Michael Drazin
Analyst · Leerink Partners
Thank you, Jim, and good morning, everyone. Before walking through the results, I want to thank our employees, particularly the Tracy teams, distribution team members across the network and everyone who supported our California customers for their extraordinary effort and commitment this quarter. As I discuss our performance, I'd highlight that our results include several notable items this quarter, including IEEPA tariff refunds and impacts related to the Tracy fire. Looking through these items, underlying performance was strong. Second quarter net sales increased 12% year-over-year to $7.7 billion, driven primarily by organic growth, minimal foreign currency impact. The customer repayments tied to IEEPA tariff refunds reduced growth by approximately 1 percentage point. For the first half, net sales were $15 billion, up 11% year-over-year. The Medline Brand segment delivered second quarter net sales of $3.5 billion, up 7%. The customer repayments tied to IEEPA tariff refunds reduced growth by approximately 3 percentage points. For the first half, net sales were $7 billion, up 6% year-over-year. Turning to Medline Brand sales by product category. Surgical solutions generated second quarter net sales of $1.6 billion, up 9%. The customer repayments tied to IEEPA tariff refunds reduced growth by approximately 3 percentage points. The strong growth was due to continued strength in surgical kitting, one of our largest product divisions, and the operating room. We continue to gain share by delivering differentiated solutions, onboarding new kitting programs and helping customers improve efficiency in existing programs. These kits provide deeper insights into facility needs in the operating room and create a forum to discuss product conversions, providing opportunity to drive additional Medline Brand growth. First half net sales were $3.2 billion, up 8%. Front line care net sales were $1.7 billion in the second quarter, up 4%. The customer repayments associated with IEEPA tariff refunds reduced growth by approximately 3 percentage points. Strong demand across multiple product divisions, especially in exam gloves and personal care, was partially offset by unplanned retail channel softness. Unlike our prime vendor business, which is based on long-term contracts, retail is a shorter demand cycle business that sells products directly to consumers through major retailers. While retail represents less than 2% of our overall sales, it is almost entirely Medline Brand, creating a disproportionate headwind to growth and profitability. To better support this channel and improve competitiveness, we have realigned our sales organization around retail customers and their specific needs. For the first half of 2026, front line care net sales were $3.3 billion, up 5%. Lab and diagnostics generated second quarter net sales of $248 million, up 12%, driven by new customer implementations and existing customer demand. Many of our new prime vendor agreements are multichannel, including lab, driving strong core acute care lab growth. First half net sales were $541 million, up 6%. The Supply Chain Solutions segment delivered second quarter net sales of $4.1 billion, up 16%, supported by new customer implementations and growth with existing customers. First half net sales were $8 billion, up 16%, expanding the opportunity for Medline Brand conversion. Moving to sales by channel. U.S. acute care net sales grew 15% year-over-year to $5.4 billion, driven by new prime vendor customers and existing customer growth. The customer repayments tied to IEEPA tariff refunds reduced growth by approximately 1 percentage point. For the first half, acute care net sales were $10.5 billion, up 13% year-over-year. U.S. non-acute care net sales grew 4% year-over-year to $1.7 billion. The customer repayments tied to IEEPA tariff refunds reduced growth by approximately 2 percentage points. Growth was primarily driven by existing customers and new customer signings in physician office and post-acute channels, including skilled nursing, long-term care and home health, partially offset by retail softness. For the first half, non-acute net sales were $3.5 billion, up 5% year-over-year. International net sales grew 9% to $533 million in the second quarter and 10% to $1 billion in the first half, driven by volume growth in Canada and Europe. Turning to adjusted EBITDA. Second quarter results were $1.1 billion, up 13% year-over-year. This includes $243 million of net IEEPA tariff refund benefits. Without giving effect of these benefits, higher net sales volumes were partially offset by increased operating costs, including head count to support sales growth and higher cost of goods sold, including the impact of tariff costs. Adjusted EBITDA margin increased 20 basis points to 13.8%. Expenses from the Tracy distribution center fire are excluded from adjusted EBITDA, but reduced net income by $336 million, primarily reflecting inventory and fixed asset losses and other related costs. We believe we have sufficient insurance coverage and expect future recoveries related to property, inventory and general liability. Moving to free cash flow and the balance sheet. We generated strong free cash flow of $920 million in the first 6 months of the year, as in the past, working capital was a usage. This reflected the IEEPA tariff refund receivable and higher trade accounts receivable from sales growth. CapEx for the first 6 months was $207 million, reflecting investments in distribution center enhancements and automation as well as capacity expansion of our Mexico kitting facility. Cash and cash equivalents were $2.3 billion and short-term investments were $350 million, reducing net leverage to 2.9x. We are pleased to have reached our long-term leverage goal of less than 3x, providing flexibility as we continue investing in growth. Let me now transition to our updated 2026 guidance. Given strong demand, continued commercial execution and broad-based momentum, we are raising our full year organic sales guidance for the second time this year to 9% to 10% from our previous range of 8.5% to 9.5%. This guidance includes the $89 million of IEEPA tariff refunds we plan to provide to our customers. The higher outlook reinforces our confidence in our business model, resilient health care demand and our ability to continue gaining share. At the same time, we are lowering our full year adjusted EBITDA outlook to $3.3 billion to $3.4 billion from $3.5 billion to $3.6 billion. The revised outlook does not reflect IEEPA tariff refund received or expected but includes several other internal and external factors. Externally, we are seeing slightly higher-than-expected inflationary pressure related to the Middle East conflict as discussed on our Q1 earnings call as well as costs related to Tracy fire. Internally, the outlook reflects increased operational investments to support customer demand, the quality investments Jim discussed earlier and softness in our retail channel. In total, we estimate that roughly half of the incremental earnings impact from these factors is transitory, roughly half is more permanent and will become part of our future cost base. I'll walk through this component shortly, but first, let me update you on our tariff cost assumptions. As discussed on our last earnings call, the lower tariff rate from Section 122 tariffs in February through July of this year created favorability versus our prior guidance. Section 122 tariffs have now been replaced by Section 301 forced-labor tariffs. Based on this, we now estimate full year 2026 net tariff impacts of approximately $350 million, down $140 million from the $490 million we provided during our fourth quarter earnings call last February. Given our significant inventory on hand, any tariff rate changes from this point forward are expected to have an immaterial impact on our financial results in 2026 and to primarily affect 2027. Now moving to the drivers of the adjusted EBITDA guidance change. Starting with the Middle East conflict, consistent with our discussion during our Q1 earnings call, most of the inflationary pressures, including fuel and product costs are offset by the tariff benefit I just mentioned. Consistent with our long-standing practice of supporting long-term customer relationships, we have chosen to absorb these costs at this time rather than broadly pass them on to our customers, an approach that has served both Medline and our customers well over time. As I mentioned earlier, our first half results include $336 million of costs related to the Tracy fire. These costs are excluded from our adjusted EBITDA and therefore, not included in our guidance. In the second half of 2026, we currently expect to incur an additional $50 million to $100 million of Tracy-related costs. A portion of these costs such as cleanup costs, product rerouting and airfreight will be excluded from adjusted EBITDA. Other costs, including lease expenses and labor inefficiencies as we operate without automation will remain in our base. Consistent with our Q1 earnings call, some operational costs are expected to be offset by tariff benefits. However, since last quarter, these costs have increased as we invest in staffing, technology and scaling efforts to meet faster-than-anticipated demand growth. While these investments are creating near-term inefficiencies, they position Medline to become more efficient over time as our team ramps and new technology is optimized. As Jim mentioned in his opening remarks, we discussed our global quality action plan with the FDA. We have identified and quantified expected remediation costs, which include enhancements in our quality organization and investments in our manufacturing network. In addition, a portion of the impact relates to products that were taken off the market due to recalls and/or FDA inspection findings. Based on our latest assessment, some of those products, including our CHG wipes, manufactured at our Waukegan facility are taking slightly longer than originally expected to complete the necessary work to bring back online, which results in earnings loss. The final component is related to the unplanned retail channel softness we discussed earlier. This is impacting front line care and U.S. non-acute sales and margins. While we are taking steps to improve retail, we expect it to remain a headwind through the balance of the year. To help frame the impact of this overall reduction in adjusted EBITDA guidance, the external factors, including the Middle East and the Tracy fire account for approximately 25%, with the internal factors, including operational investment, quality remediation efforts and softness in retail remaining 75%. We will provide our 2027 outlook during our Q4 and full year 2026 call in the first quarter of 2027. However, the fundamental drivers of earnings growth remain the same and include sales volume growth, Medline Brand conversion, approximately $5 billion of conversion opportunity, leveraging our scale to drive savings in sourcing, manufacturing and distribution and operational efficiency initiatives. We continue to monitor the impact of our business from both the Middle East conflict and tariff rates, and we'll execute on the playbook we have discussed previously to mitigate the impact to our customers and to Medline. Finally, we remain focused on disciplined execution of enterprise-wide productivity and cost savings initiatives designed to offset incremental cost pressures that will enable us to mitigate the additional costs we are incurring to achieve our long-term objective of delivering sustainable and strong earnings growth at or greater than sales growth over time. If you look at quarterly cadence for the remainder of the year, the third quarter of 2026 has 63 days, 1 fewer than Q2, while the fourth quarter 2026 has 66 days, 1 more than Q4 2025. As a result, we expect sequential sales to be relatively flat in Q3 before increasing in Q4 due to the seasonality and days. Adjusted EBITDA is expected to increase sequentially each quarter with the strongest contribution in Q4. With respect to the $200 million of incremental costs, we expect approximately 1/3 to be incurred in Q3 and the remaining 2/3 in Q4. Turning to the rest of our outlook assumptions. All of the ranges remain consistent with our prior outlook, with the exception of tax distributions, which we have narrowed to $250 million to $300 million, the bottom end of the guidance range, reflecting sponsor sale activities in the first half of the year. And CapEx, which we updated to a range of $500 million to $600 million to account for the Tracy fire. While we anticipate receiving insurance coverage from the incremental $100 million in capital, the timing of recovery is uncertain. In summary, we delivered strong top line performance with double-digit sales growth in both the second quarter and first half, demonstrating broad-based momentum across the business and continued commercial execution. Our organic growth-driven strategy continues to deliver results and create significant opportunity ahead. This performance supports our decision to raise full year organic sales guidance for the second time this year. In spite of the near-term pressures we are managing, we remain confident in the underlying long-term earnings power of the business. While we are absorbing higher costs in certain areas that create near-term margin pressure, they support the priorities that matter most to our customers: reliability, quality, service and scale. We believe these investments strengthen Medline's competitive position and support long-term value creation. I'll now turn it back to Jim for closing remarks.