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Lloyds Banking Group plc (LYG)

Q4 2012 Earnings Call· Fri, Mar 1, 2013

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Transcript

Mark George Culmer

Management

Thanks, António, and good morning, everyone. I'll update you on our financial performance and then cover our balance sheet, funding, liquidity and capital positions. Starting with the P&L. As you have heard from Antonio, in 2012, we delivered a significantly improved performance, with reductions in costs and risks more than offsetting the expected lower income. Group underlying profit improved to GBP 2.6 billion with another strong performance from the core business at GBP 6.2 billion and a GBP 2 billion reduction in noncore losses. Group management profit was GBP 4.8 billion and includes the benefit of actions following the movement in yields and credit spreads in the second half of the year. Asset sales comprised gains of GBP 3.2 billion from gilt sales, as we reposition this portfolio given low yields and locked in our capital position. These gains were partly offset by losses on disposals of non-core assets of GBP 660 million, resulting in a net asset sales gain of GBP 2.5 billion. Liability management and owned debt volatility were GBP 229 million and GBP 270 million, respectively, and reflect the impact of our tighter spreads and buyback activity. Other volatile items were GBP 478 million, while the fair value line [ph] was GBP 650 million and well down on last year due to the lower level of impairments. Taken all together, these items come to some GBP 2.2 billion in total, in line with last year and offsetting some of the charges in statutory profit. Going forward, we will be simplifying our report. This is the last time we will be showing management profit as a separate line item, and we will focus instead on underlying and statutory profit. Looking at income. Group income was GBP 18.4 billion, with the movement on prior year mainly due to lower…

Mark Fisher

Management

Thank you, George. Good morning, everybody. I'll give you a brief update on our progress with costs and simplification. Looking at the total costs of 2012, as Antonio said earlier, we've seen the reduction of GBP 539 million, or 5%, to just over GBP 10 billion. This follows a reduction in 2011 of 4%, and I think the strength of our performance here is reinforced when you consider the downward trajectory of the total cost basis of 2010, where we delivered GBP 1 billion of savings over the period. Indeed, since the acquisition HBOS, we've reduced costs by more than GBP 2 billion or just in the 18%. If we look into slightly more detail, you can see that the final saving from integration of GBP 177 million and then simplification savings of nearly GBP 600 million, which are the primary driver of the overall reduction, this supports a further investment of another GBP 170 million in our strategic initiatives, in line with our aim of reinvesting 1/3 of simplification savings back into the business. Full year costs of GBP 10.082 billion take us very close to the cost target of around GBP 10 billion by the end of 2014 that we talked about when we launched the strategy in July 2011. So we've effectively hit this target 2 years early, and we now expect total costs for 2013 to be GBP 9.8 billion or around that. As I've said earlier, simplification is a big part of the cost reduction in 2012. The annual run rate savings increased by GBP 605 million to GBP 847 million, and we remain bang on track to meet the increased target of GBP 1.9 billion run rate savings at the end of 2014 that we announced last year. And I can tell you the…

Thomas Rayner - Exane BNP Paribas, Research Division

Management

It's Tom Rayner from Exane BNP Paribas. Could I have 2 questions, please? Just first on margin guidance, 198, I mean, could I encourage you to add a core margin guidance to that figure? And I'd also be interested to understand a bit more about how the gilt sales at the end of 2012 is affecting both core and potentially group margin going forward and deposit repricing as well, if you could update us on your thoughts. And I have a second question on Verde, if possible, please? António Mota de Sousa Horta-Osório: Okay. Let's start with margin, and George will address that question.

Mark George Culmer

Management

Yes, certainly. First of all, yes, sorry, I -- we're going to bust it out into where the core margin will go and the noncore margin will go. But I think as you've just seen from the trends for 2012, you can see the strength and stability of that core margin. In terms of the guidance, there are obviously a number of sort of components to this, so numbers sort of pluses and minuses we've got. So going through the sort of pluses first, obviously, you've got things at that decreasing proportion of noncore that I referred to in my presentation. We've also got the shift in overfunding of the group in terms of moving away from wholesale to the deposit funding. So those are positives. You've also got the benefits from things like the debt buybacks, et cetera, that we took action on in the second half of last year. Going the other way though, accessing some of those changes in deposit and wholesale prices will take time. It could take time for the deposit book to churn. We, as I said in my presentation, we don't expect to be materially active in the wholesale market in 2013. Also going other way, there is the run-off on things like this -- the structural hedge, which will be a slight drag. And then coming to a particular point on the gilts, yes, as I said in my presentation as Antonio did, we were big seller of gilts through 2012, accelerating that towards the back end as yields came down even further, so we sold out and realized that gave [ph] the GBP 3.2 billion with yields at around 160, 170, et cetera. We did that predominantly for economic reasons. We saw that there was value at that price, and I…

Thomas Rayner - Exane BNP Paribas, Research Division

Management

[indiscernible] maybe with changing roles in LCR. You'll be able to switch into some -- well, less liquid, higher -- higher-margin asset [indiscernible].

Mark George Culmer

Management

[indiscernible] is not flexibility. I mean, to your point, we sort of -- we now have that flexibility. António Mota de Sousa Horta-Osório: I think it is important to add 2 things here, Tom. So we have said here quarter-after-quarter that we thought, as interest rates were going down, we did not think that our shareholders' money should be used in 10-year gilts sub-inflation. So as George said, as interest rates continue to decrease and reached very, very low levels in quarter 4, we have accelerated that for the reasons you heard. I think it is important to add the following. Going forward, you have 2 impacts: one is a mere accounting impact, which is gilts on the -- that were in the portfolio have much higher yields and we have switched that through a capital gain. But there is a second impact, which is, given that rates were very low and we still think they are low, we are keeping our liquidity assets much shorter duration than before and then you have, obviously, an opportunity cost, which is the 10-year yield term. Now with 2 [ph] and short-term money of 50 basis points, that is a real opportunity cost but it has a risk as well, but you have the 2 impacts. So that 8 basis points George is telling you, that would otherwise been added to the NIM guidance, so that 198 plus a 206 is both part of an economic impact and an accounting impact. On the economic impact, we think we should continue to put your money at lower durations. The accounting impact is just a change between future guidance, and locked-in present capital gains, which are already in the capital position.

Thomas Rayner - Exane BNP Paribas, Research Division

Management

Just on the IPO -- I didn't mean to say that. On the Verde -- I honestly didn't... António Mota de Sousa Horta-Osório: Come on, you were thinking about another IPO.

Thomas Rayner - Exane BNP Paribas, Research Division

Management

If IPO was to become an option, I'd just like to get a sense of what, if any, incremental costs there might be of going down that route than continuing on the route you want to come. António Mota de Sousa Horta-Osório: Right. Well, as we've said here before, we are absolutely committed to our plan a, which is to sign the SPA [ph] after the MoU signed with the core [ph] plus [ph] year. And we have said before that we -- that we're expecting to sign the SPA [ph] by the end of quarter 1, as we are in March 1. So at the same time as we said that, Tom, we also said that we felt the right thing to do was to prepare this bank, prepare this deal to be done as a full-fledged bank, we were building the bank and you are going to see the TSB Bank in the summer in August in the high street competing with the other brands. So either we proceed with our plan a, which we are absolutely committed to doing, either, we can divert to plan b, which is a IPO as it has always been. But up to now, the path is the same because we are building the bank, we are now putting the cost that was across from all the bank, the branches of Lloyds in Scotland and Wales into Lloyds TSB Scotland. Lloyds TSB Scotland is what -- is the Verde project and will become the TSB Bank and will be there by the summer. So if you ask the cooperative group, which you should probably ask that question as we have asked, they say they are completely committed to completing this deal, and we are trying to help them as much as possible in order to do it, and that's where we are focused on.

Thomas Rayner - Exane BNP Paribas, Research Division

Management

The incremental costs might not be material, is that fair? António Mota de Sousa Horta-Osório: It is fair to say that we are under plan a, and so far, we are not so focused in this stage about plan b, but both are following the same path, so they don't change from alternative to alternative at this stage. Please? Raul Sinha - JP Morgan Chase & Co, Research Division: It's Raul Sinha from JPMorgan. If I can have 2 questions, please. Firstly, thanks so much for the disclosure on the PPI and the claim rates. It looks like the claim rate that is currently being seen across the market is quite low. And if I compare that to the relative provision that you have remaining on the balance sheet, I think you say GBP 150 million a month for the first half of the year, you would need a significant pickup in the rate of claims to take another PPI provision. Is that a correct way of thinking about it? António Mota de Sousa Horta-Osório: I think it's better -- difficult question, let better George handle it.

Mark George Culmer

Management

I've had practice at this one. Look, we said at Q3 that come the year end, we would have more information than we have, and that's part just the -- just the passage of time, but partly, they gave -- gives us a full seasonality. We've got the full month, actually, of sort of PPI at sort of full throttle coming through. What we've done, as you see -- we sort of at the end of the year had an unutilized provision of 0.9. As I've said, we've added 1.5 to that, so that gives us an unutilized provision of 2.4. What we've done reflects a bit of what we've seen in terms of uphold rates, costs, et cetera. Above all, we've sort of taken a sort of a revised view of the ultimate likely costs. Yes, the charts that we've shown show you how complaints are coming down, and consequently, costs are coming down. And you can see those sort of 20% falls Q4 on Q3, et cetera. The -- on the average spend, that average monthly run rate, I think, we said we expect it to be round about GBP 200 million for Q4 per month. And it was -- December was about GBP 150 million. There's a December effect in that, and so if you normalize that, you're up about the sort of GBP 160 million, et cetera. Given the trajectory, I think, as I said in the presentation, I expect that GBP 160 million to stay at about that level because we're going to do some sort of past business reviews of the first half of 2013, and then to fall away after that. Now that's based on our expectations, that's based on our outlook. And if you do the math, you see that we have significant monthly coverage. Now uncertainties do remain, I should say that, but what we've tried to do is put a provision that provides for a significant number of months of our claims. Raul Sinha - JP Morgan Chase & Co, Research Division: The second question was on capital for António. I think it was a positive surprise to see the fully loaded bond 3 number up to 8.1, and especially given -- if you note that one of your peers which operates, I would say, a somewhat more risky a business model has just raised the dividend with a similar Core Tier 1 ratio recently on a fully loaded basis, would it be right to think that it's pretty much that shrinking statutory loss that remains [indiscernible] in the dividend? António Mota de Sousa Horta-Osório: George?

Mark George Culmer

Management

I mean, I didn't -- I'm not sure your question -- what the last part of that question. Raul Sinha - JP Morgan Chase & Co, Research Division: Is it just the statutory loss that remains between you declaring a restarting of dividend now?

Mark George Culmer

Management

On with the key bit of your question is the [Indiscernible]. António Mota de Sousa Horta-Osório: [indiscernible] This was not agreed with Basel. But I have -- this is the third results presentation where I have to tell you the same thing. I -- we have a highly capital generative model, as you know, because we have decided, as you know, to -- given the difficult economic environment, lower interest rates, we have decided to focus the bank creating a competitive advantage in costs and in lower risk, and therefore, as a consequence, all the nominal -- the nominal cost decreases we are achieving and the significantly lower impairments, not only from the core bank, but especially from the reduction of non-core assets because as we said, there's no more impairments going forward, all that flows directly through the bottom line as you were saying. So we are generating as much capital as possible, going into that direction, we believe of Basel, we don't know exactly what does that -- what the intensity is, right? And given that lending in the U.K. is not growing, we are not using capital to support lending because net-net terms, the economy is not growing in terms of lending. So everything is -- in our strategy is capital generative. So what is going to happen now? Finally, I think that after this bonus cap approval, the CRD IV [indiscernible] is going to come up, and then the CRD IV [indiscernible] is going to come up. We, that have been going to the right direction, I think, are going to see the specificities of the paper, what's going to happen mainly with the insurance deductions, where we are being very conservative because we are assuming Article 45 and not 46, and as we see the paper, as I said now by the third time, I will be able to discuss with FSA and [indiscernible] what is our capital plan, what is the strategy that FSA wants us to do, and [indiscernible], what is our pass-through dividend policy, which I will come back and tell you. So I think this is probably the last time I'm giving you this answer. But in any way, we are working more than we thought, so as you said, quicker than we thought, towards debt capital ratio that we thought we will be at the end of 2014. Please?

Chris Manners - Morgan Stanley, Research Division

Management

Chris Manners from Morgan Stanley. Just 3 questions, if I may. So I was looking at Page 130 at the fully loaded Basel III leverage ratio, 3.1%, and I thought given António's comment on the treasury side committee about leverage ratios as well being -- are off in is thinking, as well as risk-based capital measures and Parliamentary Commission on Banking Standards suggesting that the Vickers [ph] 4% leverage ratio to be implemented, at what sort of leverage ratio would you like to [Audio Gap] on a consistent basis? I know you gave -- your Core Tier 1, you want to be above 10. Do you have a leverage ratio in mind? António Mota de Sousa Horta-Osório: We feel very comfortable with whatever of the ratios is approved. I mean, our ratio that you see in that page as you just mentioned is not comparable with what other banks presented. It's not presented on the same basis. We are very comfortable either with 3 or 4, and what I think so from an industry point of view that you have to be careful going to 3 instead of 4, because if you go to 3, instead of 4, there are 2 important mainly mortgage banks in the U.K., it would have a restriction. But for us, given that we are a broader -- much broader commercial and retail bank, either 3 or 4 would not be relevant in our case.

Chris Manners - Morgan Stanley, Research Division

Management

And I had a question on loan growth. Obviously, you're talking about loan growth in second half of the year, just trying to work out where specifically in core that would be, and also, you've got 120% LDR in core. Are you comfortable with that or would you [indiscernible] António Mota de Sousa Horta-Osório: We have what, sorry? We have what?

Chris Manners - Morgan Stanley, Research Division

Management

Loan-to-deposit ratio in retail core, 120%. Is that something you're going to continue to run down or you're happy with that? António Mota de Sousa Horta-Osório: Right. Well, we consider the loan-to-deposit ratio on a group basis, and because I think that's the right thing to do, given that for example, Wealth, which is highly deposit generative, is not included in Retail. So to look at it in Retail alone, I don't think it's the right thing to do. We also have a on-line deposit business outside of Retail, so -- you have to look at it as a whole. And this we said in the strategic review, I thought at a time, and remember, this bank came from a loan-to-deposit ratio of 169%, just to put it into perspective, that achieving by '14 less than 120% in the core would be a good achievement. We are now at 101% in the core, and we are at 121% in the total group. I think this is correct because as we continue to share the non-core assets, the group loan-to-deposit ratio will turn to the core and will become close to 100%. So you can expect us continuing to increase deposits although at a lower pace. We will probably increase deposits more in line with the market, because we have already 2 years ahead of target to reach our target for '14, and also our long-term target for the core. What will happen in terms of lending? And my comment in terms of lending, as I said in the presentation, you have to take them in the context that I believe business lending to U.K. non-financial corporations will continue to be negative in 2013. So as I told you at the Q3 results, I continue to expect SME lending in our…

Manus Costello - Autonomous Research LLP

Management

It's Manus Costello from Autonomous. I just wondered if you can give us some more color on your decision to issue equity to pay the coupons on the Tier 1 bonds, because it seems suddenly the price, given the confidence you're talking about in your capital generation and the fact that you were calling a low Tier 2 the bond the other day, they seem somewhat contradictory actions. And just as a follow-up on that, I wondered if you can give us an update on what your plans are for the stake and some changes placed and what any sale would do for your capital position? António Mota de Sousa Horta-Osório: [indiscernible]

Mark George Culmer

Management

Yes, I'll do the first one. And I'm quite happy to reiterate our confidence in our capital position and how that capital is developing, and how that capital position will move as we move forward. But in terms of those particular instruments, what we're doing is applying a policy that is entirely consistent with last year, and that's all I have to say. António Mota de Sousa Horta-Osório: And relating to St. James Place, which I am going to reiterate, I find it's a great company. It's doing very well. I think it will probably be a winner of the RDR. Prices are increasing in the market in line with good performance, as they delivered yesterday, and we are very happy with the way the share price is going.

Unknown Analyst

Management

Sorry. Just to follow up on that statement, George, except that it's the same policies you adopted last year, but in the numbers you're showing is your capital position is materially stronger this year and your outlook on capital is all optimistic. So why do you adopt the same position? Is it your decision or is it a regulatory decision?

Mark George Culmer

Management

Well, thank you for those comments on our capital position. It's not material, and we are just being consistent with last year. Ian Gordon - Investec Securities (UK), Research Division: It's Ian Gordon from Investec. I've got 1 request and 2 questions. In order to -- the request is, in order just to follow your progress against the core balance sheet, footings, guidance, do you think we could have some divisional disclosure at the quarterly statement, please? And then the 2 questions are, first of all, on other income. Could you just provide a little bit more color on the expected weak performance in retail other income and the encouraging performance in corporate other income? And then thirdly, I'm not asking for quantification, but would you be prepared to hazard [ph] a guess as to whether the reports of an end of summertime scale for your LIBOR settlement with at least the U.K. and U.S. authorities is ballpark correct? António Mota de Sousa Horta-Osório: I'm sorry. Can you repeat your last bit of the question? I think you asked 3 questions, but the third one wasn't... Ian Gordon - Investec Securities (UK), Research Division: Yes. I was just asking if you'd hazard [ph] a guess, whether the reports [ph] of a end of summer settlement for your LIBOR settlement with U.K. and U.S. authorities is likely to be ballpark correct. I'm not asking for quantification, just a guess in terms of timescale.

Mark George Culmer

Management

Look, LIBOR -- as we said, you'll see from our disclosures, that our position is fundamentally unchanged. We are not the focus of the authorities, be it in London, be it Europe, be it in New York, and that's not something that we passively sit back and wait, and we're very proactive. So we are not focused to their attentions. They may be others who are a better informed in terms of likely settlements or whatever, but we're not the party to be speaking to. To your first question, your request on the reporting bit, I'll take that onboard. We are trying to simplify and shorten our reporting, which may fly [ph] in the face of your request, but I'll take it onboard. António Mota de Sousa Horta-Osório: Okay. And I'll answer to your second bits, which is -- I think the way I look at the divisional performance is, retail have very good performance this year, where impairments and costs more than offsets slight decrease in income, which is basically originated by interest rate movements during the year and also a decrease in volumes, as we have just discussed. And the LOI [ph] in retail specifically, you have to see it in a context where the markets have not been good, so you have less investment sales. In terms of bancassurance, they also normally go down when economic [indiscernible] are more difficult. So I would say, it's just particular in the context of the year. I think retail has been very good performance and has set up the prices [ph] to have a much -- an even better year in '13. And you have to see that we have a very powerful retail franchise with 3 leading brands really complementary between themselves, so with a clear multi-brand approach to…

Michael Helsby - BofA Merrill Lynch, Research Division

Management

It's Michael Helsby from Merrill Lynch. I've got 2 questions and if I can have a request as well actually. Could you give us an average balance sheet that gives me the yield and the -- on your assets and your liabilities? There's a lot of questions about margin. I think that would be really, really helpful. So just on the margin, that's the first question. I think you've helpfully give us the 8 basis points impact from the hedge. So we've got a 13 basis point underlying increase, for want [ph] of a better word. Could you give us -- you've also identified quite a lot of changes, but could you help us by breaking down that 13 bps into how you see it from asset spread, deposit spread? You mentioned the wholesale funding buybacks and also the negative impact of the hedge. The reason I ask is clearly, there's been a lot of movement within deposit pricing recently, so I just like to get a gauge of what you're factoring in, that would be really, really helpful. The second question, which I can go now is just on costs. I was wondering if you could give us a split of where the rest of your simplification costs are going to fall, is that all in core or does an element of that go into non-core? And if you can give us a gauge of how you see the non-core cost base in 2014. António Mota de Sousa Horta-Osório: I'll start with the costs because that's an easier bit [ph], then I'll leave the difficult one for George on the margin split. Look, on costs, I think what I saw this morning very quickly on the note, I think it's a bit equivocated because what we basically did on…

Mark Fisher

Management

Yes. Okay. The very easy job I have to do of reducing costs. It's really -- if you think of it as a portfolio that I talked about, relationship with the suppliers and sourcing, those things we got on with very quickly at the start of the program because you can do them quickly, things like the -- reshaping the organization through -- it expands less. So those are the early deliverables that given a lot of the progress that you see to date. Meanwhile, we're working very hard, actually doing the heavy lifting of reengineering customer processes, claims handling, those things, which take time, they're big bills, typically lots of IT, they typically take 12 to 18 months to do. So clearly, it's only now that those things are starting to mature and flow through. So the latter part of the program has much more coming through of our heavy lifting reengineering point. Having said that, the supplier side is going so well, we've actually got more to go there as well. So that's why we're confident that the second half of the program, as it were, can hit their targets that we've set.

Mark George Culmer

Management

On your question on margins for [indiscernible], your request for average balance sheet, and so I'm starting a list, obviously, of disclosure things. But on the NIM projections, I'm not going to give you a detailed breakdown of where I see assets or where I see deposit price. Again, obviously, as you said, that deposit prices are coming off, but it's not just a question of new pricing. It's obviously the interaction between maturing deposits and the new prices. And we are obviously, as you know, seeing significant movements on the asset side of the balance sheet as well. So -- and I know if I search entirely, the number I will give you though is in terms of the structural hedge. We would expect that to have about a headwind of about -- round about 6 basis points in 2013.

Michael Helsby - BofA Merrill Lynch, Research Division

Management

Can I just come back on the costs because -- I'm not doubting for one second that you can cut costs, I'm just asking -- maybe I'm misunderstanding, but you've identified the simplification costs that you've got left. So I'm just trying to ask, is that all -- that sounds like it's all in the core that's all going to come off the core cost base. António Mota de Sousa Horta-Osório: Okay. Well, no, no, that's a good question. No. The simplification was the main program that we have designed. We are going ahead of our simplification target as you heard. But at the same time, we are doing a systematic benchmarking of all the bank versus the best area in the world in that specific area. So we have a best program ongoing on top of simplification, which is to compare productivity metrics, organization. In all the areas we are comparing ourselves with the best in each of the areas and we are continuously reassessing how we benchmark and we want to be either the best in that area in the field or not to be in that field at all. So that is on top of what we are currently doing and that is a process we've started in the second half of last year and that will have more room to go.

Michael Helsby - BofA Merrill Lynch, Research Division

Management

But you're not prepared to give -- I'm just trying to gauge the non-core, because you've got your plan, so you've got your vision of where non-core assets are going to be. So I'm just trying to gauge what the cost base is, because clearly, then non-core is going to get soaked [ph] back into the bank. I'm just trying to gauge what that... António Mota de Sousa Horta-Osório: I cannot tell you everything, Michael. I mean, as you say, the retail assets will come back to the core, so you can make an assumption of how much of the cost are on the retail assets. They will come back to the core. We have assets that will go to 0 in time, right, so less than 35 by '14, and then to 0 in time, and those are the assumptions you should make and you should also see that they're as variable as possible with the caveat I told you about when they're in a region, it's not totally variable, it's [indiscernible] variable. Other questions? In the back, please. We now have to go in the back a little bit. Yes, please?

Rohith Chandra-Rajan - Barclays Capital, Research Division

Management

Rohith Chandra-Rajan at Barclays. A couple just on your impairment guidance, if I could, please. Just in terms of this significant reduction that you anticipate for 2013, I wondered if you could comment how consistent that is with, I think, consensus for your impairments to fold by close to 20% and whether that's primarily driven by non-core? António Mota de Sousa Horta-Osório: Speaking about the confidence for impairments?

Rohith Chandra-Rajan - Barclays Capital, Research Division

Management

Yes. Consensus for impairments is down 20% in 2013. How does that -- is that consistent with your guidance? António Mota de Sousa Horta-Osório: Well, we are not -- we cannot give you all the variables, okay? We do already gave you the volumes, the managing, the costs. We are not going to give the impairments. But I think, without looking at the consensus number, I think the way to think about the impairments is our core business will continue to perform at approximately the same level and the non-core reductions will imply an additional significant decrease in impairments, as it happened last year. So I think the way -- given we have been sharing with [ph] across the board, I think you should split core and non-core. Core is very close to its average long-term AQR and the non-core is going down at an accelerated pace and impairments of non-core will go down with it. That's the way I would look at it. I don't know if you want to add anything, George. I think that's the best way to think about it.

Mark George Culmer

Management

I think that's the best way to look at it, yes. António Mota de Sousa Horta-Osório: Yes.

Rohith Chandra-Rajan - Barclays Capital, Research Division

Management

Now that's very clear. And then just a follow-up to that is, to what degree your guidance reflects any work the FSA has been doing on asset evaluation? António Mota de Sousa Horta-Osório: Sorry, I don't hear you very well.

Rohith Chandra-Rajan - Barclays Capital, Research Division

Management

So the question is, to what degree your expectation on impairments reflects the work that the FSA has been doing on asset evaluation? António Mota de Sousa Horta-Osório: That's a very good question, one of my favorites. I think the best confirmation that we have a good and appropriate improvement provisioning policy and the proper marks is the speed at which we sell non-core in a capital-accretive matter. And we told you last year we would sell GBP 25 billion and we have increased that to GBP 30 billion. When we got to GBP 31 billion, we said GBP 38 billion and we finished at GBP 42 billion. So we sold GBP 42 billion capital-accretive matter, generating GBP 1.2 billion in the process, which is interesting in an FBC context because we are generating capital as we sell the non-core assets. And when you look at it, you can see that the GBP 42 billion in percentage terms are bigger, are larger than the previous year, as you saw in the presentation. So we have increased the acceleration, we have increased the rate of decrease of non-core and when you look at risk-weighted assets, you see that assets, the GBP 42 billion, decreased to 30%, the RWA has decreased 33%, so risk decreased even more than the assets. And the 33% decrease in RWAs, which is GBP 36 billion, is larger in absolute terms than the RWAs of the previous year reduction, which was GBP 35 billion. I think that says everything about our remarks and our capacity to sell non-core assets in a capital-accretive way. Please, and with this, we come to the front of the room again.

Peter Toeman - HSBC, Research Division

Management

Peter Toeman from HSBC. On a similar point, the FBC has been concerned about inappropriate risk weighting for banks and obviously, a lot of commentary about your 16% risk-weighting on the mortgage books. So I presume you're not expecting any pushback from Andrew Bailey when you have your discussion? António Mota de Sousa Horta-Osório: Look, as George and myself, we both said -- and George may give some color on that. We are very comfortable with our capital position. And you can see the capacity of generating capital when quarter after quarter, both our core Tier 1 ratio on normal basis, on a fully-loaded basis, increased by 25 basis points a quarter on average in spite of legacy provisions, which will be substantially lower going forward. So we have an enormous capacity of generating capital. The marks, I just answered, cumbered [ph] we have answered before. And in terms of the risk-weighted assets and those models, they have been agreed with our regulator. We think we are reasonably in the middle of the pack, and we are very comfortable as a whole. I think the main point in the U.K. last year was actually the shift in focus from a pure financial stability view into a balanced view between financial stability and growth and support to the economy when you saw in the summer, substantial changes in the liquidity rules and the implementation of the funding for lending scheme. I think those are the facts, as I said in our Q3 IMS and in our conference call, that changes a balance that shows a much more balanced approach towards a holistic solution of the program, which I think is the right one, and I do not think you are going to see significant changes to that approach.

Chintan Joshi - Nomura Securities Co. Ltd., Research Division

Management

Chintan Joshi from Nomura. Can I ask you on core loan growth from the second half? In case U.K. GDP doesn't grow, would you still expect to grow core lending? António Mota de Sousa Horta-Osório: I haven't thought about that. We expect U.K. GDP growth of around 1%. So we expect some trends, slight improvement and we think the Funding for Lending Scheme will help. If GDP disappoints and stays like last year around 0, I still think we will grow because what we are [indiscernible] is not GDP driven. What we are is internal policy [ph] driven. So minor changes of GDP will not change our actions. We may have to make the bigger effort or a slower effort, but I expect to grow our core lending in a fully [ph] lending market. Small changes of GDP will not change that, they will change the intensity of our actions.

Chintan Joshi - Nomura Securities Co. Ltd., Research Division

Management

So then if I take that forward, you've given some disclosure in the Appendix regarding your share of remortgage, which is one area where it's below the market levels. Is that an area that you would look to pick up your market share in and therefore, might need to be more competitive? António Mota de Sousa Horta-Osório: No, no, no. As I said before, in mortgages, we only -- our objective is to grow with the market from second quarter onwards because of the reasons of core loan-to-deposit ratio, 25% market share, and we are going to continue to be focused on first-time buyers because we think that is the real important part to support the U.K. economy. So that is our focus, so -- and the rest, we'll grow with the market. Where we are going to significantly outpace the market is on the business lending, keeping SMEs for the third year in a row positive in a falling market and turning around the mid corporates and the large corporates into positive in a falling market within prudent risk procedure. [ph]

Chintan Joshi - Nomura Securities Co. Ltd., Research Division

Management

George, if I could just [indiscernible] question. I understand it's very tricky to give this margin moving guidance. But broadly speaking, deposits are improving, Wholesale funding is improving. So in that mix, it's asset pricing that's probably giving some back, so that net-net, you're at 198. Is that fair?

Mark George Culmer

Management

That's not bad assessment. There are other headwinds going on as well, other sort of factors, but that assessment's not bad summary.

Sandy Chen - Cenkos Securities plc., Research Division

Management

It's Sandy Chen from Cenkos Securities. Just, well, 2 questions. One on mortgage arrears and just to read across. Looking at Page -- Slide 19, it looks like the mortgage arrears have been relatively flat for quite a while, trying to put that together with the properties and repossession, which has to come down and also, the guidance on mortgage forbearance which has also come down. Putting all those things together, does that imply a lot of restructuring of loans into interest only that are not included in the loan forbearance numbers, or have I misread that?

Unknown Executive

Management

No, they are, they are. In forbearance, we include the restructurings in interest-only mortgage. The important thing in forbearance, as you're saying, is the trends and the trends are decreasing, so they have nothing that is being accommodated behind the number that we have in arrears. So our views on the mortgage portfolio is a flattish trend. They were in arrears is in the non-core book because as we have said, it is a time for this book to season and it is seasoning. And if you're starting to see the decrease in the arrears of our closed book, which is good news. So I think what you could expect in a mortgage market is that kind of flattish trend for '13 [indiscernible].

Sandy Chen - Cenkos Securities plc., Research Division

Management

And the other question that I had was on the core Tier 1 ratio, the 8.1% I think that you've given. Does that include the pension -- IAS 19 pension corridor adjustment, the GBP 2.1 billion? And what would your estimate be of the -- of how much fully-loaded would come down?

Mark George Culmer

Management

No. As I've said in my presentation, that becomes effective from the 1st of January, and one of the things I think it will bring is a bit of interfered [ph] volatility. What I would say is though that stepping back, I generally expect our core Tier 1 on the current rules under fully loads will continue to increase because of the core earnings and the continued accretive non-core reduction. The IAS 19 will bring some volatility. It's not the full GBP 2.1 billion in terms of impact, because what happens at the moment is, we will move from -- we've got an asset that we recognize on the balance sheet and we'll move to a deficit, but for capital ratio purposes, you can't count the asset. So actually, it's not the full movement. So we estimate -- actually the impact on current rules would be around -- it came in at about 40 basis points. It's probably now down to about 30 basis points in terms of the impact. It will be quite volatile. One of the things that we're doing internally is working with the pension scheme trustees just to save [ph] the way we can actually reduce that volatility, but it will be about 30 basis points on current rules. António Mota de Sousa Horta-Osório: More questions? The lady on the back.

Claire Kane - RBC Capital Markets, LLC, Research Division

Management

It's Claire Kane from Royal Bank of Canada. I have a question on your -- the best way to really look at liquidity from your perspective. You've given us some ratios on Slide 21 and your liquidity portfolio is pretty much flat year-on-year, but relative to your Wholesale funding, it's really increased. I was wondering if you could confirm whether you're compliant with the LCR or if that is something you are working towards, and then how we should think about the liquidity portfolio in absolute terms coming down over the course of 2013. And then my second question, I was wondering if you could give us some more details on your comments on your plans to optimize the capital structure this year, please?

Mark Fisher

Management

Yes. So I will give be very specific on the second point. Obviously, we've got rule changes coming up and we will continue to scrutinize our balance sheet and plan and to see what is the most appropriate structure for going forward. So sorry but for some very obvious commercial reasons, I mean, I'm not going to sit here and tell you what we might do. But what we are doing is generally looking at the balance sheet. As I said in my presentation, there's no need for any material Wholesale funding, but we will probably be -- look at tactical opportunities, let's say, and we will continue to scrutinize our balance sheet and see what we can do to make as efficient as possible in the regulatory world to come. In terms of the first question, liquidity, yes. I mean, we don't disclose in terms of compliance with liquidity requirements, be it ILG and LCR. Obviously, there's been -- there is some rule changes in LCR. We feel very comfortable in terms of our liquidity position and in terms of compliance with the regulatory requirements and we will always be looking to deploy that liquidity we've got as profitably as possible and look to -- or always, I think, actually looking to put it to use. But what I can tell you is in terms of regulatory compliance, we are very comfortable with both ILG and LCR compliance. António Mota de Sousa Horta-Osório: And I think you should look at our liquidity in the context, as I also said in my speech, of the journey. Because 18 months ago, this bank had GBP 300 billion of Wholesale funding; 1/2 of it, GBP 150 billion short-term Wholesale funding, funding the 5 [ph] mortgage portfolio. And now, of the GBP 150 billion, we only have GBP 50 billion. So we have repaid the GBP 100 billion of short-term Wholesale funding, and the GBP 126 billion of Wholesale funding together, which completely changed the funding and liquidity position of this bank. Of course, it's a big cost, because short-term funding costs you LIBOR and Wholesale funding or deposits probably cost you 2% over LIBOR. So that implies, as you can imagine, that implies like more than GBP 0.5 billion -- GBP 1.5 billion of less income that I would argue it is income that should never have been there in the first place. And second, it is complete and therefore, given it is complete, you will no longer see this impact going forward. More questions? Please, on the back?

Unknown Analyst

Management

It's [indiscernible] speaking from Redburn. I know it's I think about 1 week ago now, there is sale of some non-core asset, countrywide assets to you and Oakshot [ph]. In the sale of the assets, you provided some debt financing to Countrywide. My understanding was vendor isn't done on a non-core business. I was wanting to get an idea, does that debt as you remain in non-core, or does that get transferring to the core business?

Unknown Executive

Management

No. Well, I will not comment on this specific transaction. But I can tell you the way we are managing the non-core disposals. So the stable finance that we are going to non-core deposits is minimal if we -- our policy has been not to do it. I have to tell you, it is not an exclusion, so in the case, if we think it is appropriate, we do it. But our policy has been to do the non-core reductions without any kind of vendor finance.

Unknown Analyst

Management

Does that financing then stay in the non-core to that transported core?

Unknown Executive

Management

It depends on the transaction. It is a minimal type of thing. It's very, very small.

Unknown Analyst

Management

And just one more question on margin. Obviously, you talked about an 8-bp headwind. But how much unrealized gains are left in the gilt portfolio? Are you to going to continue to sell them? And what kind of headwind does that have on margin? António Mota de Sousa Horta-Osório: Well, we feel -- so as of December 31, we have then, as George said, most of it, but we still had some and we have continued to sell them. So I cannot sell much more. But we have continued to sell them, although now we stopped because now interest rates are above 2. But we have continued to sell them through January. Although most of it have been done, so the GBP 3.2 billion you saw was most of it. I mean, to be -- to start to put it to perspective. So we have some left, we have then part of the sum [ph] left, still have a bit of the sum [ph] left. But again, the point is very clear that I think you should take. We thought for a long time, and that's why we acted according to what we thought, that we should not have shareholders' money in 10-year gilts of inflation, that was the basic thing. So as rates went down, we saw more and more. As rates started to come up, we saw less and less but fortunately, we have almost finished. Okay. Michael, again?

Michael Helsby - BofA Merrill Lynch, Research Division

Management

Michael Helsby of Merrill Lynch. Just 2 points of detail actually. You mentioned in your comments before about how your CRD IV deduction is still on Article 45, not 46. Can you just remind us again what the benefit of moving from one to the other would be? António Mota de Sousa Horta-Osório: It would be at least 20%.

Michael Helsby - BofA Merrill Lynch, Research Division

Management

Right. Okay. And just on your DTA deduction, is that all that on U.K. business, i.e. so U.K. corporation tax should be also [indiscernible]

Mark George Culmer

Management

It's a very, very vast majority of that, yes, as we guided, yes. António Mota de Sousa Horta-Osório: Very little international presence most of it is [Indiscernible]. More questions? Manus, again. What have you found this time?

Manus Costello - Autonomous Research LLP

Management

It's just what I've not found actually, just a quick follow-up. The fair value on mind, we don't have any guidance on it for '13, '14 and '15, and you say it's now moving below the line, so I wonder if you could give us an idea of what the impact will be for the next few years. António Mota de Sousa Horta-Osório: [Indiscernible] moving forward.

Mark George Culmer

Management

All right. It's by [indiscernible] we used to give guidance on it and then be wrong all the time, so we stopped doing that. I mean, I think for 2013, it's going to be moved into a negative and I think that will be above a 0.3, or something like, 0.3 negative of that order, but... António Mota de Sousa Horta-Osório: Any more questions? Okay. So we are done. Well, again, thank you very much for coming and we'll speak a bit more if you want us to [ph]. Thank you.