Operator
Operator
Good morning, and welcome to Marriott International's Fourth Quarter 2014 Earnings Conference Call. At this time, all participants have been placed in a listen-only mode and the floor will be opened for your questions following the presentation. It is now my pleasure to turn the floor over to Arne Sorenson, President and Chief Executive Officer. Sir, you may begin. Arne M. Sorenson - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Good morning, everyone. Welcome to our fourth quarter 2014 earnings conference call. Joining me today are Carl Berquist, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer; Laura Paugh, Senior Vice President, Investor Relations; and Betsy Dahm, Senior Director, Investor Relations. As always, before we get into the discussion of our results, let me first remind everyone that many of our comments today are not historical facts and are considered forward-looking statements under Federal Securities laws. These statements are subject to numerous risks and uncertainties as described in our SEC filings, which could cause future results to differ materially from those expressed in or implied by our comments. Forward-looking statements in the press release that we issued last night, along with our comments today, are effective only today, February 19, 2015, and will not be updated as actual events unfold. You can find a reconciliation of non-GAAP financial measures referred to in our remarks on our website at www.marriott.com/investor. 2014 was a terrific year for Marriott. Worldwide comparable system-wide RevPAR rose nearly 7%, adjusted EBITDA rose 15%, and EPS increased 27%. The number of rooms in our lodging system grew by 7% gross. Over half of these new room openings were outside North America, and over 40% were conversions from competitor brands or were M&A related. Our room signings were even more impressive. We signed over 650 hotels with 100,000 new rooms in the year, more than triple the pace from five years ago, and we ended the year with nearly 240,000 rooms in our development pipeline. Every region, North America, the Caribbean and Latin America, Europe, the Middle East and Africa, and Asia Pacific each signed a record number of deals during the year, positioning us for great earnings growth in the future. Our Development team led by Tony Capuano did an extraordinary job, and we thank them all. With our talented developers and the rising demand and limited supply macro story has certainly contributed to our recent growth. Our success in 2014 was also rooted in a number of strategic decisions we made following the 2009 downturn. First and foremost, we chose to decentralize, putting important business decisions in the hands of competent executives who are close to the customer and the local market. Deep knowledge of the Middle East and Africa region enabled us to quickly seize the opportunity presented by the Protea brand. In the Asia Pacific region, our strong relationships with local owners allowed our Regional Development team to sign an extraordinary number of deals in just a few years. And in Europe, our local presence enabled us to find the right entry to the economy tier with the Moxy brand. Around the world, we increased the number of brand platforms available for owners and franchisees, adding five brands in as many years, developing the Autograph and Moxy brands internally, and acquiring AC Hotels, Gaylord and Protea, all of which helped fuel our unit growth and pipeline. We also enhanced the value of our brands, introducing new and exciting guest room designs, including by transforming the Marriott Lobby, introducing the Renaissance Navigator program, and rolling out Courtyard Refreshing Business. We estimate our owners and franchisees have invested over $5 billion in renovations and repositionings over the last few years. We committed capital strategically. Our EDITION brand growth clearly benefited from our decision to build three EDITION Hotels on balance sheet. Two of these properties in London and Miami are already open, and The New York EDITION at the Clock Tower building is scheduled to open in just a few months. Just last month, Travel & Leisure Magazine named the Miami EDITION one of 43 transformative hotels worldwide in its 10th Annual Editor Choice Award. With strong momentum, we now have a dozen EDITION properties open or in the pipeline. By the way, we closed on the sale of the Miami EDITION last night, and we expect the New York Clock Tower EDITION sale to close within the next couple of months. We enhanced and improved our already powerful above-property platforms. We introduced new languages and new functionality on marriott.com, and we launched Marriott Mobile. Our site remains an incredibly low-cost, high-value booking channel for our hotels. Last year, we booked over $10 billion in property revenue on marriott.com, nearly 20% of that coming through mobile. We also rolled out mobile check-in and check-out to virtually all of our worldwide hotels well ahead of the competition. We strengthened Marriott Rewards to better target young travelers and introduced Ritz-Carlton Rewards to the Luxury space. We introduced new redemption options, embraced social media, and leveraged technology to provide instant gratification to millennial travelers. In 2014, we announced free Wi-Fi for Reward members to great acclaim. Last year, Rewards membership topped 49 million members worldwide and contributed one-half of our worldwide occupancy. In 2014, 60% of new Rewards members were next-generation travelers and 40% of new members live outside of North America. We also improved our business structure. With the spin-off of Timeshare in 2011, we dramatically increased return on invested capital and retained a significant royalty stream for Marriott Vacations worldwide. Last and most important, we delivered stronger hotel financial results and higher owner and franchisee satisfaction, both essential for continued unit growth. Since 2009, worldwide system-wide RevPAR has increased by more than 30%, margins have improved dramatically, and owners and franchisees as a whole have rarely been happier. In five years, we increased our fee revenue by nearly 60%, doubled our adjusted operating margin, and dramatically improved earnings per share. The results of all of these are impressive. And this year offers even more opportunities. Our 2015 earnings guidance reflects rooms' growth of roughly 7% gross or 6% net of deletions. We expect conversions will contribute roughly 15% of our room expansion. Upon completion of the Delta transaction, we'll pick up another 10,000 rooms. In light of our accelerating development, you may be concerned about new industry supply. Now while supply growth impacts some markets, STR estimates U.S. market supply overall increased by only 0.9% in 2014 and expects it will increase by only 1.3% in 2015. In this low supply growth environment, we are driving market share. We currently have a 10% share of rooms in North America, but 26% of the under construction market. In fact, Marriott has more hotel rooms under construction in North America than any other company. Five years ago at ALIS, we introduced the Autograph brand, a flexible lifestyle brand combining unique style and identity with the advantages of powerful [audio skip] (8:22) property systems and marketing. In recent years, hotels joining the brand saw double-digit improvement in RevPAR index. Today, Autograph has more than 75 properties with 17,000 rooms worldwide, and we expect to have more than 100 Autograph hotels open by the end of this year. Our Moxy brand was designed to capture the rapidly growing number of millennial travelers. The brand launched in Europe in 2014, and at this year's ALIS Conference, we announced the introduction of Moxy to urban markets in North America. Today our development pipeline includes 16 Moxy's under development in Europe and five already in the United States. Just last month we approved two Moxy deals for Manhattan. We expect to have 150 Moxy Hotels open worldwide by 2023. Our first AC by Marriott hotel in North America opened in New Orleans in 2014. Hotel owners love the stylish cosmopolitan brand. We already have nearly 60 AC Hotels under development worldwide, including roughly 45 projects underway in North America. Our three largest limited service brands, Courtyard, Residence Inn and Fairfield, have over 2,200 hotels and 260,000 rooms in the United States, but are just starting aggressive expansion abroad. Today, more than 50% of Courtyard's worldwide development pipeline is outside the U.S., we are adding Fairfields in Mexico and India, and launching Residence Inns in Europe and the Middle East. As large as they are, these brands still have plenty of runway worldwide. Last month, we announced an agreement to acquire the 10,000 room Delta Hotels brand in Canada. Upon completion, this transaction will significantly increase our full service market share in Canada, and provide another new brand platform for growth worldwide. We are very optimistic about the long term. As the world becomes more integrated, global travel continues to grow. The World Travel Organization estimates that the number of international arrivals has more than doubled in the past 20 years to 1.1 billion visits in 2014. In November, the United States and China reached a reciprocal agreement that extends visa validity terms from 1 year to 10 years for short-term business and leisure visitors, significantly reducing the red tape for frequent travelers. This visa extension allows flexibility for the traveler and makes the U.S. and China more attractive destinations. In 2014, our U.S. hotels reported a 20% increase in guests coming from Greater China. It's this kind of statistic which demonstrates that we truly are in a new golden age of travel. Now I'd like to turn the call over to Carl for a review of the fourth quarter and our expectations for 2015. Carl? Carl T. Berquist - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: Thanks, Arne. We were very pleased with our fourth quarter results. Diluted earnings per share totaled $0.68, $0.04 ahead of the midpoint of our $0.62 to $0.66 guidance. Compared to the midpoint of our guidance, stronger-than-expected results among our owned and leased hotels added roughly $0.01, higher-than-expected termination fees added about another $0.01, while our favorable one-time interest true-up added about $0.02. In North America, continued economic growth drove North America system-wide RevPAR up nearly 7%. We saw strong RevPAR growth in San Francisco, the Pacific Northwest and our Florida resorts. Among our system-wide full service brands, transient demand was strong and hotels in nearly half of our top 20 markets increased retail RevPAR by double-digit percentages. System-wide North America group RevPAR rose 6% in the quarter, 4% in our full-service hotels alone, reflecting less favorable holiday timing on the heels of a very strong third quarter. Looking ahead, in the first quarter of 2015, group revenue pace for our company-operated full-service hotels is up 6% while our full year 2015 group pace is up 5%. Meeting planners are bullish, booking windows are lengthening and future room rates are strengthening. In fact, in the fourth quarter, room revenue for managed group business booked for all future periods increased 9%. Room rates are moving higher. In 2015, we expect special corporate room rates from continuing accounts will increase 5% to 6%. Once again this year, we are bidding on fewer accounts in order to increase available inventory for higher rated retail business. We remain bullish about demand trends in North America. Consumer confidence is up and we are approaching record occupancy rates in our hotels. To be sure, the strong dollar will likely discourage international travel to some gateway cities in the U.S., but across our U.S. system international guests make up only about 5% of our room nights. So we don't see this as a significant headwind to our U.S. operation. All in all, we expect North America system-wide RevPAR will increase 5% to 7% in both the first quarter and the full year 2015. In our Caribbean and Latin America region, constant dollar RevPAR rose 8% in the fourth quarter. Strong leisure business and good group demand drove results in the Caribbean and Mexico. Brazil's results are likely to remain weak due to the soft economy as well as a tough comparison to last year's World Cup, but we remain bullish about this country's long-term growth potential. We expect constant dollar RevPAR growth in the Caribbean and Latin America region will increase at the mid-single-digit rate in 2015. In 2014, we earned roughly 4% of our worldwide fees in the Caribbean and Latin America region. RevPAR in Europe rose 3% in the quarter, on a constant dollar basis, benefiting from good group attendance, strong holiday demand in Germany and Austria, and easy comparisons to the prior year's poor weather. At the same time, results were constrained by weak lodging demand in Russia. Looking ahead to 2015, we expect the London market will benefit from strong group business and the impact of the Rugby World Cup late in the year. Although the broad European economy is soft, roughly 30% of our European lodging demand comes from outside Europe, with about 20 points from North America and six points from Asia. With the continued strong dollar and our concentration in attractive gateway cities, we could see upside from a good American tourist season summer. We expect 2015 RevPAR will increase at a low single-digit rate in Europe. In 2014, 7% of our fees came from this region. In the Middle East and Africa, constant dollar RevPAR increased 15% in the fourth quarter. RevPAR growth was strong in Egypt, including both business travel to Cairo and leisure travel to the Red Sea. In Africa, our Protea Hotels are on marriott.com and we've completed systems integration at a third of the properties. For 2015, we expect constant dollar RevPAR in the Middle East and Africa region will increase at a high-single-digit rate. In 2014 3% of our fee revenue came from this region. RevPAR in the Asia Pacific region increased 3% on a constant-dollar basis in the fourth quarter. In Japan, U.S. arrivals increased as the weakened yen made the country more affordable to international travelers. RevPAR in Greater China increased slightly reflecting strong Shanghai demand offset by the disruption from political demonstrations in Hong Kong. In 2015, we expect demand will remain strong in Shanghai and improve in Hong Kong, yielding a mid-single-digit growth rate for the region. In 2014, the Asia Pacific region accounted for 9% of our fee revenue with about five points coming from Greater China alone. Across all regions our system-wide international hotels reported 5% higher constant-dollar RevPAR growth in the fourth quarter but only a modest increase in RevPAR on an actual currency basis. Including the impact of hedges, currency moves reduced our pre-tax earnings by about $5 million in the quarter and $12 million for the full year. In addition, we booked an $11 million charge earlier in 2014 due to the Venezuelan bolivars' devaluation. Our operations outside the United States contributed roughly 25% of our fees in 2014. Each year we pragmatically hedge to minimize the impact of currency moves, usually a few quarters prior to the start of the year. For 2015, we estimate a 1% change in the value of the dollar in all of our markets, net of hedges, would change our adjusted EBITDA by roughly $3 million for the full year. Property level margin performance across our system was outstanding in the fourth quarter. Comparable company operated house profit margins increased 110 basis points in North America and 90 basis points worldwide. Higher room rates and continued productivity gains drove our results. For 2015, new accounting rules for the lodging industry require service charges to be included in property revenue. While we would have estimated worldwide house profit margins would increase roughly 90 basis points worldwide in 2015, adjusting for the impact of this accounting change, we estimate our reported margins will increase roughly 60 basis points. We do not expect a material impact on hotel profitability or fee revenue from these accounting changes. Worldwide, fee revenue totaled $430 million in the fourth quarter, an 11% growth rate, reflecting higher RevPAR and unit growth. For full year 2014, incentive fees increased 18% with more than half of our hotels worldwide paying incentive fees, up from 38% in 2013. For full year 2015 we expect fee revenue will increase 9% to 11% with incentive fees increasing at a low double-digit rate. Fee revenue growth will likely be constrained by unfavorable foreign exchange rates, lower deferred fee recognition, and the impact of renovation. We estimate foreign exchange alone is likely to reduce total fee revenue by $15 million to $20 million in 2015. We expect 2015 owned, leased and other, net of direct expenses, will be roughly flat to 2014 results, reflecting stronger results at renovated hotels and higher credit card branding fees, offset by the impact of property renovations, lower residential branding fees, lower termination fees, and roughly $5 million of unfavorable foreign exchange. We expect 2015 general and administrative costs will decline to $635 million to $645 million, reflecting modestly higher core admin costs, offset by lower legal costs and an easy comparison to the 2014 bolivar revaluation. We also expect G&A to reflect a roughly $5 million favorable foreign exchange impact in 2015. Net interest expense should increase to roughly $135 million, reflecting a senior note offering in the fourth quarter of 2014, lower capitalized interest with the completion of the three EDITION hotels, and higher overall debt balances. We expect interest income will increase reflecting our $100 million mezzanine loan on the Atlantis hotel which we funded in the fourth quarter of 2014. We expect 2015 fully diluted EPS will total $3 to $3.12, an increase of 18% to 23%, and adjusted EBITDA will increase 13% to 16%. Remember, this guidance excludes the pending Delta acquisition. We expect the P&L impact of Delta to be a little noisy in 2015 due to the integration and transaction costs and the like, but the transaction should be modestly accretive in 2016. Our RevPAR sensitivity is unchanged. We estimate that a point change in our RevPAR outlook across our system in 2015, assuming it was evenly distributed, will be worth about $20 million in fees and roughly $5 million on the owned and leased line for the full year. Investment spending should total $600 million to $800 million in 2015, including about $125 million in maintenance spending and $135 million for the Delta acquisition. In 2015, we plan to renovate several owned and leased hotels and begin construction of a Fairfield Inn in Brazil. We expect asset sales and loan repayments will total roughly $600 million to $650 million, including the sale of the Miami Beach EDITION and Residences and the New York EDITION. As a result, we expect cash return to shareholders in 2015 will total at least as much as we returned in 2014. For the first quarter, we expect fee revenue will increase at a mid-teens rate with higher relicensing and application fees. While group pace is strong, full service RevPAR growth in North America is likely to be a bit lighter than later in the year due to property renovation schedules and the recent Northeast snowstorms. We expect owned, leased and other revenue, net of expenses, will increase more than 20% with the addition of the Protea leased hotels and higher credit card branding fees. G&A should increase in the first quarter, reflecting higher brand initiatives and hotel development expenses. However, first quarter G&A will also benefit from a roughly $12 million net favorable impact to our legal expenses associated with certain litigation resolutions. All in all, we expect EPS to total $0.68 to $0.72 in the first quarter. We appreciate your interest in Marriott. So that we can speak to as many of you as possible, we ask that you limit yourself to one question and one follow-up. Maria, we'll take questions now.