Earnings Labs

Mechanics Bank (MCHB)

Q3 2021 Earnings Call· Tue, Oct 26, 2021

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

00:03 Good day, and welcome to the HomeStreet Third Quarter Twenty Twenty One Earnings Call. All participants will be in a listen-only mode. [Operator Instructions]. On today’s presentation, there will be an opportunity to ask questions. Please note, that this event is being recorded. 00:26 Now I would now like to turn the call over to Mr. Mark Mason, Chairman and CEO. Please go ahead.

Mark Mason

Analyst

00:34 Hello and thank you for joining us for our third quarter twenty twenty one earnings call. Before we begin, I'd like to remind you that our detailed earnings release and an accompanying investor presentation were filed with the SEC on Form 8-K yesterday and are available on our website at ir.homestreet.com under the news and events link. In addition, a recording and a transcript of this call will be available at the same address following our call. 01:03 Please note that during our call today, we may make certain predictive statements that reflect our current views and expectations about the company's performance and financial results. These are likely forward-looking statements that are made subject to the Safe Harbor statements included in yesterday's earnings release, our investor deck and the risk factors disclosed in our other public filings. Additionally, reconciliations to non-GAAP measures referred to in our call today can be found on our earnings release and investor deck available on our website. 01:37 Joining me today is our Chief Financial Officer, John Michel. John will briefly discuss our financial results and then I'd like to give an update on our results of operations and our outlook going forward. John?

John Michel

Analyst

01:51 Thank you, Mark. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us. In the third quarter of twenty twenty one, our net income was twenty seven million dollars or one point thirty one dollar per share as compared to net income of twenty nine million dollars or one point three seven dollars per share in the second quarter of twenty twenty one. 02:10 Our annualized return on tangible common equity for the third quarter was fifteen point six percent. Our annualized return on average assets was one point four eight percent and our efficiency ratio was sixty two point eight percent. Our net interest income in the third quarter was slightly lower than the second quarter due to a one point seven million dollars decrease, and interest income derived from PPP loans, which was partially offset by higher levels of non-PPP loans. 02:39 PPP loans caused our net interest margin to be higher by eleven basis points. Excluding the impact of PPP loans, our net interest margin in the third quarter of twenty twenty one was consistent with our net interest margin in the second quarter of twenty twenty one. As of September thirtieth twenty twenty one, outstanding PPP loans were seventy seven million dollars with deferred fees of two point four million dollars. 3:05 As a result of the continued favor performance of our loan portfolio and the improving outlook of the impact of COVID-19 on our loan portfolio, we recorded a five million dollars recovery of our allowance for credit losses in the third quarter of twenty twenty one. As we continue to have more clarity of the minimal impact COVID-19 is having on our loan portfolio and with projected improvements in our economies, we expect to recover additional amounts of our allowance for credit losses in…

Mark Mason

Analyst

05:17 Thank you, John. HomeStreet's results for the third quarter continued our outstanding results for the year. Our results reflect our diversified business model, the benefits of our conservative credit culture and continuing focused on operating efficiency. Our loan origination levels remained strong with eight zero four million dollars of originations and excluding the impact of PPP loans and despite continuing high levels of prepayments. Our total loans grew at an annualized rate of nineteen percent during the quarter, and nine percent year-to-date. 05:52 As expected, our single family mortgage loan volume and profit margins decreased from second quarter levels and our revenue has now declined to near normal levels. The credit quality of our loan portfolio continued its strong performance. As John mentioned, greater clarity on the impact of COVID on our portfolio allowed us to recover five million dollars of our ACL. 06:18 The second consecutive quarter, our mortgage banking revenue comprised only seventeen percent of total revenue and less than eight percent of our net income. We continue to anticipate a slight decrease in our origination and gain on sales activities over the next few quarters. Due to increasing revenues from other operations. We expect the revenue contributions from our single family mortgage banking business to represent an even smaller share of total company revenue going forward. 06:53 We expect our overall net interest margin to continue to benefit in the fourth quarter of twenty twenty one from the forgiveness of PPP loans. Looking forward, with the Federal Reserve indicating that short term interest rates will remain low for the foreseeable future. We expect our net interest margin excluding the impact of PPP loans, to remain level as the benefit of our deposits continuing to reprice downward, is expected to offset any decline in the yields on…

Operator

Operator

14:46 And I'll begin the question-and-answer session. [Operator Instructions] First question comes from Jeff Rulis - D.A. Davidson. Please go ahead.

Jeff Rulis

Analyst

15:13 Good morning.

Mark Mason

Analyst

15:14 Hey, Jeff.

John Michel

Analyst

15:15 Hey, Jeff.

Jeff Rulis

Analyst

15:16 Question on the gain on sale projections in twenty two, you've got sort of flattish fee income expectations just trying to see what that line item year-over-year, maybe you could just detail a little bit more of what you see with the gain on sale item?

Mark Mason

Analyst

15:38 Obviously, we expect gain on sales of single-family mortgage loans to decline from this year, right? I mean, earlier this year, we still had much more meaningful levels of refinancing activity so absent a meaningful decline in mortgage rates we are expecting the revenues next year in the single-family mortgage banking area to look a lot more like the second half of this year. So, you can see there would be a noticeable decline in those revenues. Additionally, given my earlier statements that we are planning to sell less multifamily loans next year either by whole loan sale or securitization, those revenues are expected to decline also. 16:32 We are expecting to continue to grow our multifamily Fannie Mae DUS Business and of course, those are all loan sales securitizations, we're expecting those related revenues to rise that mitigates those declines somewhat, but you could foresee these revenues declining if you sort of mix up all of those comment by twenty five percent to say have third of this year's gain on sale value.

Steve Morana

Analyst

17:05 for this year, yes. So just to add the third quarter revenue numbers probably are pretty consistent from a single-family perspective in terms of going forward and looking on a go forward basis to not be substantially different either up or down from there. The other thing I want to point out is as we go through in this mortgage banking revenues, as a prepayment speed declined, we would expect some uptick in our loan servicing revenue on the single-family mortgage side, all said some of that, yes.

Mark Mason

Analyst

17:30 Right. It’s counter cyclical, I know Jeff, you've looked at our results for a long time and seen that. Our servicing results have been pretty poor, and they always are during falling rate. Right high levels of repayment speeds, which create high levels of decay or amortization of servicing rights. Also when looking at these third quarter results, we didn't have a multifamily loan sale, right. So you really need to look at both third and fourth quarters to get a realistic run rate going forward. 18:03 And as we mentioned, we've agreed to have a whole loan sale of multifamily loans in the fourth quarter at premiums that were sufficient to keep us from securitizing, so we're expecting that to be a strong loan sale.

Jeff Rulis

Analyst

18:22 Got you. And is the housekeeping item maybe John, what were the PPP balances at quarter end?

John Michel

Analyst

18:28 They were at seventy seven million dollars and the deferred fees were about two point five. Our expectations are, is that through the fourth quarter, we continued some forgiveness activity and then we don't expect anything materially to be affecting next year's results on the PPP side, be small benefit.

Mark Mason

Analyst

18:47 Got you.

John Michel

Analyst

18:48 Also…

Mark Mason

Analyst

18:49 Go ahead.

John Michel

Analyst

18:51 So I'll also just kind of to be on the revenue question, we believe that revenue loss is going to be made up by other revenue increases, primarily greater net interest income and all of these things together, we believe along with continuing repurchases that we are not going to see a diminution in earnings per share next year, right despite the broad estimates that exist in hand.

MarkMason

Analyst

19:26 Yeah. If you look at our numbers, our expectations because of the declining balances this year due to PPP loans, is not only do we expect our year over year balance to increase by ten percent to fifteen percent, but we expect our average balance of loans to increase by a similar level next year also?

Jeff Rulis

Analyst

19:46 And that ten percent to fifteen percent include the loans held for sale.

Mark Mason

Analyst

19:49 The ten percent to fifteen percent the loans held for sale tend, it would not include that from the perspective of going forward. The loans held for sale will kind of be more fluctuating and historically we've been pretty consistent because we have a loan sale on a quarterly basis. In the future that will be more fluctuating because we are going to necessarily do one on a quarterly basis going forward.

Mark Mason

Analyst

20:09 So right the ten percent to fifteen percent is just loans held for investment.

Jeff Rulis

Analyst

20:14 Okay. Got it. And the nineteen percent annualized loan growth in the quarter, would you include the held for sale? Please?

Mark Mason

Analyst

20:21 Yeah, we did include the held for, yes, because we did – if you look at the held for sale between the second quarter and the third quarter, there was a big jump because of reclassification so to get that annualized number, we did include all the loans. That's why we also included the loans for the whole year, and that run rate was nine percent That's why I want to make sure we're clarifying everybody what the growth is. But we have strong growth when you pull back PPP loans in terms of our overall portfolio.

Jeff Rulis

Analyst

20:45 Got you. Thanks for clarifying. I'll step back. Thank you.

Mark Mason

Analyst

20:49 Thanks, Jeff.

John Michel

Analyst

20:49 Thanks, Jeff.

Operator

Operator

20:54 [Operator Instructions] next question from Steve Moss from B. Riley Securities. Go ahead, please.

Steve Moss

Analyst

21:04 Hi good morning.

Mark Mason

Analyst

21:05 Hey, good morning.

John Michel

Analyst

21:06 Good morning, Steve.

Steve Moss

Analyst

21:08 Maybe just following up on loan pipeline being strong here. I hear you guys on multifamily originations, obviously, the kind of curious, you saw some growth here in the quarter and construction and even, other spots just kind of how you thinking about the mix in terms of the growth going forward?

Mark Mason

Analyst

21:28 We have a very strong pipeline, particularly in the commercial real estate area, the multifamily area. Obviously, in the single-family mortgage area we're coming into the seasonally lower volume period and the fourth quarter tends to be a period seasonally where you're drawing down the pipeline. So, we will exit the fourth quarter at least in the single-family area with a smaller pipeline than we enter. That may not be true in the commercial area, it still remains to be to be seen. Obviously loan rates continue to be attractive and in some areas like the Fannie Mae DUS area, recent changes in the lending caps for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac in the multifamily area. Have spurred great originations there. 22:27 The change in administration has been good for the agencies with respect to multifamily lending caps, those caps were increased about ten percent from twenty twenty one cap and the agencies have become much more competitive since those announcements. So we're expecting much stronger agency lending through the end of the year and at least next year.

Steve Moss

Analyst

22:55 And one other thing too is our single-family loans originated for portfolio have been strong this year and we continue to have pretty strong results next year, just the level of prepayments have been so high as last two and a half. Has been hard to keep pace with it. We expect with prepayments going down next year that we expect our single-family portfolio to continue to actually to start growing next year?

Mark Mason

Analyst

23:19 It's been right off since we downsize the business.

Steve Moss

Analyst

23:23 Right, right. Exactly. Okay. That's helpful. And then in terms of just loan pricing, kind of curious as to where rates are in terms of what's coming on the books these days versus what the rate of what is rolling off?

Mark Mason

Analyst

23:42 Well, I mean, that’s still, that condition hasn't changed, right? I mean loans that are prepaid or prepaying for a reason, right? And so let me see if I can give you some runoff note rates, in the aggregate in the third quarter. Let me pick up…

Steve Moss

Analyst

24:09 That's what we originate that.

Mark Mason

Analyst

24:12 Right. I'm looking for the runoff.

Steve Moss

Analyst

24:13 The runoff this year?

Mark Mason

Analyst

24:16 We ran loans off. Actually, it appears balanced, but it's not really. In total, we ran off loads at about a three thirty eight spread and replaced them with three thirty nine, but that's not true by category, right? If you look at, for example, single-family loans, the loans that prepaid were three point nine three percent and the loans we added are three point three six percent right. I mean, that puts a perspective what happens with runoff.

Steve Moss

Analyst

24:50 The one thing that's affecting this too is the PPP loans or some of the runoff we have. And so those loan rates were low at one right.

Mark Mason

Analyst

24:57 Right. That's what makes the aggregate low…

Steve Moss

Analyst

24:58 Yes.

Mark Mason

Analyst

24:58 But in the ongoing portfolios, the multifamily perm portfolio plus the non-residential CRE perm portfolio, we ran off at four point two one percent and we added at three two two, right. So, These trends continue. This is the same experience all of our peers are having. Fortunately, our funding costs, continue to fall and in the aggregate we believe we're able to maintain our core net interest margin.

Steve Moss

Analyst

25:34 Okay. That's helpful. And then, in terms of Mark you talk about capital deployment, going up twenty million dollars here, likely on the buyback. Just kind of, I take that to be your signaling, sustained profitability closer to this quarter's current level. Just kind of curious on how you guys are thinking about it, especially as we think about twenty twenty two?

Mark Mason

Analyst

26:01 Well, that's a great question. We have been fairly aggressive with our buyback program, though, we have been careful during the pandemic to structure our buyback program so that buybacks during the quarter have generally not exceeded what we've earned into the quarter in conjunction with dividends. So distributions if you will. 26:35And we were sensitive to that relationship as the pandemic has extended to return – to return – to maintain a somewhat higher level of capital then we would target in a normal course and going forward, as the pandemic across my fingers on this one, as the pandemic ends, it doesn’t extend, you may see us extend the buyback activity beyond current earnings in conjunction with dividends. That would have the impact of reducing our capital ratios somewhat. Not significantly, but little beyond on current levels, which means that relative to capital earnings, our buyback program maybe slightly elevated.

Steve Moss

Analyst

27:45 Okay. Great. That's helpful. Thank you very much.

Mark Mason

Analyst

27:51 Thank you, Steve.

John Michel

Analyst

27:53 Great. Thanks Steve.

Operator

Operator

27:58 This concludes our question-and-answer session. And I'd like to turn the call back over. It's the Mark Mason for final remarks, please go ahead, sir.

Mark Mason

Analyst

28:07 We appreciate Well, before we leave, we're looking at the queue. Does Jeff Rulis have another question, are we looking at the Queue. Operator, can you check?

Operator

Operator

28:23 One moment? Yes, so I'll get them back in. Give me a moment, please. All right, our next question will be from Jeff Rulis follow-up from D. A. Davidson. Please go ahead.

Jeff Rulis

Analyst

28:37 Sorry, guys. Not to hold everyone up, but just a quick question on the EPS being understated. I think a big piece of expectations might be at least year-over-year twenty one versus twenty two is on the provision year-to-date a nine million dollars recapture added. Are you excluding that in that conversation? Just wanted to kind of get your sense. And if you're including, I guess any expectations you have on the provision line for twenty two are relevant?

Mark Mason

Analyst

29:11 Great and thanks for asking that question. We are anticipating again absent changes in COVID related risk or our other credit risk. We are anticipating further drawdowns in our ACL next year. If we realize what I would consider a normal – a full normalization of that credit risk related to COVID next year, we would likely normalize our ACL levels or coverage levels if you will, which would anticipate us recovering the remainder of provisions we established against pandemic related risk offset by growth in the portfolio and whatever other adjustments we might feel are needed to adequately state our ACL in relation to obviously the new standards. But if you consider that we've had a growing composition of multifamily loans in our held for investment portfolio and that potential impact on the ACL, our ACL could end up at or slightly lower relatively to where we were pre-pandemic. 30:52 We have not had losses in multifamily loans as an institution as simple statement. And our relative credit risk when you consider our high composition of real estate related lending and the hard collateral conservatively underwritten comes with it. We have a lot of safety in our ACL coverage and so, our next year's comments do contain the assumption that we will recover all or substantially all of the pandemic related provisions from twenty twenty offset by portfolio growth.

Jeff Rulis

Analyst

31:41 Got it. So if you are growing loans ten percent to fifteen percent in twenty two, we could see continued drawdown of reserves in twenty two. So be it that the provision line is in that benefit versus an extent.

John Michel

Analyst

31:53 Yes. That's correct.

Jeff Rulis

Analyst

31:57 Okay. Thank you, guys.

Mark Mason

Analyst

31:58 You got it.

Operator

Operator

32:02 Thank you. That will conclude our question-and-answer session. We'll go to Mr. Mark Mason now for closing remarks. Thank you. Mark?

Mark Mason

Analyst

32:08 Thank you, operator. And thank you to everyone who joined us today for your attendance and patience in our prepared comments and the great Q&A. We look forward to talking to you next quarter.

Operator

Operator

32:24 Conference is now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.