Earnings Labs

Madrigal Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (MDGL)

Q3 2025 Earnings Call· Tue, Nov 4, 2025

$519.54

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good morning, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Madrigal Pharmaceuticals Third Quarter 2025 Earnings Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] As a reminder, today's conference call is being recorded. I'd now like to introduce Ms. Tina Ventura, Chief Investor Relations Officer. Please go ahead.

Tina Ventura

Analyst

Thanks, Marvin. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us to discuss Madrigal's third quarter 2025 earnings. We issued a press release this morning and posted a slide deck that accompanies this webcast on the Investor Relations section of our website. On the call with me today is Bill Sibold, Chief Executive Officer; Dave Soergel, Chief Medical Officer; and Mardi Dier, Chief Financial Officer. They will provide prepared remarks, and then we'll take your questions. Please note on Slide 2, we will be making certain forward-looking statements today. We refer you to our SEC filings for a discussion of the risks that may cause actual results to differ from the forward-looking statements. With that, I will now turn the call over to Bill.

William Sibold

Analyst

Thanks, Tina. Good morning, and thanks for joining us. We have delivered another excellent quarter as we continue to execute on our strategic priorities. We're maximizing the value of Rezdiffra and building our pipeline, which sets us up for continued value creation. Rezdiffra is quickly becoming one of the most successful specialty launches in the industry with sales now annualizing at greater than $1 billion in only its sixth quarter of launch. More than 29,500 patients are being treated with Rezdiffra and more than 10,000 healthcare providers have prescribed it. We've made great progress on our 2026 payer contracting strategy for first-line access. Our new U.S. Rezdiffra patent was listed in the orange book. It extends Rezdiffra's value into 2045. And we're expanding globally with our launch in Germany following European approval. On the pipeline front, we're advancing our Phase III MAESTRO-NASH outcomes trial in F4c, where we could once again be first to market this time for compensated MASH cirrhosis. We look forward to sharing more from our F4c open-label cohort at AASLD later this week. We're executing on our Rezdiffra combination strategy, where we completed the transaction of our new oral GLP-1, and we continue to evaluate opportunities to add additional assets to our pipeline through business development. So today, we'll focus on our 2 key priorities, our top line and our pipeline. Starting with Rezdiffra's third quarter performance on Slide 4, we delivered net sales of $287 million, up 35% quarter-over-quarter. The significant demand we're generating is driven by the positive response to Rezdiffra from prescribers and patients and the strong execution by our team. As shown on Slide 5, we ended the third quarter with more than 29,500 patients on Rezdiffra, up from more than 23,000 patients at the end of the second quarter. This number…

David Soergel

Analyst

Thanks, Bill. It's an incredibly exciting time to be at Madrigal. Over the past 6 months, I've had the opportunity to work closely with this exceptional team. And the more I dug into our programs, the more energized I've become about what we're building. We're not just advancing a pipeline, we're laying the foundation to transform how MASH is treated. As shown on Slide 12, we already have a robust clinical program for Rezdiffra. Our Phase III MAESTRO-NASH outcomes trial in compensated NASH cirrhosis or F4c, is expected to read out in 2027. Positive results could make Rezdiffra the first approved therapy for F4c and support full approval in F2/F3. Our ongoing Phase III MAESTRO-NASH trial in F2/F3 MASH is expected to read out in 2028 and would also support full FDA approval. Beyond Rezdiffra, we're building a pipeline through our business development efforts. To date, we've added an oral GLP-1 now called MGL-2086, which we intend to develop in combination with resmetirom to deliver a best-in-disease, well-tolerated oral combination. As we think about how to build our pipeline further, we're looking for mechanisms that fit scientifically, strategically and commercially, those with complementary biology and combination potential. Continued success in treating patients will come from combining mechanisms and tailoring treatment regimens to specific risk factors, much like what we've seen in other chronic complex diseases. With Rezdiffra's patent protection into 2045, we can be thoughtful and disciplined and build the right kind of pipeline that will define the future of MASH care. The combination of our oral GLP-1 and THR beta agonist is a great example of this approach to building the pipeline. For MAESTRO-NASH, we know that even a modest amount of weight loss enhances resmetirom's efficacy. So unlike incretin monotherapies that strive for double-digit weight loss, we've seen…

Mardi Dier

Analyst

Yes. Thank you, Dave. Turning to Slide 16 and a summary of our financials. Third quarter 2025 net sales totaled $287.3 million, up 35% from the second quarter of 2025. This was another strong demand quarter. As Bill mentioned, we're making great progress with our contracting discussions for continued broad first-line access to Rezdiffra in 2026, with no step-through requirements and improved utilization management criteria. As a reminder, there are several components to gross to net, including commercial rebates, government rebates, co-pay assistance costs and channel distribution costs. Across the board, the team has done an exceptional job managing these dynamics, and we're seeing minimal impact through the third quarter of this year. As certain contracts take effect in the fourth quarter, we anticipate a step-up in the gross to net impact to the midpoint of our 20% to 30% range, resulting in a full year average near the low end of that range, a great outcome for 2025. Looking ahead to 2026, we expect the full effect of our payer agreements to begin January 1, bringing our total gross to net impact into the high 30% range, consistent with specialty medicine analogs. As noted, we are confident that we will continue to steadily add Rezdiffra patients, and we expect robust net sales growth for Rezdiffra in 2026 and beyond. R&D expenses for the third quarter of 2025 were $174 million compared to $68.7 million in the third quarter of 2024. The increase was primarily due to the one-time $117 million expense associated with the global licensing agreement for MGL-2086. This was expensed in the third quarter and will impact fourth quarter cash flows. SG&A expenses for the third quarter of 2025 were $209.1 million compared to $107.6 million in the third quarter of 2024. The increase primarily reflects the…

Tina Ventura

Analyst

Thanks, Mardi. Let's move into the Q&A portion of the call. Marvin, please go ahead and provide instructions for the Q&A session.

Operator

Operator

Our first question comes from the line of Yasmeen Rahimi of Piper Sandler.

Yasmeen Rahimi

Analyst

Congrats to a great quarter. Team, with AASLD right around the corner, would love to learn sort of how this 2-year data, especially the NIT-driven responses could further derisk MAESTRO-NASH outcome, which is reading out in 2028? And also maybe also some color on what visibility do you guys get in terms of that it's on track based on event rates to come in at that time point? And I'll jump back in the queue.

William Sibold

Analyst

Yes. Thanks for the call. And look, we're really, really excited about AASLD. I'll tell you, we're just coming off of the ACG meeting in Phoenix. I guess it was just last week. And what a difference a year makes when you think about the progress that we've made with the gastroenterologists. I mean a year ago, people didn't know about NITs. They were still putting their pathways in place. And now we're seeing that Rezdiffra has really moved to being the foundational therapy standard of care with that audience and a lot of positive feedback. So, we're headed into the Super Bowl this week with AASLD. We're really excited about it. We have a lot going on. But maybe, Dave, do you want to provide a little bit of context around some of the data and so forth?

David Soergel

Analyst

Yes. I think your question, yes, had to do with the data that we're reading out at AASLD and how it reflects on MAESTRO outcomes. Is that correct?

Yasmeen Rahimi

Analyst

That's correct.

David Soergel

Analyst

Okay. Great. Yes. So, as we presented at EASL and as we showed in the presentation, we have an open-label cohort of individuals from the MAESTRO NAFLD study where we've been able to show sustained efficacy of Rezdiffra in this cohort, both on liver stiffness and on a variety of biomarkers, including LFTs and so forth. So, at AASLD, we're looking more deeply into this cohort and examining some of the more severe patients within this cohort and understanding whether Rezdiffra's efficacy in this group as well. And what we see is really exciting and gives us a lot of confidence about, about MAESTRO outcomes. And so the reason why this is important is because when you think about MAESTRO outcomes and you think about this open-label cohort, the patient populations are really very similar. So, the baseline characteristics are similar. And so when we see efficacy in the open-label group, it gives us evidence and a lot of confidence that the outcomes trial will end up being positive as well.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Jay Olson of Oppenheimer.

Jay Olson

Analyst

Congrats on the quarter. Can you talk about the pros and cons of combining resmetirom with MGL-2086 versus some other oral GLP-1 like orforglipron? And then any other potential mechanisms beyond GLP-1 that might be synergistic with resmetirom?

William Sibold

Analyst

Jay, thanks for the question. Just for clarification as well, our oral GLP-1 is an orforglipron derivative. So, we were very, very specific in the criteria that we had for selecting a oral GLP-1, and we wanted to be in an orforglipron derivative. But maybe, Dave, do you want to talk a little bit about it and a little bit about the future mechanisms and just how we're thinking in general about potential combinations?

David Soergel

Analyst

Yes. So, I mean first, the GLP-1 mechanism and why one would combine resmetirom with the GLP-1. So, what we know from MAESTRO-NASH from the 52-week experience in MAESTRO-NASH is just a little bit of weight loss enhances resmetirom's efficacy. So, we see better antifibrotic effects with resmetirom in people who lose as little as 5% of their body weight. So, it's a natural sort of extension of that to consider combining with the GLP-1 that can produce a bit of weight loss, have some metabolic benefits and enhance resmetirom's efficacy in a fixed-dose combination. So that's the rationale for combining with the GLP-1. But your point is a great one. There are other mechanisms that may also be attractive to combine resmetirom with. And there are multiple pathways in this very complex disease of MASH that lead to hepatic steatosis, fibrosis and ultimately poor outcomes in patients. So, as we've said before, we're looking at pretty much every mechanism of action to potentially combine with resmetirom where there's a good scientific rationale for it and where we believe that the combined efficacy is going to be an advantage to patients. So, we're casting the net wide, and we're looking for the best opportunities.

William Sibold

Analyst

Yes, Jay, and just also a little context as well here. With the IP to 2045, that gives us time to really thoughtfully think about building this pipeline. We're not in a rush just to try to fix a problem of a pending patent cliff. We can thoughtfully think about building a franchise that's durable because starting with the 2045 IP for Rezdiffra. Thanks for the question.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Michael DiFiore of Evercore ISI.

Michael DiFiore

Analyst

Congrats on the continued progress. Just 2 quick one for me. In light of the recent M&A in the space, I would love to get your thoughts on Madrigal's future competitive positioning and market access once large pharma inevitably bundles their MASH assets, if approved. And the second question I have is just any thoughts on Sagimet's plans for testing denifanstat with Rezdiffra. I realize your priority is focusing on the combination therapy with your own GLP-1, but would Madrigal be open in principle to combinations such as this? Or is this just too early at this stage?

William Sibold

Analyst

Yes, Mike, thanks for the question. Let me start with that one. We don't know what Sagimet is doing. We haven't spoken with them, don't know any of the plans. So, is it a combination that makes sense? Maybe, but we're not involved in that and don't really know. So that's all I'll comment at the moment there. Look, the recent M&A really for us is a validation of the MASH market. Ultimately, what we see happening in these markets, and we talked about IBD, RA and psoriasis. You would have -- and we're a little bit like that where you have a company shows that there is a market and an attractive opportunity. And then the investment in innovation, science and ultimately more products really accelerates. And that's what we think is going to happen in MASH. We're leading the way in this case. Now the recent moves of the big pharma to get an FGF21, we think validates that. And we're excited about it because that means there's going to be more attention on the space, which ultimately leads to greater diagnosis, treatment. And with the profile that we have with Rezdiffra, we think it ultimately favors us. So we -- in creating our market access strategy, we've taken a very long-term approach, just like we did from day 1 when we announced approval of the product, you almost have to start with 2045 where Rezdiffra's IP goes out to, that we're going to have F4c, that we're going to have a pipeline and there's going to be other products that enter. So, everything has been thoughtfully designed with that end in mind to preserve the most value for not only Rezdiffra, but for our franchise of the future. So, we feel we're in a really strong place. Now Dave just talked a little bit about F4c. We're really excited about the data that we've seen, and we're very confident about hitting in our MAESTRO-NASH outcome study, which we are reading out in 2027. Of course, we've got to read out. It's an event-driven study, and we'll anticipate those results. We think that from a competitive perspective, our data is going to be the leading data in that space with that population so that we will be the leaders not only in F2/F3, but from F2 to F4c. So all of this is thought out. We're thinking of things in the long term. We think of that how we build a pipeline, how we evolve gross to net and how we interact with the community. Let me just be crystal clear. Our goal is to not be leaders in the short term, but to have long-term leadership in MASH.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Akash Tewari of Jefferies.

Akash Tewari

Analyst

So, we're hearing feedback that Rezdiffra's adherence rate is meaningfully higher than the kind of 40% to 60% your team cited for drugs in this category, more in the order of 80% plus. Can you confirm that? And then also, how should we think about Rezdiffra net pricing? I know you've talked about -- we've heard GLP-1 players talk about mid-single-digit net price declines annually. Is that a similar dynamic for Rezdiffra? Or should we see stable net pricing after you get into like the high 30s range on gross to net next year?

William Sibold

Analyst

Thanks for the question, Akash. Look, first of all, on the adherence, I think what we've said about -- at the 1-year rate, well-tolerated orals are in that 60% to 70% range. So that doesn't -- that hasn't changed our view. And we are -- the data that we have today, remember, there's still only so many patients that are getting to that 1-year mark that we are similar to well-tolerated orals. And like you, we've heard very positive feedback from a lot of clinicians that are treating patients and seeing very strong adherence. And I think that again goes back to the profile of the product. So, all encouraging and as we would expect. To the question of gross to net and what we would expect to see. Look, I think that you looking ahead to the future, gross to net only goes in one direction, right? And the difference after '26, you don't have this 0 to contracting effect. After '26, we'll have contracting right now, we're going to be bidding on 2027 Medicare. We have some Medicare in place for '26. So, you expect to see some future decline in gross to net because that's just what happens. But again, we had this effect of 0 to contracting in -- as we enter 2026. So, look, we think that we are in a really great place. Our strategy is for broad first-line access, no step edit and improved utilization management criteria. That was the goal. That's what we're achieving. So, we're really, really excited about where we are entering 2026. In fact, I would say, in my experience, I really believe that this is as good as you could possibly be for a product of this stature at this point in launch. In fact, I would go as far as to say, I think this is the best market access from a criteria perspective and everything that I've seen with any of the launches that I've done.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Thomas Smith of Leerink Partners.

Thomas Smith

Analyst

And let me add my congrats on the really strong quarter. Another one on coverage. I appreciate the high-level comments here on the payer contracting efforts, I think everyone saw the recent Aetna formulary coverage decision. Could you just comment specifically on that and the potential impact of noncovered decisions? And then any comments on kind of where you are with respect to the contracting for commercial lives next year? Is there an explicit goal or expectation for what percent of commercial lives you think will continue to have that broad first-line access to Rezdiffra for 2026?

William Sibold

Analyst

Yes. Thanks, Tom. Maybe I'll start there. Look, we're expecting broad commercial live coverage. So, we feel really good about that at this point. As it relates to Aetna, let me start with Rezdiffra wasn't on formulary in 2025, and it's not again in 2026. So that is really no change. So, we don't expect to see a meaningful impact here. It will be available through prior authorization or medical exception. And so that's not a practical change in access for patients. And our Madrigal patient support team are really experts at helping patients navigate and helping practices navigate through that. So yes, no change, no effect.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Andrea Newkirk of Goldman Sachs.

Andrea Tan

Analyst

Bill, recognizing it's still early here, but just curious if you've observed any signs of Novo's marketing campaign broadening the pool of addressable patients to date. Do you still believe that 315,000 patients is the accurate number for Rezdiffra's target population? And then, Mardi, if I can just ask quickly, just in the context of the successful launch that you've seen to date, how are you thinking about the path to profitability from here?

William Sibold

Analyst

Thanks, Andrea. Well, look, this is the first quarter where we've had Novo in the market. And you saw that we continue to steadily add patients. And I think by all measures, had an absolutely outstanding quarter. So, 3 months in, we haven't really seen too much. We know that they seem to be educating PCPs and trying to drive diagnosis, which we think is ultimately great for patients in the market. We're starting to hear some practices say, and this is very anecdotal at this point that they are reporting more referrals that are coming in. But it's a little early to quantify if there is additional growth to the market as we get through the end of the year and be able to do a more proper analysis, we'll come back with any real growth rates. Now the 315,000, great question. Look, let's just remind people, the 315,000 are the diagnosed patients in the 14,000 prescribers that we're targeting. And we know that we have patients that are on Rezdiffra now that weren't part of that 315 that they were newly diagnosed. And we also know that the diagnosis rate at the moment remains quite low. Originally, we saw it as around 10% diagnosis rate. So, we know that there are more prevalent patients out there. And I think what we will see and what we're excited about is having somebody else that is going to help us carry the load of increasing diagnosis. It's not something that's been a focus of ours. It still remains not a focus of ours. But when we have somebody else who needs to have literally millions of patients that are diagnosed in order to serve their needs, that ultimately helps us. That's why we said in the script, it's also -- it's the 315,000 that we win from and the increased diagnosis and ultimately people that can't tolerate or have an effect with a new competitor that will ultimately come to us. So, a little early to quantify. We'll do so in later quarters, but we see some signs that we're starting to see additional growth. Novo, we just don't really have a lot of information, haven't seen them too much out there. But clearly, they are there and starting to drive a little bit more diagnosis.

Mardi Dier

Analyst

Great. Yes, go ahead. Yes. Thanks, Andrea, for the question on the path to profitability. And our focus right now and into 2026 is really focused on driving our top line and then building out our pipeline, which Dave described. That's going to be our focus going forward. It doesn't mean profitability won't happen at some point. But again, we're focused on the top line and building out R&D and continuing to support our efforts in building out the MASH -- our leadership in MASH.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Andy Chen of Wolfe Research.

Unknown Analyst

Analyst

It's Emma on for Andy. Rezdiffra uptake has been strong so far, and you mentioned the strong 60% to 70% adherence rate. I know it's still very early days in the launch, but I guess how do these dynamics inform your view of the drug's chronic use potential and just steady-state demand over the long term?

William Sibold

Analyst

Thanks, Emma. Look, I think that this is where we win. We have a profile once-a-day pill that is well tolerated and the feedback, some have reported extremely high adherence rates. So, we feel extremely well positioned for this to be a long-term chronic therapy. It's really one of the exciting parts of Rezdiffra. And as I said, versus other categories, which have become really multibillion over $20 billion categories, the profiles, especially the profiles initially of products to launch were kind of hairy, right? They just -- they weren't orals. They had tolerability issues, sometimes safety issues. We feel that we have got -- and you've heard me refer to it in the past as what I believe is kind of like a holy grail profile. That's something which is where we win in this category, frankly. At the end of the day, profiles matter. This is a product which is really designed for chronic use. So, we feel really good.

David Soergel

Analyst

Can I just add on one thing. The other part that also, of course, matters is sustained efficacy. And I think what we're showing at AASLD gives us a lot of confidence in the sustained efficacy of resmetirom in this group. And in fact, what we show in the F2/F3 population is that if you come off of therapy, you have reversion of your disease, which is, of course, a big challenge. So, I think those 2 facets, both the efficacy, sustained efficacy and the sustained tolerability are 2 big.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Ritu Baral of TD Cowen.

Ritu Baral

Analyst

I wanted to ask, well, 1.5 questions. One on this growth forward given the 2 strategies, Bill, that you outlined, one, sales force expansion and marketing to the endocrinologists. But at the same time, you mentioned that you want depth in the going-forward marketing strategy. So, can you help us reconcile the 2 and what sort of metrics and current targets for depth that you hope to report and how GLP-1s figure into all this? And this is a very quick e-mail that we've been getting from clients. We're having a problem sort of stretching the patient numbers with the revenue numbers. Are there any elements to either stocking or Europe or some other aspect of those numbers that need to be addressed in our models to reconcile everything reported this morning?

William Sibold

Analyst

Yes. For the quarter, nothing to do with inventory, nothing to do with Europe. I mean, just to be crystal clear, U.S. demand is the driver of the success for the quarter. So let me take that one. Next, let's talk about growth going forward and your question about how do we manage expansion, if you will, of into endocrinology and death otherwise. We can walk and chew gum at the same time, so to speak. We have to continue to be building for the future as well. Remember, we've got 20 years ahead of us from an IP perspective. So, we are going to look for where to currently focus and where do we want to explore. And that's exactly what we're doing here. We've already from -- and you know we've been always looking at a basket of products in the last 10 years that have been great specialty launches, and we look at each metric, and we're kind of at or near the top on a number of those. Breadth, we're doing great as well. But you need to continue to grow your depth of prescribing, right? I mean we have 10,000-plus prescribers. Now your next step, and I consider that like a checkmark, now you go deeper and deeper into that set of core physicians, which are gastroenterologists and hepatologists. Now the pursuit now of the endocrinologists, that we had endocrinologists targeted as part of the 14,000. But what we've seen is additional endocrinologists have come forward and said, "you know what, I'm still seeing a lot of MASH and would like to learn more about Rezdiffra. So, there was enough interest that we said, let's put a dedicated team on that opportunity. Just to give you a sense, it's not a huge number. It's a…

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Jon Wolleben with Citizens.

Jonathan Wolleben

Analyst · Citizens.

Bill, wondering if you could comment a little bit as we look down the road at expected GLP price erosion how that might affect access and payer decisions for Rezdiffra?

William Sibold

Analyst · Citizens.

Thanks, Jon. Well, look, I think if you -- I'll take you back to the comments that we made on the call that in January, we would expect to be in the high 30% range. That is in the presence of a rapidly, I would say, eroding gross to net of GLP-1s. So, we believe that we are well positioned for the future. As I said, gross to net only goes in one direction. But I think you have to start with the problem that we're trying to solve. This is an expensive disease. I think if you take a look at ICER recently commented again on products that they have recently reviewed. And we're seeing that once again, Rezdiffra is highlighted as a product that is looked at as cost effective and really is offsetting the very costly disease without intervention. So, I think that you have to start with the problem you're trying to solve. This is an expensive disease. I think payers understand that. Certainly, the system is starting to understand that. So, you're always going to have products that have different prices within the category. And we've seen even with the categories that I mentioned today, IBD, RA and psoriasis, there's huge variability. But there's a need for more than one medication. There's a need for multiple mechanisms, and you ultimately have to try to solve the problem in front. And we, through an independent third party, ICER, have proven twice now about the cost effectiveness of Rezdiffra.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Prakhar Agrawal of Cantor Fitzgerald.

Prakhar Agrawal

Analyst

And congrats on another strong quarter. So, appreciate the clarity on the gross to net for 4Q and 2026. But maybe if you can talk about your expectations for 4Q growth and comfort around 2026 consensus estimates with this set? And maybe second question, what percentage of Rezdiffra volume currently is Medicare? And how are you thinking about the implications of semaglutide IRA pricing decision on the long-term prospects for that channel?

William Sibold

Analyst

Great. So let me just give you -- I'll give you the quick answer on what the distribution is. We're anticipating it's 50% to 55% commercial, 30% to 35% Medicare and then about 10% Medicaid and other. We're still -- remember, we're at less than 10% penetration here. So that's going to evolve a little bit in time, but we're staying in that range at the moment. Maybe, Mardi, do you want to talk about Q4?

Mardi Dier

Analyst

Yes, definitely. Hi, Prakhar, thanks for the question. So, listen, we've had a great 2025 so far in fourth quarter. We expect that to continue in terms of steadily adding patients, really sort of the driver for our business. We don't see any change there. We did have a very high base in our revenue coming into third quarter that was very much patient demand. We did have some favorability in gross to net, which we discussed in a high demand quarter from an inventory standpoint. So, we're in a very strong position. But going into fourth quarter, working off that base and taking into effect that there's fewer selling days in the fourth quarter in general, and that as we discussed, the gross to net begins to -- we'll see the commercial rebating starting to take effect in the fourth quarter. So, we'll be at the midpoint of that 20% to 30% range. All that put together, we think we'll see high single-digit growth quarter-over-quarter going into the fourth quarter, but still a very strong quarter. And of course, we're on over $1 billion run rate in revenue. So fantastic.

William Sibold

Analyst

And Prakhar, maybe just one comment there as well. I think more and more the measure turns to patients and patients being treated. And as you can see, we are doing really, really great in our steadily adding patients, and that's something that is going to, we've said, remain to be steadily adding in the future and feel really, really great. Again, where we are, it's less than 10% penetration. There's a ton of patients that are out there that still need to be treated, and that represents a great opportunity for us.

Mardi Dier

Analyst

Yes. And I just wanted to come back to 2026 that Prakhar asked about, too. So again, everything Bill just said for the steadily adding patients, we see that going into 2026 as well. So steadily adding patients, we anticipate and we said in the script, robust net sales growth in 2026. But if you think about -- just think about the phasing, right? So we're going to have the impact of the gross to net starting in January right at the beginning of the year. So you're going to see that step up from the contracting and we will be in the high 30s. And of course, we always have the Q1 effect on top of that, right? So, in terms of the phasing, you'll see some of that play through in 2026. But net-net, we see robust growth going into 2026.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Srikripa Devarakonda of Truist Securities.

Srikripa Devarakonda

Analyst

Congratulations on the quarter. I was wondering if you can talk a little bit on the expected cadence for EU launch and how that -- when we think about 2026, that might add to the growth? I know it takes time for EU launches. And also the SG&A that was reported, does that include sales force in Europe? Or should we be thinking about slight increase in SG&A over the next several months to reflect sales force on the ground in Europe?

William Sibold

Analyst

Mardi, do you want to take that first?

Mardi Dier

Analyst

Yes, I'll definitely answer the SG&A question first, and we can talk about just EU launch in general. So, SG&A for building out Germany, right? So that where we're only launching there as of right now is included in our SG&A expenses. And you'll continue to see that included in SG&A. But as we said, when we move into country by country, we're going to be very disciplined, and we look at a 2 to 3-year positive contribution metric for each country. So, the spend will increase with Europe. But again, we're mindful with each country. And then just the EU launch, let's just talk about that. I'll start and Bill, I don't know if you want to add? But we did start launching in the third quarter, but really, we were just testing the channel. So just de minimis amount of revenue for 2025, we believe, and where we said we can start that -- we can start seeing some impact in 2026. So, I would say the robust sales growth that we're talking about 2026 is by far and predominantly the U.S. sales growth and adding patients, which we've discussed. And Europe, again, it's going to play out. It is slow. We have to build the system. We have to wire the system in countries in Europe. It will just be Germany next year. So it will be -- it will add, but not a significant amount.

William Sibold

Analyst

Yes. I think that's really, really great comment. It is Germany right now, and we're really excited. I mean, first of all, we've hired an outstanding team there. The team is great. The feedback that we're getting is that MASH is -- needs to be treated. It's prevalent, very similar to the U.S. in that sense, but it takes time, right? You got to wire the system. It's practice by practice, it's prescriber by prescriber. And we're taking all the steps in the usual next countries to look at as well. We've started putting teams in place that are evaluating the market and our launch strategy there. And again, just absolutely high-quality team that's in place. So, we feel really good about the long-term prospects, but we also know that there's a lot of wiring to do, and we've got to navigate the reimbursement process in each country, which takes some time, but we got a great team to do that.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Kaveri Pohlman of Clear Street.

Kaveri Pohlman

Analyst

Congrats on the progress. Are there any systemic differences or challenges in insurance approval rates for Rezdiffra depending on whether the prescription comes from an endocrinologist versus a hepatologist or gastroenterologist. And maybe just like a connected question to that. Besides the clinical data that you showed on Slide 14, is there any real-world evidence that you have collected or showing that Rezdiffra can prevent or delay the progression of F4 cirrhosis perhaps based on the feedback from its current use by physicians? In other words, is there like any evidence leading to the preference of Rezdiffra or GLP-1s in F2/ F3 MASH patient?

William Sibold

Analyst

Yes. Thanks for the question. Maybe starting there. We're seeing more and more real-world evidence that's coming to life. Some of it will be presented at AASLD this week or this week into next week. And we expect as more patients start to hit the 1-year mark and beyond that there will be more. Anecdotally, we're hearing really, really great feedback. When you launch a product, you never know what's going to happen in the real world. You have your clinical data and you're not sure what real-world experience is going to be. So far, the anecdotal feedback has been extremely strong by prescribers, and they're seeing effects on, obviously, liver fat. They're seeing effects on fibrosis and all the other myriad of other things, LSTs, lipids, et cetera. So, we're really excited about the real-world evidence reading out. And we've done work with claims databases, et cetera. So more to come, but early indicators are extremely strong. So really excited about that. To your first question, it really is payer to payer about, this is this utilization management criteria, who can prescribe, et cetera. And for the most part, it is -- it refers to specialists. And in the specialists, that can be hepatologists and gastroenterologists. And then in some cases, it may or may not name endocrinologists. So, it's usually either a requirement to be prescribed by a specialist or in consultation with a specialist. But again, that's something which really varies on a plan-by-plan basis. We don't see that as a any kind of a hindrance now. And remember, our focus is the specialists. We believe Rezdiffra should be prescribed by these specialists. Now in time, that may change, but we think that this is a very serious disease. It is a very serious disease, and we want to have the specialists get experience with Rezdiffra in treating these patients before it would ever extend beyond that. And that's crystal clear we make that crystal clear with payers as well. That is our intent.

Tina Ventura

Analyst

Great. Thanks, Bill. And thank you all for your time and interest today. This now concludes our call. A replay of this webcast will be available on our website in approximately 2 hours. Thanks for joining us.

Operator

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for your participation in today's conference. You may now disconnect. Have a wonderful day.