Bonnie Lind
Analyst · CJS Securities
Thank you. Hello, everyone. We noted at the start of the call that there were adjusting items in the quarter with the two largest being a reduction to the Brattleboro impairment loss and a favorable adjustment related to the Coldenhove acquisition. In total, a pretext net benefit of 4.1 million in 2018 was excluded from adjusted earnings and this compared to added costs of 1 million in 2017 that were excluded. Today, I'll focus just on adjusted results and start with technical products. Sales of 130 million were up 3% in the quarter. Results benefited from a higher value mix of products sold with growth in digital transfer, security and transportation filtration grades and from higher selling prices. Volume was flat overall as growth in transportation filtration and in certain specialty grades offset lower sales in backings and other industrial products. Backings were challenged by slowing markets as well as integrated competitors during this period of extremely high pulp prices. Sales of technical products were also 2 million lower due to a weaker euro and on a constant currency basis, sales grew 4%. Technical products’ adjusted operating income of 6.1 million was down 5 million from a year ago. Pulp cost increases of 5 million were the highest of the year and results were also impacted by 3 million of higher manufacturing costs, largely due to fixed costs under absorption. As a reminder, we take our largest annual filtration maintenance down in October. This year, the plan down was slightly longer to complete an environmental compliance project and we took added downtime to match year end customer demand. These added costs were only partly offset by benefits in the quarter from higher selling prices and the more profitable mix. Turning next to fine paper and packaging, revenues of 106 million were down 5%. This was primarily due to 4% lower volumes, as growth in consumer sales was more than offset by decline in commercial print grade and weaker performance in packaging. As John noted, our highest value grades are pressured when pulp prices are high and lower price papers from integrated competitors become more attractive. Revenues also reflected higher selling prices, including a price increase implemented in the fourth quarter, so these higher prices were largely offset by a lower value mix in the quarter. Adjusted operating income of 11 million was down 3 million from 14 million last year. In addition to mix, income fell due to 6 million of higher input costs that were only partially offset by benefits from the higher selling prices and improved manufacturing efficiencies. Before turning to corporate items, I'd like to review segment reporting following the Brattleboro mill sale. In 2018, sales from this facility were about $30 million. So in 2019, our consolidated revenues will be reduced by this amount. 24 million of the sales change will come out of fine paper and packaging and the remaining 6 million out of other. As the other segment has now become immaterial, we will eliminate it and reclass 16 million of its remaining sales into technical products. While the sale reduced revenues, profit will increase as we eliminated its losses and reduced excess fine paper capacity. This profit improvement is estimated 5 million annually. However, in 2019, the year-on-year impact will be less since we were able to recognize over $1 million of benefit in the second half of 2018 from lower depreciation expense. Moving on to consolidated results, SG&A expense was 20.3 million, down from 24.9 million in 2017. The decrease was largely due to reduction in incentive recalls as well as lower overall spending. Adjusted unallocated corporate SG&A of 3.1 million was down from 4.5 million in the prior year for similar reasons. Both SG&A and unallocated costs were well below our respective quarterly spending guidance of 26 million for SG&A and 5 million for unallocated corporate costs. We do expect to be back in line with these levels in 2019. Quarterly interest expense was $3.2 million in both periods. Lower debt levels in 2018 were offset by slightly higher borrowing rates, as rates tailed off at the end of 2017 and they've been rising in the second half of 2018. We continue to expect our consolidated tax rate to be approximately 22%. In the fourth quarter of 2018, the rate was 12% and benefited from a change in Dutch tax law that will reduce rates from 25% to 20.5% by 2022. This change required us to re-measure deferred tax liabilities at Neenah Coldenhove and resulted in nearly $700000 of lower tax expense, an amount excluded from adjusted earnings. In 2017, our large negative tax rate resulted from actions taken to accelerate deductions and re-measure US deferred liabilities following passage of the Tax Cut and Jobs Act. Our cash tax rate is expected to be in mid-teens for the next few years, as we consume prior period R&D credits. This rate is higher than previous guidance as our projected pretax income and mix between jurisdictions shifted with the sale of Brattleboro and other factors, however, while the rate is higher, the amount of R&D credits didn't change. So it will just last a bit longer. After these credits are fully consumed, our cash tax rate will start to converge with our booked tax rate. As mentioned on our last call, we accelerated about 6 million of planned 2019 pension contributions into the third quarter to generate incremental tax savings and made no contributions in the fourth quarter. Consequently, cash spending in the fourth quarter was about 7 million from the prior year. For the full year, total post-employment benefit plan outlays were 23 million. In 2019, cash payments will drop down to around 16 million and our pension expense will increase by 2 million. Cash payments in 2019 are expected to feed expense by 3 million. Total cash generated from operations in the quarter was a really strong 29 million, over 10 million more than prior year. Our reduced investment in working capital as we manage our inventories as well as the change in timing of pension contributions, more than offset the lower operating earnings. Capital spending of 10 million was down from 15 million in the fourth quarter of 2017 and full year spending of 38 million also declined 5 million. Spending in both years was right around the middle of our targeted spending range of 3% to 5% of net sales. In 2019, we expect to remain in this range with total spending below 40 million, of which sustaining capital is only 15 million. The remaining 60% of the spending is targeted for projects that will deliver attractive financial returns. And moving onto our balance sheet, debt declined more than 10 million in the quarter and cash increased by almost 2 million, with year-end debt of 239 million, down from 255 million at the start of the year, our balance sheet is strong and our debt to EBITDA ratio remains under 2 times. That is comprised of 175 million US bonds due in 2021 and the remainder in short term borrowings, primarily against our revolving credit facility. I'm pleased to note that during the fourth quarter, we renegotiated this global revolving credit facility. The total aggregate commitment was increased from 200 million to 225 million and the term was extended through 2023. In addition, we reduced the interest rate spread on borrowings by 25 basis points and amended terms to provide more flexibility. As of year end, we had just under 58 million drawn against this facility at an average interest rate for the quarter of 3% and had over 150 million of additional capacity readily available. While faced with some large headwinds in 2018, we remain financially strong with a conservative balance sheet and businesses that continue to generate substantial cash flows. I believe the recent favorable changes we were able to make to what revolver reflect the credit markets confidence in the future of Neenah. With that, I'll turn it back to you John to discuss our 2019 outlook.
John O’Donnell: Thank you, Bonnie. I'd like to start with a couple of big picture comments if I could. First, due to announced pricing activities, moderating input costs and our significant cost reduction focus, I certainly expect profits to increase meaningfully from where we ended the second half of 2018. What will be different in 2019 however is that the year-on-year comparison and distribution of profits will vary from what's been typical for us. Normally, we'd expect the majority of profits to occur in the first half of the year and in 2018, this represented two-thirds of the total year. In 2019, this is likely to be more balanced for reasons I'll talk about next. Consequently, year on year comparisons will undoubtedly be more challenging early in the year and look much better in the second half. Next, I’ll cover expected impacts from key external factors and then wrap up with actions and initiatives underway. I mentioned in early November that we were starting to sense more uncertainty in global demand. This ultimately contributed to lower shipments and inventory de-stocking by customers in the fourth quarter. Economies in Western Europe and Asia have slowed and while most of our fine paper businesses in North America, approximately 60% of technical products and 20% of the packaging sales are overseas. So as we enter 2019, volumes across our businesses are likely to be lighter early in the year, especially compared to a very strong first quarter in 2018. We expect our top line to grow for the full year in 2019, as increases in our businesses more than offset a 3% decline from the divestiture of Brattleboro. Our largest currency exposure is the euro. Forecasts reflect a weaker euro in 2019 and down significantly in the first half. A weaker euro is unfavorable for us and currently, the currency is 115 compared with 123 in the first quarter of last year. We've sized sensitivities in our press release and this $0.10 differential would reduce quarterly sales by around $5 million and EBIT by $1 million or $0.05 a share. The biggest issue for most companies in our industry has been the steep and prolonged rise in pulp and input costs. For us, this represented a $33 million hurricane force headwind in 2018, the largest in our history. While I'm not in the business of forecasting pulp prices, after 11 consecutive months of increases, it does appear prices have peaked and we're finally seeing them start to decline. Since about half of our pulp contracts have pricing on a quarterly lag, we will begin to see the benefit of these lower prices starting in the second quarter. While pulp costs are declining, they're still projected to be higher in the full year 2019 than they were in 2018. We’re currently estimating 10 million to 15 million of higher costs with most of the negative impact occurring in the first half of the year. Our teams are responding to these record costs through significant pricing activities as I mentioned earlier. We successfully overcame two-thirds of higher input costs in 2018 and with these past actions and recent announcement, we expect to offset incremental costs in 2019 as well as recover what we didn't overcome last year. This will help contribute to improved margins, especially in the back half of the year. We're continuing to focus on growing in targeted categories like filtration and premium packaging and digital transfer as we work to increase the overall organic growth rate of Neenah and we'll look to complement those efforts with value adding M&A. Along with these top line activities, we remain extremely focused on cost and asset optimization across all businesses and in all areas of spending. I talked earlier about a clear example in the recent sale of our Vermont facility. We also continue managing cost and capacity with demand variability and have numerous cost savings projects that we execute each year. We're prioritizing those efforts that generate the greatest cost savings, both capital and non-capital and as Bonnie mentioned, about 60% of our capital in 2019 is directed to projects that will generate attractive financial savings. In closing, while 2018 ended on a difficult note, our business strategies and capital deployment priorities remain sound and focused on Neenah’s long term success. Our financial strength supports ongoing investment in our businesses, as we work with customers to meet their evolving needs and allows us to provide meaningful direct cash returns to shareholders. Most importantly, I feel confident that we've got the people and the capabilities in place to execute these strategies and drive that our shareholders expect. I look forward to sharing our progress with you in the coming year and thank you for your time today. I’ll now open the call for questions.