Dennis B. Story
Analyst · Raymond James
Thanks, Pete. I'm going to cover our Q1 2012 non-GAAP results and GAAP EPS performance, and then I'll review our updated 2012 full year guidance. As Pete noted, a solid start to 2012, posting $91.5 million in total revenue, the highest quarterly result in our company's history, besting our previous record of $90.5 million in Q2 2008. Total revenue increased 28% over Q1 2011, as license revenue doubled against the weak comp, and Services posted 25% revenue growth. On a regional basis, Americas grew total revenue, 22%; EMEA, 49%; and APAC, 84%, over Q1 last year. Adjusted earnings per share for the quarter was $0.60, increasing 46% over prior year fueled by revenue growth. On an apples-to-apples basis, our Q1 2012 EPS grew 69%. We arrived at 69% growth by reducing the Q1 2012 result by $0.06 and reducing the Q1 2011 result by $0.09. Our Q1 2012 EPS result includes a $2 million, or $0.06 of EPS benefit, from recognition of previously deferred services revenue from a large services engagement, as we successfully completed our contract delivery requirements in Q1. As a reminder, our Q1 2011 adjusted EPS result benefited from a nonrecurring $0.09 India income tax benefit. License revenue for the quarter totaled $15.6 million, doubling over the $7.8 million we recognized in Q1 2011. From a regional perspective, Americas posted license revenue of $11 million; EMEA, $4.1 million; and APAC, $539,000. Our license performance continues to depend heavily on the number and relative value of large deals we close in a given quarter. And as Pete mentioned, we had a solid Q1 with 5 $1-plus million deals closed. While large-sized deal activity has been solid for the past 4 quarters, we remain cautious as a tepid global economic recovery continues to shape buying decisions and estimating sales cycles for large deals still remain somewhat less predictable than pre-2009. Now shifting to Services. Demand continues to be very solid. Q1 services revenue totaled $70.4 million, increasing 25% year-over-year. As you may recall, our services revenue was comprised of 2 revenue streams: Consulting and Maintenance. Our consulting revenue for the quarter totaled $46.6 million, growing 33% over Q1 last year. Apples-to-apples, consulting revenue grew 27%, excluding the $2 million of previously deferred consulting revenue recognized in Q1. Our previous 2012 annual guidance included the impact of this revenue and its associated earnings in Q2, so we were able to pull this particular contract in, in Q1 on a timing basis. So it impacted our Q1 results pretty significantly. Historically, large deferred services revenue contracts have been atypical for Manhattan, so their impact can create material impacts to inter-period comps. You may recall, last year's Q2 2011 results included a $3 million, or $0.09 EPS benefit, associated with another deferred services revenue contract, which will have a significant impact on this year's Q2 2012 comps. When these contracts arise, the challenge is forecasting recognition timing, as it is generally contingent upon software delivery and customer acceptance. Moving on to maintenance revenue. Q1 2012 revenue totaled $23.7 million, increasing 14% over last year. Solid license revenue growth over the last 4 quarters, cash collections and retention rates of 90-plus percent, contributed to the year-over-year growth. As a reminder, we recognize maintenance renewal revenue on a cash basis, so the timing of cash collections can cause inter-period lumpiness from quarter-to-quarter as well. Consolidated services margins for the quarter were 54.8% compared to 55.9% sequentially from Q4 2011 and 56.1% in Q1 2011. We mentioned in our last call that we expected our Q1 2012 Services margin to be between 52.5% and 53.5%, reflecting the full cost of 60 new hires in the back end of Q4 2011 and our plan to add 100-plus billable resources in Q1. Excluding the impact of the $2 million deferred Services revenue, which essentially is carrying no incremental cost, our underlying services margin for the quarter would have been 53.4%. Though we didn't fully achieve our aggressive hiring goal, we made significant progress toward adding billable staff in the quarter. We expect our first half 2012 services margins to fall in the range of 54.2% to 54.5% and our full year 2012 services margins to normalize into the 53.5% to 54.5% range as we execute our plan to align billable capacity to support business booked and capture additional pipeline opportunity. So turning to operating income and margins. Through strong license and services revenue growth and solid services productivity, we did deliver record Q1 adjusted operating income of $19.6 million, with an operating margin of 21.4%. We were expecting our Q1 operating margin to be in the 19.5% to 20% range, and excluding the $2 million deferred services revenue impact in the quarter, our underlying operating margin was 19.7%. For the full year, we are targeting a 50- to 80-basis-point expansion in 2012 operating margin. We expect Q2 through Q4 operating margins to range between 21.5% and 23% adjusted for quarterly license and services revenue mix due to seasonality. Other income, which includes net interest income, net gains or losses on asset disposals and the net impact of realized and unrealized foreign exchange gains or losses, was a negative $124,000 in Q1 2012 due to FX losses of $369,000 in the quarter. Consistent with prior years, we do not attempt to budget or forecast FX gains or losses in other income, so the $0.05 positive EPS impact in 2011 results in a negative impact to our full year EPS growth forecast for 2012. On the taxes front, our adjusted effective income tax rate for Q1 was 36% against our original projection of 34%, resulting in a -- in $0.02 of diluted EPS impact to the quarter. Higher domestic to foreign taxable income mix, combined with the 2011 expiration of the R&D tax credit legislation in the U.S. is driving the effective tax rate increase. As a result, we are now raising our projected full year effective tax rate to 35.5%, which negatively impacts EPS by about $0.07 for the full year. We project our Q2 effective tax rate to be 36%, Q3's rate to be 34.5% and Q4's rate to be 36%. Q3's rate is expected to be lower due to the release of FIN 48 tax reserves associated with the filing of our 2011 U.S. federal tax return. Now if Congress retroactively extends the R&D tax credit legislation for the 2012 tax year, we believe our annual effective rate would improve, allowing us to recapture some of the negative EPS impact. However, it would be imprudent for us to plan for that credit, particularly in an election year. Transitioning to diluted shares. We continue to efficiently manage our capital structure with our share buyback program, which has historically been highly accretive to our shareholders. For the quarter, diluted shares totaled 20,637,000 shares, down sequentially from Q4 2011 shares of 20,923,000 shares. In Q1, we repurchased 653,000 shares of Manhattan common stock, totaling $30.6 million of investment against option exercises of 629,000 shares. And last week, our board approved raising our share repurchase authority limit to a total of $50 million. For 2012, taking into account the impact of Q1 share repurchases and option exercises, we are now estimating full year diluted shares in the range of 20.5 million to 20.6 million. We currently expect Q2 through Q4 2012 diluted shares to be about 20.5 million. Our estimate does not assume additional common stock repurchases and depends on a number of variables including stock price, option exercises, forfeitures and share repurchases, which can significantly impact estimates. So that covers the adjusted results. Our Q1 2012 GAAP diluted earnings per share was a record $0.55, increasing 72% over $0.32 we posted in Q1 2011. Our GAAP performance was driven by the strength of adjusted operating results, and a detailed reconciliation of GAAP to non-GAAP adjustments is included in our earnings release today. So that covers the overall P&L results. Turning to cash flow. For the quarter, cash flow from operations was $13.1 million, increasing 61% over $8.1 million generated in Q1 2011. DSOs improved to 57 days versus 62 days in Q4 of 2011. And capital expenditures were $1.8 million in the quarter, and we estimate full year 2012 CapEx to be about $6 million to $8 million. Our balance sheet continues to support long-term strategic flexibility and stability with our cash and investments balance at March 31, 2012, totaling $97.5 million compared to $99 million at the end of Q4 2011. The net decrease in cash from December 2011 is principally due to our share buyback program. Now I'll update our 2012 guidance and then hand off to Pete for the business update. As I mentioned earlier, while the global economic recovery remains tepid, for our target markets we are cautiously optimistic that investment activity is going to continue so we are raising guidance. For 2012 revenue, our updated guidance for the full year total revenue was $365 million to $375 million, representing a growth rate range of 11% to 14% over 2011 and an improvement to our previous range of $363 million to $370 million, representing 10% to 12% growth. Overall, we expect our full year total revenue percentage split to be about 50-50 first half versus second half. We expect a more typical seasonal pattern with Q1 and Q3 license revenue being lower than Q2 and Q4 license revenue, and services revenue lower in Q4 due to the seasonal holidays. For 2012 adjusted diluted earnings per share, we are raising our range $0.05 to $2.55 to $2.60, representing 10% to 12% growth over 2011 adjusted EPS of $2.32, while absorbing the negative $0.07 EPS impact on our higher-than-planned effective tax rate. Apples-to-apples, 2012 adjusted EPS growth is projected to be 17% to 19%, subtracting from 2011's adjusted EPS, the $0.09 nonrecurring India income tax benefit and $0.05 of FX gains realized in the second half of 2011 in other income. We continue to expect full year EPS to have about the same percentage split of 48% in the first half and 52% in the second half that we discussed in previous guidance. For 2012 GAAP diluted earnings per share, we expect to deliver $2.27 to $2.32, representing 9% to 11% growth over 2011 GAAP EPS of $2.09. The $0.28 full year EPS difference between GAAP to non-GAAP EPS represents the impact of stock-based compensation. We expect the EPS impact to be about $0.07 per quarter. Regarding adjusted operating margins, we continue to focus on year-over-year adjusted operating margin expansion and are moving our 50 basis point expansion objective to 50- to 80-basis-point improvement over 2011. We expect Q2 through Q4 operating margins to range between 21.5% and 23% adjusted for quarterly license and services revenue mix due to seasonality. And finally, as a reminder, our Q2 revenue and earnings per share growth comps will be impacted by last year's $3 million of previously deferred services revenue on a contract recognized in Q2 2011 and the associated $0.09 of EPS benefit that came along with that $3 million. Considering the material impact on revenue and EPS comps with license revenue performance, large deferred revenue contracts and the nonrecurring India income tax benefit, the best proxy for revenue and earnings per share growth comps is looking at our combined first-half results. Based on our full year guidance, we expect first-half total revenue growth of about 14% to 15% and adjusted EPS growth of about 14% to 16%, respectively, on a reported basis. And on apples-to-apples, first-half EPS growth should be about 25% to 27%. And when you subtract first-half adjusted EPS from first-half adjusted EPS, the $0.09 nonrecurring India income tax benefit recognized in Q1 2011. So that covers the updated 2012 guidance and Q1 2012 results. Now I'll turn the call back to Pete for the business update.