Operator
Operator
Welcome to the ManpowerGroup's Third Quarter Earnings Results Conference Call. All participants will be able to listen only until the question-and-answer session begins. This call is being recorded. If you have any objections, you may disconnect at this time. Now, I'll turn the meeting over to your host, CEO, Jonas Prising. Sir, you may begin. Jonas Prising - Chief Executive Officer & Director: Good morning and welcome to the third quarter 2015 conference call. With me is our Chief Financial Officer, Mike Van Handel. I will start our call by going through some of the highlights for the third quarter and then Mike will go through the details of each segment, the relevant balance sheet items, cash flow as well as forward-looking items for the fourth quarter. Then, I'll be back for some additional thoughts before our Q&A session. But before we go any further into our call, Mike will now read the Safe Harbor language. Mike Van Handel - Executive Vice President & Chief Financial Officer: Good morning, everyone. This conference call includes forward-looking statements, which are subject to known and unknown risks and uncertainties. These statements are based on management's current expectations or beliefs. Actual results might differ materially from those projected in the forward-looking statements. Additional information concerning factors that could cause actual results to materially differ from those in the forward-looking statements can be found on the company's Annual Report on Form 10-K and in the other Securities and Exchange Commission filings of the company, which information, is incorporated herein by reference. Any forward-looking statement in today's call speaks only as of the date of which it is made and we assume no obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statements. During our call today, we will reference certain non-GAAP financial measures, which we believe provide useful information for investors and include a reconciliation of those measures, where appropriate, to GAAP on the Investor Relations section of our website at manpowergroup.com. Jonas Prising - Chief Executive Officer & Director: Our third quarter performance was good in an uneven external environment. Revenue was slightly softer than anticipated, while gross margin performance aided by permanent recruitment in our Solutions business was at the high end of our expectations, and with good cost management, this resulted in good earnings growth. Our revenues were $5 billion in the third quarter, up 6% from prior year in constant currency. We managed this revenue and gross profit growth in a disciplined way and had nice flow-through resulting in good leverage with our operating profit increasing to $206 million, an increase of 13% in constant currency, and an operating margin increase of 20 basis points compared to the same time period last year. This resulted in our earnings per share coming in at $1.61, the same as last year in U.S. dollars, but 16% above last year in constant currency, a good performance. We had anticipated that the market conditions in Europe and elsewhere would be somewhat patchy and that is an effect what we saw in our business during the quarter. We saw parts of the U.S. economy soften further, notably in the manufacturing sector. Europe is a region where some countries seem to be well on their way to recovery, while others are still struggling to get traction. Emerging markets were generally strong in the quarter, but countries with significant exposure to commodity markets or the Chinese market are starting to feel more sluggish. We believe that parts of the global market are experiencing softening market conditions for a variety of reasons, and that the strength of the global recovery will continue to be uneven, particularly in some countries in Asia, Latin America and Europe. Our belief is that Europe overall, though, is still early in its economic cycle. And although it may be choppy over the near term in some markets, we should still be able to see good growth opportunities there as we move through the economic cycle. And this is also true for the U.S. market. Despite softer manufacturing environment, there will be opportunities and those are the ones we're focused on. This is certainly not an ideal situation, in terms of overall global economic growth, but having said that, we believe this environment can still present us with good opportunities for profitable growth by helping our clients navigate this uncertain environment. Having just been in Asia, Europe and North America and meeting many of our clients, I'm pleased to let you know that, as they experience the rapidly changing environment, they are more interested in workforce flexibility and solutions to their talent challenges. ManpowerGroup is a strong and trusted partner that can help guide them through this market volatility, which should present us with good opportunities for growth going forward. From what we hear from our clients right now, I believe we are in a soft patch with economic growth expectations coming down in a number of markets, but, in many cases, still progressing compared to the prior year both in terms of economic growth and an improving labor market. And at this time, we don't see any signs of a broad-based global deceleration and downturn. We will continue to look at opportunities with that lens and not be shortsighted in terms of adding sales people and recruiters in the markets where we see growth opportunities. That said, we remain focused on generating profitable revenue growth with disciplined pricing and strong productivity management so we can drive operational performance improvement, even if global market conditions continue to be patchy and uneven and markets improve only at a modest pace in the short-term. Mike and I will provide some more details on thoughts and our view of the market as we go though the rest of the call. As always, thanks to our entire ManpowerGroup team for delivering good results again this quarter, and our focus is now on finishing the year strong and preparing to drive our progress into next year as well. And with that, I would like to turn it over to Mike for some additional information and detail on the segments. Mike Van Handel - Executive Vice President & Chief Financial Officer: Thanks, Jonas. As Jonas mentioned, our operating profit growth in the quarter was solid, up 12.7% in constant currency on revenue growth of 5.8%. Our operating profit margin was up 30 basis points in constant currency as we continue to focus on driving expanded margins in line with the path we laid out to achieve our 4% EBITDA margin objective. Our earnings per share of $1.61 exceeded the midpoint of our guidance by $0.07 per share. $0.03 of this over-performance was operational, $0.03 was due to a lower share count as a result of share repurchases, $0.01 was due to a slightly lower than forecasted tax rate, $0.01 was due to lower other expense, and there was a negative $0.01 impact from currency. The FX impact on earnings per share was a negative $0.25 in the quarter, compared to forecast of $0.24. Revenues were negatively impacted 14% by FX compared to a forecast of 13%. The operational outperformance was primarily driven by a higher gross profit margin and strong expense management. Also contributing to the operational outperformance was the acquisition of 7S in Germany, which closed in early September and was planned for late September. 7S added 0.7% to our revenue growth rate in the quarter, but was neutral from an operating profit standpoint after considering closing costs and amortization of intangibles. Our gross profit margin came in at the higher end of our guidance range at 17.1%, 40 basis points up from the prior year. About 20 basis points of this improvement was driven by strong growth in permanent recruitment fees in the quarter, which were up 14.6% over the prior year in constant currency. Another 20 basis points of improvement simply comes from the FX impact on changes in business mix. While growth rates in permanent recruitment have moderated slightly with increasingly more difficult prior year comparables, we continue to view the market as being healthy with good growth opportunity. I'll touch on this in more detail during my segment reviews. Now, let's review our gross profit by business line. The gross profit was comprised of 64% from the Manpower brand, 20% from Experis, 11% from ManpowerGroup Solutions and 5% from Right Management. In line with our overall professional and solution diversification strategy, ManpowerGroup Solutions and Experis had the highest growth rate in the quarter. Our higher margin, higher value ManpowerGroup Solutions business includes our global market-leading RPO and MSP offerings and Proservia. During the quarter, gross margin improved by 17% in constant currency and, combined with good expense management resulted in a strong profit contribution, up 25% in constant currency. Within Experis, approximately 60% of our gross profit is comprised of IT skills, with the balance including engineering, finance and other specialty skills. Our Experis gross profit growth was 12% in constant currency in the quarter, which is driven by continued solid demand for IT skills across several markets. Similar to last quarter, our Manpower brand achieved 4% constant currency gross profit growth in the quarter. Within Manpower, 60% of the gross profit is derived from industrial skills and 40% from office and clerical skills. In the quarter, we saw gross profit growth of 3% in constant currency from industrial skills, slightly softer than the 5% growth we saw last quarter. Gross profit from office and clerical skills was flat compared to the prior year with slight improvement over the prior quarter. Within Right Management, we provide clear transition in our placement services along with talent management services. Right Management achieved 7% constant currency gross profit growth with expanding margins. I will discuss Right later in my segment review. SG&A in the quarter was $646 million, a decline of 6.9% in U.S. dollars, an increase of 5.3% in constant currency. If we exclude the SG&A costs related to the 7S acquisition, our SG&A increased 3.9% in constant currency during the quarter. Most of this growth relates to additional head count in our growth markets necessary to capture those opportunities. We remain keenly focused on driving productivity throughout our field network on an organic basis. In constant currency, our SG&A, as a percentage of revenue, improved by 10 basis points, reflecting positive leverage in a lower revenue growth environment. Now, let's turn to the operational performance of our segments. The Americas comprised 23% of company revenues with revenue of $1.1 billion and OUP of $59 million. OUP growth was solid, up 9% in constant currency and revenue growth up 3%. OUP margin expanded 40 basis points to 5.2% primarily as a result of gross margin expansion. The gross margin expansion was driven by strong price discipline, as well as strong growth in permanent recruitment, which was up 14% in constant currency. Revenue growth in the quarter softened slightly from what we saw in the previous quarter. As U.S. revenue trends weakened, while revenue trends in other Americas improved, primarily driven by improving growth in Mexico and Argentina. The U.S. is the largest operation within the Americas representing about two thirds of segment revenue. Revenues in the U.S. were down 4% compared to the prior year, reflecting softer demand for many of our larger key accounts, particularly in the light industrial area. As you are well aware, the manufacturing and export area of the economy has been weakening. And we certainly have felt the impact of this from our clients in this market. Despite the contraction on the top line, the U.S. had a very good OUP performance, delivering $46 million, up 9% over prior year for an OUP margin of 5.9%, up 70 basis points over the prior year. This margin expansion was driven by an improved gross profit margin, as well as highly effective management of SG&A costs, which were flat year-on-year. The gross margin expansion was a result of improved pricing as well as effective management of healthcare costs, workers compensation and unemployment costs. Permanent recruitment was also additive to the gross margin and was up 16% year-over-year. While we continue to see a healthy recruitment market in the U.S., the pace of hiring appears to have moderated somewhat from what we saw in the first half of the year. Within the U.S., our Manpower brand comprised 44% of gross profit. Manpower revenue was down 6% in the quarter compared to the prior year. Our industrial segment was a primary contributor to the weaker revenue growth as our industrial revenue was down 9% in the quarter. Our Experis brand comprises 39% of U.S. gross profit and saw revenue contract by 2% year-on-year. This is a slight improvement from the 3% decline we saw on the first half of the year. Our ManpowerGroup Solutions continues to do quite well in the U.S. market as our clients are requesting more sophisticated workforce solutions providing them with agility. Our ManpowerGroup Solutions had gross profit growth of 12%. Profitability was also strong as expenses were well-managed. Our Mexico operation had a very good quarter with revenue growth improving to 15% in constant currency. We saw revenue growth and profit growth across all of our brand offerings in Mexico, resulting in a strong profit performance. Our business in Argentina continues on the path to recovery with revenue growth of 50% in constant currency and billable hour growth expanding from 8% last quarter to 15% this quarter. While the market has been difficult in Argentina for number of quarters, we are now starting to experience a return to volume growth. Revenue growth in other Americas – revenue growth in other markets in the Americas was solid, up 9% in constant currency primarily driven by very nice growth in Central America and Peru. Not surprisingly, revenue in Brazil has contracted compared to the prior year, as demand for our services has weakened in the recessionary environment. Our Southern Europe segment, which represents 37% of company revenue, had a very good performance in the quarter. Revenues were up 8% in constant currency to $1.8 billion and OUP reached $100 million, an increase of 13% in constant currency. OUP margin was up 30 basis points as a result of an improved gross margin coming from strong price discipline in our staffing business and good growth in permanent recruitment of 17% in constant currency. Our largest operation in Southern Europe is France, which represents 68% of segment revenue. Revenues in France improved 2% in constant currency to $1.2 billion and OUP was up 6% in constant currency to $75 million in the quarter. OUP margin improved 20 basis points to 6% primarily driven by expansion in gross margin. We have maintained very strong price discipline in France in the face of a more competitive pricing environment. As expected, the market has priced in more of the responsibility tax subsidies as we have made our ways through the year. As we have noted in previous calls, revenue growth in France has been choppy. That said, the revenue trend improved as we made our way through the quarter. While July and August were fairly flat against difficult prior year comparables, September was quite good, accelerating to 6%. We saw this improved growth rate continue into the first few weeks of October. Revenue in Italy was very strong in the quarter, up 31% in constant currency to $324 million. We continue to see the early signs of a cyclical recovery in Italy as well as a strong secular push towards flexible workforce solutions. We also benefited from our contract with the Milano Expo, where we have been appointed the human resources premium partner. The Expo winds down at the end of October, so we will also have a revenue contribution from the Expo for a portion of the fourth quarter. OUP in Italy was $18 million, an improvement of 42% in constant currency over the prior year and OUP margin expansion of 40 basis points to 5.4%. This margin expansion was driven by higher gross margin and SG&A leverage. Permanent recruitment continued to be strong in the quarter, up 37% in constant currency. Revenue in Spain also continues to be strong, up 29% in constant currency. OUP was up 68% in constant currency on stable gross margins and good SG&A leverage. While the year-on-year growth rate remains very healthy, we are starting to see it moderate as you would expect as the base gets larger. This is the seventh consecutive quarter of organic constant currency growth north of 20% in Spain. Our Northern Europe segment comprise 28% of revenue in the quarter and was up 3% in constant currency to $1.4 billion. OUP was down 3% in constant currency to $50 million. OUP margin was down 10 basis points to 3.7% as a result of the de-levering impact from a few of the contracting markets. Similar to the first half of the year, we are seeing a mix of performances across the Northern Europe segment. Revenue growth in the UK was up 1% in constant currency. As I called out last quarter, the growth rate in the UK declined this quarter, primarily as a result of lower demand under one of our large client contracts. In addition to this, we did see a softening in demand in the UK market during the quarter, especially from some of our large clients in the public services sector. While the UK market for staffing services appears to be fairly stable at the moment, we do expect contraction in our fourth quarter UK revenue growth as this large client contract winds down further. Growth in permanent recruitment moderated somewhat, but remains healthy up 20% year-over-year in constant currency. Revenue growth in the Nordics was up 1% in constant currency, our two main countries in the Nordics are Sweden and Norway. During the quarter, the Swedish market continued its path of recovery with revenue growth up 11% in constant currency, which drove strong OUP growth and margin expansion. The Norwegian market, on the other hand, is struggling given its dependence on the oil economy. Our Norway growth rate was down 7% in constant currency with the decline in OUP margin as a result of severe price pressure and SG&A deleveraging. Revenue growth in Germany was up 27% in constant currency. This includes revenue from the 7S acquisition, which closed in early September. On an organic basis, revenue in Germany was very good up 8% in constant currency. Revenue in the Netherlands and Belgium contracted slightly in constant currency. As we discussed on previous calls, we have maintained strong price discipline in the Netherlands resulting in the loss of few large accounts at the end of last year. We are seeing improving opportunities in the Dutch market. And as we anniversary these lost accounts at the end of this year, we expect to be back to growth next year. Other markets in Northern Europe were mixed with good growth in Poland being offset by revenue declines in Austria and Russia. Our Asia Pacific Middle East segment had a strong quarter with revenues up 12% in constant currency to $570 million, and OUP up 27% in constant currency to $24 million. OUP margin expanded 50 basis points to 4.2% as a result of improved gross margin and good SG&A expense leveraging. Revenue growth was helped by the previously announced Greythorn acquisition in Australia that closed in the second quarter. This acquisition added about 7% to the segment revenue growth rate, but did not impact OUP margin. Revenue growth in Japan was 1% in constant currency, slightly softer than what we saw in the first half of the year. While trends seem to be slowly improving earlier in the year, growth appears to have paused with the slowdown in exports to China. Revenues in Australia were up 23% in constant currency, if we include the Greythorn acquisition. On an organic basis, revenues were down 2% in constant currency, as we continue to see weakness in the Australian economy reflected in the demand for our services. Revenue in other markets in Asia Pacific Middle East improved to 15% in constant currency. This was driven by good growth in several markets including China, India, Korea, Taiwan, and Malaysia. As we move into the fourth quarter, we expect these strong growth rates to moderate as these markets begin to feel the impact of the China slowdown. Revenue at Right Management was up 1% in constant currency to $67 million. OUP was up 75% in constant currency to $11 million for an OUP margin of 16%. This strong performance was primarily driven by good performance in career management, where we were able to capitalize on good opportunities in the U.S. market. Our career management business was up 4% in constant currency, while talent management was down 5%. Gross margin improved in both career management and talent management, which contributed to the OUP margin expansion. Next, I'd like to discuss our balance sheet and cash flow. Free cash flow, defined as cash from operations less capital expenditures, was $250 million for the first nine months of the year and $231 million in the third quarter. This includes the sale of the 2014 French CIC tax credit in July for $130 million. Our cash flow also improved due to reduction in days sales outstanding, which was one day lower in the third quarter compared to the prior year. Cash used for acquisitions for the nine months of the year was $241 million, which includes the acquisition of 7S in September of this year. Also during the quarter, we repurchased 3.8 million shares of common stock for $336 million, bringing our year-to-date share repurchases to 6 million shares for $523 million. This concludes our share repurchase program under the 2012 authorization. We intend to request a new authorization for share repurchases from our board of directors later this month as we continue to see share repurchases along with our dividend policy as an effective way to return cash to shareholders. In September of this year, we issued €400 million notes with a seven-year term and effective fixed interest rate of 1.9%. As of quarter end, our total debt balances stepped up to $879 million and our net debt balance was $226 million. With this additional borrowing, our total debt to capitalization increases to 25%, which is more in line with historic levels. Additionally, our ratio of total debt-to-EBITDA on a trailing 12-month basis remains very comfortable at just over one time. In addition to the €400 million note we recently issued, we also have a €350 million note maturing in June of 2018 and also €45 million drawn on other smaller lines, bringing our total borrowings to $879 million. We continue to maintain our $600 million revolving credit facility, which was unused at the end of the quarter. In September of this year, we extended the term of this facility another two years to September of 2020. Finally, I'd like to give you our thoughts on the fourth quarter. We see the current staffing environment as patchy. with some markets like France improving, while other markets like the U.S. slowing down in certain segments. With that, we believe that the revenue growth in the fourth quarter should range between 6% and 8% in constant currency, which translates into a reduction of between 1% and 3% in U.S. dollars, based upon where exchange rates are today. We expect the revenue growth in the fourth quarter to be slightly stronger than that of the third quarter, but this primarily relates to the growth from acquisitions that we closed late in the third quarter in Canada and Germany. On an organic basis, we expect revenue growth in the fourth quarter to be a touch softer than that of the third quarter in constant currency. In the Americas, we expect growth to range between 3% and 5% in constant currency, while in Southern Europe, we expect it to improve to between 8% and 10% in constant currency. Northern Europe will be aided by the 7S acquisition, and as a result, we expect revenue growth between 5% and 7% in constant currency. In Asia Pacific and Right Management, we expect fourth quarter growth to be similar to that of the third quarter in constant currency, ranging from 11% to 13% in Asia Pacific Middle East and 0% to 2% at Right Management. We expect gross profit margin to range between 17% and 17.2%, a slight improvement over the prior year on continued strength in permanent recruitment fees. We expect our operating profit margin to range between 3.7% and 3.9% and our tax rate at 36.5%. This will result in earnings per share in the range of $1.47 to $1.55 per share, which assumes a weighted average share count of 75 million shares. As is always the case, this earnings guidance does not consider any further share repurchases or non-recurring items which may occur in the fourth quarter. As you begin to look out to 2016, especially the first quarter, there are a few factors to consider. First off, the major headwind we have experienced all this year from currency will go away in the first quarter if exchange rates remain where they are today, as the average euro exchange rate in the first quarter of last year was $1.12, which is very close to where we are right now. The three acquisitions that closed in 2015, Greythorn in June and 7S and Veritaaq in September, will be additive to year-on-year revenue growth of about 3% in the first half of next year and slightly less than 2% for the full year. While they will also be additive to operating profit, I do not expect them to have a meaningful impact on the operating profit margin after considering amortization costs. Impacting the gross margin will be the requirement to provide healthcare costs for our associates in France beginning January of 2016. While we typically look to pass on such cost increases through increased pricing, this may be difficult, given the competitive market conditions in France. This cost increase will be somewhat mitigated by an increase in the family welfare subsidy, which is scheduled to take effect in April of next year. With these two elements combined, I expect to see some downward pressure on staffing gross margins in France in 2016, and especially in the first quarter, as we will have the cost increase related to healthcare and not the reduced subsidy from the family welfare. As we look forward, we remain committed to reaching our EBITDA margin target of 4%. Based upon fourth-quarter guidance, we expect to close out 2015 around 3.8%. This sets us up well for 2016, if we are able to get a slight acceleration in market growth from where we are today. With that, I'd like to turn the call back to Jonas. Jonas Prising - Chief Executive Officer & Director: Thanks, Mike. The third quarter was a good quarter for us. With good execution in a choppy environment, we delivered good top and bottom line growth in constant currency. As you can tell from a near-term outlook, this is not an environment of accelerating economic growth, but as I mentioned earlier in the call, we also do not see this as the beginning of a more sustained global downturn. I'm not an economist, but based on where we see the U.S. and in particular Europe, our view is that both those regions could be seeing better growth in 2016 compared to 2015, notwithstanding some softness and choppiness in parts of those economies. Companies, I speak with, all intend to build their organizations to be more agile and to be able to deliver value in shorter time frames as they adjust to cycles or disruptive changes within an industry or a specific geography. The unrivaled global breath and national coverage in 80 countries of our Manpower business will continue to give us great opportunities for temporary as well as permanent workforce solutions as it gives organizations greater flexibility to meet their opportunities and challenges. And we saw some great examples of this during the quarter in Italy, Spain, Mexico and Sweden. We are also seeing strong performance not only in some bigger developed markets, but also some very strong performance in terms of double-digit revenue growth in countries like Peru, India, China and Poland. And that's exciting to see since we have such a strong footprint in emerging markets. This is also the kind of economic environment where organizations large and small want to focus on their core business and leave non-core activities with us, as a workforce solutions leader. One of the reasons we continue to see such great performance in our Solutions business was strong double-digit growth in RPO, MSP as well as in Proservia. Companies are increasing their investment in and use of technology to drive productivity and meet their evolving client demands. But yet the rapidly changing technology space means they will want to use workforce solutions that provides skill sets that match the need for the new technologies and not be trapped in inverted workforce pyramids that better serves the yesterday's technology needs, and that is precisely what our Experis business is there to help them with, providing higher skill talent or project for permanent positions or specific talent solutions in developed as well as emerging markets. And finally, the need to attract, retain and develop top talent is of course of upmost concern to most organizations and that is where Right Management's career expertise can add significant value to organizations and their employees as well. All this said, I believe we are seeing a structural evolution where just in time access to talent will be of the upmost importance, and as such, a secular growth opportunity for us on top of the cyclical growth we should expect when economies that are struggling right now get back on track. Our clients are increasingly looking for workforce solutions that can help them across multiple operations, have seamless delivery across brands and countries and combine offerings in a way that help them adjust to whatever the market conditions maybe like and we intend to be their preferred partner in this journey. Our unrivaled global footprint with market leading coverage of emerging markets, our strong global brands that can be combined to form unique and innovative workforce solutions and our particular strength in the Solutions business with RPO, MSP and Proservia IT end user talent based solutions, make me very optimistic that we're well positioned for continued success as the leading global workforce solutions company. A great example of a unique workforce solutions is our all encompassing support of the Milano Expo in Italy, which is a great example of how we can bring all of our businesses and brands together to solve large scale people and process intensive projects, a tremendous success for our Italian business which could not have been possible without the support of all of our brands and our geographic footprint. So, in summarizing the third quarter results, we're pleased to see their efforts in driving disciplined revenue growth are continuing to show progress. And we will remain committed to seizing growth opportunities aligned with our strategies also in the future, achieving good leverage on that growth and continuing to build a diversified business. The balance of pursuing good revenue growth opportunities with disciplined pricing and strong cost vigilance will be very important as the overall global situation is still evolving and uncertain. Hence, I anticipate that we could be buffeted by some volatility and that some markets may pause for some time before picking up steam again. Our aim is to improve our performance even under those uncertain conditions with our strong experienced management team committed to driving profitable growth. We will adjust as needed, so we can continue building on the progress we've made so far in the year. And with that, we come to the end of our prepared remarks and I would ask the operator to start our Q&A session.