Linda S. Huber - Moody's Corp.
Management
Yeah. Alex, it's Linda, I think we should also point out that again for us last year, we had the reverse pattern where the second half of the year was much stronger so the comps become more difficult for us. Just to kind of go through the views we're hearing from various investment banks, and again, these are not Moody's views, the first quarter was a record issuance for investment grade and that reflects low market volatility, attractive rates and tight spreads, as Ray said, $450 billion of issuance through the end of April. And once we get through the blackouts, we expect issuance to pick up in May. Last week, it was $40 billion in issuance which is pretty strong, this week's calling for $30 billion to $35 billion, and with the tenure at 2-3-6, that remains a pretty attractive set of issuance conditions for investors. We do expect as is being noted this morning about 94% probability that the Fed will do a rate hike in June. Thus far, that has seemed to mostly flatten yield curve. For high yield bonds, it's been a bit of a mixed condition, it's $100 billion so far this year. The pipeline is light-ish due to the factors that Ray had commented on. That's contracted with leverage loans, which has been $300 billion of issuance to date this year. The activity is moving to the leveraged loan market. We saw a record start to 2017, but this is important, Alex. 75% of that volume is from refinancing and re-pricing. CLO issuance has also been robust, $25 billion year-to-date and the pipeline is strong in these areas and we look to that for increased activity. In Europe, things are quite positive. The euro and sterling markets are resilient, conditions are constructive, spreads at all-time lows, rates historically low, but the busy political calendar offsets that potentially and we will see some choppiness. On spec rate in Europe, strong leveraged financing activity, leveraged loan activity reached a post financial crisis high in Q1. High yield bond spreads in Europe at a 10-year low and of course as we mentioned, the macro conditions again may cause choppiness in the speculative grade market as well, but generally, pretty good conditions and we'll have to see what happens, but if you want to finance, the market remains quite attractive.