Dennis Story
Analyst · SunTrust Robinson. Your line is open
Okay, thanks Eddie. As Eddie mentioned, our year-over-year reported comps in my opinion were positively influenced by our Manhattan Active Omni cloud transition. Approximately 3.5 million of what we would have reported as traditional perpetual license deals with $0.03 of EPS in fact converted to cloud this quarter based on customer demand with future routable revenue cash flow and EPS impact. Q3 total revenue was 153 million flat versus a year ago, Americas was down 4%, Europe grew 22%, and Asia-Pacific was up 36%. Adjusted earnings per share for the quarter was $0.51 up slightly compared to Q3 2016 EPS of $0.50 on flat revenue and expense management. Our GAAP earnings per share was $0.47 flat compared to prior year. For your reference a detailed reconciliation of GAAP to non-GAAP EPS is included in our earnings release today. So license revenue for the quarter, reported license revenue totaled $18.8 million declining 13% versus Q3 2016 driven by Manhattan's transition to the cloud. The 3.5 million in on-prem equivalent license revenue that converted to cloud will begin generating recognize subscription revenue in Q4 of this year. Just to be clear, the $3.5 million only represents the license portion of subscription for the total subscription value. Our reported 18.8 million in license for the quarter includes 2.5 million of cloud revenue predominantly from our TMS product. Regional license splits were Americas $14.7 million, Europe $2.2 million, and Asia Pacific $1.9 million. Global pipeline activity is robust for our Manhattan Active Omni solutions so we expect Q4 cloud sales will have a similar impact on Q4 license revenue as we close out the year. Shifting to services, Q3 services revenue totaled $115.6 million down 3% over prior year and down 1% sequentially. Our services revenue is comprised of two revenue streams as you know consulting and maintenance. Consulting revenue for the quarter totaled $79.2 million down 7% compared to prior year and down 2% sequentially from Q2 2017. Americas was down 12% year-over-year, Europe and APAC combined were up 27% year-over-year with Europe up 15% in Asia-Pacific up 61% over a low comp. Maintenance revenue for the quarter totaled $36 million increasing 6% over last year on strong collections license revenue growth, cash collections and retention rates of 90 plus percent contributed to this year-over-year growth. As a reminder, we recognized maintenance revenue on a cash basis of timing of cash collections can cause inter-period lumpiness from quarter-to-quarter. Consolidated services margins for the quarter were 62% benefiting primarily from strong productivity and lower performance-based compensation accruals. We expect Q4 2017 services margins will likely be in the range of 61.8% to 62% and our full-year 2017 services margins to be about 60%. 2017 services margins are benefiting by about 200 basis points due to $8 million and lower performance-based compensation expense which will reset in 2018. Turning to operating income and margins, Q3 adjusted operating income totaled $34.9 million with an operating margin of 35.9%. The $3.5 million impact of license revenue converting from perpetual to subscription revenue lowered operating margin 140 basis points. Our full year 2017 operating income estimate range is $202 million to $206 million with an operating margin of about 34.3%. While disappointing it's important to note the lower performance-based compensation expense positively impacted operating margins by 240 basis points. If we would had achieved our 2017 growth rates, operating margins would have been about 32%. That covers the operating results. Our adjusted effective income tax rate was 36.5% for Q3 and we continue to project a full-year effective tax rate of 36.5% for adjusted earnings per share. For GAAP, new accounting rules related to taxes associated with vesting restricted stock will lower our 2017 GAAP effective tax rate to 35.5%. Diluted shares for the quarter totaled 69.1 million shares. Our year-to-date common shares outstanding are down 2%. For Q3 we did not execute any share repurchases in order to replenish our domestic cash reserves, and reestablish our $100 million cash threshold that we like to carry on the balance sheet to show financial strength against our competition. We estimate Q4 diluted shares to be about $69.3 million and full-year weighted average diluted shares to be about $69.6 million shares. This estimate does not assume additional common stock repurchases. We currently had 50 million of share repurchase authority approved by our Board. Turning cash metrics, we closed the quarter with cash and investments totaling $130 million and zero debt compared to $87 million and zero debt reported for Q2 2017. Q3 cash flow from operations was $44 million with year-to-date operating cash flow totaling $116.6 million up 15% over prior year. DSOs were 58 days versus 57 days in Q2 2017 and capital expenditures were $1.2 million in the quarter. We estimate full-year CapEx to be about $5 to $7 million. Now I'll update our 2017 guidance and provide a preliminary 2018 outlook and then hand off to Eddie for closing remarks. So, we are maintaining our 2017 full-year total revenue and EPS guidance issued last quarter. Total revenue will be in the range of $590 million to $600 million. With the Q4 holiday season, we are modeling typical sequential decline and services revenue of about 3% to 4% from Q3 2017 to Q4 2017. For adjusted diluted earnings per share our guidance range remains at $1.85 to $1.89. For GAAP and diluted EPS again there is no change at a $1.71 to $1.75. Now shifting focus to 2018, several moving parts here with adoption of ASC 606 and anticipated transition to the cloud subscription model ramping up, we are providing broad parameters for 2018 as the streets 2018 models are currently geared towards our traditional perpetual license business. There are four primary elements impacting our 2018 P&L profile. Number one is ASC 606 revenue recognition adoption January 1, 2018 which all companies will be adopting this accounting standard. Second is our Manhattan cloud transition, third performance-based compensation reset and fourth strategic investment. So on the rev rate adoption, we will adopt 606 on a modified retrospective basis. I know that excites you all, so we will not be restating years 2017 and prior. There are two primary impacts for Manhattan. One, we will report hardware revenue net of the related expense on our income statement, and two we will be amortizing commissions expense related to maintenance and other services that extend beyond 12 months. While the netting of cost against hardware revenue will not impact our gross profit, it will reduce our base year 2017 revenue by about $31 million and therefore directly impact revenue growth comps 2017 versus 2018. The impact is earnings neutral on a comp basis. 606 requires net reporting since we do not take title to any hardware sold. We're still evaluating the impact of the amortized commissions but currently do not expect this to be material. Second is cloud transition. Based on our early client preference for Manhattan Active Omni cloud deployment, we're estimating 25% to 30% of our recognized software revenue to be cloud revenue in 2018. We are pegging total software revenue to be approximately $84 million in 2018, so we expect 2018 cloud revenue recognized will double to triple over 2017 with that range. Starting in Q1 2018, we will report our license and cloud revenue and cost of revenue splits in our publicly reported financials. The new revenue line will include all subscription hosting an infrastructure as a service revenue from our existing and new software as a service and hosted customers. As always our software performance will depend heavily on the mix of license to cloud deals and the number and relative value of large deals we close in any quarter. The cost of the cloud line will include our global cloud operations, compliance cost and third-party cloud and software costs associated with the management of the cloud environments. As a checkpoint, we expect our 2018 license gross margin to be about 89.5% and our cloud gross margin to be about 44% as a large portion of our initial upfront cloud ops investment is fixed cost. Moving onto the third element, performance-based compensation reset. Due to lower than planned revenue in 2017, our performance-based compensation paid to our associates is significantly lower than in previous years. In 2017 these plans worked as designed by sharing the negative impact of lower than planned revenue performance between our employees and our shareholders. As we began 2018 compensation plans, we were reset with the expectation of achieving our financial goals in the coming year with the financial impact of about $15 million. We have the deepest domain expertise in our industry, a strong heritage of execution and focus on our customers. We're making great strides in innovation as well. Resetting our performance-based compensation target annually is a very important component of serving our markets, customers, investors while continuously retaining and attracting top supply-chain commerce talent. And finally the fourth element is strategic investment of $10 million to $15 million earmark for product innovation across the Board and omni-channel addressable market expansion. This represents phased investment capital driven by market demand essentially adding a second layer of investment for product innovation, marketing and sales coverage in cloud operations necessary to drive growth and expand addressable market. We are currently in our budgeting cycle factoring in the transitional impacts. We will provide 2018 guidance on our Q4 earnings call February - that's going to be held on February 6, 2018. We will also address key metrics at that time. After taking the above factors into account our preliminary outlook for 2018 follows; for revenue, assuming the midpoint of our 2017 total revenue guidance of $595 million, our estimated range of - for 2018 total revenue is $556 million to $568 million. So 2018 total revenue estimate is from $556 million to $568 million representing a decline of 6.5% to 4.5% respectively. Apples-to-apples adjusting for 2017 revenue for the 606 hardware impact, we expect total revenue to range from a decline of 1% to an increase of 1%, and our recurring revenue mix is targeted be at about 30% of 2018 revenue. For earnings per share assuming the midpoint of 2017 EPS guidance of a $1.87, our estimated range for 2018 EPS is from a $1.26 to the $1.29 representing a decline of 33% to 31%. Adjusted operating margins with the business transition to cloud ramping up in 2018, we are targeting an operating margin range of 24.1% to 24.3%. As I mentioned, we will address longer-term trends in key metrics in our Q4 earnings call. Our effective tax rate estimate is 36.5% subject to U.S. federal state and foreign tax legislation changes. Per diluted shares we are projecting 68.5 million shares per quarter which assumes no buyback activity in Q4 2017 or the full year 2018. So we covered a lot here in an effort to provide some transparency to investors we have added a section in our supplemental financial schedules attached to today's earnings release in the Form 8-K we submitted to the SEC earlier today, and on our website@manage.com. It recaps some of the information I've just provided you for 2018. That covers the financial update. Thank you very much. And I'll turn the call back to Eddie for some closing comments.