Mark Behrman
Analyst · Goldman Sachs. Please proceed with your question
Thank you, Kristy and good morning everyone. As always, we appreciate your interest in LSB Industries and are happy that you can join our call this morning. We certainly have a lot to talk about today. Between our record Q2 results, the strong market environment for our products on both sides of our business, which gives us reason to be very optimistic about the second half of the year and our recently announced preferred stock exchange transaction. These are exciting times at LSB. While unfortunately, we are not yet at the point where we can look at the COVID-19 pandemic in the rearview mirror, continued widespread vaccination in the U.S. has enabled many people to resume a close to normal life. This has fueled economic activity across the nation to a degree that has exceeded even the most optimistic predictions about the pandemic recovery and in some cases, has caused stress on the supply chain and shortages and price inflation for many products and services. However, suffice it to say, our key industrial end markets have been beneficiaries of the economic rebound as evidenced by the greater than 100% year-over-year growth in industrial product sales that you see in the earnings press release we issued last night. On the agricultural side of our business, the market factors that came together in late 2020, early 2021, to ignite a surge in demand for the products we produce and sell remain intact as we sit here today. Past the midpoint of the year, these favorable market fundamentals are providing us not only with a favorable outlook for the second half of this year, but also strong optimism for 2022. Beginning on Slide 3, we summarize the key drivers of our agricultural end markets. Commodity prices remain well above year ago levels. Most relevant to our business, the price of corn, while still down from recent highs, is up more than 80% from 2020 lows and continues to sit at 8-year high levels. The underpinnings of the strong pricing come from a multiple of factors, including the surge in exports led by increased demand from China and a rebound in ethanol production as driving and related fuel consumption have increased as the benefits of widespread COVID vaccination prompted many people to resume a more normal lifestyle, including traveling. In addition to the impact from increased demand, the price of corn also reflects global supply concerns, caused from drought conditions in Brazil, resulting in significant yield losses as well as the current worsening drought in the Western United States that appears likely to negatively affect corn production for the upcoming harvest, potentially reducing stock to use ratios. Prices of other agricultural commodities have also seen steep increases, including beans, wheat and cotton, all creating a competitive environment for a finite number of acres we have available for planting in the U.S. Approximately 91 million acres of corn were planted in the U.S. during the 2020 fertilizer year, which is a slight increase over the 2019 fertilizer year. The USDA’s most recent forecast for the 2021 fertilizer year indicates nearly 93 million acres were planted, which has translated into very healthy demand for fertilizers. Along with the strong corn market fundamentals that have driven robust demand for fertilizers as farmers seek to maximize yields, global shortages caused by production curtailments due to the February deep freeze in the central U.S. as well as unplanned downtime at several producers facilities, coupled with reduced imports, have driven nitrogen prices to levels not seen in more than 7 years. Turning to Slide 4, with respect to our industrial and mining business, our end markets have seen meaningful recovery since last spring. As we’ve discussed on past calls, nitric acid is a major input into a variety of home building products. Based on preliminary estimates as of the end of June, U.S. new housing starts has risen above pre-pandemic levels to a 15-year high. Building permit applications, however, have declined recently, which appears to reflect the nationwide supply chain issues I referred to earlier. However, we believe that new home starts will remain strong through at least the end of this year. The auto industry is also a large consumer of nitric acid. Following the halt in production that occurred as a result of the pandemic shutdowns in mid-March of 2020, U.S. light vehicle sales rebounded strongly through April 2021 to levels that exceeded pre-pandemic levels. Over the past several months, due to price inflation as well as the shortage of new car inventory that has occurred due to a shortage of automotive microchips. Vehicle sales have receded, although they remain above a year ago levels. We are watching the situation closely, but at this time, we’re not seeing a drop in the nitric acid demand as a result of the near-term U.S. automotive industry headwinds that we believe are likely to cease later this year. As we have discussed on earlier calls, we are also benefiting from the ramp-up in nitric acid volume associated with our new nitric acid customer agreement, which began last quarter. We have also benefited from strong trends in our mining end markets where we sell a variety of products, including ammonium nitrate solution and low-density ammonium nitrate. This is evidenced by our 30% year-over-year growth in mining-related sales in the second quarter, which reached the highest level for LSB in several years. Our increasing mining sales are being driven by a variety of factors, including the North American copper market where prices for this metal currently stand at 10-year highs even after a recent pullback driven in part by growing production of electric vehicles. Additionally, with residential construction booming throughout many regions in the U.S., production of aggregates has been at peak levels. Importantly, with respect to the future of our mining business over the past 5 years, we have reduced our exposure to coal mining from 33% of our total mining sales volume to what we anticipate will be less than 1% in 2021, a mix shift that is serving us well. We view the current demand trends we are seeing across our key end markets as pointing towards continued increases in sales and prices of our industrial and mining products for the second half of 2021 and into 2022. Over the last 1.5 years, our commercial team has worked hard to put us in a sold-out position, and we now seek ways to maximize our margins by optimizing our product balance and customer mix. Now, I will turn the call over to Cheryl, who will discuss our Q2 financial results and our outlook for the balance of 2021. Cheryl?