Charles E. Christmas
Analyst · Oppenheimer
There's a lot loaded in that question, Terry. But I don't have the specific numbers with me on the CD side. But there are definitely some repricing opportunities, both on the broker side as well as the local side, when it comes to maturities that are coming out. And also when we get into end of the first quarter. And during the second quarter, we've got some opportunities on our FHLB advances. They've got some pretty hefty rates on them as well. The volume and certainly the rate differentials aren't as great in magnitude as what we saw a couple of years ago or even especially in the last year. But there are definitely some opportunities there. Interestingly, right now, we're not doing any wholesale funding whatsoever. Every $0.01 that's maturing, we're just letting go as we continue to use the cash proceeds that are coming in on the loan paydowns as well as on some of the calls and mortgage-backed paydowns that we're getting in the investment portfolio. So you saw, I think, our fed funds average about $95 million in the third quarter. We're still endeavoring to get that down to about $50 million, at least that's how we look at that now. So the next $50 million or so, notwithstanding any cash flow coming in the asset side, we'll just continue to really just fund the maturities of wholesale funding and just let those liabilities go. And now at some point, we're going to have to start getting back into the game, probably late fourth quarter but certainly into the first quarter. And we're kind of have some of that peer refinance where we're letting 2% money go and replacing that with 50-basis-point money. But at least for the fourth quarter, it's pretty much letting those liabilities run off. As you know, there's a lot of stuff going on when you start talking about the margin, and some of it is more short term, some of it is long term. In my prepared remarks, as I mentioned, we are seeing our loan yield decline, probably averaging last -- end of the second quarter and throughout the third quarter, and it looks like at least the beginning of the fourth quarter, about 3 basis points a month in the loan yield. And some of that comes, as I mentioned -- our borrowers are getting stronger. And with that, they deserve an upgrade, which helps the provision. But they also, with the way that we price loans, means that they're going to get a better rate on loans. We did just the opposite over the last 2 to 3 years as they were -- -- as some of them were struggling. We downgraded them, and certainly we're increasing rates. So we see a little bit of reverse going on there. But a lot of that's kind of captured or at least replaced a few with a lower provision expense. There's no doubt that competition is becoming more keen, especially on the C&I side. It seems like everybody's comfortable on an overall basis with that part of the portfolio. And so while we're out there trying to gain new relationships, there's a lot of other company out there doing it as well. And certain banks are much more aggressive than really what we want to be. But that impacts not only bringing new business onto the books, but it also impacts existing business as some of those companies are being courted by our competitors. So that's kind of going which I think [ph] that's for short term as well as probably longer term into next year as far as what's going on to loan yield. It's really hard. I said it's about 3 basis points a month. Obviously, that's just historical. It's kind of hard to tell exactly what's going to go on in the near term, but we would certainly be expecting and budgeting for some level of decline on loan yields. Securities yields are also coming down. As I mentioned, we've gotten quite a bit of call activity into the third quarter and into the fourth quarter here as well. So far, we've done very little on the way of having to buy additional bonds. We're pretty well set right now on pledging requirements and on the overall size of the investment portfolio. So we're losing some -- I think the average rate's probably into the upper 3s, low 4s than what we're losing. So far, we haven't really had to replace some of that money going forward. If that activity continues, we'll have to replace some of it. And we'll be putting stuff on the books probably around 2%, and so that will have an impact. But having said all of that, as I mentioned, and as you've seen throughout this year, we have had a high level of fed funds. Like I said, we've kind of been targeting $50 million. We've certainly been a lot higher than that, again, because of the cash flow that's happening there. But certainly, as we get closer to that $50 million and as we continue to improve our overall condition, we think we'll probably bring that down in next year at some level. That will certainly help offset some of the declines in the loan yields and what's going on in the securities portfolio. On the liability side, we already kind of talked about wholesale funding. There are some cost-cutting opportunities there that we'll be able to enjoy. And on the local deposit side, we have, about mid-third quarter but also throughout the rest of the quarter and the beginning of the fourth quarter, we have had the opportunity to lower the deposit rates, especially on some of our non-maturing deposits. We're still aggressive. We're still very competitive. And we really haven't seen a significant amount of money leave the bank as a result of that. But I think really what happened when the fed came out with their announcement in July, and they really put that July of 2013 -- I think that's when they came out, July or August, and they put that July of '13 date on there. That really impacted the markets. We all saw that nationally. But it also impacted everything here locally as well. But we're able to take advantage of that opportunity. And yes, it impacts our asset yields, but it also has -- gave us the opportunity to reprice some of our deposit products as well. So overall, I think, we'll stay on a longer-term basis relatively steady. There is some pressure on asset yields. But there are some mitigating factors there with some fed funds, balance changes and then some cost of funds there as well. So long answer to your question, but obviously a lot going on.