Barry Golsen
Analyst · Sidoti & Company
Thanks, Tony. Since Tony covered the financial results, I’m going to focus on our sales activity, order levels, product backlogs or (inaudible) and market drivers as we see them. I’ll also give you an update on progress with the major capital projects, primarily at our El Dorado facility. To start, please turn to page 10, which shows our 2013 second quarter to-date sales mix by the markets we serve. This is a change from historical mix due to the downtime at certain chemical operations and not typical. On page 11, we’ve also included the sales mix for the full year 2012, which is more typical of our sales mix with normalized chemical operations. Focusing first on our Chemical business please go to page 12. Although, we have included data about our second quarter and year-to-date sales on this and the next two pages, comparisons for 2012 for the most part are not meaningful, because the Cherokee and Pryor facilities were not fully operating during a large part of the first half of 2013. Having said that, total sales for the Chemical business in the second quarter, were 121 million, down 12% from the second quarter of 2012. Total sales in the first half of 2013 were 199 million, down 24% from a year ago. With the exception of sales of natural gas which are new this year, and industrial assets during the second quarter of 2013, all major product categories listed were down relative to the second quarter and first half of 2012. Please turn to page 13 for sales of our agricultural products. During the second quarter and first half of 2013, sales of AL fertilizers were lower than during the same period last year. Sales of UAN and ammonia were down as a result of downtime at our Cherokee and Pryor facilities, while sales of agricultural grade ammonium nitrate produced at our El Dorado facility were down due to market conditions primarily due to more imports than a year ago. El Dorado uses ammonia purchase from the pipeline as a feedstock so it’s not always competitive with imports at this time. This is one of the primary reasons for the planned ammonia plant at El Dorado and I’ll come back to that later in the presentation. Turning to our industrial and mining products on page 14, for the second quarter both sales dollars and ton shipped of the nitric gas and sulfuric acid were above the second quarter 2012 levels. Nitric acid sales were up from our Baytown facility, due to increased acid consumption for polyurethane intermediates and new opportunities that arose during a permanent closure of a competitor’s nitric acid plant in the Baytown area. Sulfuric acid sales were up because 2012 sales were impacted adversely by the plant outage, at El Dorado which occurred in May of 2012. Industrial AN sales were lower, as a result of downtime at Cherokee. On page 15, are some priced trends for both the feedstock we use for key Ag products we sell. The cost of natural gas has recently decreased and continues to be relatively low, currently about $3.24 per MMBtu plus transportation cost. This benefit production cost at our Cherokee and Pryor facilities which use natural gas their primary feedstock, puts our El Dorado facility at a competitive disadvantage to plants that are using natural gas as a feedstock. The cost of anhydrous ammonia feedstock we use at El Dorado and Arkansas and the Baytown Texas facilities has declined. In July, it was 525 per ton compared to 690 per ton, a year earlier. Currently ammonia is priced at approximately for 470 per ton – per metric ton at Tampa. Our El Dorado and Baytown facilities use ammonia as feedstock. Most of the products we produce at Baytown and most of the industrial and mining products produced at El Dorado, are sold on a cost plus basis so changes in ammonia costs don’t impact our profitability on those sales. However, at grade AN also produced at El Dorado, is sold at spot market prices. Turning to other Ag products, prices for UAN have fluctuated over the past year and are lower at this time than they were a year ago. If you look at the chart on the lower left, you can see that price of UAN decreased from 335 per ton in July of 2012, to 315 per ton in July of 2013. Based on market indicators, we believe that the current UAN pricing is approximately 265 per ton to 310 per ton depending on distribution point locations. UAN prices have been impacted by low cost urea imports. Looking forward, we have presold substantially all of the UAN production from our Cherokee facility for the balance of the year at an average price of approximately 260 per ton. We’ve also taken advantage of the recent drop in natural gas prices and locked in gas prices for the presold UAN at Cherokee. In July 2013, southern plains plant prices for high density ammonium nitrate or HDAN that is were $380 per ton compared to $465 per ton, 12 months earlier, current pricing is approximately $335 per ton. Currently southern plains ammonia is trading at about $55 per ton, lower than a year ago approximately $460 per ton. We are currently at the typical seasonal low price for all of our agricultural products. Focused on the outlook for the chemical markets we serve, page 16 lists several macro indicators for our agricultural products, most of which continue to be favorable. Grain stock to use ratios both worldwide and in the US, continue to be well although projected high yields in the current planting season should increase these somewhat. Planting levels next spring are expected to be somewhat lower than this year, but still relatively high. Market prices for corn and wheat, although having recently declined, remained favorable to growers. So farmers have an incentive to plant and sell more. All of this should continue to create demand for nitrogen fertilizers. As previously mentioned, we have presold our Cherokee production for the balance of 2013. Finally, low natural gas prices have reduced the cost to manufacture many of our Ag products. North American produce nitrogen fertilizers are currently the lowest cost, factoring in the total cost of production, freight and distribution. The industry consensus is the positive fundamentals for the Ag business should continue in the near to midterm. Despite general industry drivers, weather can have a significant impact on the fertilizer part of our business. As previously discussed, this year’s planting season was substantially the light. Wet and cold conditions in Northern markets delayed the season there while colder and dried conditions delayed the season in our Southwest markets. As a result of the late planting, ammonia usage was off. However, once the season began, weather conditions were generally good and industry wide sales of UAN were good as well. Unfortunately, we missed this opportunity because our UAN producing facilities were out of production during most of this period. Current weather conditions, with abundant moisture, have returned much of our market areas to normal, as opposed to the drought conditions prevalent in recent years and should lead to high fertilizer applications this fall. We continue to be optimistic about our agricultural business. Please turn to page 17. Our industrial products were sold primarily to large customers pursuant to contractual cost flows and/or minimum tech arrangements. The two charts on this page indicate the shift that has occurred in our sales mix in 2013 from 2012 full year. In reality, very little change occurred and the shift from agricultural products to industrial this year was primarily driven by plant downtime. A very significant part of our business continues to be industrial and mining. Page 18 contains some of the market indicators for this area of the business, most of these indicators forecast growth for the next few years. Coal production in United States has declined as a result of low natural gas prices and environmental issues. However, most of our mining business is pursuant to long-term agreements with minimum annual quantity requirements. Please go to page 19 to review the current status of our various chemical production facilities. El Dorado’s natural gas capacity is approximately 80% of its pre-May 2012 levels, and will continue at that level until we complete construction of our new Weatherly 65% acid plant and concentrator during 2015. Cherokee, resumed production in May 2013, is currently operating at its historical level. Pryor resumed production during late April 2013 and although encountered some close startups mechanical issues, it is operating at near design production rates. The Baytown facility is operating at optimum production levels. To recap, all of our chemical facilities are operating at near design rates as required except El Dorado which will have less nitric acid capacity until 2015. Moving on page 20 lists our chemical businesses strategies and some of our key initiatives for 2013. Our primary focus is on plant safety, reliability and key capital projects. Focusing on capital projects, please turn to page 21. Earlier, Tony reviewed the capital budget with you, I will review some of the key projects in additional detail. As we previously mentioned, we plan to add another 375,000 ton per year ammonia plant to our El Dorado facility which we refer to as EDC. Whereas our Cherokee and Pryor facilities use natural gas as their primary feedstock which they convert to ammonia, EDC currently purchases ammonia from the pipeline. EDC currently uses approximately 220,000 tons per year of ammonia to satisfy its current production needs for the other products it produces. The planned ammonia plant will lower Al Dorado’s or EDC’s cost of production and provide approximately 155,000 per tons per year of ammonia capacity above EDC’s current usage. Part of that additional ammonia, will be used to convert to other products with EDC and part will be sold as ammonia via the pipeline that EDC currently purchases from. The chart on this page shows the historical differential between purchasing and producing ammonia for the past three years. The current status of the ammonia plant project is as follows; we have applied for permits and the permitting process is well underway. Anticipating the eventual receipt of permits and to the extent allowed before actually receiving those permits, engineering work is underway. We’ve ordered certain long lead time items. We will soon execute an agreement with an EPC firm, to construct the ammonia plant. By the way, EPC stands for Engineer, Procurement and Construction. As we’ve stated, we plan to have the ammonia plant construction and in operation during 2015, probably the latter part of the 2015. We also plan to replace the DSN direct strong nitric acid plant that was destroyed at EDC, with the state of the art Weatherly 65% acid plant and concentrator. Permits have been applied for, engineering work is in progress, major equipment has been ordered and we expect the plant to be operational in 2015 as well. We will also engage in EPC contractor to continue the construction of this project. The new nitric acid plant will have a capacity of approximately 370,000 tons per year, as compared to 90,000 tons per year from the old DSN plant that is replacing. This will increase EDC’s nitric acid capacity by approximately 280,000 tons per year. At Pryor, we recently completed the installation of a natural gas to ammonia converter. We determined that the old converter was the bottleneck that was preventing Pryor from achieving its designed production rates. The new converter is working well and Pryor is operating at, or near designed production rates of ammonia. In addition to these projects, we continue to place a very high emphasis on safety, the environment and plant reliability. Turning now to our Climate Control business, on page 22, you can see sales by the major product categories we report in our quarterly filings. Total sales for the second quarter were 77 million, an increase of 15% over the second quarter of 2012, with increases in each product segment. Comparing to the 2012 second quarter, sales of heat pumps were up 15%, fan coils were up 23% and sales of other products were up 2%. Total sales for the first six months were approximately 148 million, an increase of 13% over the same period in 2012, again, with increases in each product category. Compared to 2012, year-to-date sales for heat pumps were up 12%, fan coils up 23% and sales of other products up 8%. On page 23, you can see that the second quarter sales of products used in commercial and institutional buildings, were up 16% and sales of our residential products were up 8% compared to last year second quarter. On a year-to-date basis, sales of products used in commercial and institutional buildings were up 17%, whereas sales of our residential products were down 5%. Total bookings during the second quarter of 2013, were 2% below the 2012 second quarter, with both commercial bookings and residential bookings down the same percentage. Year-to-date, our orders were up 3% for 2012 with commercial bookings up 2% and the residential bookings up 4%. The backlog of product orders at June 30, 2013, was 48.9 million, 3% lower than reported a year ago and 12% off the backlog at year-end. Total new orders in July were 20.9 million and our backlog of product orders at July 31st was also 48.9 million. As mentioned in previous conference calls, the commercial recovery has been slower than previously anticipated, and the market for our residential products continues to be somewhat soft. However, we continue to maintain our leading market shares for geothermal and water source heat pumps and for hydraulic fan coils. The next few pages of the power point, deal with the market outlook for construction. On page 24, there is a graph that shows McGraw-Hill’s most recent construction forecast, for certain commercial and institutional building types. These are the building types that are the most important to us, as they comprise 63% of our total Climate Control business sales in 2012. As you can see from the graph, these sectors are all forecast to grow over the next six years. In the aggregate, they are expected to grow by just over 5% during 2013 and 66% through 2017. Three months ago, the same McGraw-Hill forecast indicated that in the aggregate these markets were expected to increase by 9% in ‘13 and 67% through 2017. Clearly the indications are for growth but how much and exact and when it will materialize exactly is difficult to pin down. In addition to monitoring construction forecast by sector, we also track the Architectural Billings Index which is considered to be an indicator for non-residential construction spending nine to 12 months in the future. So if you turn to page 25, there is a graph of the ABI. June score of 51.6 makes 10 out of the last 11 months above 50, which indicates an expansion in billings. This is a very positive sign that the construction market is stabilizing. We believe the general consensus of most economists and construction industry experts, is that the recovery in commercial and institutional, new construction will continue albeit at a slower pace than originally predicted. While new construction remains a greater part of our business, approximately 70% of Climate Control business sales, renovation and retrofit of existing buildings have been and will continue to be an important market for us. Fortunately, all of our Climate Control business are well suited for this part of the market as well as new construction. During 2012, 18% of our Climate Control business sales were geothermal heat pumps used in single family residential applications. Page 26 shows McGraw-Hill’s forecast for single family residential construction starts. McGraw-Hill forecasted that housing starts will increase from about 516,000 in 2012 to 640,000 in 2013, a 24% increase although in absolute numbers not tremendously high, and to over 1.1 million per year in 2015 to 2017. If this occurs, it should benefit our residential geothermal business. However, we do believe that low and relatively stable energy prices continue to dampen the customer enthusiasm for energy saving as alternative. An encouraging positive trend is the increase in green construction that has occurred in the last few years and is expected to continue. Now I showed you this on the last conference call, but for people that are new to the call this year, I included this again. On page 27, there is a graph that depicts the Dodge 2013 Green Construction Outlook published by McGraw Hill. It forecast that the green construction market will grow from approximately 85 billion in 2012, to between 204 million and 248 billion in 2016. This should benefit the sale of our highly energy efficient products, which includes our geothermal products and many of our other products as well. Turning to page 28, we’ve listed our Climate Control business strategies and some key initiatives. Our primary initiatives for 2013 are the introductions of several new products and a heavy focus on lean operational excellence projects, intended to reduce costs, eliminate waste, streamline processes and improve quality. One accomplishment that we’re very proud of is that our innovative and ultra-energy efficient Trilogy geothermal heat pump series recently received the R&D 100 Award from R&D Magazine. This is widely recognized at the Oscars of Innovation. The R&D 100 Awards identify top technology products of the year and since 1963, they’ve recognized revolutionary technologies newly introduced to the market. Many of those have become household names to you, including things like the flashcube, automated teller machines, the halogen lamps, the fax machine, liquid crystal displays, photo CDs the Nicoderm anti-smoking patch, anti-cancer drugs and HDTV. Recent winners have included next generation MRI machines, laser metal forming tools and building blocks for fusion experiments. So we’re extremely proud of that award for the great technology that we’ve developed over the last couple of years. Finally, on a housekeeping note, Tony and I will participating in the Global Hunter Securities Top Idea Conference in Chicago on September 5th, and we hope to see some of you there. That concludes the prepared portion of the call. I’d like to request that during the Q&A, you limit your questions to three or four so that others also have a chance to participate. If you have more questions, you can get back on the queue and ask them later. Operator, please poll for questions