Earnings Labs

Mechanics Bank (MCHB)

Q3 2018 Earnings Call· Tue, Oct 23, 2018

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good morning and welcome to the HomeStreet Third Quarter 2018 Earnings Conference Call. All participants will be in listen-only mode. [Operator Instructions] Please note this event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Mark Mason, CEO. Please go ahead, sir.

Mark Mason

Analyst · D.A. Davidson

Hello and thank you for joining us for our third quarter 2018 earnings call. Before we begin, I would like to remind you that our detailed earnings release was furnished yesterday to the SEC on Form 8-K and is available on our website at ir.homestreet.com under the News and Events link. In addition, a recording and a transcript of this call will be available at the same address following the call. On today’s call, we will make some forward-looking statements. Any statement that isn’t a description of historical facts is probably forward-looking and is subject to many risks and uncertainties. Our actual performance may fall short of our expectations or we may take actions different from those we currently anticipate. Those factors include conditions affecting the mortgage markets, such as changes in interest rates and housing supply that affect the demand for our mortgages and that impact our net interest margin and other aspects of our financial performance, the actions, findings, or requirements of our regulators and general economic conditions that affect our net interest margins, borrower credit performance, loan origination volumes and the value of mortgage servicing rights. Other factors that may cause actual results to differ from our expectations or that may cause us to deviate from our current plans are identified in our detailed earnings release and in our SEC filings, including our most recently filed quarterly report on Form 10-Q as well as our various other SEC filings. Additionally, information on any non-GAAP financial measures referenced in today’s call, including a reconciliation of those measures to GAAP measures maybe found in our SEC filings and in the detailed earnings release available on our website. Please refer to our detailed earnings release for more discussion of our financial condition and results of operations. Joining me today is…

Mark Ruh

Analyst · D.A. Davidson

Thank you, Mark. Good morning everyone and thank you again for joining us. I will first talk about our consolidated results and then provide detail on our two operating segments. Regarding our operating results, net income for the third quarter of ‘18 was $11.8 million or $0.44 per diluted share compared to $7.1 million or $0.26 per diluted share for the second quarter. Included in income for the third quarter of ‘18 was a total of $418,000 of restructuring and acquisition-related expenses net of tax. Excluding the impact of these charges, core net income for the third quarter was $12.3 million or $0.45 per diluted share compared to core net income of $12.5 million or $0.46 per diluted share for the second quarter. The decrease in core net income from the prior quarter was primarily due to lower non-interest income largely from higher net gain on loan origination and sale activities in our mortgage banking segment. This was primarily due to the impact of fewer loan origination personnel as a result of our second quarter restructuring as Mark previously discussed. Net interest income increased by $641,000 to $51.6 million in the third quarter from $51 million in the second. This increase in net interest income is primarily due to the higher balances of loan held for investments. Our third quarter net interest margin of 3.20% decreased from second quarter’s net interest margin of 3.2%. While our retail deposit bases have remained relatively low, our wholesale deposit and borrowing cost have continued to increase as the Federal Reserve continued to increase short-term interest rates. During the quarter, this increase in funding costs was partially offset by higher yields on our interest-earning assets. Non-interest expense excluding impact of restructuring-related expenses decreased to $94.1 million in the third quarter of ‘18 from $104.7…

Mark Mason

Analyst · D.A. Davidson

Thank you, Mark. Looking forward to the next two quarters in our mortgage banking segment, we currently anticipate single-family mortgage loan lock and forward sale commitment volume of $1.1 billion and $1.3 billion in the fourth quarter of this year and first quarter of next year respectively. We anticipate mortgage loan held-for-sale closing volumes of $1.2 billion and $1.1 billion for the same periods. For the full year of 2019, we anticipate single-family mortgage loan lock and forward sale commitments to total $5.7 billion and loan closing volume to total $5.8 billion. These volumes will be highly dependent on inventory levels of the housing markets in which we do business, local economic conditions affecting employment growth wages as well as prevailing interest rates. Reflecting the competitive pressures on gain-on-sale margins, we expect our mortgage composite profit margin to remain in the range of between 310 basis points and 320 basis points during the next two quarters as well as for the full year of 2019. In our commercial and consumer banking segment, we expect our quarterly loan portfolio growth to average between 2% and 4% for the fourth quarter this year and through 2019. Reflecting the yield curve as of the end of the third quarter and asset changes in market rates of loan prepayment speeds, we expect our consolidated net interest margin to remain in the range of 310 basis points to 320 basis points over the next two quarters and remaining within that range throughout 2019. During the fourth quarter, we expect our total core non-interest expense to decrease between 3% and 5% given seasonally lower closed single-family mortgage loan expectations and the ongoing impact of our streamline. Following that decrease, we expect non-interest expenses to increase as seasonal lending volume increases during the middle of 2019. For…

Operator

Operator

We will now begin the question-and-answer session. [Operator Instructions] And our first question will come from Jeff Rulis of D.A. Davidson.

Jeff Rulis

Analyst · D.A. Davidson

Good morning.

Mark Mason

Analyst · D.A. Davidson

Good morning, Jeff.

Jeff Rulis

Analyst · D.A. Davidson

I guess, Mark Mason, the question on your assumptions on the non-interest expense, what does that – what are the underlying assumptions on headcount in 2019?

Mark Mason

Analyst · D.A. Davidson

The headcount will increase slightly not in the mortgage banking area. That headcount is expected to be flat currently, but in the commercial and consumer banking area, we would be opening some additional branches and hiring some additional commercial lenders and those activities will result in some slight increase in headcount in the commercial and consumer banking.

Jeff Rulis

Analyst · D.A. Davidson

Thank you. And then just what were you looking at, well first question, restructuring costs those – are those now completed at least for this round that you have announced?

Mark Mason

Analyst · D.A. Davidson

Yes.

Jeff Rulis

Analyst · D.A. Davidson

Okay. And then is there something in your fiscal calendar or kind of a planning or budgeting period where additional restructuring would be analyzed if needed or is that more of an ongoing process?

Mark Mason

Analyst · D.A. Davidson

We do not have any planned restructuring currently. We continue to analyze opportunities to improve efficiency in all aspects of our business whether it be technology improvements, workflow improvements, real state occupancy and capacity improvements and we expect to have some improvements in many of those areas next year. We also look at strategy and are there ways to improve our strategy, which would improve our results not only over the long-term, but the short term. And so, I would never really say we finished and particularly given the challenging part of mortgage cycle is important that we continuously look to ways to improve those results.

Jeff Rulis

Analyst · D.A. Davidson

And maybe one quick one for Mark Ruh just on the tax rate, any thoughts on that’s kind of been bumping around in ‘18 but kind of what you expect for Q4 and then into ‘19?

Mark Ruh

Analyst · D.A. Davidson

I expect Q4 similar to what we have for Q3 based upon basically changes in our provisioning expenses. For 2019, I think, I discussed in the last call, it’s approximately 21% and I believe that, that’s going to be accurate or a good estimate for 2019 again 21% for 2019.

Jeff Rulis

Analyst · D.A. Davidson

Okay, thank you.

Operator

Operator

The next question will come from Tim O’Brien of Sandler O’Neill. Tim O’Brien: Good morning. Just one question on efficiency in the mortgage banking segment, obviously that ratio is pretty elevated, do you anticipate any improvement in that looking out into 2019. Is it possible that could come down below 100% or is it just reflective of the nature and challenges of the market right now and it’s going to take some market changes to improve that?

Mark Mason

Analyst · D.A. Davidson

We currently expect the mortgage banking segment to be profitable next year. I think that we made a lot of changes and it has several quarters in this year in the cost structure. And absent another meaningful decline in industry loan volume or a meaningful decline in our composite profit margin being the biggest factors. We expect this segment to be profitable. We don’t expect it to return to higher levels of profitability that we have experienced in more recent years though given the lower composite margin and lower volume we expect that profitability to – not nearly as significant, but we do expect it to be profitable. Tim O’Brien: Good. That’s good to hear. That’s I guess the product of all the work that you guys have gone through. Just shifting gears quickly to deposit betas, the margin kind of guidance that you gave for next year, does that include any assumptions of rate increases in the forward yield curve, some perspective in the forward yield curve?

Mark Mason

Analyst · D.A. Davidson

It does. We are not sure what the yield curve is going to look like and so making assumption solely based upon Federal Reserve increases without a commensurate assumption on the yield curve is kind of throwing dice. And so when we forecast, we are forecasting static changes or micro changes and so obviously depend upon which direction the yield curve changes could have a positive or negative impact on the margin. Tim O’Brien: Alright. Those are my questions. Thanks, guys.

Mark Mason

Analyst · D.A. Davidson

Thanks Tim.

Operator

Operator

And next we have a question from Jackie Bohlen of KBW.

Jackie Bohlen

Analyst · KBW

Sorry, I was muted. Good afternoon, everyone.

Mark Mason

Analyst · KBW

Hi, Jackie.

Jackie Bohlen

Analyst · KBW

Hi. Just a couple of questions on deposits kind of digging into some of the more micro trends there. Are you seeing any variance in terms of repricing betas, I know you mentioned that they've been holding the line from the retail segment, but just across geographies?

Mark Mason

Analyst · KBW

You know we're not really seeing different experience. Our geographies are generally larger metropolitan areas along the West Coast, very competitive deposit markets accordingly. And I don't know that we're seeing differences in geographic regions and then that includes the Hawaiian Islands, which is a strong savings region. It’s just become more competitive, so our betas grew up a little this year. Fortunately, it’s still below our loan beta and so we're able to do at least on the retail side maintain our spread. Where we’ve been hurt is wholesale borrowings.

Jackie Bohlen

Analyst · KBW

No, I understood. And what about deposits from commercial customers?

Mark Mason

Analyst · KBW

Yes. That's hard to generalize, right, when you think of all the different businesses. As we noted in the third quarter some of our larger commercial clients and think about title companies and alike drew down their deposits with decline in real estate activity, some of our other commercial clients had true seasonality in their cash flow patterns and so we had a headwind there in the quarter. But I think that basically we see strong cash flow at our commercial customers, some of which they leave with us and some of which they invest, but they are not borrowing as actively as we might have thought.

Jackie Bohlen

Analyst · KBW

Okay. And then just one last one on, obviously, credit remains very, very clean. Are there any categories or any areas that you look at that perhaps you're starting to watch a little bit more closely as rates have risen?

Mark Mason

Analyst · KBW

Yes. We are being substantially more careful about commercial construction, who we lend to, what types of projects, where they're located, in particular, multi-family construction, new lending has slowed at least for our part materially over the last couple of quarters as we’ve sought to restrict that business to very, very strong sponsors, who are end-users, not merchant builders, who have strong portfolio cash flow and liquidity should cost over-run or timelines to build construction and absorption lease extend, and both of those are true, right. I mean, we’ve seen many projects this year have construction cost over-runs and more elongated absorption periods. Fortunately, our underwriting and customer selection has been very strong. And those concerns which we knit into our underwriting have supported those additional timelines and costs and so we are being even more selective go not out of the market.

Jackie Bohlen

Analyst · KBW

Okay. Thank you. That's great color. I'll step back.

Operator

Operator

The next question will come from Tim Coffey of FIG Partners.

Tim Coffey

Analyst · FIG Partners

Great. Thank you. Good morning, Mark.

Mark Mason

Analyst · FIG Partners

Good morning, Tim.

Tim Coffey

Analyst · FIG Partners

You just – can you maybe provide a little bit more color on the seasonal outflows and deposits you saw this quarter, and maybe kind of – can you provide a little more detail on what made those seasonal?

Mark Mason

Analyst · FIG Partners

Sure. As I just mentioned in my answer to Jackie, part that was real estate-related. We do have several significant regional title companies, who are consistent with lower mortgage volume, lower home sales volume, they have lower transactional volume, right. So those temporary funds, right, closing real estate transactions have declined and pretty significantly, I mean, in the tens of millions of dollars each. We have other large commercial customers, who have seasonal cash flow and that unfortunately happens every year, it’s a little more acute this year.

Tim Coffey

Analyst · FIG Partners

Okay, right. And if we look at your loan-to-deposit ratio using just loans held for investment, that's up near 100%. Is that a level you're comfortable with given the current rate environment or do you see that coming down?

Mark Mason

Analyst · FIG Partners

We have been running about 90% on that calculation for a long time. And I think our prior discussion about the deposits has had an impact this quarter, right. We have had to supplement retail deposit growth or lack thereof this quarter with wholesale deposits despite an increase in the loan portfolio of 3% and that’s what’s really driving that, but we expect that to normalize back to around 90%.

Tim Coffey

Analyst · FIG Partners

Okay, okay. And then I don’t know if it was in the text of the prepared remarks, but you discussed the expectation of an eventual shake-out in the mortgage lending business, the industry that you compete in and the markets that you compete rather. Are you seeing any signs of that starting to happen or are your competitors still competing on by cutting fees?

Mark Mason

Analyst · FIG Partners

To this point, it’s anecdotal right. And we hear a lot of anecdotal stories of individual loan officers lead the industry, of course, some of that are our loan officers who are not performing that we are reducing headcount with. Also smaller mortgage brokers and mortgage bankers we think this quarter you will see more substantial reductions in capacity in that regard and through next quarter. This is the low part of the reason right and many who have been able to hang on through the summer and the fall will not be able to do so and we expect to see more movement here over the next 6 months.

Tim Coffey

Analyst · FIG Partners

Okay. And then with I think you – as Mark mentioned now 60 retail branches is that the right number for you or could you see that number going down?

Mark Mason

Analyst · FIG Partners

Retail deposit branches.

Tim Coffey

Analyst · FIG Partners

Yes, I am sorry, yes, retail deposit branches.

Mark Mason

Analyst · FIG Partners

We see that number increasing over time. We consolidated a couple of smaller branches in Eastern Washington that we have acquired or transitioned branches over the last couple of years. We have other branches that are de novo branches that both have been opened in the last several years that are on their expected growth path. And so while we may not yet have the level of deposits that we would like to see the mature branch, they are still on their expected slope of growth. This has been our strategy for the last 6 years and we expect that – we expect to continue that. Supplementing that is higher C&I related deposit growth. And so we think that our strategy has been a good one. It has resulted in an average deposit growth of 20% a year, the last 6 years. Some of that has been through M&A transactions, but the preponderance of it has been organic growth, which resulted in lower deposit betas in the industry and consistent growth and we think we are on the right track.

Tim Coffey

Analyst · FIG Partners

Okay, great. Well, thank you. Those are all my questions.

Mark Mason

Analyst · FIG Partners

Thanks Tim.

Operator

Operator

And the next question comes from Brian Rohman of Boston Partners.

Brian Rohman

Analyst · Boston Partners

Well, I had a question, but they have already been asked, so I won’t ask any. I will say it was a good serviceable quarter moving in the right direction guys.

Mark Mason

Analyst · Boston Partners

Thank you, Brian.

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] And this will conclude our question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to Mark Mason for any closing remarks.

Mark Mason

Analyst · D.A. Davidson

Thank you all for your patience and attention and attendance today on our third quarter call. We look forward to speaking with you again next January.

Operator

Operator

The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today’s presentation. You may now disconnect.