Dennis B. Story
Analyst · maybe what it portends in the next year on the license side
Thanks, Eddie. I will review our Q3 2013 non-GAAP results and GAAP EPS performance, provide a review of our 2013 full year guidance and finish with some initial comments on 2014. For the company, total revenue for Q3 2013 was $107.8 million, up 12% from last year. Against tough Q3 comps last year, Americas grew total revenue to 10%, EMEA grew 20% and APAC grew 28%. Adjusted earnings per share for the quarter was $1.05, up 40% over the prior year, fueled by strong services revenue growth, expense management and our buyback program. Our earnings per share performance does include $0.07 of benefit from revenue timing and currency. $0.04 was timing on maintenance revenue collections originally forecast for Q4, and the remaining $0.03 was currency benefit from Indian rupee depreciation. License revenue for the quarter totaled $14.8 million. From a regional perspective, Americas posted license revenue of $11.7 million; EMEA, $1.8 million; and APAC, $1.3 million. In the backdrop of ongoing global macro sluggishness, our license performance continues to depend heavily on the number and relative value of large deals we closed in a given quarter. Shifting to Services, demand remained solid. Q3 Services revenue totaled $85 million, increasing 18% year-over-year. Our Services revenue is comprised of 2 revenue streams: consulting and maintenance. Our consulting revenue for the quarter totaled $57.7 million, growing 23% over Q3 last year. With solid demand, we hired another 50 associates across the globe in the quarter. Year-over-year, we've grown our Services practice by about 100 associates, up 9%, and currently are looking to add about 100 additional new associates to support growth and focus on customer satisfaction. Maintenance revenue for the quarter totaled $27.3 million, increasing 10% over last year. While fairly consistent license revenue performance and retention rates of 90-plus percent accounted for year-over-year growth, our Q3 maintenance revenue and EPS also benefited from timing on renewal collections from a few large customers of approximately $1.2 million in revenue and earnings per share impact of $0.04. On our previous Q2 call, our guidance forecast assumed the timing of collections from these accounts would be in Q4. As a reminder, we recognized maintenance renewal revenue on a cash basis. So the timing of cash collections can cause inter-period lumpiness from quarter-to-quarter. On consolidated Services margins for the quarter, they were up 58.2%, exceeding our expectations, while the previously mentioned timing of maintenance revenue positively impacted our Q3 Services margin by about 50 basis points. With the recent hires I mentioned earlier combined with lower utilization in Q4 due to seasonal holidays, we are now expecting our full year 2013 Services margins to come in between 55.3% and 55.8%. So again, our full year 2013 Services margins to come in between 55.3% and 55.8$ Turning to operating income and margins. We delivered record Q3 adjusted operating income of $32 million with an operating margin of 29.7%. Excluding the $2 million impact of pull-through on maintenance collections and the currency impact of rupee on adjusted operating income, operating margins were 28.1% for the quarter. For the full year, including the $1.6 million sales tax reversal we recorded in Q2 of last quarter, we are now forecasting operating margin to be in the 26.2% to 26.5% range, representing a 270 to 300 basis point improvement over 2012. Excluding the sales tax benefit and the rupee currency benefit, our run rate operating margin range would be in the 25.6% to 25.9% range. We expect our Q4 operating margin to be about 26%, adjusted for quarterly license and Services revenue mix due to seasonality. Below the line, we posted other income of $0.5 million in Q3, which included FX gains of about $300,000 in the quarter or a one set benefit to Q3 results, and $0.03 of incremental impact over Q3 2012. As I mentioned earlier, FX gains and losses reported in other income result from quarterly intercompany settlements with our international units. This quarter's gain was driven by the Indian rupee. Given the volatile nature of foreign currency fluctuations, we do not attempt to forecast the impacts of FX gains or losses to other income. Regarding taxes, our adjusted effective income tax rate for Q3 was 37.1%, a bit higher than the 36% we expected, due primarily to higher foreign tax expense due to the current mix of taxable income by country. We are projecting a full year effective tax rate of 36%, which now assumes a Q4 effective rate of 36.5%. Transitioning to diluted shares. For the quarter, diluted shares totaled 19.4 million shares, down from Q2 2013 shares of 19.5 million. We repurchased 152,000 shares of Manhattan common stock in the quarter, totaling $13.5 million against option exercises of 57,000 shares. For Q4 2013, we estimate diluted shares to be about 19.4 million and full year diluted shares to be about 19.475 million. Our estimate does not assume additional common stock repurchases. Also, last week, our board approved raising our share repurchase authority limit to a total of $50 million. That covers the adjusted results. Our Q3 2013 GAAP diluted earnings per share was a record $1.02, increasing 48% over the $0.69 we posted in Q3 2012. Our GAAP performance was driven by the strength, obviously, of adjusted operating results. A detailed reconciliation of GAAP to non-GAAP adjustments is included in our earnings release today. Now turning to cash flow. For the quarter, we generated record cash flow from operations totaling $32.7 million and year-to-date cash flow from operations of $66.4 million, increased 29% compared to $51.4 million last year. Our DSOs were 58 days versus 61 days last quarter. Capital expenditures were $1.6 million in Q3, and we now estimate full year 2013 CapEx to be about $5 million to $6 million. Our balance sheet continues to support long-term strategic flexibility and stability, with cash and investments totaling $126 million and 0 debt at September 30, 2013, compared to $107 million at June 2013 and $103 million at the end of Q4 2012. That covers my Q3 remarks. Let's move on to our updated 2013 guidance and some early comments on 2014. For 2013, adjusted earnings per share, with our better-than-expected Q3 earnings per share performance, we are raising our guidance estimate to $3.61 to $3.66 from our previous range of $3.37 to $3.45. This new range represents 28% to 30% growth over our 2012 adjusted earnings per share of $2.82. Excluding the Q2, $1.6 million sales tax reversal and $2.5 million of year-to-date currency benefit to income before taxes, apples-to-apples, our 2013 earnings per share growth is in the 23% to 25% range. For Q4, we expect earnings per share to be lower than Q3, given the combined impact of seasonally lower Q4 Services revenue, the full quarter impact of our professional services hiring activity in Q3 and the positive Q3 impact of maintenance cash collection timing versus Q4. Full year GAAP EPS guidance estimates also increased to $3.37 to $3.42 from our previous estimate of $3.07 to $3.15, representing 32% to 34% growth over prior year. For reference, a guidance table is provided in today's earnings release. For 2013 revenue, with one remaining quarter in 2013, we are modestly tightening our full year revenue range estimate from $407 million to $415 million to $407 million to $412 million, still representing 8% to 10% growth over 2012. Given our Q3 actual revenue of $107.8 million, we expect our total revenue first half versus second half percentage split to be about 49% to 51% for 2013. With Q4 holiday seasonality and many retail clients idling back implementations in preparation for peak season, we expect our revenue profile and percentage mix to be similar to our Q2 2013 result. While our license pipeline and potential transactions for Q4 look solid, we continue to remain cautious on timing of deal closings, given the macro backdrop. For Services, due to the seasonality and the accelerated Q3 pull-forward on maintenance collections, we expect Q4 Services revenue to be down sequentially from Q3, about 6% to 7%. And finally, hardware and other revenue should be about flat sequentially. In summary, achieving the midpoint of our 2013 guidance we'll post another strong year in a lingering tough macro environment, achieving total revenue growth of about 9%, operating profit growth of about 23% and adjusted earnings per share growth of 28% to 30%. Our earnings per share growth is higher than our operating profit growth, primarily due to year-to-date foreign exchange gains and other income and earnings leverage from our buyback program. Again, since we do not forecast FX gains and losses, a material shift in FX rates in Q4 would impact our estimates. So that covers 2013. Shifting focus to 2014. Similar to prior years, we are just starting our 2014 budget cycle, but here are a few early comments for adjusted EPS modeling purposes. Overall, we expect the competitive environment to be about the same and continue to remain very cautious on the global macro environment. Not much really has changed from 2010 through 2014. We are committed to driving shareholder return through steady revenue growth, consistent earnings growth and efficient management of our capital structure. Despite a tough macro, with our growth strategy and competitive position, we're quite positive on our outlook and still believe there is ample opportunity for potential earnings leverage. For revenue, we plan to grow total revenue at about 1.5x the expected market growth rate pegged at 5% to 7%, so a year-over-year growth of about 8% to 10%. Adjusted operating margins, given our strong operating margin performance in 2013, we're targeting operating margin expansion of about 50 basis points over 2013, with potential upside, which we'll address on a quarter-to-quarter basis starting next quarter. This improvement depends in part on the relative stability of forecasted FX rates for 2014 you all know, for the rupee in particular. For effective tax rate, our best estimate is about 36%, subject to U.S. federal, state and foreign tax legislation changes. So we'll keep an eye on that and report back to you in our Q4 earnings call. And diluted shares, we're currently projecting about 19.350 million, 19,350,000 diluted shares per quarter, which assumes no buyback activity in Q4 of 2013 or the full year 2014. Now that covers our 2013 guidance and some preliminary thoughts for modeling 2014. Now I'll turn the call back to Eddie for the business update.