Stephen Farber
Analyst · A.J. Rice with Credit Suisse
Thanks, Roger, and good morning. Thanks for joining the call. I'd like to touch on a couple of items within our first quarter results and our guidance; then spend some time on the meaningful changes to our scope of transformational activities; and lastly, talk about cash flow and uses of cash. As a first comment, you can see that we have reclassified MedData's result as discontinued operations based on the progress to date and our ongoing sale process, and we're now presenting and guiding to results for our continuing operations. To help bridge our results to your models, we've provided first quarter revenue, adjusted EBITDA and adjusted EPS results for both our continuing operations and MedData in our release this morning. And as you'll see in those tables, on a consolidated basis, Q1 was in line with our guidance ranges for both adjusted EBITDA and adjusted EPS. I'm not going to comment much further on the MedData process except to say that it continues to progress in an ordinary course of fashion. In terms of the first quarter in general, our top line results were slightly below what we had forecast internally, but our cost activities were effective such that adjusted EBITDA was a little bit ahead of the midpoint of our range. I do want to call out a few puts and takes and how they relate to our thoughts on the second quarter. Within women and children services, our NICU day growth was fairly good at just over 1.5 points. As Roger mentioned, this is a function of upticks in both the admission rate and length of stay, while total births at the hospitals where we cover the NICU were down a little less than 1% versus last year. As we've talked about a lot in the past, that underlying birth trend is what we watch most closely as the key driver of our NICU points as opposed the quarter-to-quarter gyrations around admit rate and length of stay. Our paramedics is also modestly favorable, which reflects a positive mix in comparison to women and children services and no headwind in anesthesiology. So the between NICU volumes and anesthesia paramedics, those were 2 positive variances from the general environment we had anticipated as part of our budgeting process to formulate our outlook for 2019. On the flip-side, anesthesia volumes were modestly lower in the quarter, yielding same-unit revenue growth that was within the range we guided to for the quarter. On the costs side, we continue to progress on our ongoing operational and shared service initiatives, and we're still on target against the broader goals for improvement that we set last summer. Cost trend remains a significant headwind for us even more so in a challenging revenue environment, and the complexity of our organization doesn't lend itself to broad levers that we can pull. That said, we did see some level of deceleration in the first quarter with most of that reflecting our own actions. To that end, I'll talk in more detail in just a minute about how we've expanded the scope of our transformational activities to supplement our plans through this year and next. Below the adjusted EBITDA line, I want to highlight that we've now completed a full refresh of our debt structure. We issued an additional $500 million of 6.25% senior notes during the first quarter, adding on to the issuance we completed in late 2018 and paying down our revolver earnings with the proceeds. In total, the 2 yields were $1 billion senior notes. We also amended of our revolving credit facility, reducing it from $2 billion to $1.2 billion and pushing out the maturity to 2024. So as of today, roughly 80% of our borrowings are fixed-rate debt. We've extended all of our maturities out to between 2023 and 2027, essentially an average of roughly 6.5 years. Related to that, one last item I'll point out is that we incurred roughly $1.5 million in onetime interest expense in the first quarter related to these refinancing activities mostly from the write-off of deferred debt issuance costs. This flowed through our interest expense line and had about $0.01 impact to the adjusted EPS that wasn't contemplated in our guide. Turning to our guidance, I'll start with the second quarter. For those of you keeping models, our outlook for adjusted EBITDA from continuing ops of $125 million to $135 million does not include the roughly $11 million in MedData EBITDA in order to bridge to what your previous estimate might have been. Also, as a reminder, similar to the first quarter, we are comping against a contribution to EBITDA in 2018 from the North Carolina anesthesiology contract that won't recur this year. For Q2 of 2018, this amount was roughly $6 million. This will be the last quarter where we're comping at that contract. In terms of any fundamental changes to our outlook, I spent a fair amount of time last quarter walking through the major components of how we arrived at our full year adjusted EBITDA forecast. I'm not going to revisit all of that, but I do want to touch on any changes we've made in our forecasting, which is a very detailed bottoms-up process. For the second quarter, this mostly relates to revenue, and we're anticipating same-unit growth of 0% to 2%. This range takes into account our thinking about external trends in volumes and mix and rate. It's also informed by our Q1 experience. As I noted, we had positive variances in the first quarter related to NICU volumes and anesthesiology paramedics, but the immediate future is difficult to argue that those will persist based on our view of our end market. As a result, we're giving more weight to our broader views of birth trends and payer mix trends and to what we saw in the first quarter. This yield to Q2 outlook of same-unit revenue growth is maybe a little below what you might have anticipated, but that's some of the thinking behind our process of developing that range, and I hope that's helpful to you. Finally, we've also revised our range of adjusted the EBITDA for full year 2019 to exclude MedData. But to be clear, that adjustment is purely arithmetic. As we noted last quarter, our initial range included and expected $45 million in EBITDA from MedData over the course of the year, and the only revision we've made is to reduce our existing range by that $45 million. The other significant items I want to talk about this morning is our transformational activity. We have meaningfully expanded the scope of this activity. And as we noted in this morning's release, we now anticipate that our aggregate investments over 2019 and 2020 in terms of consulting and other third-party resources will be at the range of roughly $75 million to $100 million. I devoted a good amount of time last quarter to the broader thinking behind our transformational and restructuring activities. In short, we believe there are significant opportunities to harness data and analytics and technology to drive performance across the enterprise, but also that this will require meaningful IT and operational investments in areas like technology-enabled process change, shared service expansion and improvement and also the deployment of administrative tools and technology directly into our practices. To that end, we've contemplated different areas where we intend to supplement our own internal resources with external resources in order to accelerate these efforts, along with support for the implementation of these tools as well as analytics. We started with the commitment to roll out a robust scheduling and clinical resource management tool across our anesthesia organization, which is now meaningfully underway. Since then, we've also gone through an intense process of sizing scope and other opportunities within our organization. These span across our practices as well as our shared service functions, and they include our entire revenue cycle, human resources and information technology where we believe that systems improvements can open the door for meaningful IT-enabled process change. To go through this scoping, we have now engaged three firms, Accenture, FTI Consulting and South, each of which brings significant experience and capabilities to our areas of focus. Across these three partners, we are standing up targeted and focused work streams meant to complement each other as they unfold. And in terms of the investments we're committing to, I think a good way for you think about them in the aggregate is somewhere in the range of $10 million a quarter, sometimes a bit more, which will flow through our transformational and restructuring line item. We also intend for this process to be finite, although a realistic time frame is probably 8 to 10 quarters with the majority of the activity happening over the balance of 2019 and through 2020. I would say in terms of how this activity relates to our outlook, I would say that our viewpoint is really towards 2020 and beyond since most of the returns we expect to yield won't be immediate. As we go through the decision-making about where we're committing capital, I think it's safe for you to assume that the anticipated returns on the investments are not only significant but also recurring once they begin to yield. Just as importantly, and as Roger mentioned, the systems and process improvements we intend to achieve will also enhance our ability to support the physicians affiliated with MEDNAX to optimize their working environment and to ensure that they can continue to take great care of the patients. I want to wrap up with some comments about cash flow and frame up for you the way we're thinking about our sources and uses. On the sources side, I think it's still realistic for you to expect us to convert between 60% and 2/3 of our adjusted EBITDA to operating cash flow. When it comes to cash flow, I like to talk in ballpark terms since there are always moving parts and timing issues around working capital. For 2019, against our forecast range of $505 million to $535 million in adjusted EBITDA, that would suggest a ballpark expectation of operating cash flow in the range of $300 million to $350 million prior to our transformational and restructuring spend. We did disclose this morning that our Q1 CapEx for continuing operations, excluding MedData, was just under $6 million. And I think a range of $25 million to $30 million is a good expectation for you to have of our annual CapEx needs for continuing operations. This is meaningfully below our total spend in 2018 of $49 million. So all told, a realistic view of free cash flow for us for the year from continuing operations is roughly $300 million, again, prior to our transformational and restructuring spend. In terms of uses, I'll reiterate Roger's comment that we expect to pursue a balanced approach towards transformational investments, acquisitions and share repurchases. So far this year, we've been more heavily weighted towards share repurchases given our views about the value of our stock. So I won't comment on how much more we utilize our remaining $150 million in buyback authorization, but we are nonetheless biased towards routine, persistent activity on that side. Our expectations of acquisition activity are relatively unchanged, and we'll continue to pursue targeted, strategic acquisitions primarily within women and children services and radiology. And third, we utilized our free cash flow towards the internal transformational investments we have talked about at length today. Lastly, I'll reiterate from the last conference call that we intend to use any proceeds from the sale of MedData towards a similar combination, debt repayment, share repurchases and acquisitions. And with that, I'll turn it back to Roger.