Earnings Labs

Lloyds Banking Group plc (LYG)

Q4 2013 Earnings Call· Thu, Feb 13, 2014

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Transcript

Mark George Culmer

Management

Thank you, António, and good morning, everyone. Beginning with the P&L on Slide 9. As you heard, we've made significant progress on our strategy, and this is reflected in the group's financial performance. Underlying profitability has more than doubled to GBP 6.2 billion, with profits in our core business improving by GBP 1.5 billion to GBP 7.6 billion while the loss from the non-core reduced by more than half to GBP 1.4 billion. Underlying income of GBP 18.8 billion was up 2% and in line with prior year, excluding SJP, with a stronger contribution from net interest income offsetting a reduction in other income. Cost reduced 5% to GBP 9.6 billion, in line with our guidance, while impairments fell 47% to GBP 3 billion, with a GBP 2.3 billion reduction in non-core and an GBP 0.4 billion reduction in core. Overall, the group made a statutory profit before tax of GBP 415 million compared with a GBP 606 million loss in 2012, mainly driven by the significant improvement in underlying performance. Looking at the core underlying performance by division. Retail had a strong year, with underlying profit up 17%, driven by 5% growth in net interest income and 11% growth -- improvement in impairments. The growth in net interest income was driven by a 15-basis-point improvement in margin due primarily to lower liability pricing and the return to growth of the core loan book in the third quarter. Improvement in credit quality reflects a reduction of almost GBP 1 billion in impaired loans, and Retail's AQR is now just 33 basis points compared to 37 in 2012. Commercial also had a strong year. The focus on disciplined pricing, franchise growth and risk selection driving balance sheet growth, improved profitability and RWA reduction resulted in a 38-basis-point increase in returns on…

Mark Fisher

Management

Thank you, George. Good morning. I'd like to give you a brief update on the progress on Simplification and our costs. At the year-end, our costs stood at GBP 9.6 billion, in line with guidance, and a 5% reduction on 2012. Overall, total group costs in 2013 reduced by GBP 489 million, mainly driven by in-year Simplification savings of GBP 599 million. In addition, the effect of disposals, such St. James’s Place, further reduced costs by GBP 164 million, with these savings were offset partially by pay and inflation increases of GBP 155 million. Within the GBP 119 million other category is net of reduced non-core costs; increased regulatory costs, including bank levy, anti-money laundering costs, defined benefit pension costs; some core business growth; and some smaller one-off items. Looking at the Simplification savings at the end of 2013. We were slightly ahead of targets, with an annual run rate of GBP 1.45 billion, an increase of GBP 610 million in 2013, which followed an increase of GBP 605 million in the previous year. As we enter the final year of the program, we now expect to achieve run rate savings at the end of 2014 of GBP 2 billion. This higher exit run rate comes from initiatives that deliver relatively late in the year, so the 2014 in-year benefit is marginal. Moving to the chart at the bottom of the slide. You can see that total group costs are now 13% lower than at the start of the program. We have beaten the GBP 10 billion cost target we set out in 2011, a full year ahead of the original plan. We continue to forecast total costs of GBP 9 billion in 2014, excluding TSB. This will give us a full GBP 2 billion real reduction in the cost…

Chintan Joshi - Nomura Securities Co. Ltd., Research Division

Management

Chintan Joshi from Nomura. I have 2 questions: one on capital and one on NII. On capital, you indicate a 2.5% capital generation over the next 2 years. I'm just trying to understand this. If I look at your current pace, I mean let's pick the midpoint between 1.5 and 2, which is quite close to the 2013 number. You get to about 3.5%, and you've got [indiscernible] coming up for sale. You've got some more noncore to run down. So I'm just trying to reconcile the 2.5% with the run rate that I can see coming over the next 2 years? And then I've got one more. António Mota de Sousa Horta-Osório: Do you want to ask the second one?

Chintan Joshi - Nomura Securities Co. Ltd., Research Division

Management

Second one is on Slide 12 where you give the breakdown of the deposit of the margin mix. If I look at your Q3 slide versus the Q4 disclosures, the deposit margin mix momentum has fallen quite a bit, but you've seen no asset repricing effects. But the problem I have there is I can't see what contribution we get from wholesale funding reductions in those 2 buckets. So if you could just break it out for us, kind of where is deposit repricing? Where is the asset repricing, and where is wholesale funding within that chart?

Mark George Culmer

Management

Yes. I mean, on the second one, yes. Because at the moment, the way we do it actually, we blend the movements in wholesale funding into those numbers, as you say, into the assets and composite. And you're right. I'll get these numbers wrong. But I think the deposit uptick year-on-year was something like 28 basis points in Q3, it's up to sort of 32 now or something. You are seeing a slowing. And that plays into what we're seeing in terms of the overall guidance. And now what we are saying about in terms of direction of that NIM moving forward. Wholesale funding is coming down. How that bleeds through into those numbers is relatively slow because obviously, it depends upon the churn of that wholesale book. And as you say, we've not been overly active in terms of 2013. We'll not be overly active in terms of 2014. Thereafter, that pace will pick up. But seeing that wholesale, that reduced cost of funds come through is a massive positive to us, but it will just take time for that to bleed through into the numbers. But we can separate out and give you separately in terms of how that factors through into that wall [ph]. In terms of the first part, yes, in terms of capital progressions, I stand -- what you'll see over the next few years is a change in blend in terms of what's sort of contributing to that capital generation over the period as we move from balance-sheet-driven reduction events as we move forward to a much richer mix in terms of underlying profit dropping through into statutory profits driving capital forward. So it's quite hard to look at -- through the rear window and look at sort of historic capital build and try…

Chintan Joshi - Nomura Securities Co. Ltd., Research Division

Management

We are looking at your underlying performance, contributes about 1.7% to core Tier 1 based on 2013 numbers. So if I just add that up, I get to a lot ahead. And even if I back out the GBP 350 million of one-offs you've guided, Verde sales should hopefully lead to a profit, not loss. So like it still doesn't get me to 2.5, so that's what I was trying to reconcile. António Mota de Sousa Horta-Osório: Let me add one thing on your NIM question and wholesale funding, which is quite important, just to call your attention. As George was saying, the fact that our wholesale funding cost went substantially down will progressively have an impact as we are going to renew those wholesale issues as they mature. And I call your attention. I mean you can see when we should, et cetera, because our credit default swap, as I mentioned, is now at 75 basis points, the lowest of any U.K. bank. So the significant benefits we'll have in the future by renewing our wholesale funding needs, which will be less and less, will be very significant. Yes, please? Here, Arturo.

Arturo de Frias Marques - Grupo Santander, Research Division

Management

It's Arturo de Frias from Santander. Two or 3 questions, please. One on this consumer finance unit, which is going to be one of the growth engines as you say. Can we have an idea of what is the profitability of that unit today? I mean you have given us the RoRWA of retail, the RoRWA of corporate -- or commercial. Can we now -- what is the RoRWA of consumer finance, just to have an idea of how accretive to ROE and not only to growth is going to be this unit? That's the first question. The second one is also on RoRWAs. It's on the RoRWA of commercial. You made some remarks at the end saying that you expect that RoRWA to improve to 2%, I think you said by 2015. But still if I tax [ph] that and you saw 12% or 13% core capital ratio. We are talking about a unit that is generating around 15% ROE, which obviously is good. It's well above the cost of equity, but it's substantially below the retail ROE and probably also the consumer finance ROE. Are you satisfied with this commercial ROE? You think it will kind of still improve, and how can it improve, why it's relatively low versus others, is probably one question from several angles. That's it. No, these are the 2.

Charles King

Management

George will take first...

Mark George Culmer

Management

As you said, as we move into 2014, obviously, we've got the reorganizations in terms of -- as António talked about. Obviously, we'll cease the noncore reporting, but there's a runoff. Our intent is to get out pretty quickly pro formas, so you can do precisely as you say. So you can see actually the new organization in that structure. And I'm not sure what the precise timing it is, but we will endeavor get out it there -- I'll look at Charles, very speedy. I don't see why we can't do it in the next few weeks. But we will get out the cut of 2013 in that new structure, so you'll be able to see precisely what you said. But yes, your instinct is right at the end. I mean consumer finance is a very healthily returning business. António Mota de Sousa Horta-Osório: And relating to your more strategic question about the Consumer Finance division, and I'll go to the commercial as well. I am very positive on this newly created consumer finance division because if you look at Lloyds as a whole and our concentration in the U.K., we have a 25% market share in current accounts x Tier 3. But we only have a market share of around 16% in consumer lending, both through car financing and through personal loans. And in credit cards, we are also around half the market share that we have in current accounts. So we have the contact with the customer, but we have a very strong opportunity of growing our relationship with the customers as we have, for example, and I mentioned that before, in the insurance area. Number two, the Asset Finance division, which is the core part now of the Consumer Finance division, performs, as you saw from…

Chris Manners - Morgan Stanley, Research Division

Management

It's Chris Manners from Morgan Stanley here. So 3 questions if I may. Firstly, would you be able to maybe give us a bit more color on the loan growth by division, and how much core loan growth we might expect. I know that, that's something you've done in the past? Obviously, a strong GDP projections, and total quite positive impact from Help to Buy. Secondly, on the net interest margin, obviously, you printed 2.64% in the core NIM in the quarter. What's the reason that the group NIM can't trend towards the exit rate on the core net interest margin over time? And thirdly, core Tier 1, obviously x dividends, you're saying you're going to build to 12.5 and then build further past then. What do you think the sort of steady state core Tier 1 ratio for Lloyds should be, and what -- where would you be comfortable? António Mota de Sousa Horta-Osório: Chris, I will take the first question. George will take the second and third. In terms of loan growth per division, so what you have seen throughout the year in quarter 4 was very much in line with what we said a year ago, i.e. we said we would grow mid corporates and large corporates starting on Q2, which we started in Q1 and then has grown sustainably. We said we would start growing retail mortgages in Q3 in line with the market, which we did in Q3 and Q4. And we said we would grow SMEs at at least the same pace as the previous year. We were growing 5% on a net basis until quarter 3. And we have accelerated this, as I said, to 6% in quarter 4 year-on-year, so 6% year-on-year. What can you expect for 2014? I think we've increased…

Mark George Culmer

Management

And on the second question, first, on NIM, obviously, we've guided to the sort of relatively flat stable in 2014. What's going on there? Well, a number of the factors that have drove -- have driven the improvement in the NIM over the course of this year will persist. So I've got things like the main benefits of being -- or main drivers of being things like liability pricing, the structural shift. What you'll see, though, is those a significantly reduced level of support from those positives. So on the liability pricing, we've been through the -- mostly in SIN Taxes [ph] book. I've got some of the term, which I may still get a benefit from, so that will be a benefit but a reduced level. In terms of the structural shift within the group, that morphed to the core book that you've sort alluded to. As I've already just sort of answered, the move to -- the reduction in noncore will be less in 2014 than it has in 2013. So you'll see -- whilst there will be a benefit, it will be less marked than it has been in 2013. Going the other way, and I know there hasn't been much shift in terms of the asset pricing, going to an earlier question. But we are seeing, it's tougher in terms of new business pricing whether it's on the mortgage, credit card, UPL-type front, so you are seeing asset headwinds come towards you. There's also our starts [ph] and linking back to what we said earlier and what António's been talking about. We want to be looking to increase volumes to grow the book, to target areas where we're under market share. So there's a sort of, a management action on this as well in terms of…

Unknown Analyst

Management

I have a couple of questions, please. Firstly, on NII, I noticed in the release that you talked about the repositioning of the hedge, meaning that you are protected against moves in interest rates. Should we interpret that as meaning you don't have as much sensitivity to a rise in interest rates? And I wondered if you could give us a new quantification of that? My second question is on the ECNs. Following the PRA's release in December, I wondered if you thought the ECNs still provide useful stress test capital for you? António Mota de Sousa Horta-Osório: Let me just say one introduction and George will take you to the sensitivity and ECNs. Just to be very clear, I mean what we -- our position, as I said, is we are a low-risk bank focused in the U.K. retail and corporates. And so we are normally hedged in terms of our asset liability risk. That's our base position as we were 2 years ago. As I explained sometimes and we have discussed, you and I, in detail, what we thought as a team was that given the -- and plausible low level of interest rates at the certain point in time, as you know during 2012 and in the first quarter of 2013, we thought we should unwind that hedge, and therefore, become much more exposed to a rising interest rate environment than we would have been otherwise. Given that interest rates moved in line with what we thought, we have put back the hedge in place during 2013. So just to let you know that we went back to the position we had 1.5 years ago. And that's why, as George will tell you, the sensitivity is similar to what we said 2 years ago.

Mark George Culmer

Management

You've answered it. As António said, it's an interaction between the level of hedge and also assumptions about how much gets passed through to sort of retail deposit holders. Our sort of presumption at the moment is for the first couple of increases, you won't see a material impact upon our numbers less than GBP 50 million. Once you get after that, for every 25 basis points, as it stands today, we'll be around about the GBP 100 million type level. So that's the -- which I think is relatively consistent to where it has been. In terms of ECNs, yes, as you say, currently yes, they do count. So they count within our stress test that we currently carry out on for the PRA. In terms of go forward, the go forward is much less certain. As you know as well as I, with our DBA [ph], with things like that 5.5% floor. Obviously, we've got the 81s [ph] and the PRA's, 7% conversion level with CRD IV implemented and with capital 2 [ph] rules fixing. As we move forward, I think it is fair to say the continued regulatory compliance of those ECNs for stress test purposes is much less certain. I think that's all I would like to say on the matter. António Mota de Sousa Horta-Osório: Please. Sorry, you have already -- sorry. Can you say your name?

Sandy Chen - Cenkos Securities plc., Research Division

Management

Yes, Sandy Chen from Cenkos. Actually, I'd just like to carry on with Magnus' [ph] question on the structural hedge, if I may. And see it -- looking at Page 107 on the Reserves Note 23. I was just wondering, is there a link between that GBP 909 million negative movement in change in fair value of hedging derivatives and the movement in the caterpillar hedge as it relates to NIM? And could you talk us through that relationship? For example, as a swap curve steepens, does the reserve loss increase sort of as a counterpart supporting the NIM?

Mark George Culmer

Management

It does relate to that. So it's basically the cash flow hedging. So, there's -- you're right. On that page, there's like GBP 909 million negative on that particular reserve, which does move around. And what that essentially represents is the mark-to-market on the structural hedge. Now that hedge is probably [ph] we have about a sort of 5-year life to that. That's the weighted average life. But what it does reflect is the sort of 30 basis points or so pickup in yields towards the end of last year, but that's what that relates to.

Sandy Chen - Cenkos Securities plc., Research Division

Management

Right. So if that long end, for example, of the yield curve and the swap curve begins to steepen unexpectedly, would we expect to see the sort of combination of a relatively healthy NIM, but on the reserves ticking ahead again?

Mark George Culmer

Management

Well, it's around the shape of the structural hedge. And as I said, the way we govern it internally, we have a strict adherence in terms of what are the applicable funds in terms of non-interest bearing liabilities, but also in terms of the duration of that hedge. As I say, we stick avidly to our 5 years. So that's where the predominant amount of that hedge, so it's actually much more susceptible to those sort of shorter ends. António Mota de Sousa Horta-Osório: Yes, please. To your side, yes.

Jonathan Pierce - Exane BNP Paribas, Research Division

Management

It's Jonathan Pierce from Exane. I've got 3 quick questions on capital and dividends. The first coming back to the target equity Tier 1 ratio, which you just said is 11%, could you tell us what are your Pillar 2A requirements is, please, like the other banks are starting to do? António Mota de Sousa Horta-Osório: Give your all 3 questions, Jonathan.

Jonathan Pierce - Exane BNP Paribas, Research Division

Management

I can do if you like. So pillar 2A is the first question. Second question in terms of your capital generation numbers in short- and medium-term, I'm assuming they are net of any RWA growth that you would expect. So can I just confirm that? And can you give us an idea of what RWA growth you're thinking about, both in the short-term and then post 2015? And then the third question is in terms of this up to 3% capital generation number post 2015, I mean, if I simply assume an RWA figure of approaching GBP 300 billion, that's suggesting a GBP 6 billion surplus capital generation per year, which in the context of your earnings, suggests a payout ratio of much higher than 50%. Can I just get your thinking on that, please? António Mota de Sousa Horta-Osório: Very simple questions, so I'll ask George answer.

Mark George Culmer

Management

What was that again? Right. On the first one, on Pillar stuff, Pillar 2 disclosures, I mean as you're probably aware, the PRA is currently carrying out consultation on Pillar 2 framework, including the disclosure of Pillar 2. And so, no, we haven't disclosed today things like our ICG, [indiscernible] disclose things that are headwinds, et cetera, they're [ph] after things that are currently are privy to us and our regulator. And I think that is our preferred position, and we're going to follow what the developments with the PRA actually are and we'll let that our disclosures. So that's our stance in terms of things like Pillar 2, ICG, capital planning buffer, et cetera. So that's what we decided we're going to do as a bank. To your second bit, yes, it is net of RWA growth. I'm not going to give you a precise percentage in terms of what our RWA growth is. But I think if you link what António has said in terms of what we're looking for in terms of growth across the book, you could factor in what your own RWA growth assumptions might be. Then to your last bit, look, I'm not going to comment specifically on numbers. What I would make is give you a generic comment around this franchise works and we can to the right thing by our customers, we can do right thing by our stakeholders and make very good returns for our shareholders. That is the benefit of the unique focus that we've got on the U.K. on that Retail and commercial franchise. And as I've talked about at different places, what you get as you move out as my below the other line items drop away, as I finished the restructuring of the bank, that underlying profit flows through into statutory profits, drives the capital and drives the options and the opportunities for this bank. And that's the unique advantage and the unique competitive position that we've got. Juan, you want to add? Juan Colombás: Yes, I want to add the impact of CRD IV that we have seen in other competitors, in our case, is going to be very small. So the number is around GBP 8 billion is our estimate for the impact of CRD IV -- of RWAs, and GBP 3 billion is in the corporate business and the rest is in the centers. So there is more.

Rohith Chandra-Rajan - Barclays Capital, Research Division

Management

It's Rohith Chandra-Rajan at Barclays. A couple, if I could, please. First one on provisions, and particularly on the guidance for next year, so 50 basis points bottom end of the sort of normalized range that you've historically talked about. It looks cautious relative to where you're at in the second half of this year, so 45 basis points at the group level and less than 30 in the core business. I'm just wondering sort of -- about the reason for that caution, particularly given the point that we're at in a strengthening cycle? And why you wouldn't expect below normalized levels to continue? That's the first one. Second, just briefly on OOI, just to clarify George's guidance there, so start point of the continuing business, GBP 6.6 billion. I think you said subdued over the next few years. Should we read that as a continuation of the divisional performance that we've seen in 2013? António Mota de Sousa Horta-Osório: No, we are a prudent bank, so Juan will answer to you in terms of provision guidance. Juan Colombás: We [indiscernible] cautious. I take it as a compliment. But yes, we have been cautious. But the underlying trend of our portfolios is positive. As you can see, quarter-over-quarter in 2013, we expect these positive trends to continue. We have been cautious, simply because you should not take the Q4 probably as the reference for 2014, because as António -- as George has said in his presentation, there have been some one-offs both in the commercial with some write-backs and some releases of provisions and in the Retail book more relative with improvements in the collections activities. So -- but all in all, I would say that the positive, the trends of all the portfolios are very positive. The core book is performing very well, as we have been telling you in every presentation, we are very confident that the cost of credit in the coming years will be within the range that we have been telling you from 2010, 2011. And then I would be -- I mean 50 basis points is our reference. It could be taking us through the cycle kind of cost of credit for Lloyds Banking Group. So it will be above or below depending on the economic conditions of the economy.

Rohith Chandra-Rajan - Barclays Capital, Research Division

Management

Can I just ask just on the 4Q. So there's some write-backs, as you say, in commercial and improved collections in Retail. Why given that the economy's improving, would you not expect to see some of that continue? Juan Colombás: Well, we -- it could happen, but the write-backs happened when it happened -- when they happened. So in any case, some are [ph] write-backs that we have -- had been in the core book as well. We don't expect so many next year because they were some cases that have been with us for some time and the entries into [indiscernible] of the core book in the last quarters have been very low. And so we don't think the write-backs activities in the core book commercial will be recurrent. António Mota de Sousa Horta-Osório: What we want to tell you is, I mean, 28 basis points quarter 4 in the core book. We don't want you to extrapolate it as a trend, because the trends are positive, but going from 42, which I think was what in quarter 3 to 28 was a big drop. The trend is downwards, but it is not a straight line. That's what we want to tell you. That we see all the portfolios performing better. Also on the commercial bank and the others as you saw, coverage has increased, which is also a good sign. And we are a prudent bank, and that's the way we'll continue to be in terms of DNA, in terms of risk management.

Mark George Culmer

Management

ROI. Yes, we obviously quite deliberately showed the slide, which showed the impact of those business, which we disposed of during the course of the year. They tended to be rather ROI heavy. So I think we came down to about GBP 6.8 billion, as opposed to GBP 6.6 billion. You mentioned, we -- and I talked about subdued outlook for the short term. That was more sort of orientating around the sort of 2014; you said over the next few years. I wouldn't actually put that time scale on it. In 2014 you will see a continuation of some of the factors that have impacted us in 2013. There's been a consumer preference for NII. The evolving conduct agenda is something that I think has impacted things like productivity. You've seen product withdrawals either on a permanent basis, such as investment products or on a temporary basis things like package accounts, et cetera, so it has had an impact on that. Going the other way, the commercial bank in tough trading conditions put in a great performance, and we continue to invest behind that business, and there's still great opportunities in terms of franchise growth share of wallet intend [ph] we'd rather drive that forward, although the environment was still sustained pretty tough there at the moment. Within things like the insurance business, again António talked about our plans for things like the annuity type business, et cetera, which will offset some of the negatives, which we've seen on bancassurance, for example. So the comment that I gave was more orientated around the 2014 than the time period that you have given it and things will state [ph] up, but there are certainly initiatives and actions that are undertaken within the business and I think, thereafter, would drive that ROI growth forward. António Mota de Sousa Horta-Osório: This is -- it's quite important part in terms of the commercial division and you know how the other banks have performed in terms of some of those product areas. The commercial division has had, as George said, very good performance in terms of market shares, customer, share of wallet development and preparation for the future. But as you saw, the markets move again in terms of margins and in terms of some of the projects and their volumes. So the good work being done in terms of clients' share of wallet, on one hand, and in terms of market shares like in debt capital markets, you don't see it in ROI this year, probably, this time in '14, because the adverse trends you are seeing in terms of margins in the market. But the underlying work is increasing market share and share of wallet in the commercial bank, as I had said previously, and I'm very confident about the trajectory going forward of commercial bank. Sorry? [indiscernible]

Claire Kane - RBC Capital Markets, LLC, Research Division

Management

It's Claire Kane from Royal Bank of Canada. I have 2 questions on capital and one on asset quality. Firstly, the 11% core tier 1 target, I know you don't want to give the Pillar 2 requirements, but can we deduce that the 100 basis points buffer over the 10% minimum for retailing French banks covers your Pillar 2? And my second question is on the capital generation. Can tell us what you're assuming for the DTA absorption? I think you have 1.9 percentage points coming through from that? And then finally, on asset quality, in Ireland, you saw net write-backs in their Retail book, and your commercial real estate provisions went down 80% H2 over H1. Can you talk us through the outlook for Ireland, please? António Mota de Sousa Horta-Osório: George will take the first 2 and Juan will speak to you about Ireland.

Mark George Culmer

Management

Yes. As I said, it's not the reasonable hurdle on a sort of steady state basis. 11% would be the number, and that would cover Pillar 1, Pillar 2. That would be my expectations of what the type of the number that you would have to carry, and that would be sufficient to cover capital planning buffers, ICGs, et cetera, et cetera. So that will be our expectation. In terms of DTA usage, again, I won't give a precise number. But again, as the bank returns to profitability, we do get quite a big kick here in terms of utilization, that is DTA's, so on -- I think that's why I give it at the moment GBP 500 million of a profit on current rules because we have about a 12, 13 basis points pickup, but on the fully loaded core tier 1 because of that DTA utilization, that converts into about 18, 19 basis points. And as the bank moves into that sustained profitability, which we will do this year and we will do with a vengeance the years thereafter, you do get a very rich mix in terms of utilizing those DTA's. António Mota de Sousa Horta-Osório: You have to bear in mind, Claire, that the capital guidance we are giving is in our fully loaded core tier 1 ratio, which is not effective by the DTA's in terms of equities. So the guidance we are giving of capital generation is relating to our fully loaded capital ratio, which I think you were also asking on the DTA question. Right. Is that clear?

Claire Kane - RBC Capital Markets, LLC, Research Division

Management

Yes, sorry. I thought the DTA unwind would benefit your fully loaded ratio?

Mark George Culmer

Management

I mean, it helps, it makes those profits more valuable as we generate those, yes. Juan Colombás: So in Ireland, you're right. So we have had some write-backs in the Retail portfolio because you know that we sold our portfolio of nonperforming loans in Ireland and that has produced some write-backs in -- which is good indication of the good level of provisions that we have in this Retail portfolio. What we have seen in Retail is -- if you discount the sale of nonperforming loans, the levels would have been flat in the year, so at 23%. And after the sale, we are going to be below 17%. And what we are seeing in Ireland is a positive trend in terms of house prices. So the market has been 6% up in '13. In Dublin, it has been more than 15% and the rest of Ireland is kind of 0. It's flat. So but you can see, clearly, house prices going up in Ireland, which is positive, on our nonperforming loans flat, if you discount the sale. In the commercial book, we continue with running [ph] down this portfolio. We are closed in Ireland for any type of business. And the good news in Ireland is that, in 2013, we have renewed the commercial book from GBP 5.5 billion to GBP 3.5 billion, so at this pace -- and we hope to continue with these reductions in the coming years. This is basically and the level of the impaired loans in the commercial book today is 88% and the level -- and we have increased the coverage in 2013 up to 72, I think, is the number. So I think we're in a -- most of what we have to do in terms of impairments we did last it last -- in the previous years.

Joseph Dickerson - Espirito Santo Investment Bank, Research Division

Management

It's Joe Dickerson from Jefferies. I just have 2 quick questions. Firstly, if I look at your primary liquidity portfolio the government bond component has gone up to about GBP 43 billion from GBP 29 billion. Could you just give us a sense of the duration of the bond portfolio? My second question is, if I look at the ECNs, I mean you said going forward the regulatory compliance was less certain. I mean what would be -- if that was to be called, what would be the impact to NAV? Because I think there is about GBP 1.5 billion derivative asset associated with that. And would you look to replace the ECN with other types of securities to potentially mitigate a [indiscernible]?

Mark George Culmer

Management

I mean, it all depends on price and all those sorts of things, I'm afraid I can't answer the particulars of your questions in terms of what might happen at certain places. It would depend upon the circumstance. I'm sorry, but I can't give you the particulars on that. On the gilt, the average duration of gilt is round about the 10-year type level. Juan Colombás: But our average duration of our gilt is 5 years, okay. António Mota de Sousa Horta-Osório: On the primary liquid portfolio, you also have to see that depending on base rates versus gilt levels and the asset swaps. We may change the mix between gilts and Bank of England deposits, right. So the number you quoted may be through the change of mix in terms of the relative yields of Bank of England deposits and then gilts, which we then do the asset swap. But our hedge has a 5-year average duration. Please? Ian Gordon - Investec Securities (UK), Research Division: Ian Gordon from Investec. I want to ask you 2 questions, please. You referenced the 0.5% drag to capital from pensions in 2013. Looking to 2014, obviously, 4 months ago, you initiated consultation on curtailing final salary pension scheme benefits. Firstly, can you give me some help in understanding the incremental capital benefit, either within Pillar 2A or more generally? And then secondly just to fill in the spreadsheet when you initiated consultation, i.e., conservatively estimated your one-off gain at GBP 400 million, I'm my ballpark, correct or too low?

Mark George Culmer

Management

Right, okay. I mean, pensions per se stays a relatively volatile number actually within the capital numbers. And so lot other questions we've had around capital and trying to project the pensions volatility is much a pain for us internally. So for example, it is something like every 20 basis points in discount rates gives you about GBP 1 billion swing factor. Now what we're doing within the pension scheme in a totality basis is derisking. And that's derisking in terms of asset composition, that's derisking in terms of our exposure to things like interest rate movements. We had a huge exercise going on which will reduce some of that volatility, as I've just talked about, and gives us benefits from the capital positions as well. To the capital and sort of P&L consequences of the actions being proposed, that action is still underway. And there are still consultation processes that are taking place within the company with regards to that. Is it the right thing to do? It's the right thing to do from a sort of risk management perspective in terms of managing the risk, the liabilities, the pensions liabilities, the GBP 30 billion or so that sits on our balance sheet. So it is undoubtedly the right thing for the company to be doing. The precise capital impact and the precise P&L impact is dependent upon what the members of that scheme decide to do and where those pension schemes are at any particular point. So whilst it will produce a benefit in terms of the scheme position, it will only count towards capital to the extent to which the capital scheme is currently in deficit, and that -- and it reduces that deficit. If a got a cap on a scheme that is currently in surplus, then add to that surplus, that does not count for capital add-on. So I can't give you a precise number. Similarly, which I'm going to frustrate you hugely here, is on the P&L side. It depends on the presumption of a successful vote, how many people actually stay within the scheme and how many people are opt out of the scheme, and that has an impact in terms of the P&Ls, the P&L consequence. What I will say to give you some -- you're right, it's a successful consultation period and a successful execution of what we think is the right thing to do in terms of the risk management within this business, would result in certainly a significant P&L plus and there would be some form of capital benefit, although it is very hard to quantify that at this moment in time. António Mota de Sousa Horta-Osório: Let's take one or 2 more questions. Anymore questions? You please.

Andrew P. Coombs - Citigroup Inc, Research Division

Management

It's Andrew Coombs from Citi. I think my number of questions have been answered. But perhaps a couple of strategy questions. Just firstly with regards to the consumer finance business. You mentioned your market share in credit cards is half that of the current accounts. If I could firstly ask why do you think that is so low and how do you go about rectifying that going forward? And second question with regards to Slide 26, you highlighted the benefit during your presentation of being entirely focused in AAA region without multiple jurisdictions. Osborne's on the record this morning as saying, if Scotland walks away from Britain, it walks away from the pound, so in the event of a yes vote discussion dependence, what would that mean for Bank of Scotland and then more broadly for Lloyds as well? António Mota de Sousa Horta-Osório: Look, in terms of the credit card market share, the precise number that we have in terms of market share is 15% while our current account market share is 25%, and debt is only 60% of our client market share if you want, so around half, as I told you. The reason why I think it is so low, which is absolutely connected with the reason why we are setting up the consumer finance division is because as you know, credit cards are both sold through the relationship channels as they are sold as a product on a category alone strategy. And we were only participating on the first leg and we now through the consumer finance division are going to participate as well in the second leg, like through co-branded, white labels, different channels and that's where the opportunity lies. The fact that we have the contact with the customer, we know the behavior of…

Arturo de Frias Marques - Grupo Santander, Research Division

Management

Yes, it's Arturo de Frias Marques from Santander again. I thought somebody will ask this question. I would like to ask you about competition. Obviously, the economy's picking up, and every bank is also enjoying a lower funding cost. So I guess that means inevitably that we're going to have more pressure particularly on asset prices and you have already shown in one of your slides that there is a 6 basis points, I think, negative impact on the asset side on your margin. So the question is would you expect this to continue? Would you expect this probably to get worse, and in which products you think you are going to see more and more pressure from your competitors? António Mota de Sousa Horta-Osório: Okay. Well, I think there are 2 main strategic points in relation to your question. The first one is our wholesale funding costs, which as we discussed, we are now at the 75% approximate CDS level, the lowest of any U.K. bank. So the market is anticipating further upgrades in terms of our position because we are now the lowest of any bank in the U.K. That will be quite positive as old maturities like the ones we issued in '10, '11 as they mature over time, and that is a point we covered before, and that is correct. And the second one is in terms of our customers' attitude in terms of loans and in terms of deposits. I think we have also a big competitive advantage here because of 2 reasons. The first one is that we have a multi-brand strategy and a multi-brand strategy is very appropriate in case of Lloyds because our client bases are very different. So the client base of Bank of Scotland in Scotland and Lloyds in England…

Michael Trippitt - Numis Securities Ltd., Research Division

Management

It's Mike Trippitt from Numis. I just wanted to ask you about capital and dividends. I mean we were under the impression, I think, towards the end of last year, there were discussions with the PRA about restarting dividends. And clearly, you've stated now that is -- you will have -- you will be able to reapply in the second half of this year. Macro feels better. Regulation feels a bit better. You've highlighted capital generation coming through. So is it right to conclude it's really PPI and the uncertainty around that, that has delayed a restart of the dividend or are there other factors? And what do you see as the risks in those discussions in the second half of 2014? António Mota de Sousa Horta-Osório: Well, I will ask George as well to comment. But I just want to clarify that we don't see any delay. I mean, every time I spoke to you here, or that I have had the investor meetings, both George and I, we have always guided investors to the fact that we were very hopeful that we would be able to pay dividends for the results of '14. And we have had discussions with PRA because things they have to see, 18 months ago, there was a series of capital changes, which we wanted to be sure that we have well understood and cleared before we applied for dividends. So now that we are considered a normal bank, like any other bank, what the PRA told us and that was both constructive and positive discussions was, okay, you are clear, now you can apply for dividends like any other bank after you show the results and we will obviously respond to whatever you apply. But the conversations with the PRA went in line with what we were expecting. And we had never given the impression that we were thinking of paying dividends before the results of '14. So I want keep [ph] clear and you know, and investors we spoke to also know I have no [indiscernible] to have anything.

Mark George Culmer

Management

I mean the discussions with PRA, which took place December, January, they were about the earnings direction of this business and what we could achieve, they were about clarifying things like PS-7, -13 et cetera what the requirements were. That formed the basis of the discussions. They weren't about PPI in '13 or whatever. It was where the franchise going and what the evolving regulatory requirements for the U.K. were. That was the basis of the discussions, I mean... António Mota de Sousa Horta-Osório: I think it would be fair to add because I understand where your question comes from perfectly. But you have to bear in mind that as we started discussions in quarter 3, we did not have the full profitability of 2013, and in the same way in which we had an additional provision much bigger than we could expect in terms of PPI, as I said, in that same way, as you know, in quarter 4, we have beaten consensus on the underlying profit by more than GBP 500 million, which in quarter 3, we were completely unaware of. And at the same time, we finalized the year with GBP 35 billion of non-core reductions, again, much bigger than what we thought. Releasing GBP 2.6 billion of capital, which we have committed to, as you know, just to be capital accretive. And as the year progressed, we had no idea how we would finish the year, so you have to see the whole thing combined. So we are exactly on the stage where we thought we were, and we are very confident that we will apply for this in the second half of the year and are very confident about the capital generation prospects of the bank, and that we'll be a high-dividend-paying stock in the future as per our stated dividend policy. Thank you very much for everybody. Thank you for coming. And we are available to speak more with you if you want on a one-to-one basis.