. Our share of total cheese is down year-to-date. However, despite higher costs in the back half of the year, we will fund the necessary investments to improve our share position and plant the seeds for future growth. Our plans include a number of new products and significant increases in advertising and consumer and promotional spending across the line. Operating income margins in cheese and foodservice were down 370 basis points in Q2. We expect them to be down in the balance of 2007 as well. The factors driving both Q2 results and the balance of 2007 are higher input costs and the normal impact of price elasticity on volume and funding for our growth initiatives. Moving on to North American convenient meals, organic net revenues were up more than 5% driven by successful new product platforms and investments in marketing and quality that are capturing quick meal eating occasions. Irene has already told you about the success of DiGiorno Ultimate and Oscar Meyer Deli Creations. I'd also add that our deli shaved meat platform grew 37% in the quarter and now exceeds $300 million on an annual basis, and California Pizza Kitchen grew over 20% in the quarter. Operating income margins fell in the quarter negatively impacted by two factors: Higher input costs including investments in quality and new capacity, and higher overhead costs driven by incremental marketing investments. Going forward, we expect convenient meals to continue with strong revenue growth in the back half of 2007, and margin performance should progressively improve over the course of the year as launch costs moderate. On to North American grocery, where organic net revenues were down 1.8% due to lower volumes, over half of which reflects the shift in Easter timing. As for the overall business, we continue to see strong momentum behind new, better for you products such as sugar-free Jell-O ready-to-eat Pudding Poppers, however these gains were offset by ongoing weakness in pourable and spoonable salad dressing. We'll have new product news and incremental marketing later this year as we contemporize our salad dressing business, but these businesses have been losing share for many years and it will take some time to fix them. Looking at North American snacks and cereals, organic net revenues were up 3.7% with contributions from volume, mix and pricing. Three highlights here drove growth in the quarter. First strong product mix in cookies driven by gains in 100 calorie packs. Second, volume gains in ready-to-eat cereal from a rebound in kids cereals driven by new products and renewed marketing support on our Sensible Solution offerings. Third, strong growth in bars behind the launch of Nabisco 100 calorie bars. Operating income margins fell 60 basis points due to our Milk Bone and Cream of Wheat divestitures. Excluding the effects of divestitures, the benefits of product mix and manufacturing productivity were partially offset by higher overhead costs driven by incremental advertising and consumer spending. For the remainder of the year, we expect our strong new product line-up across the snacks business will result in stepped up organic revenue growth. Now, I'll turn to our international business which had another good quarter across the board. The EU continued its return to moderate growth, increasing organic net revenues by 2% driven by volume and mix gains in coffee and chocolate. Several factors contributed to the coffee and thus the EU success. We saw gains across the EU in Tassimo due to our successful restaging with new marketing programs and new product launches including Latte Macchiato. We executed successful promotions for Jacobs in Germany and for Kenco in the United Kingdom and we increased A&C, launching a new campaign for Carte Noir in France. Chocolate revenue also continues to be up as we introduced new products and reinvested A& C behind premium end offerings under the Cote D’or, Toblerone and Milka brand names. This soon to be our third core EU growth category contributed 7.4 percentage points to reported net revenue growth. The United biscuits businesses are performing ahead of our expectations driven by global biscuit brands including Oreo. EU operating income margins declined 100 basis points. Here, the benefits of improved product mix were more than offset by higher promotional and advertising spending. Also, last year included the $18 million one-time gain on the sale of a facility I mentioned earlier. Looking ahead we'll continue to invest to improve our coffee and chocolate businesses, and we're excited about the opportunities to accelerate the growth in our EU snacks business once we finalize the acquisitions of the Danone biscuit business. Finally, developing markets delivered another consecutive quarter of solid growth with organic net revenues up double digits. This was due to strong gains in Eastern Europe, Middle East and Africa and Latin America including gains in Russia behind both Jacobs coffee and Alpine Gold chocolate and in Brazil, Argentina and Venezuela from new products and increased marketing support. At the operating income line, margin was essentially flat. The benefits of higher pricing and improved product mix were offset by higher input costs and higher overhead driven by investments in marketing. Going forward, we expect continued strong performance from developing markets as we invest in marketing support and expand distribution. Finally, a comment on our restructuring program. In short, savings are coming in faster than we expected. Cumulative savings are up to $660 million. We now expect cumulative savings to reach $725 million by year end, up from our earlier expectation of $700 million. On the cost front, we spent $245 million year-to-date. Due to the timing of activities, we now expect total cost of $575 million for the year, down from our earlier expectation of $625 million. Irene Rosenfeld: Thanks, Jim. In sum, during our first few months of independence we made good progress in our plans to transform Kraft. Results from our early investments are promising. We had strong revenue growth in all major geographies for the first time in a long while. We have a stronger pipeline of competitively advantaged products that will be launched over the balance of this year and into 2008. We are pricing to recover the majority of input costs. We are delivering faster savings under our restructuring program and we are looking at additional opportunities to reduce administrative overhead. We are making the necessary investments for long-term growth and have maintained our full year $1.75 to $1.80 EPS guidance. We would now be happy to take your questions.