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ManpowerGroup Inc. (MAN)

Q3 2017 Earnings Call· Fri, Oct 20, 2017

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Welcome to the Manpower Third Quarter Earnings Results Conference Call. [Operator Instructions]. This call will be recorded. If you have any objections, you may disconnect at this time. And I will now turn the call over to ManpowerGroup Chairman and CEO, Jonas Prising. Sir, you may begin.

Jonas Prising

Analyst

Good morning. Welcome to the third quarter conference call for 2017. With me today is our Chief Financial Officer, Jack McGinnis. I will start the call today by going through some of the highlights of the third quarter, and then Jack will go through the operating results in the segments, our balance sheet and cash flow and some comments regarding our outlook for the fourth quarter. Then I will follow with some final thoughts before our Q&A session. But before we go any further into our call, Jack will now read the safe harbor language.

John McGinnis

Analyst

Good morning, everyone. This conference call includes forward-looking statements, which are subject to known and unknown risks and uncertainties. These statements are based on management's current expectations or beliefs. Actual results might differ materially from those projected in the forward-looking statements. Additional information concerning factors that could cause actual results to materially differ from those in the forward-looking statements can be found in the company's annual report on Form 10-K and in other Securities and Exchange Commission filings of the company, which information is incorporated herein by reference. Any forward-looking statement in today's call speaks only as of the date of which it is made, and we assume no obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statements. During our call today, we will reference certain non-GAAP financial measures, which we believe provide useful information for investors. We include a reconciliation of those measures where appropriate to GAAP on the Investor Relations section of our website at manpowergroup.com.

Jonas Prising

Analyst

Thanks, Jack. We're pleased with our performance in the third quarter. Revenue came in at $5.5 billion, an increase of 4% in constant currency. On a same-day basis, our underlying organic constant currency growth rate was 5%, slightly below the second quarter level due to the tougher comparables in the prior year. We saw very strong revenue growth in a number of our bigger operations such as France, Italy and Mexico, offset by revenue weakness in the U.K. and the U.S. We saw overall improvement in our revenues through the quarter, with September revenues growing just about 6% adjusted for billing days. We expect to see revenue growth rates remain at that level as we close out the year despite increasingly tougher comparables in the fourth quarter of last year. Operating profit in the quarter was $228 million, up 4% in constant currency. Operating profit margin came in at 4.2%, an increase of 10 basis points over the prior year at the upper end of our guidance range. You'll recall that the third quarter of last year included approximately $8 million of nonrecurring gains. Excluding those gains from the prior year, our operating profit growth was over 12% with a 20 basis points expansion in margin. During the quarter, we continue to see gross profit margin contraction. However, this is offset by our continued SG&A productivity improvements and good SG&A leverage. Earnings per share for the quarter was $2.04, an increase of 6% in constant currency or an increase of 14% excluding the nonrecurring gains last year. Our performance reflects our ability to drive profitable revenue growth and solid returns through our strong and connected brands, leveraging our industry-leading geographic footprint. Our strategy has not changed, and we're making very good progress overall. While we have seen further gross profit margin contraction, most of this decline results from changes in business mix and does not reflect a change in our pricing discipline, and we remain very committed to ensuring sustainable and profitable growth over the long term. We continue to enhance our services and solutions with our investment in technology solutions and digital capabilities. These investments enhance candidate attraction and client satisfaction while improving our delivery models and employee productivity. For example, our associate and candidate app is leading the market in France, improving the engagement of all of our associates and candidates while also improving our own productivity in meeting our clients' needs for skilled talent. We've also enhanced our global cloud-based collaboration tools and upgraded our CRM tool to a fully integrated enterprise-wide cloud-based tool, which is helping to drive sales efficiency. We're enabling the operations to be increasingly high-touch and candidate-focused while driving productivity and process improvements by being increasingly high-tech. And with that, I'd like to turn it over to Jack to provide additional financial information and a review of our segment results and our third quarter outlook.

John McGinnis

Analyst

Thanks, Jonas. As Jonas mentioned, we had strong third quarter performance with constant currency operating growth on 4% constant currency revenue growth. Excluding the onetime gains in the year-ago period of $8 million related to pensions and properties, the operating profit growth represented 12%. This performance represented an operating profit margin expansion of 10 basis points over the prior year and represented the upper end of our guidance. Excluding the onetime gains in the prior year, the operating profit margin expansion represented 20 basis points in the quarter. Revenue growth came in between the lower end and the midpoint of our constant currency guidance range. Although our gross profit margin declined 40 basis points compared to the prior year, our SG&A cost once again improved as a percentage of revenue, driving the increased operating profit margin year-over-year. Looking at our revenue growth more closely, currency positively impacted revenues by 3% and acquisitions contributed about 30 basis points to our growth rate in the quarter. Therefore, revenues were up 7% on a reported basis, and our organic constant currency revenue growth in the quarter was 4%. After adjusting for billing days, this represents a 5% growth rate, reflecting a decrease from the second quarter of billing days adjusted organic constant currency growth rate of 7% due to the tougher prior year comparables. On a billing days adjusted basis, July and August experienced only moderate seasonal revenue growth, partly due to the non-recurrence of the Rio Olympics revenue from 2016. September ended the quarter with an accelerated revenue growth rate just above 6% on a billing days adjusted basis. Earnings per share of $2.04 was $0.10 above the midpoint of our guidance range. The drivers of this result include $0.03 attributable to better-than-expected operational performance, which included lower corporate expenses due to…

Jonas Prising

Analyst

Thanks, Jack. We continue to focus on our global objective of profitable growth and overall efficiency, while also investing in digital applications and process enhancements to meet the needs of our clients, candidates and employees. In this time of digital disruption impacting business models and consumer behavior, we provide our clients with our insight into skill shortages and the ability to find or develop the talent to meet their needs using our own proprietary research and data. Through our strong and connected brands, we can address our clients' complex talent challenges and provide them with successful workforce solutions, and in doing so, we also play an important role for individuals looking for employment opportunities as we can assess their learnability and help them up-skill their talents, so that they can bridge the gap between the supply and demand for skills. Our extensive offerings create value for both clients and candidates, and we benefit from the increase in demand for more flexibility and better workforce solutions across the globe, creating very good opportunities for future growth. The global economy continues to show favorable trends in many parts of the world, particularly across Europe. While the European economy has seen slow growth and we're cautious about the U.K. as they prepare to exit the EU, many data points indicate the potential for stronger economic growth, and so we are optimistic about the overall near-term outlook. We also see some improvement in the labor market outlook, with a great deal of optimism surrounding the recent reforms in France, which should benefit that economy and stimulate better employment growth. We recently published our Q4 ManpowerGroup Employment Outlook Survey, tracking forward-looking quarterly changes in employer sentiment, and that survey showed a similar trend of slowly improving employer hiring intent in all surveyed markets globally. Given the future of work trends, the economic backdrop and the secular trends of companies looking for increased strategic and operational flexibility, we believe our strategy will continue to work very well for us. We're pleased with our progress so far, with more opportunities for profitable growth in the future. And as Jack mentioned in his prepared remarks, we look forward to sharing our views on those future opportunities, our strategy and the resulting new financial targets during our year-end earnings call. And with that, I would now like to open the call for Q&A. Operator?

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions]. And our first question is from Andrew Steinerman.

Andrew Steinerman

Analyst

Jonas, those were thoughtful comments of why you're optimistic about the near term. And I was quite pleased and encouraged about the recent acceleration of revenue growth despite the tougher comps. When you look past the recent growth trend of 6%, what do you sense it would take to get the company into higher single-digit organic growth? Or is that kind of too far to think about?

Jonas Prising

Analyst

Well, I think that an improving -- first of all, good morning, Andrew, and thank you. The improving outlook for Europe clearly is something that is a positive for us. And as I mentioned and as Jack mentioned as well in his prepared remarks, we're seeing the overall outlook from an employer intention also to be quite positive and broad-based. Now when you look at our growth rates and we're pleased to see that September really came in stronger and our outlook is looking for more of the same into the fourth quarter, it's also important when you think about our growth is also including, of course, revenue growth that's tepid in the U.K. and the U.S. And if you remove that, you're looking at 8% to 9% growth rates for the company, which is a very strong growth rate already. So I would say that we have an opportunity both with improving European conditions and then as we continue to work on improving our performance in the U.S. and the U.K., we believe that we have some good revenue opportunity improvements there as well.

Operator

Operator

And the next question is from Hamzah Mazari.

Hamzah Mazari

Analyst

I just had a question on how you guys think about larger M&A. The last time you did a major deal was 7 years ago. There's not that much debt on the balance sheet. Maybe just help us think about -- do you find too much risk in larger staffing deals?

Jonas Prising

Analyst

Well, as you know, Hamzah, we've been -- we prefer organic growth because we think it's a better use of all of our capital, a better return to our shareholders. Because essentially in our industry, when you're buying a company in our industry, you're buying client contracts and people. And both of those may -- are subject to change. So we prefer organic growth. But if we are looking for M&A, then it's within the Experis business or the Solutions business. Those are the higher growth areas in the market as well as in terms of profitability. So I would say our stance has not changed. We are -- we would opportunistically look at acquisitions under the right conditions and, of course, supplying a very strong pricing discipline there in terms of valuation as well as very strong cultural fit and fit with our strategies. And we would see any acquisitions that we would make as platforms on which to accelerate organic growth as opposed to buying market share or anything like that. So our stance has not changed, and we're continuing down our path of preferring organic growth but looking at M&A as and when we think there's a good opportunity.

Hamzah Mazari

Analyst

Great. And just a follow-up question on the U.K. business. Do you have any sense of how much of that decline is cyclical versus maybe you're feeling an impact from Brexit? Just curious. And any sense you get from your customers in that business?

Jonas Prising

Analyst

Well, we think that the decision from -- to exit the EU is not going to be beneficial for the U.K. in the long term. Having said that, I would not tie our weakness in the U.K. to any immediate Brexit impact as far as we can tell. I'd say that life outside the greater London area appears to be doing quite well. For smaller businesses, they're carrying on and doing their business, and that's still a good area for us to see growth. I was very pleased to see that Manpower actually improved in the third quarter and is almost flat, frankly, compared to last year, so that's good. And Experis is working its way to getting better, and you saw that improvement as well. But that's primarily related to some major corporations that are making some changes. So if anything, I would say that you could anticipate larger companies may be pulling back or not making the investments that they otherwise would and/or preparing themselves. But in the case of our performance in the U.K., I would say, it's a -- a lot of it's to do with how we're positioned, and I'm pleased to see that we're making progress, but we still got some work to do.

Operator

Operator

And the next question is from Kevin McVeigh.

Kevin McVeigh

Analyst

Hey, real nice job. And really nice job kind of offsetting the CICE in kind of Q4. And Jack, you talked about $27 million in kind of a worst-case. If you think about potential levers in terms of offsets to that, is that primarily SG&A leverage? Or would you expect incremental leverage as that comes back from a revenue perspective in terms of -- just any thoughts on where the puts and takes would be on that $27 million offset in '18?

John McGinnis

Analyst

Yes. Kevin, I think it's going to be a combination of things. I think, first and foremost, we emphasized pricing discipline. And you've seen with been very disciplined in terms of pricing in France, and that certainly will continue. And then I would say, we are very focused on productivity enhancements, and that will certainly be part of the equation. I know in terms of France, we've talked about it, and I addressed it in my prepared remarks, what we're seeing on staffing margin side. And at the end of the second quarter, I emphasized that we are starting to see, in the month of June, some stabilization in what we're seeing in staffing margin. And we actually have seen that hold into the third quarter, which is a very positive sign. So as we've said, the business mix will have its impacts on margin overall, and we're certainly seeing that with some of the growth in Europe that we've been posting. But we do expect that after periods of growth, we will start to see some stabilization. And we talked about France, we -- as I mentioned, we've been growing for 5 quarters now. And in the third quarter, we did see that stabilization in that improvement in the staffing margin, and we would continue to look for that going forward as well.

Operator

Operator

And the next question is from Manav Patnaik.

Ryan Leonard

Analyst

This is Ryan on for Manav. Just a question -- or I mean, you've talked a lot the operational leverage that you're getting and some of the technology and CRM investments that you've had to make. Is that something that's ongoing? Is that something that you've kind of ran through and feel good about? Or is that going to be part of the ongoing operations in most of your countries?

Jonas Prising

Analyst

Ryan, the short answer is yes. We will continue to make investments in digital and in technology to improve our current business, and you can really think about it in 2 areas. And you could hear in my prepared remarks, I've talked about high-touch. So we continue to and we will continue to invest in tools and technologies that help us really create strong relationships and digital relationships with our candidates. And we think of our candidates really as consumers, of course. And as consumers, they have evolving preferences and evolving ways to engage with companies, and we expect that to be absolutely true for our business as well. So continue to do things that enhance our high-touch and our last-mile delivery capabilities, both from a client and, especially, from a candidate perspective on the one hand. And on the other hand, leveraging all opportunities for business enhancements and productivity and efficiency where we can really see opportunities in terms of improving the efficiency of the transactions that we have and, of course, also leveraging opportunities for machine-learning and things like that. So this is going to be an ongoing theme as we think that there are very, very significant opportunities for us on both of these sites, with the high-tech side -- high-touch side, as well as the high-tech side. So that's something that you can anticipate that we've -- we've been doing this now for a number of years and part of the results that you've seen us deliver have been thanks to that. And that's something that you can think of us continuing to do in the future as well.

Ryan Leonard

Analyst

And then, obviously, you mentioned the margin targets and we're looking for an update there. I mean is there further clarity that you need it all, whether it be regulatory items in France? Or are there any other things that you're waiting for? Is it simply just waiting for the end of the year to provide an update?

Jonas Prising

Analyst

So we think that end of the year, closing, as well as looking out over the new year, I think, is a perfect time to talk about our strategy, how we feel about the future. And I think as you've heard in our prepared remarks, we think of our strategy as solid. We want to go through a few of the levers and then, as a result of that, talk about our financial targets. And year-end, I think, is a great time to do that.

Operator

Operator

And the next question is from Tim McHugh.

Timothy McHugh

Analyst

I guess, first, you made a comment -- I guess that -- about you saw the 6% percent growth in September and you're assuming that continues into the fourth quarter. I think, Jonas, you even said even though comparisons get tougher month-by-month, I guess what -- given you made that comment, I guess, what gives you confidence relative to the tougher comparisons? Are there kind of leading indicators you can point us to that's kind of, I guess, improving the underlying growth rate and against a tough comp?

John McGinnis

Analyst

Tim, this is Jack. I'll take that one. When we look into the fourth quarter, I think despite the comps, what we're really seeing is strong -- continued very strong growth in France and Italy. And I think that is despite -- and that's in France despite the comps. So I think that probably helps frame up why you're seeing that improvement from the trend we saw from the quarter overall in the third quarter. So I'd say those are the main -- those are going to be the main drivers. I think as we've talked another couple of items to consider was we did say that we expect the U.S. to get slightly better in the fourth quarter as well. So that will have an impact. And as Jonas just referred to in terms of the U.K., what we're seeing in the U.K. as relatively stable to slightly improving into the fourth quarter as well. So 2 of the countries that have been kind of bigger declines we see moving in a different direction into the fourth quarter. And I think when you combine that to what we're seeing in Southern Europe particularly, that's what's really driving that higher growth into the fourth quarter.

Timothy McHugh

Analyst

Okay, that's helpful. And can I just ask, the CICE -- you made the comments about 2018. Any updated comments or thoughts on how we think about that in 2019 given the most recent kind of budget proposals?

John McGinnis

Analyst

Yes. I'd say on 2019, what was introduced as part of the draft budget was the framework to move from the tax credit to a reduction of social costs. However, at this point, there just really isn't enough detail around that for us to be able to model that out and give a precise estimate. I think probably the more important issue is the details will need to be introduced as part of the budget for 2019, and we expect that in September of 2018. And although there may be some more discussion of the some of the framework and the plan to go there, really, there's going to be a lot of ongoing discussion between corporate France and the government on that topic. And we think that there is potential that, that may be considered, and there is a chance that the draft could be adjusted from what's been discussed. And that will add the detail that we'll need to be able to do a more -- to be able to give a little bit more guidance on that. But as of right now, we'd say it's a bit too early to be able to do that.

Timothy McHugh

Analyst

And you really wouldn't -- kind of regardless of what we hear, almost it sounds like it's probably not finalized for a year or so here now before when we'll really know what's going to happen.

John McGinnis

Analyst

They did say that they -- as part of the Social Security-related guidance, they may comment on it towards year-end. But we don't expect that, at this point, that's going to provide the detail we would need. And we think it's going to be similar to some of the high-level comments I've made. We'll see if that changes. And if it does, we'll certainly give an update at year-end. But right now, we're not expecting, in the very short term, a lot of detail to -- before the budget process for 2019 is prepared.

Operator

Operator

And the next question is from Gary Bisbee.

Gary Bisbee

Analyst

I guess a couple of questions. On the U.S., just any update you can provide on the trends there? And I guess on 2 fronts, right, the revenue continues to disappoint, but yet, the profitability continues to improve in the face of falling revenue. It would seem to me at some point that gets difficult to continue to deliver, and yet, you've been doing it for years. I guess, so how much of it is the mix to more of solutions-type stuff with better margins? And is there a point at which, if revenue doesn't get better, you're going to start to see the margin really suffer?

Jonas Prising

Analyst

Thanks, Gary. Yes, no. As you point out, we've -- despite a tougher revenue environment, especially on Manpower and Experis, we continue to perform well from a gross profit percentage perspective as well as operating margin and in absolute dollars. So the team is doing a good job. And I think you can think about it in this way. We want to make sure we get back to market. So we are not satisfied with where we are, but we want to make sure we get there in the right way. The labor market in the U.S. is extremely tight, hard to find people. So we want to make sure as we take on more business and replace business that has moved out that we do it in a way that is profitable, and Jack talked earlier about our pricing discipline, so that's really what we're applying. So you can see the margins improve quite significantly. So the teams are really applying good pricing discipline, replacing some lower margin business and higher revenue with higher-margin business that doesn't compensate on the top line but helps compensate on the GP dollar line. So I would say that we're clear that we want to make progress to getting back to where market is. That's what the team is focused on. And although we're disappointed that we didn't see as much of an improvement we'd hoped for, we are confident. We have new leadership that is driving this. The team is very focused. They know what they're doing. And we're just going to keep working at it and making sure that we make the progress while maintaining the pricing discipline that we're looking for.

John McGinnis

Analyst

And I would just add to that. In terms of the U.S. overall, to your point, Gary, Solutions, we did expand margins in Solutions in the quarter, and that certainly helped. But we also expanded margin in Manpower. And I think that's key. And I think that demonstrates what we're doing in the U.S. in terms of the focus on our existing business. So it's not just the Solutions mix. It's also what we're doing as part of the core staffing businesses as well.

Gary Bisbee

Analyst

And then just to follow up on Europe, you continue to have excellent growth in Southern Europe and, clearly, a lot of the economic indicators and GDP growth have improved. But if we just look at the long-term historical performance in a market like France, while GDP's gotten better, it's still relatively low in absolute terms, and it -- historically, the industry has not been able to sustain this kind of growth at this level of economic growth. Is there anything going on that's really different today? And what's the risk that, that moderates quite a bit at some point unless growth gets a lot better?

Jonas Prising

Analyst

And as you point out, Gary, the growth rate in France is one of the lowest growth rates. And whilst we feel good about the growth rate now improving in France in absolute terms, it's still well behind the average in Europe. So that's actually part of the optimism that we have is that French economy improves -- and Italy's growth rate isn't very good either. So we think that can actually be good for us there as well. But I think you have to combine the cyclical elements with the secular elements as well, which is that in an environment that is increasingly global, volatile in terms of outlook and being able to predict what's going to be happening, our belief is as companies want more operational and strategic flexibility so that they can adjust to a business environment that sometimes gets disrupted by external events or by technological evolution or global competitive pressures. And we think that's a driver there as well. And if you look then from that perspective, even at the penetration rates that we're having in France and the penetration rates in Italy, you can see that we still have a gap to go just to get back to prior peak in France. And of course from an Italian perspective, we have surpassed the prior peak, but the peak of the current penetration rate of 1.3% in Italy is half of what corresponding countries would be. So I think that, that can be part of an explanation why although the economy growth environment hasn't been very good, the use and need for our services is increasing from our client portfolio, and that's why we've really seen this trend. And then remember, just as we went through a slow but steady growth environment here in the States, that's really been the case in Europe except I would characterize Europe as being in the middle innings of that evolution. And so that's why we think that we can still think of Europe as providing good opportunities both from where they are in the cycle on average, which, of course, not all countries are there, and also where they are from a secular perspective in terms of our services. And that's -- they're still ways away from their peak, and we think that can be good. And we actually believe then we will surpass the peak just as we've done here in the U.S. and with record high penetration rates here in the U.S., and that's what we expect to happen in Europe as well.

Operator

Operator

And the next question is from Mark Marcon.

Mark Marcon

Analyst

I'm wondering if you can talk just a little bit more about what you're seeing in the U.S. with regards to IT just in terms of when we would fully expect things to kind of normalize from an operational perspective in terms of the improvement initiatives that you have. And then if you could just talk about the U.K. a little bit longer term as it relates to the Brexit impact in terms of how you see that unfolding over the next year or so.

Jonas Prising

Analyst

Sure. Thanks, Mark. From an Experis IT perspective, I would say, the market is still solid. There are orders there. Finding qualified candidates is -- it continues to be very difficult. Many of our candidates and our consultants have 2 to 3 job offers. And so, of course, the scarcity of talent means we have some degree of pricing power in the areas where we are looking for those candidates, which I think is reflected in our business, but at the same time, replacing and finding a lot of the consultants that we need is taking longer than we'd like. And that's why it's hard to put a time line on it, but we would hope to see some improvement coming into the fourth quarter and then continue to chip away at this. I don't think it's going to be a very quick resolution, but I think we're looking for good and solid and steady progress. And we'd seen some progress earlier in the year. This quarter is a little bit of a step-back looking forward to see that trend carry on, on a year basis, really and then moving into the next year. And as Jack talked about, our pricing discipline as well as what we're doing with process enhancement and technology is really helping us deliver good bottom line results, nevertheless. But we're clear that we need to continue to work on it. I'm confident in the leadership. So I think we'll continue to see progress there, although the pace of that is a little bit harder to predict. And then in terms of the U.K., frankly, it's kind of difficult to know what the overall outlook is. When we say that we don't think Brexit is a good idea, in this world of -- in this future…

Operator

Operator

And the next question is from Anj Singh.

Anjaneya Singh

Analyst

A little bit of a follow-up on some of the earlier ones. Could you expand on the opportunities you're seeing for greater efficiencies in France? Is the productivity there going to be driven by restructuring, lower headcount? Or is it predicated on some of the technological advancements that you folks referenced? Just trying to understand the drivers there a bit better.

Jonas Prising

Analyst

Well, I think, on the one hand, I think we talked about in our prepared remarks about some of the technology tools that we have and that we see the outlook positively for France, which means we could grow, leveraging technology and process enhancements and see some good leverage on that side. And as we've noted many times before, we are constantly striving for better productivity and better processes to serve our clients and our candidates and our associates better and our employees as well, of course, and that's something that will continue. So I think we have opportunities to continue to do that in France as we have in, really, all of our operations.

Anjaneya Singh

Analyst

Okay. Got it. And one last one, could you provide some more color on the on-site business additions you referenced earlier? I believe those are with regards to the U.S. What is this being driven by? How broad-based is it? Just trying to get a sense on how material it may be towards moderating the decline in the region.

John McGinnis

Analyst

Anj, the on-site work is primarily Manpower business related in the U.S. And what I was referring to is some recent wins that we expect will drive some improvement in that revenue trend that we referred to from the third quarter into the fourth quarter. So we'll give a little more color on that in the fourth quarter in terms of the significance to the quarter overall, but really the reference was there's some good momentum in the business overall. The on-site is an important part of our strategy for the Manpower brand. And referencing those wins gives us the direction of that revenue trend into the fourth quarter, getting slightly better from what we had seen into the third quarter. So that's really was the context that we were trying to bring across.

Jonas Prising

Analyst

Thanks, everyone, and thanks for dialing in for our earnings call. We look forward to speaking with all of you again when we release our fourth quarter earnings results some time in January. Thanks, everyone.

Operator

Operator

Thank you, everyone, and that concludes today's conference. Thank you all for joining. You may now all disconnect.