Joe Euteneuer
Analyst · UBS. Your line is open
Thank you, Ynon, and good afternoon everyone. I would like to provide more detail on the fourth quarter results and summarize the full year performance before moving on to our 2020 full year guidance. As Ynon said we did very well in 2019 and exceeded our guidance significantly improving profitability and stabilizing the top line. We performed well in the fourth quarter and grew market share in this highly competitive period. For the year gross sales were flat as reported and up 2% in constant currency and as expected gross sales for the quarter were down 3% as reported and down 2% in constant currency. Turning to POS, excluding TRU for both the quarter and full year, total Mattel worldwide POS was flat. To give you a little more color on POS for our power brands, I'd like to share the following highlights. Barbie POS was up high single digits in the quarter and double digits for the year. In North America, Barbie POS was up low single digits in the quarter and up high single digits for the year. Meanwhile, internationally Barbie POS was up double digits in the quarter and up double digits for the year. This marked the 15th consecutive quarter of international POS growth for Barbie. Hot Wheels global POS was up double digits in the quarter and up high single digits in the year. In North America, Hot Wheels POS was up double digits in the quarter and up mid single digits for the year. Internationally, Hot Wheels POS was up double digits in the quarter and up double digits for the year. This marked more than 15 consecutive quarters of international POS growth for Hot Wheels. Fisher-Price core global POS was flat in the quarter and down high single digits for the year. In North America, Fisher-Price core POS was up low-single digits in the quarter and down high-single digits for the year. We are encouraged by the improved performance in the fourth quarter compared to the first three quarters. And internationally Fisher-Price core POS was down low-single digits in the quarter and down mid-single digits for the year. Moving on to retail inventory, compared to the prior year, retail inventories were higher. We expect this could have up to a mid-single digit impact to our first quarter sales. We believe that this inventory consists of healthy carry forward product. The expected impact to the first quarter sales has been reflected in our full year revenue guidance that we will talk about shortly. Fourth quarter reported gross margin was 48.4% of net sales, an increase of 180 basis points versus the prior year. Adjusted gross margin was 48.9% of net sales, an increase of 230 basis points versus the prior year. For the full year, reported gross margin was 44%, an increase of 420 basis points versus the prior year. Adjusted gross margin was 44.9%, an increase of 480 basis points versus the prior year. These significant improvements in reported and adjusted gross margin for the quarter and full year are directly attributable to Structural Simplification and accelerated savings from capital light, partially offset by product cost inflation. Moving onto advertising, fourth quarter advertising expenses totaled $227 million or 15.4% of net sales. This compares to 13.5% in the year ago period. The year-over-year increase was due to strategic advertising investments in the quarter, as we discussed on the third quarter call. For the full year, advertising expenses were $552 million, or 12.2% of net sales in line with our guidance. Reported SG&A for the quarter was $418 million, an increase of $20 million versus the prior year. The increase was primarily driven by a $26 million asset impairment charge and higher merit expenses, partially offset by Structural Simplification savings. The asset impairment was a non-cash charge related to the continued declining performance of our American Girl retail stores albeit at a slower rate of decline. We also incurred an additional $3 million of expenses associated with the inclined sleeper product recalls in the quarter. For the year, we incurred $10 million of recall related expenses in SG&A and a total of $38 million across the P&L, before taking into consideration the $30 million to $35 million of revenue reduction. Adjusted SG&A for the quarter was $384 million, a decrease of $9 million versus the year ago period. Structural Simplification savings were partially offset by higher merit and other in period expenses. For the year, reported SG&A was $1.4 billion, a $119 million decrease versus the prior year. The decrease was driven by Structural Simplification savings, lower severance and restructuring expenses, and the absence of the 2018 TRU liquidation. These were partially offset by higher incentive and merit expenses, asset impairment charges, and recall related expenses. Adjusted SG&A for the year was $1.3 billion, a decrease of $86 million versus the prior year. Similar to the fourth quarter, Structural Simplification savings and the absence of the 2018 TRU liquidation were partially offset by higher incentive and merit expenses and other in period expenses. For the quarter, reported operating income was $68 million, a decrease of $38 million versus the prior year. This decrease was due to lower sales and higher advertising and SG&A expenses partially offset by gross margin improvements. Adjusted operating income for the quarter was $109 million, a decrease of $2 million versus the prior year due to lower sales and higher advertising expenses, partially offset by gross margin improvements and lower SG&A expenses; and for the full year reported operating income improved by $274 million to $39 million compared to last year's reported operating loss of $234 million. Adjusted operating income for the full year improved by $269 million to $156 million compared to last year's adjusted operating loss of $113 million. For the year, the increases has been reported and adjusted operating income were primarily driven by higher gross margin and lower SG&A expenses, partially offset by higher advertising expense. For the quarter, adjusted EBITDA was $185 million flat to the prior year. Structural Simplification and capital light savings were offset by higher strategic investments, lower scales, product costs inflation and other SG&A expenses. For the full year, adjusted EBITDA was $453 million. A significant improvement more than doubling last year's adjusted EBITDA of $200 million. Structural Simplification and capitalized savings and the absence of the 2018 TRU liquidation were partially offset by product cost deflation, strategic investments, higher incentive compensation and merit expenses. Moving to taxes, last year, we discussed the challenge and estimating our full year tax expense, given the changes in the U.S. and global tax laws and the impact of valuation allowances primarily against U.S. deferred tax assets. In 2019, we benefited from favorable discreet one-time tax items including the release of foreign valuation allowances and the reassessment of certain tax liabilities. As a result, our 2019 tax provision was much lower than anticipated with $9 million booked in the quarter and $55 million booked for the year. Please note that going forward our overall effective tax rate may vary significantly from quarter to quarter due to the level and mix of income or losses in our foreign jurisdictions and due to the full valuation allowance on our U S deferred tax assets. In terms of cash flow and balance sheet as Ynon said the main highlight for the year is that we achieve positive free cash flow for the first time since 2016, improving by $244 million versus the prior year. Operating cash also ended the year positive, finishing at $181 million or an improvement of $208 million. Additionally, net accounts receivable held steady at 57 days sales outstanding, which is flat versus last year. Owned inventory continued to decrease down $47 million versus the prior year. We continue to work to optimize inventory levels with our retail partners. And capital expenditures, which totaled the $116 million for the year, decreased 24% compared to $152 million last year, primarily as a result of reduced tooling costs. These savings were achieved while still investing in the business. We ended the quarter with no short-term borrowings under our ABL credit facility, and finally our previously announced refinancing of our two debt maturities and the extension of our ABL maturity date, significantly improved our near-term liquidity giving us additional financial flexibility going forward. Our next step maturity is now not until 2023. The primary reason for our significant improvement and profitability has been the success of our Structural Simplification program, and while we have concluded the program. We will continue to make progress and reshaping our operations and benefit from the run rate savings realized to date and going forward. For the year, we realized $366 million of P&L savings with $333 million of debt reflected in our adjusted EBITDA. Over the two year program, we delivered $875 million in run rate savings, $225 million more than our original goal and $21 million more than the $854 million of run rate savings, we reported on our third quarter call. In 2019, we accelerated the execution of a portion of the capital light program and realized $15 million of savings in the 2019 P&L. We will continue to share key developments as they are executed subject to competitive and confidentiality considerations. In the fourth quarter, we continue to make strategic investments to grow the business and improve future profitability. For the full year, we invested $88 million of which $63 million or 73% impacted operating expenses with the remainder as CapEx. Investments in the quarter were primarily related to advertising investments and IT transformation initiatives. Over the two year program, we invested $151 million out of a target of $170 million on strategic investments. This was approximately split 35% on IT investments, 15% on digital advertising, 15% on local business investments and the remaining 35% on other investments such as product innovation and content development. Closing out my 2019 remarks, it is clear that we've made substantial progress across all key financial metrics, and we expect this momentum to continue into 2020. Before we move on to 2020 guidance, given the dynamic circumstances of the coronavirus, please note that the guidance we are going to share with you today excludes any potential impact of the coronavirus on our results. Now turning to our 2020 guidance, for the full year, we expect gross sales as reported to grow 1% to 2.5% including a minor foreign exchange impact, margins to expand as we continue to reshape our operations and benefit from our Structural Simplification and capital light programs, adjusted EBITDA to grow to an expected range of $575 million to $600 million, and operating and free cash flow to continue to grow along with our cash balance. Let me provide some more detail on our 2020 guidance assumptions. The 1% to 2.5% sales increase is driven primarily by mid single digit growth in our own brands, partially offset by declines in licensed brands. At a higher level, our category assumptions in constant currency are as follows. We expect continued growth in the Dolls category, driven primarily by Barbie as the brand continues to innovate and build momentum globally coming off the 60th anniversary. We are planning to expand the rest of our Doll portfolio with a number of new offerings throughout the year. The growth in the category is forecasted to be partially offset by American Girl. We are looking to reduce the rate of revenue decline at American Girl in 2020 as we continue to turn the business around. We expect continued growth in the vehicles category driven primarily by hot wheels, momentum as well as matchbox, which should benefit from this year's Top Gun Maverick, Die-Cast license. The growth in the category is projected to be partially offset by declines in entertainment licenses. We expect the Infant, Toddler and Preschool category to be down slightly versus the prior year Fisher-Price Thomas and Friends is forecasted to be up driven by growth in Fisher-Price core, the largest component of the entire category. This is expected to be partially offset by a smaller decline in Thomas. Fisher-Price Friends is planned to continue to decline as we choose to exit underperforming licenses within the portfolio, and we expect our combined Action Figures, Building Sets and games categories to be down slightly. We anticipate Action Figures to be down as a result of Toy Story 4, moving further away from its theatrical release and the end of our DC Action Figure license, offset partially by growth from Minions and Minecraft. We expect to see solid growth in Building Sets as we continue to refine and innovate the line architecture, optimize pricing and continue to expand our global retail distribution. Game is forecasted to be up as we innovate and introduce new games and continue to leverage our existing portfolio. And finally, we will be launching our plush business within this challenger category with licenses for Minions, Disney, Pixar, and Star Wars, including the much anticipated Baby Yoda. Turning to the rest of the P&L, sales adjustments are forecast to be in line with the prior year on a percentage basis. We expect adjusted gross margin for the full year to be 150 to 200 basis points higher than the full year of 2019. This improvement will be driven primarily by realization of the remaining run rate savings from our Structural Simplification program and incremental savings from our capital light program as well as a reduction royalty expenses. These benefits will be partially offset by product cost inflation of about a 100 basis points and the negative impact of foreign exchange. Advertising expenses are expected to be flat as a percentage of net sales versus the prior year and within our normalized range of 11% to 13% Adjusted SG&A is projected to be lower year-over-year by approximately $30 million to $50 million. The primary drivers of the year-over-year improvement are the realization of the remaining run rate savings from our Structural Simplification program, as well as lower planned incentive compensation. As we reset our operational performance targets for 2020 these favorable impacts will be partially offset by annual merit and benefit increases, along with general inflation. With expected revenue growth, margin expansion, and lower SG&A expenses, we forecast adjusted operating income for the full year to significantly improve versus the prior year. Looking below operating income, we expect interest expense to be relatively flat to 2019. Tax expense for the year is expected to be approximately $75 million to $100 million, reflecting better operational performance and assuming no discrete tax items compared to 2019. In order to help build your as reported models, let me provide the following information. Depreciation and amortization is expected to decrease as a result of our Structural Simplification and capitalized efforts over the past few years. Share-based compensation is also expected to decrease to approximately $50 million. Severance and restructuring expenses are planned to be roughly flat at $60 million, as we continue to reshape our operations. Costs related to our 2019 inclined sleeper product recalls will be included in adjustments between EBITDA and adjusted EBITDA, which is consistent with last year. In summary, we expect our adjusted EBITDA to increase from $453 million in 2019 to range of $575 million to $600 million in 2020. The primary drivers are the realization of $92 million of carryover structural simplification savings from 2019, approximately $50 million of capital light savings as well as revenue growth and lower incentive expenses, partially offset by inflation increases, merit expenses and the negative impact of foreign exchange. This marks a significant increase over 2019 and another indication of our commitment to restore profitability. Turning to the balance sheet and cash flows, capital expenditures are forecasted to be up year-over-year. We expect networking capital to be roughly flat compared to 2019, and we expect operating cash flows to continue to improve and we project a second consecutive year of positive free cash flow. This increasing cash generation will improve our financial standing, including strengthening the balance sheet, improving our leverage ratios and giving us additional financial flexibility. You should consider the following factors that will impact quarterly phasing of expenses, but will not impact for your guidance, starting with advertising expenses. As a result of a system implementation to track advertising at a greater level of detail during the interim periods, we have improved visibility into the anticipated timing of advertising expense. As a result, we expect to see a moderate shift in advertising expense to the second half of the year from the first half of the year. Incentive compensation is planned to be lower in 2020. As we have in prior years, we will continue to adjust the incentive accrual each quarter based on our expected performance for the full year. Given our more consistent results in the past few years, this may result in a higher accrual during the first two quarters. As a result, we expect to see an increase in SG&A of approximately $15 million to $20 million in the first and second quarter due to this change but lower overall for the full year. Additionally, you should consider the following factors that will impact the quarterly phasing of our 1% to 2.5% full year revenue growth. As I mentioned before, the increase in our retail inventories could have up to a mid-single digit impact to our first quarter sales, but the full year impact has already been reflected in our full year revenue guidance. We also have a later theatrical release date for the Minions movie compared to last year's Toy Story 4, which is expected to decline post its theatrical release year. I want to reiterate that the guidance we just provided excludes any potential business impact of the coronavirus. With that said, here's what we currently know. While consumer sales in China are currently being impacted, given that our in-country revenues represented only 2% of total Mattel revenues in 2019 the potential impact of loss China consumer sales on the Company should be limited. As it relates to our supply chain while none of our manufacturing is located in the Wuhan province the ability of the manufacturing workforce to return to work after the lunar new year holiday is being impacted by government guidelines. Mattel's factories, and those are third party vendors were originally scheduled to resume production on February 3rd, currently manufacturers are being advised to not resume production until February 17th. At this point in time, we do expect production delays in Q1, which may impact first quarter results, but remember that historically Q1 is a seasonally small quarter for both production and revenue. We haven't placed a global team that is actively working on contingency plans to mitigate the potential impact to our supply chain, customers and employees. We are taking steps to minimize this disruption including resourcing priority SKUs, balancing owned inventory across geographies, and optimizing transportation. The full magnitude of the impact of the coronavirus on our full year results will be primarily determined by the duration of the outbreak. We will continue to assess this fluid situation and update you as appropriate. In closing, in 2019, our methodical execution of our strategy to restore profitability generated significant improvements across key metrics, including margins, operating income, EBITDA and cash flows. Our 2020 guidance reflects a continuation of these improvements. We are extremely pleased with our results to-date and are very proud of the efforts made by the Mattel team. With that, I'll turn it back over to Ynon.