Earnings Labs

Lloyds Banking Group plc (LYG)

Q2 2019 Earnings Call· Thu, Aug 1, 2019

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Transcript

Antonio Lorenzo

Management

Thank you, António, and good morning, everybody. I am delighted to be here today to tell you about the great progress we are making in Insurance and Wealth. Our financial performance has been a strong in recent years with new business premiums up 72% versus the first half of 2017. This is a result of growth across multiple business lines including corporate pensions and the step-up in auto enrolment contributions as well as growth in individual protection. As I will show you today, we have also grow share in other areas that we have heavily invested in and prioritized, such as home insurance where our offering has been transformed following three platforming. Given this new income is up 23% over the same period more than an offsetting runoff from longstanding products. These growth combined with a strong cost control in the period for an increased digitization has supported a 58% increase in underline profit over the last two years. The business is now an increasing contributor to the Group, representing 38% of other income in the first half of 2019, up 7 percentage points year-on-year. The business has also upstream around £7 billion of cumulative dividends since 2011. Insurance and Wealth is a uniquely positioned, integrated business with a comprehensive proposition across multiple product lines, leveraging the group multi-brand and multi-channel model. Since 2015, we have received the business to be leaner and more customer centric, while significantly increasing investment. As a result, we are in a better place to harness the considerable operational and financial synergies arising for being part of a wider banking group. Looking ahead, we are well positioned to capture further growth across a number of fast-growing and attractive markets, as well as deepening engagement with our customers. I will now discuss some of these areas…

George Culmer

Management

Thank you, António, and good morning, everybody. As you've heard in the first half, we've delivered a good financial performance with underlying profit in line with prior year of £4.2 billion. Net income of £8.8 billion is down 2%, but more than offset by a 5% reduction in costs while impairments remain in line with expectations. Statutory profit after tax is £2.2 billion and down 4% due to increase below the line charges, particularly PPI and I would discuss these shortly. Turning first to net interest income, NII is £6.1 billion and down 3% due to a £3 billion reduction in average interest earning assets and a margin in line with guidance at 290 basis points. On average interest earning assets the movement reflects the continued runoff of the close mortgage book of £2 billion and sale last year of the Irish business of £3 billion, both of which are offset by continued growth in targeted segments including £1.4 billion in motor finance and £0.8 in SME. On the margin we have again seen a reduction in asset margins offset by improved liabilities and I expect this to continue in the second six months and for the full-year margin to be in line with guidance at around 290. In terms of asset margins, we're not seeing any real change to the trends that we have set out previously. In mortgages as you know, the market remains very competitive. Most recently we have seen a slight improvement in new business pricing, but also a slight pickup in SVR attrition to around 15%. And the overall mortgage market margin has remained resilient of 1.8% and in line with the second half of 2018. In consumer finance and commercial banking margins are obviously at higher levels the mortgages and simply remain resilient at…

Jason Napier

Management

Good morning. Jason Napier at UBS. Two questions around net interest margin, please. Firstly, we've seen in the market an improvement in credit spreads on flow mortgages, but you've already mentioned the impact of increased SVR attrition on the back book. So anything you could say about open book growth and that sort of behavior means for forward credit spread income for the business? And then secondly, just to focus on the contribution of the hedge, if we could. I appreciate your reiterated guidance for NIM for this year and next. But clearly the yield curve is less helpful than it was. And so any colleague give around the contribution headwinds that you'd face if the yield curve stays here? There's an intense interest in maturity profile of the existing positions. Thank you. António Horta-Osório: Okay. So I'll deal with the second one first. I mean, the structure hedge remains a fundamental part of how we do business, and I think we've been very clear over the years as to what our strategy is and I think very clear in terms of what the contribution is. And my expectation is as we go forward, that will remain the case. And you've seen today in terms of just our balance sheet numbers, first up, the continued focus on high quality current accounts and the growth being hedgeable balances. That's very much where our focus is and that's very much at the core of the structure hedge as part of our business and that will continue. In terms of specifics, look, we're in a different place from a year ago, and we're in different place in terms of market implied rates, five-year rates in particular and what that might mean for us. We'd still think that we are in a strong and…

Jason Napier

Management

Thank you. António Horta-Osório: Additional questions? There were a few here, Rohith. Can we have the microphone here, please?

Rohith Chandra-Rajan

Management

Thank you. Good morning. It's Rohith Chandra-Rajan, Bank of America Merrill Lynch. Just to follow-up on the mortgage book please. The SVR book contraction has accelerated materially in the first half of the year, so down £8 billion in the first half versus 22% annualized contraction. Just wondering if you could split that between Q1 and Q2, if there's been any step up in a particular quarter, and clarify what the rate that those customers are refinancing away from? And then secondly on gross lending, a pickup in the open mortgage book in the second quarter, as you guided to, the £8.7 billion of gross lending in Q1 curious to what that was in the Q2? And then just on the competitive environment, which as you say, the swap rates benefited new business spreads more recently in the first half of the year. It looks like in the last couple of weeks a couple of your competitors have cut pricings. Just wondering if that's something that you've observed in the market.

George Culmer

Management

In terms of the last one first – in terms of activity over the last couple of weeks, it sort of doesn't surprise us and this is going back to Jason's question. I'm not going to call anything. It stays competitive. And over the course of this year, you've seen different people doing different things and you can try and divine motive and are they doing something very clever or they doing something very stupid and is this influenced by surplus liquidity or is this influenced by a land grab? It's just part and parcel so I wouldn't read into anything that's really true.

Antonio Lorenzo

Management

As we have been telling you over the calls or the meetings we have been having, people have different behaviors of quarters. I don't think we – I would call anything in particular in the last few weeks, maybe some people in some products have lowered prices. On the other hand you have people exiting the markets, like Tesco Bank for example. You have other competitors saying on their calls, they will be more mindful about margins and volume. I don't think the last two or three weeks have any difference to what you saw in the last eight weeks, which is an improvement, as George said, on spreads. And we have taken a larger share during that period, which is already to be completed in the books. So the open-ended mortgage book will continue to increase as George said.

George Culmer

Management

And then to your other questions, in terms of the reversal book. Yes. So the attrition ticked up to about 14.5%, 14.8% towards the back end of Q2, the equivalent to that, I think in Q1 was about 13%. So we have seen a slight pick up. Some of that was actually due to the low maturities into that book, but I probably would expect if I was speaking the number for the full-year would be roundabout that sort of 15%. You're right. The total book reversal is now about £94 billion compared with about £104 billion at the start of that year. Within that, the Halifax, which is May 1 in terms of price is about £33 billion, and that's down about £5 billion in the year. But again, the actual attrition rates actually irrespective, it seems very sort of agnostic to actually rate charged and it's pretty consistent in terms of across the pieces. In terms of mortgage volumes across the piece, I think in Q1, we were looking at I think gross lending of about £10 billion and that's grown to about £12 billion in the second quarter. So you've seen that pickup and that's consistent with what we've been showing you in terms of Q1 versus Q2. I think as we said at the start, in that mortgage evolution, we knew there was a big redemption. So that took the book down, which we sort of expected in Q1, but you are seeing that pickup. And as I said, the apps pipeline look strong, and I don't have a number for those in terms of what people are moving away from you. But I would imagine new business spreads are particularly different from the ones that we've talked about in terms of the Lloyds book.

Guy Stebbings

Management

Thank you. It's Guy Stebbings with Exane BNP Paribas. The first question was just on the credit card strategy. The balances were I think flat on the previous quarter, but down about 10% since Q3 last year. Is the strategy still to grow that book? And a follow-up question there, saw a pickup in unsecured impairment rates. If you look at the trust data, which doesn't include MD&A, there wasn't a sharp move in terms of new NPL formation. So is it fair to assume MD&A, which is seeing a slight pickup in impairments? That's the first question. Do we see the second questions? António Horta-Osório: There was two question.

Guy Stebbings

Management

The second one was just on guidance around capital generation for the second half a 100 basis points. If you reflect in tangible growth, pension contributions, 81 coupons, things like that, it looks like you're guiding for profit after-tax about £2.6 billion £2.7 billion. I think consensus is a little bit below that. Where are you expecting RWA to actually be down in the second half of the year to help contribute there? Thanks. António Horta-Osório: Okay. I mean on that last one, we are looking at continued RWA optimization. And so without being just a comment on your back solved PAT, just as an input to your calculations. We are looking at RWA optimization. We did a bit of that in the first half. I would expect this into more of that in the second half, and particularly these are the large corporate business, where we're reactive in terms of returns and efficient use of capital, et cetera. You've heard us talk about that over the last number of years. And we certainly have some actions that we would be hoping and expecting to take in the second half of this year. So I would expect to see that. The unsecured MBNA, there's number of things, no part of it actually, I've got a sort of slight model change, where actually I've now have aligned MBNA is IFRS 9 numbers to the Lloyds. We were basically using Lloyds PDs on them before and we've aligned collection procedures. So there's about a £40 million step up, simply comes from a methodology alignment and isn't actually relating to underlying experience. And then in terms of card strategy, prior to MBNA, we were underweight and we were looking to grow market share. It was an area we liked or we wanted more of. So it's probably fair to say we were slightly more aggressive in terms of our approach to that market. We're now where we want to be and it's about pursuing what we think is the most successful strategy for that particular part of the market. And in that you've seen the most obvious bits are coming in on things like balance transfers, where you've seen a material reduction in the terms offered and the period of free periods as part of the product design. So you have seen a slight shift in terms of before and after the MBNA deal. It's about deploying what we think is the most successful strategy for that book. I mean, we would expect the market to be growing 2% to 3%, and we will be thereabout so. The market has been decelerating lately on credit cards. And we should be more or less in line with the market. There's no change of strategy. We are very pleased with integration of MBNA completely aligned and integrating by now with the final ROE of 18% versus 17%. We thought at the uncertain. Drew?

Andrew Coombs

Management

Hi, good morning. Thanks. May be just one follow-up on the hedge and then two separate questions. Just to finish up on the hedge. I think in the past we've discussed as your unhedged capacity rises, there is a chance of picking up a capital charge as hedge position moves. Are you expecting something like that in the second half or not really? António Horta-Osório: No. I mean I'm at them. You're right. If you take it to extremes then you're at the mercy of stress tests and all those sorts of things. £172 billion place £185 billion at the moment. You were at the margin. We've seen in terms of investment – and in terms of actions that we take taken that that we don't see that there is value there. We don't see what downside is. It's been protected. So we've stood off. But it's not to the extent to which, I think I'm going to endanger the capital position, which is not to the extent, which I think I'm going to engage in capital position. And the latest numbers we have, we are growing 5% as of May versus a market, which is growing 3%. So we keep growing above the markets, 5% to 3%.

Andrew Coombs

Management

Thank you. And then maybe just two separate topics that we haven't talked about. Firstly, obviously is maybe a strategy question, but the revenue environments quite challenging now for the whole industry. And this was exactly – this wasn't what you were planning on when you laid out medium term targets. So I think you've delivered a very good cost performance again in the first half, but I always go back to you – you already start with a very efficient cost position. So what more can you do? What are the costs livers that you will look to pull? Are you going to start with the rethink some of the investment that you've got at too or is there something else that you can point to 10 years now? Where else can you take cost out? Thank you. António Horta-Osório: That's a fair question, but you will meet [indiscernible] rather that have been here in the question for five years. So I think that that question splits into strategic and the operational. From a strategic point of view, I am a strong believer that you need a culture of attention to efficiency and costs in order to be able to relentlessly implement a reduction on BAU costs, number one. And number two strategically as well. I think you should manage your BAU cost base with the secondary on quality. So you have the BAU cost base. You have to look at quality because you could potentially get the wrong costs. And thirdly, you have to look, as you correctly pointed out whom to your investment capacity. So are you making your company more efficient, but at the detriment of quality or at the detriment of investment while NPS growth we have shown you, they increased 50% over the last…

Andrew Coombs

Management

Thank you. I did have one more question, if that's okay. On the fee income outlook, you can see the current account fees are down half and half despite the higher balances. And I was wondering if you could talk a little bit about, where the pressures are coming from. Are you seeing any pressure from overdraft regulations as well? If you could give us a number, that would be helpful. António Horta-Osório: Okay. Well, if I step back, I mean on whole sort of ROI, the start of this year, we've talked about have an aspiration to target being in line with sort of last year £6 billion or so. We reaffirmed that at Q1. There was lot of questions on that. That is still our target. As it got a bit tougher, it has got a bit tougher to achieve. And we'll see how the second half of the year plays out. But that was our sort of aspiration and that stays the aspiration, but it has got a bit tougher. Within that what's going on, I know you asked specifically about the sort of retail bit, but when you look through the numbers and in terms of the H1 experience, retailers doing a tough job in a pretty tricky circumstance. It's down prior year, but I've got – I've taken action in terms of fee charges. I'm seeing a slight benefit from things like ATM reciprocity, which is be a going against me. I've done some internal changes in terms of commission payments between retail and insurance, which have impacted retail as well, but they are slightly down and we'll stay pretty tough there. Commercial, which is down around about 13%, it's probably done more than we expected, to be fair. And that is a more challenging market environment. And in terms of people stepping off activity, you see it in the indicators, you see it in the comments and you probably hear it talking to businesses. So there's no doubt. That's just slightly worse than expected. At the same time, again going back to what you've seen and heard from Antonio on the slides, insurance has been the standout and in ROI to be up 20% plus, 21% is a tremendous achievement. And I think that result is very reflective of the change and the success and the building of that insurance business. So for the full-year, as I said, targeting close to six was the aspiration. It stays there. It has got tougher for the full-year. I would expect retail to be sort of much of a muchness. I would expect insurance to continue to show strong results. It's not going to be 21%, but I would still expect it to be a good daylight between 2019 and 2018 and I would be hopeful that within commercial that we can claw back some of that territory and some of that ground within commercial.

Andrew Coombs

Management

Thank you, very helpful. António Horta-Osório: Joe?

Joseph Dickerson

Management

Hi. Thank you. Joe Dickerson from Jefferies. George, I think at the full-year you gave us the unrealized gains on the gilt and liquid assets portfolio. If you could give us a sense of what those unrealized gains might be as at H1, that would be great. And then a secondly on liquidity, I just note that your liquidity coverage ratio is at 130% and your cash is up 8% year-to-date. Presumably, like other banks you've been having to hold higher liquidity because of the uncertainty in the environment. I guess could you quantify how much of a drag that has been to the net interest margin? Because it seems to me like on the other side of all of this next year going to be quite a tailwind on the liquidity side to the margin? And then lastly, do you still intend to distribute capital down to 13.5%?

George Culmer

Management

Okay. The carry cost, the accessibility was I’d like to say there's a massive opportunity to there massive prize and I've got the precise some had, I don't think it's a big drag on the numbers and we have not been required to us to do anything as regards that. As you might expect going back to 31 March type Brexit, we sort of took the opportunity to get ahead in terms of funding. If markets were open than we thought, we would access them, and take advantage of that. So when I look at what we've actually done over the last 15 months versus original plans, we've accelerated and brought forward. And I think that was the sensible thing to do, and that kind of remains our overall stance. But I don't see that there's a massive prize in terms of the NII in terms of the carry cost that. The unrealized gains, if this number isn't right, we'll round, but I think it's just shy of about 200 million quid is that is the number that's in my head. And if that's wrong, well, I'll get Douglas to do some work and bring everybody up. And on capital look nothing's changed. You're not going to expect me to say anything different from what I'm about to say, but nothing has changed. We were pleased to get the reduction in the capital requirement because we believed it reflected real de-risking of the business both from the [indiscernible] perspective and things like contributions to pension schemes and to earlier questions around hedges and things like that. And in terms of scale and size of the Ringfence Bank. So we were very pleased for the reduction because we thought it reflected actions that we had taken. So we have please see that, but the policy has not changed. You've seen that our interim dividend which will be sustainable and progressive and you've heard these words before, but you know, the board will take their decision at the end of the year, which is the right time after we've completed stress tests of your completed plans for the subsequent years. In light of the information pertaining at that period in terms of what they do with the surplus over and above that requirement of 13.5%.

Joseph Dickerson

Management

Great. Many thanks.

Chris Manners

Management

Thanks very much. Good morning. It's Chris Manners from Barclays. Just three questions by me. And the first one was just a tax change in capital 170 basis points of capital generation that's about £3.5 billion looking at where the RWA and 50 basis points drop in your requirement. There's another billion pounds that looks like about £4.5 billion of sort of surplus. And if we look at what you've been indicated with your interim dividend, that actually looks like you've got buyback capacity of well over £2 billion quid and I'm just trying to think about is there anything apart from a hard Brexit that we should be considering just stop getting to that sort of level and for next year. And the second question was just about the shape of the yield curve and clearly at the moment the curve is pricing potentially different outcomes, but it does look like there's going to be more than 50% chance of over the next 12 months. How would, should we expect you to be able to react to that? Can you de tune some of the pricing on the tactical deposits more? And how would you sort of deposit beater and verse work? How much can you sort of take out that manage savings book. The interesting to think about that. And the last point was on asset quality. So the gross AQR obviously jumped up a bit in the quarter 38 basis points. I know you fly those sort of couple of big corporate defaults in there and how should we think about that gross AQR trending should it get glide down a little bit from here? Thanks. António Horta-Osório: Let me just on the seconds and pointed to mentioned. Just to besides what George said, George gave you a extrapolation of if the curve stays as it is, what happens in 2020 that is without any management actions. So as you said, depending on the scenarios, we will be taking management action as we take all the time as we took in the first half versus the second half. I mean we do, it's our job. Right? And don't forget if you look at the balance sheet holistically. We always look at margin asset prices, liability prices will look at by segments, we manage it on a weakly basis and that has proved the competitive advantage. So I just want to precise point that depending on the scenario and we will see what we can do, we had in the past scenarios like that we took action, we will be taking management actions where we wanted to, we emphasize it to George's extrapolation assumes no management action so that you have a sensitivity which is important in terms of should the curve stay as it is as today what happens in 2020 but that without management actions.

George Culmer

Management

So what we've guided to below 30 this year and I think whatever the number is above the planning period around 30 or something like that, we've also said there'll be a lower level of right backs and releases. Although we would expect to see continuation and be a lower level, which would guide you into a sort of a few basis points above. To your question, it's this times result has been disordered. Those two commercial names we talked about probably added about five points to the gross. So that they sort of give it a little spike to your question that are distorting the trends. So they can happen at any time and all those sorts of things. I give out that ones, but that's a sort of distortion to the six month number. António Horta-Osório: And then just to clarify, Chris, they're not defaults that just to destroy impairments we decide to take.

Chris Manners

Management

That's great.

George Culmer

Management

And there's, I'm not to the folks that, those two additional impairment charges on two different names, we decided to take prudently. They are not the full chance to present. António Horta-Osório: In stage three or stage two.

George Culmer

Management

Yes. And then to mean, António talked about the rate cut and how we respond. We've responded before. I think you would expect to see us respond again in terms of taking appropriate action in terms of product pricing, and thereafter to António's answer on cost unless also those sorts of things as well where you know we will look across the business in terms of what we might have. António Horta-Osório: And your question on capital, as George said, I mean the board policies is unchanged and I think we have a improvement dividend policy. So the ordinary dividend roses we told you before in line with nominal GDP, so we increased it to 5% but the board at the end of the year post stress test plus the posts PRA buffer with the all information available at the of industrial as usual, we will take the decision. Our target is around 12.5% plus around 1% and we will decide what we do with access and that is exactly the same procedure as we have been doing in previous years. There is no change whatsoever.

Chris Manners

Management

Gotcha. Thank you.

Unidentified Analyst

Management

Good morning. Just a very quick couple of questions on insurance. Are there any CMI related releases in the results the first question. Second on the substitute ratio, the 149% again, the 10-year swap has come down since then Q2. So I've just – it's the case that you still don't impact on your growth aspirations in terms of the risk problems that you're doing. And just the final question on Balkan unities and the growth have looks just keeps getting better and better. Will you be looked at change your reinsurance strategy to perhaps grab more market share? António Horta-Osório: Well let me start with the latter. I think in terms of – as I said in my presentation, we are managing and Balkan with a discipline in pricing and we don't have any issues. We have the right, we see the right pricing in the market and the right proposition to go to head subject to the capitals. But the thing is we don't have any, we don't see any issues. I have said I need the returns on. Really we are heading now that the people are looking for growth. This is an opportunity for growth for us as many others that we have in the portfolio. In your second question was…

Unidentified Analyst

Management

On CT ratio came down because… António Horta-Osório: Well I think that really there are different impacts in the capital ratio we have the equity, we have the interface the credit. Obviously interest rates are hitting us, but there are other things that we are doing in terms of reducing the risk and we have some changes in the models that we are managing in order to be in the right place with the capital. So we are obviously this is discuss an impact but we are doing other actions. We are taking other actions in order to be about the 140.

Unidentified Analyst

Management

That’s correct. Follow up and I ask you what kind of actions is it's, I can’t see expenses? António Horta-Osório: Well, you have, I think we have a lot of opportunities to manage longevity because certainly we are probably intense of the competition, most of the people have a lot of longevity is hedged. We are keeping a lot of everything longevity in good way, but I think that this is an opportunity always to manage capital and we can see how they're doing. Okay. Shall we go to this side now, Fahed?

Fahed Kunwar

Management

Hi. It's Fahed Kunwar from Redburn. Sorry to come back, onto NII. It just feels like its two quite big shifts here. So I think in a strategy day, you had structural hedge income increasing is a portion of revenues are coming in a lot or share revenues, and obviously you had one rate rise in per annum. We're looking at flat or rate time and stop rates where they are. So I understand the £250 million guidance, but the flat margin guidance is predicated on those assumptions, and what would need to happen for that flat margin guidance to change? How would margins come down from here considering those two materials shifts potentially on adjusting that guidance? So just some flexing understanding what kind of economic environment we would need if that flat margin guidance to be challenged would be helpful. And on the second question on ROI, I understand the £6 billion for this year is difficult, but the insurance growth is very, very good at the moment, and other operating income? António Horta-Osório: Yes.

Fahed Kunwar

Management

And when should we start expecting growth in that line? So when should the insurance kind of benefits start to offset the impacts when retail and commercial? Thank you. António Horta-Osório: Yes. That's a good question. Look it's been tough for different reasons, in different parts of the market here and we've talked to this year, as I said it's an answer to an earlier question of approaching targeting, £6 million. I will be cautious about giving any longer-term guidance. The number of uncertainties out there are huge. I will try and reassure you that we are doing things in each of those individual businesses in terms of generating the topline. You've seen the evidence in the insurance today. Within retail, in terms of some pricing actions that we're taking, and in terms of product enhancements, again, we are doing all the right actions. Commercial, it's tough. And there was a market dependency that that would stop me saying precisely where I think that's going to come out and makes it tough for this year, let alone next year. So I can tell you internally we're doing all the right stuff. But the external market dependency in terms of business activity, we would caution me against giving you any type of long-term projection that says its £6 million this year and it will be £6.2 million or whatever. It's too uncertain. There were too many things that are beyond my gift beyond my ability to control. And then in terms of margin, what throws me off a lot. We are – going back to the start, our core assumption is still there's some kind of orderly withdrawal. With all the way rate rise this year. They obviously won't be our current view on rate rises is back end of next…

Fahed Kunwar

Management

Okay. Can I ask one quick follow-up on AIA? Close mortgage book deduction. António Horta-Osório: Yes.

Fahed Kunwar

Management

Obviously, we know that the new gross flows coming on the open mortgage book. Should we start to see AIA pick up from now in a second half of the year with the increase in the open book offset the close mortgage book? Are we still looking at net flat? António Horta-Osório: Well, you're still – I mean once you've got in terms of AIAs, I mean it's just because of how the comp works. We'll be through the Irish stuff that's gone. That drops out the calculation. That's fine. That makes it easier for start. You're right. They don't really go anywhere unless that mortgage book goes anywhere, because that's the mortgage book grows. The rest of it has to run so hard. The simple math doesn't work. So I'll be stable this year, but I've still got a slight runoff in terms of about that, whatever it is 18 billion, 19 billion close mortgage book and that will lose 1 billion, and 1.5 billion a year. So I probably have to convert. If I'm stable and I've got a 1.5 billion close headwind, then I could probably just about getting that flat in terms of consumer finance and then an SME. It depends where I go on things like large corporates. And I said to an answer to an earlier question. We probably will be still looking to continue to optimize large corporates that they're more likely to go down than up. So if you put all those pieces together, you're probably closer to flat than growth at the moment still.

Fahed Kunwar

Management

Thank you very much. António Horta-Osório: Yes. Martin.

Martin Leitgeb

Management

Good morning. Martin Leitgeb from Goldman Sachs. If I could ask, maybe start with a broader question just on Brexit and Brexit impact on your business and just thinking about the usual variables, loan growth and credit quality. I think you alluded to that you saw in particular and impact on business confidence. I guess business loan demand. Could you share a little bit more light what you're seeing across the business as a retail and a corporate in terms of loan demand? And also asset quality, whether it has been any pockets of deterioration you have noticed at this stage. My second question is just with regards to loan provisioning and general loan. I think some of your peers have built general provisions regarding a specific mark for risk facing the UK. I think Lloyd's hasn't just you're thinking behind us. Just to follow-up on the various NIM questions, just if we were just to think about NII progression from here, assuming the rate environment were not to change, how should we think about NII progression from here? What would you expect that the guard will decline? We have seen over the last two or three quarters we'll continue. Thank you. António Horta-Osório: Okay. So I'll take the first question and George will take the other two. Look as I said, I mean there are two separate this in segments. You have the retail side and you have the corporate side. We are mostly retail bankers, so most of our loans and most of our activity. And on the retail side we see as I said on my introductory remarks, we see no change whatsoever. We don't see a mortgage growth continues at model as the same pace as the previous year around the 3% stock year-on-year. As you…

George Culmer

Management

And then two other points I may have on loan provisioning, that should be making specific provisions for specific macro. I mean, I don't know if it's a reference back to coming into the sort of Brexit scenario, but I mean in our first nine provision and as you know, I have my base, I have a 30%, my upside 30%, my downside 30%, and my extreme 10%, which sort of seems quite obvious. But I think as we went through last year, I don't think it will appear to set off in that position in terms of having that spread. And there were some changes as they moved through the year. We didn't move because we'd already captured an element of that, that severe right in our one-gen numbers. And we're consistent in the deployment of that as we moved through the year. Now what we have done in terms of this half, as I say, our core assumption is still orderly withdrawal. But we have within that, I think as I said earlier, reflected the current environment and that current environment is slightly lower GDP is slightly lower HPI, but at the same time slightly better unemployment. And when I flow all those through my multiple economic scenarios, it had an adverse impact in the sort of tens of millions type stuff in terms of that H1 impairment charge you saw. So our central [indiscernible] hasn't changed and our percentages on the various scenarios hasn't changed, but the backdrop was slightly weakened, but that's not a Brexit that's simply going back to some of the António comments about the economy, just observing what we're seeing around business confidence, GDP, HPI, et cetera. But there is an offset on unemployment. So we feel that is appropriate and reflective of how we see the world going forward. And to your last question, which I must say I think is a bit of a setup question, is this did you say. If I assume the rate environment won't change, what happens to NII, which I think was a question? And I think I just said AIA is going to be relatively flat. We've talked about a resilient name and we've talked about in the current rate environment to the market implies I'll lose about £250 million. So in that scenario we'll just be working harder, Martin.

Martin Leitgeb

Management

Thank you.

Unidentified Analyst

Management

Good morning. It's [indiscernible] from Morgan Stanley. I think most of my questions on NIM have been addressed and we’re pleased to hear. But just a quick follow-up on PPI, please. The 190K weekly information requests is obviously a big step up, could you give us a sense of the uphold rates on that 190, how that compares to the past?

George Culmer

Management

It's not so much up hopefully. It's the sort of conversion factor. So I think I said previously the rule of thumb is when we were talking about our sort of 13,000 provision previously, which is what we would assume and what we were observing in terms of complaints process per week. They used to be about 4,000 direct from customer and about 9,000 from CMC originated. And that CMC 9,000 was basically off the back of about 70,000 of these PPI information requests. And so that's a 13% conversion rate. And then what we've seen, as I said in the presentation, first to 150 then to about 190, but we have seen that complaint conversion rate dropped to, and it's still moving around just below sort of 10%. So that's the sort of conversion rate. And we'll process this, we'll work on this. The important thing in all this is that, we're four weeks away from the deadline. It is hugely disappointing to have to announce big PPI provision again. And it's also hugely disappointing to have to say uncertainties still remain. But we will be through this. We will get through this. And we'll move to much better place beyond, but at the moment it's just a question of dealing with that surge ahead of the deadline.

Edward Firth

Management

Okay. Thanks very much. It’s Ed Firth from KBW. Just two quick questions. The first one was on Central. I mean, I think Central is now making a bigger contribution than insurance, if I strip out that the 136 in Q1, and we don't really get much guidance as to what's in there and what's driving that number. I mean it bounces around all over the place. So I wonder if you could help us a little bit, what is actually in there and how we should think about that as it rolls forward? So that was the first question. And the second question was, I'm just getting quite concerned about credit and I know we've had a couple of questions on this. But if I just look at your numbers, you've got an increasing charge and a falling cover at a time when as you've rightly pointed out, the economy is going pretty well, unemployment is at all time lows, interest rates are very low, and you don't need to be fanciful to think of any number of shots that we could hit in the coming six to 12 months. And it doesn't look obvious that you're well prepared for that or that you are adding to your buffers at the moment. So could you just guide to us where are you? How are you looking at that and how are you getting yourself ready for what could be a pretty tough time? António Horta-Osório: I mean just two comments and George will answer. I mean I think we are very well prepared for that because the first thing I would tell you, which I said in my introductory remarks and that's why I have included a long series on the presentation. The best preparation for a potential, not…

George Culmer

Operator

I would add to that. It touches every part of what we do from risk approval to book shape to portfolio construction in terms of that secured in terms of where we play in terms of where we don't play. It covers every bit. And then to bring it down to some specifics, the work we've done on single name exposures. Yes, we've talked about a couple of names that impacted, but the work we've done over the last few years in terms of the books that were inherited to making sure that our exposure to single names are brought down and the names you want to be as massive. We show you the loan to value on the mortgages. It's a completely different space. Let me touch briefly on what we couldn't, what we ended up doing on something like motor financing. We've always talked about being prudently covered. Prices were off a bit this period. We used to allow for about a 4% or 5% reduction came through. I've taken for that. I could easily stop there, but our numbers actually now allow for a further reduction. So I've reset up my prudent provision. I could have stopped short. So it goes across the whole piece, anyway. So then to your first question, a couple things. First up, I really wouldn't strip out the 136 for insurance. I mean, I really think that is about recognition of a better deal, lower expenses and a real business benefit to insurance. Yes, under insurance accounting on PVs, the benefits, that's the way it is done, but that is a real reflection of a business being better run that will be producing better returns. So I think it's completely wrong to strip out the 136. There's also, if you look at,…

Unidentified Analyst

Management

Thank you. Just a question on current accounts strategy please. And you talked about the balance growth, but the cost data shows that Lloyds has gone from being quite a net gainer until about the middle of last year. The figures last week show you the biggest net loser balances by number and that's across the brands by number. So number of people switching away. Lloyds is the month number one loser along with both Halifax. Understand that shift please.

George Culmer

Operator

That's a very interesting thing and we were discussing that and you can see in the appendix that we show that our market share of digital, which we always present went down from 21% to 18% and we're looking at why and the reason is exactly the reason you mentioned because the challenger banks in general have been opening lots of current accounts and of course that impacts our market share in spite of us continuing to opening current accounts.

Unidentified Analyst

Management

But sorry, just in the switching data though, the challenge is very small. It's HSBC and nationwide all that stuff's going to, so it's just, that's the next shift. Just understanding in terms of…

George Culmer

Operator

In terms of switching data. Well first, don't forget that the switching data is not everything. It's a small part because you have the openings and closures which do not show on the switching data. So in current accounts the picture is clear as I think we showed you. The number and we showed you that on the slides. The number of active current accounts continues to increase and much more important the quality of those current accounts is improving very significantly. The average balance per customer has improved 50% since 2014 significantly above the market. And just to give you the latest available number, which I said earlier as of May, we are growing on PCA's 5% versus a market that is growing by 3%. So we continue to gain market share and that gives you I think the best indication of quality in current accounts which in the UK contrary to other markets are the most important product from a loyalty points of view. So our customers growing the users, we think that the digital offering is a big contribution to that. Those deposits are convenience deposits, not price oriented. They are growingly putting those deposits with us and our market share is increasing. So that's I think the best indication and I was going to make the point on the challengers. Everybody's opening current accounts on the challengers because as you know, the price is zero. So for you to have more current accounts that have any costs and there are specific things that people like to do with them, but I think the right criteria to monitor going forward is the quality of those accounts, the average balances and the potential revenues that they produce to be seen. Okay. Final question here.

Unidentified Analyst

Management

Hi, good morning. [Indiscernible] from a SocGen. Can I ask about the non-banking net interest expense please? I guess this is for you George. I think I guess it's gone up become more negative because of IFRS 16.

George Culmer

Operator

Yes, that's true.

Unidentified Analyst

Management

I think last time we saw you, you’re saying it wouldn't get near to 100 million, but I mean we're already there just in six months of the year. So is there anything funny in the first half that has made that number more negative or this is a…

George Culmer

Operator

No, are you sure? I said if we can get near to 100 million. My memory does go this isn't - no, I'm, I'm pretty sure I didn't say that we expected to go up because I mean this is the, the funding cost of basically non NII generating aspects and we saw 70 million or whatever in the first half, which is, it started the old in terms of H1 last year, but it's more in line with the second half of last year, which I think was about 60 million. And I would expect for the full-year to be about double that. I mean IFRS 16 is the 34 million of that. But I don't know – if I did, I did and I was wrong because it's kind a – it’s basically trackage where we expected it to be. So I would expect the full-year to be about double this and there is an IFRS16 pickup. It moves around depending upon because you know, how much type of business that commercial in terms of fee predominately fee generating income that they do. But elsewhere it's the funding of LDC, the funding of Scottish widows and things like that. But I would expect to be about double that for the full-year.

Unidentified Analyst

Management

Okay. Thanks. António Horta-Osório: Thank you. Just before I close, I would just say a few words. As you know, this is George's last set of results before he retires this week. George has been a crucial member of the team and of the turnaround we did here at Lloyd's. So I think he has been an outstanding CFO. And on behalf of myself, the Group Executive Committee the Board. I would just like to publicly thank him and I would like to really recognize your greatest contribution to the bank. Thank you very much George.

George Culmer

Operator

Thank you, António.