Earnings Labs

The Marcus Corporation (MCS)

Q1 2012 Earnings Call· Fri, Sep 16, 2011

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good morning everyone and welcome to the Marcus Corporation First Quarter Earnings Conference call. My name is Jennifer and I will be your operator for today. At this time all participants are in a listen-only mode. We will conduct a question and answer session towards the end of this conference. (Operator instructions). As a reminder this conference is being recorded. Joining us today are Greg Marcus, President and Chief Executive Officer and Doug Neis, Chief Financial Officer of The Marcus Corporation. At this time, I would like to turn the program over to Mr. Neis for his opening remarks. Please go ahead, sir.

Doug Neis

Management

Thank you, and welcome everybody to our fiscal 2012 first quarter conference call. As usual, I need to begin by stating that we plan on making a number of forward-looking statements on our call today. Forward-looking statements could include but not be limited to statements about our future revenues and earnings expectations, our future RevPAR, occupancy rates, and room rate expectations for our hotels and resorts division, our expectations about the quality, quantity and audience appeal of film products expected to be made available to us in the future, our expectations about the future trends in the business group and leisure travel industry, and in our markets, our expectations and plans regarding growth in number and type of our properties and facilities, our expectations regarding various non-operating line items on our earnings statements, and our expectations regarding future capital expenditures. Of course, our actual results could differ materially from those projected or suggested by our forward-looking statements. Factors, risks and uncertainties which could impact our ability to achieve our expectations are included in the Risk Factors section of our 10-K and 10-Q filings which can be obtained from the SEC or the Company. We will also post all Regulation G disclosures when applicable on our website at www.marcuscorp.com. So with that behind us, let’s talk about our fiscal 2012 first quarter results. As you might surmise we are quite pleased with our reported results, it was nice to have both businesses show substantial improvement at the same time. I am going to take you through some of the details behind the numbers and then turn the call over to Greg for his comments. As you can see there really weren’t any significant variations and most of the other income expense lines below operating income other than another reduction in interest…

Greg Marcus

Management

Thanks Doug. I will begin my remarks today with our Theatre division. As we shared with you eight weeks ago during our year end conference call, our new year appear to be off to a good start and as you can see by our reported numbers, the rest of the first quarter held up quite nicely. In fact we ended our traditionally strong summer quarter with box office increases in five of our last six weeks. As Doug noted, this was our second straight quarter with an attendance increase over the prior year of 2% and more. A very nice reversal from the negative attendance trend we experienced during each of the first three quarters of last year. And it is obviously no secret that the most important factor impacting attendance has been and always will be the quality and quantity of the films released during the period. This summer film slate certainly was highlighted by the performance of the top four pictures noted in our release all of which happen to be sequels. Harry Porter, Transformers, the Hangover and Cars. But there also was a lot more depth to the film slate this time round. Our indication of this is the fact that this year we had twelve films produced at least $1.5 million of box office receipts for our circuit during our first quarter, compared to only seven films that reached that mark last year. That second terror film can make the difference between the record revenues we reported this year during the first quarter and an averaged to down quarter like we reported last year. It is certainly too early to tell whether we will continue this positive trends in our current second fiscal quarter. September is always our slowest month of the year and historically in…

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, (operator instructions) and please stand by for your first question. Our first question comes from the line of David Loeb with Robert W. Baird. Please proceed. David Loeb – Robert W. Baird & Co: Good morning gentlemen. I have a few as usual. One on the hotel side. Greg I appreciate your color about the margins and occupancy to persons ADR, it still looks like a decent rate of growth this quarter. As you look over the next four quarters, are you getting to a point where your occupancy is getting high enough that you can start pushing rate a little more aggressively?

Greg Marcus

Management

You know, I hope so. We have got to start to actually having people sleep on the roof soon in some of the hotels but its been a challenge, our seeing some opportunities, we are in the negotiating rate season, we are seeing some ability to push rate, it’s not going to be anything huge, but we are moving forward, we are making progress on that. When we try to push rate earlier on in the cycle, we found that we really cliffed out, like the minute we have a lot of occupancy even if we dropped the rate, if we raise the rate then all of a sudden it will go away, we were much deeper into the online travel agents and the discounters who are moving away from, and so I suspect that we will have more opportunities, but again who knows with the economic we will sort of see where things go. But I think one of the things that is helpful is that we are seeing significant business from our corporate accounts and we know that corporate America have got a lot of money in the balance sheet, they may not be hiring you, they may not be investing but may be their investments are in the hotel business.

Doug Neis

Management

And this is where I would follow up on what Greg just said David is that 6.4 that we did this quarter was probably more reflection of verses the term pushing rate was more of a reflection of that shift where we were filling the rooms with more of that corporate and volume corporate business and individual business traveler verses that heavily discounted internet channel customer. So it’s not so much that we took any of the rates that we charged each and little channel up significantly, it’s more of a channel shift. David Loeb – Robert W. Baird & Co: Makes perfect sense. And given all the turmoil in the stock market and hotel stock threw a degree in your stock and till today. Are you seeing anything in the business, are you seeing any changes in travel patterns or booking partners as you look ahead for the next quarter or two?

Greg Marcus

Management

Not really David. It’s interesting, I have a theory that I will share with you, I don’t know if it’s accurate or not, but you know – one thing – because I think we are all hearing the same thing that people were cautious, we are seeing people retched down their RevPAR expectations but still having growth in them. The only thing I can think off is that as I said corporate balance sheets are in much better shape than they were and it could be there’s a little bit of reversion of the mean if you think about work that you guys do when you analyze our companies and you analyze our performance, you tie a lot to GDP and I think you will be the first to say that in the last cycle when we went down we blew those co-relations out of the water probably somewhat induced by government’s negativity towards travel and it could be that we are just reverting back to the mean and that things may slowdown in the economy, but we so far overshot the map on the way down that we may be a little protected. I don’t know, it’s just a guess but I figure I’d share.

Doug Neis

Management

And may be what I would add David is expect a question like that, like talk to our guys and ask them the same question and the only thing that -- struggle a little bit to have an answer other than saying may be just a little bit in the association type business, the company business seems as Greg just said, it has been very strong, it has been the strength of our business and it appears to be the strength of this upcoming quarter as well, but some of the association business where now people don’t have to go and so may be, we have seen that the pickup and some of those types of events, may be is being impacted just a little bit where may be a few less people are going to the things that they don’t have to go to but we -- my guys struggle a little bit to try to come up with an answer to that question because we are not seeing a lot of it. David Loeb – Robert W. Baird & Co: We are hearing that from a lot of others. One more hotel question and this is serious with the brewers in contention this year. Do you think that Milwaukee Hotels will have any particular benefit in the second quarter from potential play-off related business in the markets or does that go the other way where you have rooms blocked off and if they don’t have a game 6 or 7 or whatever, that you’ve not booked other business?

Greg Marcus

Management

It depends a lot David. Right now for those who aren’t in this market to know. I mean the brewers are – right now they could get a certain game or they could be hosting a series in the first round. They could not be and so that makes the difference. If they host I think it’s on a weekend. I think we do have some – there’s something going on. We might have some conflicts so it may not be that big of a push or big of an addition if that’s the case. On the other hand if it falls at the series, I even can’t remember which way it falls. If the series falls the other way then it would be a really good thing. Obviously if it gets to the second round that even becomes better. So the first series could only be, worst case scenario could only be one game.

Doug Neis

Management

But the truth as you know, this is a particularly strong period anyway for us and so it’s better, but it’s a high class problem and it beats a poke in the eye with a sharp stick, as they say. David Loeb – Robert W. Baird & Co: Okay, great. I have a couple of others but I’ll come back in after some other people have a chance. Thanks.

Operator

Operator

(Operator instructions). Our next question comes from the line of Mike Rindos with Rodman & Renshaw. Please proceed sir. Mike Rindos - Rodman & Renshaw: Hey guys, fantastic quarter. Congratulations. Wanted to talk a little bit more about the digital rollouts in the theatres and get your sense for the upcoming holiday seasons and how much of an expansion or how many more theatres will be showing 3D? Can you comment on the industry’s take rates for 3D films lately and then to follow that, what you think the pipeline of alternative content looks like for the coming three or six months or whatever your viewpoint is.

Greg Marcus

Management

It will have no impact on – let me start with your first question, Mike. It has no impact on the amount of 3D screens we’re going to have with the ability to have more, but we’re not making any more investments in 3D at this point. I think that as everybody has seen, there’s a bit of a question mark over what is going to be the actual demand for 3D. 3D is here, it’s an important part of the mix, but where does it shake out? I don’t think anybody just – anybody knows even yet where we’re going to end up and how much of a contributor 3D is going to be. Certainly producing a lot of 3D movies but as I think you know, the percentage of business going to 3D has been declining. So I wouldn’t tell you that digital is going to have any impact on that. We continue to see expansion in the alternative content area. I saw a list today of some of the new stuff coming. I posed an interesting question to the guys on the email in the last 24 hours, not just at it related to alternative content which is how we’re promoting because one of the problems of alternative content if you’ve never thought about this, but what makes movies work if you think about it? A movie plays 30 times a week, so if it runs for four weeks it gets 120 runs and if it’s on 4,000 screens you have like 500,000 plays across the country. Think of the marketing you can throw at that. If it plays – alternative content if it plays on ah, if you’re lucky 500 screens across the country, 1,000 screens across the country, once, twice. How much marketing can you…

Greg Marcus

Management

Well, as I think you know and we originally introduced this at our flagship Majestic Theatre in Brookfield, Wisconsin with a single auditorium. Last, I guess it was May, we opened two more auditoriums there. It was April or May and we’re very happy with how that’s worked out. We’ve gotten better operating efficiencies out of having the three. The customer response to it has been very positive. Certainly it’s only one theatre, but certainly they are part of the mix here why we’ve reported such a nice per capita numbers increase. So we could do more of them. This fiscal year, I would suspect that probably one other theatre might get three screens and that’s one option that we’re looking at right now. Certainly there are a couple of others that we’re talking about right now but whether it would happen in time to really impact this year, not quite so sure. If it did it would happen in the spring. It wouldn’t have a lot of impact for this year. But we’re identifying theatres right now that can be candidates for that type of a program and we certainly learn that it’s important to have more than one and so I would certainly expect that we’re going to be – we hope to be announcing at least one location. As you saw we announced another location just yesterday where we’ll be putting in a separate Zaffiro's, taking out an auditorium and doing the Zaffiro’s separate restaurant like we did up in our North Shore Theatre in Mequon, Wisconsin and I suspect that we’ll be announcing sometime in this year at least one more location with the big screen Bistro.

Doug Neis

Management

I think that – to build on that, you were much more delicate than I might have been and this is (inaudible), we’re very pleased with what’s going on at the Majestic with adding two screens but one thing you need to remember is that we’re pleased because we screwed up. (Inaudible) we learned. We’ve always said that Majestic was a little bit of our lab and this is a business. We have to do some R&D and as we sort of find our way through what works in terms of food and movie theatres and what we figure or what doesn’t work and what doesn’t work is just building one screen and then we realize, boy, if we had two more screens we could leverage that kitchen and that labor that was servicing that one screen much more effectively and it did. It’s been very effective there. Now what does that mean going forward? It means boy, that model looks interesting and we want to continue to work at it, but we still have more work to do to figure out exactly what the right mix is. Once you’ve built the kitchen, do you have a freestanding restaurant and big screen Bistros? How do you mix that out? So we're going to continue to play with it and look at it and noodle at it and we’re seeing – again we’re seeing nice progress at Zaffiro’s in the North Shore in Mequon. Started off at a level, we’ve increased the business by adding different things like delivery and what is it called, focusing on our pickup business and dessert, working other segments. One of the things we learned very on it’s very easy to fill the restaurant from 6:00 to 8:00. So we can – if the food moves fast we can turn it very quickly. So our trick to get the investment to be a good return is to build those shoulder periods and we’re doing it, but it’s just taking us some time to learn how to do it. So we’ll move forward with it and as soon as we understand exactly what we’re doing them we’ll roll them out faster. Mike Rindos - Rodman & Renshaw: Okay, great. Thanks. Good luck.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Gregory Macosko with Lord Abbett. Please proceed sir.

Gregory Macosko - Lord Abbett

Analyst · Lord Abbett. Please proceed sir.

Yes, thank you. Nice quarter. With regard to the theatre, just so I understand, you say that you’ll have 90% of the screens on digital and that’s by the end of October and that’s where you’ll stand? You won’t go 100%?

Greg Marcus

Management

Yeah. We’ll be at – I think the actual number is like 93% or something like that Gregory and what’s left are things like – we still have I think three theatres, I think it’s three of them that have our budget operated theatres and so we’re not converting those and a couple of other ones where there’s maybe a lease or something like that where we’re not – we didn’t make the commitments yet to convert those to digital. So we may not ever be 100%, but this is effectively, from a first month perspective this is effectively 100%.

Gregory Macosko - Lord Abbett

Analyst · Lord Abbett. Please proceed sir.

And with regard to the 3D screen, is the idea that obviously you want to have a 3D movie in there and have the right 3D movie, but those screens can also play a normal movie as well. Is that correct?

Greg Marcus

Management

Yeah, that’s correct.

Gregory Macosko - Lord Abbett

Analyst · Lord Abbett. Please proceed sir.

Okay. So the utilization is fine, obviously a better payoff for the 3D hopefully, but…

Doug Neis

Management

Yeah. So as Greg was saying earlier, it really comes down to, once you have digital, adding 3D is not that much more. There’s a cost associated with it, don’t get me wrong, but the bigger cost is associated with getting digital first and so we’ll have to kind of watch to monitor how the 3D plays out and decide, ultimately decide whether we have the right number of 3D screens right now or whether we need to add to that or not. That would be something we’ll have to evaluate.

Gregory Macosko - Lord Abbett

Analyst · Lord Abbett. Please proceed sir.

Can you talk about the concession per person? That 11.7% was a pretty big number. How much of that would relate to the big screen and the pizza, the Zaffiro’s or whatever relates to that versus kind of in the theatre?

Doug Neis

Management

I don’t have a number that I could just break down that 11.7%. I’ve rattled off the fact that there really were a bunch of factors. That was one of them. As Greg said, not just the big screen Bistro but just the other places where we have additional food and beverage. The Zaffiro’s up in North Shore and we’ve got some other locations as well where we’ve expanded the offerings. They’re all contributing. As I also mentioned last year, our fiscal year, second half of the year we changed our pricing to be sales tax added to the sales tax inclusive. That has some impact and then just the films quarter to quarter can make a difference and we had, Harry Porter certainly was a good popcorn movie and so we had a bunch of pictures that might have contributed to that as well. It’s hard to kind of break it down and say one factor had this much impact.

Gregory Macosko - Lord Abbett

Analyst · Lord Abbett. Please proceed sir.

And then with regard to the hotels, the ADR was certainly nice to see. If we look forward your comment about the corporate being strong and continuing to look good into the quarter and the other comment was that we’re putting them on the roof. So is the point being as we look into the second quarter, there in effect will be kind of a continued mix improvement kind of a trade-off corporate for sort of weak internet and the lower price rooms?

Doug Neis

Management

Yeah. So far look, it’s only September 15th but we haven’t – what we were seeing in the first quarter, the same thing is happening right now and so the booking, the lead time on this corporate business is different from the group business. It’s still short, Gregory, and so it’s really hard to go too far out ahead and kind of forecast that, but yes we are still seeing strong individual business travel and corporate volume business at our hotel. That by definition helps us wean ourselves a little bit off of the other internet channel stuff.

Gregory Macosko - Lord Abbett

Analyst · Lord Abbett. Please proceed sir.

But the occupancy – in other words, the occupancy is high and probably going to likely kind of stay there or should stay at that level and the point being again the shift in mix going forward would be the idea.

Greg Marcus

Management

Yeah. But remember as we move into the – we’re moving out of our strongest season. So I don’t know what the occupancy rates are going to be going forward, but we will, as the year progresses it gets to be more challenging. So as we indicated I don’t – again I couldn’t go back any farther than the years I had and of course we haven’t always had these eight properties. We never had higher occupancies than what we just had in the first quarter at these eight properties if you add them all up. So again kind of looking in the – first of all further into the future, it could be that the ultimate mix is a little higher rates and a little less occupancy in order to get that optimum margin that we want to get as well, but right now we’re taking the hand that we’re being dealt.

Gregory Macosko - Lord Abbett

Analyst · Lord Abbett. Please proceed sir.

Right. Of course. Okay and then the wide range in the CapEx, is that 40 million range basically dependent upon the Corners retailing project?

Greg Marcus

Management

That was about 20 of it and so certainly that is a big part of that range, no question about it. When we broke down the 50 to 90, we kind of broke it down as 25 to 35 in each of the two divisions and then another 20 potentially for the corners depending on the timing. So it is the single biggest reason for that wide range and the rest really comes down to timing on the projects. Some of the growth things that we’re trying to pursue if we hit on a couple of these things where it might involve a minority equity investment, things like that. Those are all the kind of things that would get us to the higher end of the range within the divisions.

Gregory Macosko - Lord Abbett

Analyst · Lord Abbett. Please proceed sir.

And give us some kind of update or your sense of how the Corners thing is going.

Greg Marcus

Management

The Corners is moving along very nicely. We’re seeing really good interest in the tenants, potential tenants, but that being said it is a complicated project. It has got a lot of moving parts to it. Getting everybody is – the point being telling you the specific – I feel confident in the project but the specific timing is really hard to pin down. You’ve got a lot of players trying to coordinate together in terms of getting all the – we’ve got the involvement of municipalities, we’ve got the public finance piece of it, we’ve got to put the tenants together, we’ve got our anchor to get to work with them, design of the center, the value engineering component that always comes on. So it’s a big one so it’s going to take some time.

Gregory Macosko - Lord Abbett

Analyst · Lord Abbett. Please proceed sir.

But you’re committed to this and this is going to happen?

Greg Marcus

Management

You put a conjunction in there. You said this is going to happen. We’re committed to this. It’s our intention to do it, but we have to have – but everything has to happen. We’ve got – we have a lot of pieces that have to finish and get, this is – that need to get – need to get done.

Gregory Macosko - Lord Abbett

Analyst · Lord Abbett. Please proceed sir.

Okay, but the pieces are still coming together upfront? If it could still not come together because if you don’t get all the players to agree, etc, it could still not happen?

Greg Marcus

Management

Yeah, absolutely.

Gregory Macosko - Lord Abbett

Analyst · Lord Abbett. Please proceed sir.

Okay, good. All right and then finally, I don’t have the press release in front of me…

Greg Marcus

Management

Greg?

Gregory Macosko - Lord Abbett

Analyst · Lord Abbett. Please proceed sir.

Yes?

Greg Marcus

Management

So what I’m not going to do is build the spec shopping center.

Gregory Macosko - Lord Abbett

Analyst · Lord Abbett. Please proceed sir.

Good, glad to hear that.

Greg Marcus

Management

Okay. Don’t have to worry about that.

Gregory Macosko - Lord Abbett

Analyst · Lord Abbett. Please proceed sir.

All right. Just the last question and I don’t have the press release in front of me, but what did you pay on the buyback per share?

Doug Neis

Management

It averaged about 8.5, Greg. So it was about $8.50 give or take in the average.

Gregory Macosko - Lord Abbett

Analyst · Lord Abbett. Please proceed sir.

Well, that’s the thing I can congratulate you most on, good timing. Thank you.

Doug Neis

Management

Thank you.

Operator

Operator

(Operator instructions). We have a follow up question from David Loeb with Robert W. Baird. Please proceed. David Loeb – Robert W. Baird & Co: Just one left. Greg hit one of mine. Congratulations on the Bill Reynolds hire. Obviously that’s a really high class individual you’ve added to your team. Greg, can you just give a little bit of color on what you think the magnitude of your investments over the next two, three, five years may be? What kind of impact do you think this could have and what kind of return potentials are you hoping for?

Greg Marcus

Management

Well, David, the return potential is what – for us should be what our hurdle rates have always been and I don’t see that changing. So I expect that we aren’t going to make investments unless they get there and so that’s what we’re going to target to do. You know us, we’re not going to try and shoot for crazy returns and take undue risks, but we’re going to try and get nice returns with a reasonable amount of risk. The magnitude of what it could be, it’s going to be – part of it is going to be dependent on what happens in the markets. If things start to loosen up a little bit, we’re seeing the REITs seem to be off the table right now. That could create opportunity. I do think that marrying a guy with Bill’s experience and time in the industry with our balance sheet and our intellectual capital and our experience is probably a pretty good marriage and as I said, we may be able – our hope is that we’re able to lever and bring in outside capital as well. David Loeb – Robert W. Baird & Co: That’s great. Very helpful. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

I’m sorry. Thank you. At this time it appears there are no other questions. I’d like to turn the call back to Mr. Neis for any additional or closing comments.

Doug Neis

Management

Well, thank you everybody for joining us today. We really appreciate it. We hope we see some of you at our annual meeting on Tuesday, October 11th at the Intercontinental Hotel in Mequon, Wisconsin. For those of you who cannot attend, we’ll be webcasting the meeting. We also look forward to talking to you once again in December when we release our second quarter fiscal 2012 results. Thank you and have a great day.

Operator

Operator

That concludes today’s call. You may disconnect your line at any time.