Richard Westenberg
Analyst · Evercore ISI
Thank you, Jon, and good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining. As Robin mentioned, my comments today will focus on adjusted performance, excluding the impact of rationalization charges and other onetime items. Turning to Slide 8. Sales in the third quarter decreased 3% or 2% excluding the impact of our divestiture of Kichler and favorable currency. Our divestiture of Kichler in the third quarter of 2024 resulted in a decrease in sales by 3% year-over-year in the third quarter of 2025, while currency represented a 1% increase in sales. In local currency, North American sales decreased 6% or 2% excluding the divestiture impact. International sales were in line with the prior year in local currency. Gross margin of 34.6% in the quarter was impacted by higher tariffs and commodity costs. SG&A decreased $16 million, primarily due to our divestiture. SG&A as a percent of sales improved 20 basis points to 18.4% in the quarter. Operating profit was $312 million in the quarter, and our margin was 16.3%. Operating profit was impacted by lower volume and higher costs, primarily related to tariffs, commodities and inventory-related reserves. Note that the temporarily elevated tariffs of 145% on China imports added approximately $15 million to the overall tariff impact in the third quarter, primarily in the Plumbing segment. These impacts were partially offset by pricing actions and cost savings initiatives. Our EPS was $0.97 per share in the quarter. Turning to Slide 9. Plumbing sales increased 2% in the third quarter or 1% excluding the favorable impact of currency. This growth was largely driven by pricing, which increased sales by 3%, partially offset by lower volume. In local currency, North American plumbing sales increased 1% in the quarter. This performance was primarily driven by Delta Faucet, which delivered growth in both the e-commerce and trade channels. In local currency, international plumbing sales were in line with the prior year. Hansgrohe continued to see growth in many of its European markets, including its key market of Germany. This growth was offset primarily due to an increasingly challenging market in China. Segment operating profit in the third quarter was $204 million, and operating margin was 16.4% Operating profit was impacted by lower volume and higher costs such as tariffs, commodities and inventory-related reserves, partially offset by pricing actions and cost savings initiatives. Turning to Slide 10. Decorative Architectural sales decreased 12% in the third quarter or 6% excluding the divestiture of Kichler. Performance in the quarter was driven by lower volume in our paint business as well as our builders hardware business, which also was unfavorably impacted by timing of shipments. In the quarter, total paint sales decreased low single digits due to lower volume. PRO Paint sales were up low single digits and DIY Paint sales decreased mid-single digits. Given the persistent softness in the overall DIY paint market and the favorable inventory timing we experienced in the fourth quarter of last year, we continue to anticipate our total paint sales for the full year to decrease mid-single digits. Excluding the impact of the prior year inventory timing benefit, we would anticipate full year DIY Paint sales to decrease high single digits. In our PRO Paint business, we continue to expect sales to increase mid-single digits for the full year. Operating profit in the third quarter was $128 million, primarily impacted by lower volume, partially offset by cost savings initiatives. Operating profit margin increased 100 basis points to 19.1%. Turning to Slide 11. Our balance sheet remains strong with gross debt to EBITDA at 2x at quarter end. We ended the quarter with $1.6 billion of liquidity, including cash and availability under our revolving credit facility. Working capital was 18.5% of sales at quarter end. Working capital continues to be impacted by tariff-related dynamics, including higher material costs and pricing, increasing our working capital balances. Given our strong cash generation, we returned $188 million to shareholders in the third quarter through dividends and share repurchases, including the repurchase of $124 million in stock. As it relates to capital allocation, we now expect to deploy approximately $500 million towards share repurchases or acquisitions in 2025, slightly higher than our previous expectation of at least $450 million. This increase is driven by a cash tax benefit from the recently enacted tax legislation. Now let's turn to Slide 12 and review our full year outlook. The market environment remains volatile and tariff uncertainty persists. The guidance that is being provided today includes the impact of currently enacted tariffs in effect in October, which now includes new tariffs on copper, antidumping duties on glass and increases to global reciprocal tariffs, particularly on Vietnam, Thailand and the European Union. As a result of these additional tariffs, we now estimate that the total annualized cost impact of all incremental tariffs enacted this year to be approximately $270 million before mitigation, up from $210 million as of our second quarter earnings call. Of the $270 million annualized cost impact, approximately $140 million continues to be related to the incremental 30% China tariffs. And the remaining $130 million is driven by the global reciprocal tariffs, the 50% tariff on steel, aluminum and copper and the glass antidumping duties. Of this approximately $270 million total annual cost, we expect a 2025 in-year impact of approximately $150 million before mitigation, up from $140 million as of our second quarter call. Our teams continue to actively work to mitigate these additional costs through a combination of levers. These include cost reductions, continued efforts to change our sourcing footprint and pricing where necessary. We anticipate that these mitigation actions will mostly offset the direct cost impact of the currently enacted tariffs in 2025. It is important to note that our guidance does not attempt to estimate the impact of potential future tariffs or any changes in existing tariffs. Turning to the overall market. Our expectation continues to be that the U.S. and international repair and remodel markets will decrease low single digits in 2025. For Masco, we expect our sales in 2025 to decrease low single digits, impacted by the 2024 divestiture of Kichler, which will reduce sales by approximately 2% year-over-year. We anticipate currency will have a favorable impact of approximately 1%. Excluding the impact of our divestiture and currency, we now anticipate Masco's overall sales to be down low single digits versus our prior guidance of roughly flat year-over-year, given continued industry softness with lower volumes partially offset with pricing. As a reminder, fourth quarter sales will face a challenging year-over-year comparison due to the favorable inventory timing impact we experienced in our paint business in the fourth quarter of last year. We now anticipate total company operating margin to be approximately 16.5% in 2025 versus our previous guide of 17%, driven by slightly lower volume, impact of additional tariffs and higher costs. In our Plumbing segment, we continue to expect 2025 full year sales to be up low single digits. We now anticipate the full year Plumbing margin will be approximately 18% versus our previous guide of 18.5%. In our Decorative Architectural segment, we continue to expect 2025 sales to decrease low double digits or mid-single digits, excluding the impact of our divestiture. We also continue to anticipate the full year Decorative Architectural margin to be approximately 18%. Finally, as Jon mentioned earlier, our 2025 EPS estimate is $3.90 to $3.95 per share. This continues to assume a 211 million average diluted share count for the year and a 24.5% effective tax rate. With that, I would like to open up the call for questions. Operator?