Dennis Story
Analyst · Truist Securities. Pleaser proceed with your question
Thanks, Eddie. Our Manhattan global teams continue to execute extremely well in a challenging macro environment. Now in the quarter, we delivered strong financial results as both our Q3 and year-to-date results compare favorably to the rule of 40 plus Manhattan has solid visibility, and we continue to deliver strong metrics across growth, profitability and cash flow. I'll start with a recap of the quarter with growth rates on a year-over-year basis unless otherwise stated. Additionally, due to the volatile FX environment, we are also providing constant currency growth to demonstrate apples-to-apples comps. Unless otherwise stated, constant currency will compare results as if rates were unchanged from the year ago period. Total revenue was a record $198 million up 17% as reported and up 21% in constant currency. Excluding license and maintenance revenue, which removes the compression driven by our cloud transition, as-reported total revenue was up 23% and 27% in constant currency. Q3 cloud revenue totaled $45 million up 41%. And as Eddie highlighted, we ended the quarter with RPO of $970 million, up 69%. Excluding FX, RPO totaled $1.01 billion, up 76% and assumes year ago FX rates. Sequential growth was 10% and assumes FX rates remain unchanged from the June 30 levels. Looking ahead to Q4, we expect RPO to be at the high end of our prior guidepost range of $950 million to $1.05 billion on an as-reported basis and exceed the range, excluding FX. As of September 30, over 97% of our RPO represents true cloud native subscriptions. As Eddie mentioned, Q3 global services revenue was a record $103 million, up 17% and as cloud sales continue to fuel services revenue growth globally. Our Q3 operating profit totaled $51 million with adjusted operating margin of roughly 20% and which includes $13 million of incremental performance-based compensation accruals. On a normalized basis, operating margin would be approximately 32%. I'd call that tapping on the door of rule of 50. The quarter's better-than-expected margin performance was driven by revenue growth and operating leverage. Importantly, we continue to invest for future growth. For the quarter, Q3 adjusted earnings per share was $0.66, and GAAP earnings per share totaled $0.47. Turning to cash. Q3 operating cash flow was a solid $40 million, and year-to-date operating cash flow was $124 million. Q3 adjusted EBITDA margin was 27%. Free cash flow margin was 19% and was impacted by timing of cash taxes paid and accounts receivable billings. As previously discussed, the year-to-date decline in operating cash is solely tied to the incremental cash taxes paid associated with the U.S. Tax Cuts and Jobs Act that did not impact the year ago period. Year-to-date, we have paid $42 million in cash taxes compared to $18 million over the first 9 months of 2021, with the vast majority of the increase due to the new law. We continue to expect between $25 million and $30 million of additional tax payments in 2022. For more information, I'd refer you to Item 8 in our earnings release supplemental information schedules. Turning to the balance sheet. Deferred revenue increased 24% year-over-year to $169 million with subscriptions totaling over 50% of the line item. Similarly, to free cash flow, deferred revenue was impacted by the quarterly fluctuation of cash receipts. Specifically, some customers paid us in Q2 of this year versus Q3 of 2021. And - we ended the quarter with $197 million in cash and zero debt. In the quarter, we invested $50 million in share repurchases and resulting in $150 million in buybacks year-to-date. Also, our Board has approved the replenishing of our $70 million share repurchase authority. Now turning to updated 2022 guidance. With our strong year-to-date performance and increasing visibility, we are raising our 2022 outlook on both the top and bottom lines and are on pace to deliver our third consecutive record revenue year. As such, the midpoint of our total revenue range is increasing to $751.5 million representing 13% growth as reported and 16% constant currency. This is up from our prior guidance midpoint of $737 million and 11% growth. Excluding license and maintenance attrition, 2022 growth would be 23% as reported and 26% in constant currency. That's pretty solid. Inclusive of our increased investment in hiring, we continue to anticipate full year adjusted operating margin to be about 25.5% and which is in line with our prior guidance range and ahead of our original margin target of 23.25%. For full year adjusted earnings per share, the midpoint of our range is increasing to $2.44, up from our prior midpoint of $2.37. For GAAP EPS, yes, that's GAAP EPS, the midpoint is moving to $1.72, up from the prior midpoint of $1.65. Note the difference between non-GAAP and GAAP is solely our investment in equity-based compensation. This implies Q4 revenue of $182.5 million, targeting cloud revenue of $47.5 million, services revenue of $93.5 million and maintenance revenue of $32.5 million. Operating margin is targeted at 21.8%, resulting in adjusted earnings per share of $0.49. As previously mentioned on prior calls, our Q4 margin accounts for retail peak seasonality, which traditionally, on a sequential basis, is down from Q3 as customers idle implementations to focus on their busy season. So that covers the 2022 guidance update, and we're going to move to preliminary 2023 parameters. Our financial objective is to deliver sustainable double-digit top line growth and top quartile operating margins benchmarked against enterprise SaaS comps. Please refer to Item 9 on our earnings release for our updated 2022 and 2023 guidepost. We are also reiterating our 2024 guidepost estimates that we published in February, which, on an FX-adjusted basis, should be used as a baseline for our future performance. Note, our published 2024 guidepost have not been adjusted for currency movements. As Eddie highlighted, we are taking a cautious approach to the volatile macro environment, balancing our optimism regarding our large and growing opportunity, strong, resilient demand across our solutions with the uncertain economic outlook. Additionally, we are currently in our budget cycle and will firm up our 2023 parameters on our Q4 call in early February. Accounting for the current FX environment, our preliminary estimate for 2023 total revenue is $800 million to $820 million, representing 16% growth excluding license and maintenance attrition and 8% reported growth at the midpoint. If rates would mean at June 30 levels, our 2023 total revenue range would be $10 million higher or approximately $820 million at the midpoint. For 2023, cloud revenue, we are targeting $230 million to $233 million, representing 35% growth at the midpoint. This compares favorably to our prior guide post midpoint of $230 million that used year-end 2021 FX rates. If rates remained at 2021 levels, the midpoint of our cloud revenue range would increase to $239 million. For RPO, we are targeting a range of $1.3 billion to $1.4 billion, representing about 30% growth at the midpoint, which compares favorably to our prior guidepost midpoint of $1.325 billion. Yes, that's $1.325 billion. That used year-end 2021 FX rates. If rates remained at 2021 levels, our RPO range will be about $50 million higher. Additionally, as previously discussed, our bookings performance is impacted by the number and relative value of large deals we close in any quarter, which can potentially cause lumpiness or nonlinear bookings throughout the year. Our services demand continues to be fueled by cloud, resulting in solid visibility. In 2023, we are targeting services revenue of $417 million to $425 million, which represents 9% growth at the midpoint, 10% excluding the impact of FX. On attrition to cloud, we expect maintenance revenue to be $115 million to $122 million or a 15% decline at the midpoint and license revenue to be about 1% of total revenue. We expect our adjusted operating margin to be roughly unchanged from our current 2022 projections. While we continue to track ahead of our original margin expectations, the combination of opportunistic investment in our business and hiring supply chain talent as well as attrition to cloud is masking some of the inherent leverage in our model. We expect our effective tax rate to be 21.7% and our diluted share count to be approximately 63.4 million shares, which assumes no buyback activity. In summary, for 2023 parameters and on an as-reported basis, we expect total revenue x license and maintenance attrition to increase 16%, cloud revenue to increase 35%, services revenue to increase 9%, RPO to increase 30% and for us to achieve 25.5% operating margin. So that comes a very stout financial performance update and outlook. Thank you, and back to Eddie for some closing remarks.