Patrick Dumont
Analyst · Jared Shojaian of Wolfe Research
Good question, Justin, good question. Well, the first question you asked about the time play I don't think that's worth worrying about. We don't see any evidence of that, if anything this market. If you haven't spent enough time there watching the way these customers come and gamble and again, the only legal jurisdiction available to close to mainland China is Macao. And in case you haven't been there recently, it's extraordinary place. I mean, it's evolved to a place I think one of the reasons Vegas will have a difficult time in the future is it's such an attractive environment for gamers. And it's got all the bells and whistles, all the dining and retail and entertainment if you want right across the bridge there. So, it's pretty extraordinary and the bridge, of course added – it gilded that already big lily. So, I don't worry at all about Chinese people gaming longer. That's not a problem at all. As far as you know, that business where it goes just gets bigger and better. And I wouldn't worry at all about these people coming in and that business growing. As your whole percentage question, I think I alluded to it earlier. It's fasting and the Chinese market is somewhat counterintuitive. Having grown up in places like Atlantic City and Las Vegas and in Chicago and even the Caribbean, you have this belief that the larger bank rolled customers would gravitate towards the – it's called the better advantage bets, but the Chinese are counterintuitive. And they make that one proposition bets they play sometimes only proposition bets, they play far beyond the time you think they would, with most customers you worry about with you adequate time to qualify for complimentary or discounts. The Chinese just wonder if they're going to leave the table. They're a much different profile and I think that lends itself to confusion about whole percentage. We held, I think it was – what it was 25 or 24 something in Q1, I don't think there is aberration at all. It's just a question of how to mix your bets. When you have a – it all comes down to how they bet the game. So, this is this is a math business and when they make these bets that help the household higher, you're going to hold higher. And what we saw in Q1 is not aberrational. In fact, I could make the argument that the whole person is gravitating towards the higher end 24, 25, 26 versus 21, 22. The premium mass customer stays longer, has a very confusing exit strategy. They make bets that don't seem to on the face wouldn't be the right thing to do. So, I think you're going to see as premium mass get stronger whole percentages trade up. Am I prepared today was 23 versus 24 versus 20? I don't know. And I think again, depends on the mix of bets events. They bet pairs and ties; they don't go straight bet – bank player over there. They bet the lucky six, they bet things that we find somewhat confusing as operators. But it's an incredible market. Also, they come from faraway places and they stay longer. And so, when they get to Macao it's not just, they're going to go back to their home city no place the gamble, so they have an outsize gaming appetites, but clearly, it's a mathematical equation that we can always gauge. But I don't think anyone's prepared to take exactly as a 23s, 24s, 25, we do know things are trading up though the whole markets moving towards a higher whole percentage category which is helpful to us and our fellow operators, competitors. So again, as the market mix changes, players come from further away, more premium mass. I think you're going to see whole percentage trade up. Is our first quarter repeatable? I believe it's absolutely repeatable. I think this business is going to evolve further, but no one I've met can tell exactly what the whole percentage numbers should be.