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Lumen Technologies, Inc. (LUMN)

Q3 2015 Earnings Call· Wed, Nov 4, 2015

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to CenturyLink's third quarter 2015 earnings conference call. All participants are in a listen-only mode. Later, we'll conduct a question and answer session. Instructions will be given at that time. As a reminder, this conference call is being recorded. At this time, I would like to hand the conference over to Mr. Tony Davis, Vice President, Investor Relations. Sir, you may begin.

Tony Davis - Vice President Investor Relations, CenturyLink, Inc.

Management

Thank you, Sayed, and good afternoon, everyone, and welcome to our call today to discuss CenturyLink's third quarter 2015 results, released earlier this afternoon. The slide presentation we will be reviewing during the prepared remarks portion of today's call is available in the Investor Relations section of our corporate website at ir.CenturyLink.com. At the conclusion of our prepared remarks today, we will open the call for question and answer. On slide 2, you will find our Safe Harbor language. We will be making certain forward-looking statements today, particularly as they pertain to guidance for fourth quarter 2015 and other outlooks on our business. We ask that you review our disclosure found on this slide, as well as in our press release, and in our SEC filings, which describe factors that could cause our actual results to differ materially from those projected by us in our forward-looking statements. We ask that you also note that our earnings release issued earlier this afternoon and the slide presentation and remarks made during this call contain certain non-GAAP financial measures. Reconciliation between the non-GAAP financial measures and the GAAP financial measures are available in our earnings release and on our website at ir.CenturyLink.com. Now, turning to slide 3, your host for today's call is Glen Post, Chief Executive Officer and President of CenturyLink. Joining Glen will be Stewart Ewing, CenturyLink's Chief Financial Officer, and also available during the question and answer portion of today's call will be Ross Garrity, CenturyLink's Interim President of Global Markets. Our call today will be available for telephone replay through November 12, 2015, and the webcast replay of our call will be available through November 26, 2015. Anyone listening to a taped or webcast replay or reading a written transcript of this call should note that all information presented…

Operator

Operator

Thank you, sir. Our first question comes from Michael Rollins. Your line is open. Please go ahead.

Michael I. Rollins - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc.

Analyst

Hi. Thanks for taking the question. I was curious if you'd talk a little bit more about the thought process of pursuing strategic alternatives for the data center business. Firstly, if you dispose of that, would that include the cloud and hosting business, or would it be colocation only? Second, could you talk to us about how much capital you've put into that business to-date, including the M&A? And then, third, could you give us an EBITDA figure for that business in terms of the portion that you're pursuing these alternatives for? Thanks. Glen F. Post - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Yeah, Mike. First of all, we're not ready to talk about the financials at this point. Obviously, we do disclose the revenue for this business is about $600 million annually today. And the sale of these assets do not include our cloud and hosting operations, strictly the data center operations, the colo business itself. That's what we're selling or looking to sell, looking at alternatives, looking at what the best use of these or management of these assets will be. So that's our view right now. We're just starting this process.

Michael I. Rollins - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc.

Analyst

And can you just refresh our memory with how much of the assets that you physically own maybe versus those that you lease from third parties? Glen F. Post - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Mike, most of the assets are leased from third parties. We own several of the data center properties, but just guessing offhand, probably less than 10 or so. Some of the old Qwest data center assets are primarily the ones that we own. Most of the others are leased.

Michael I. Rollins - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc.

Analyst

Last question. As you thought about pursuing strategic alternatives for this part of your business, did you evaluate pursuing strategic alternatives for any other parts of your business? Or is that something that you may consider in the future? And thanks again for answering all those questions. Glen F. Post - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Yeah, Mike. We continue to look at all of our assets and look at the opportunities for them. And these are the ones we believe today are the ones we should take a look at. We may look at others in the future. But right now, this is the part of the business that we believe that is not necessarily important for us to own. So this is why we're looking at these assets as far as the strategic alternatives are concerned.

Michael I. Rollins - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc.

Analyst

Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from David Barden from Bank of America. Your line's open. Please go ahead.

David W. Barden - Bank of America Merrill Lynch

Analyst

Hey, guys. Thanks for taking the questions. I guess, first, just a follow-up on that. If this $600 million colo business generates a 35% margin and it were to trade at the multiple at which Windstream recently announced their deal, that'd be about $3 billion. And then if you took about half of that and got back to the midpoint of your leverage range, you'd still have $1.5 billion. What would be your thought process in terms of priorities for allocating that money? 10% of the equity market cap, it obviously potentially creates a lot of options that'd be interesting to discuss. Second, if you could just give us, more specifically of the $125 million cost cuts, what was in the third quarter? And obviously then we could do the math on the fourth quarter. And then the last piece would be, Stewart, just on those slides, on 11 and 12, I think that there's a big debate around a company like a CenturyLink, and in particular CenturyLink, is your revenues are coming down, you've had a tough time figuring out what's going to happen on revenue. We're having a tough time. But even tougher has been trying to line up the margins with these different businesses to try to figure out what's important. If CPE comes down, it's not important, but if legacy voice does, it is. Can you put margins around these different buckets so that we could do the math and figure out as we predict what's happening to revenue decline, what's going to happen to margin decline? Thanks. Glen F. Post - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: David, this is Glen. I'll answer the first question and ask Stewart to address the others. We realize there are a lot of good options for us to…

David W. Barden - Bank of America Merrill Lynch

Analyst

Got it. Okay. Thanks, guys.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from Amir Rozwadowski from Barclays. Your line's open. Please go ahead.

Amir Rozwadowski - Barclays Capital, Inc.

Analyst

Thank you very much. Just following up on some of the questions around the strategic alternatives that you're currently pursuing. Can you provide us with a bit more color in terms of why do you believe this is the opportune time right now to monetize sort of the colocation services business? I would suspect that given the demand environment, there is healthy demand for those types of services. So would love to hear sort of your thought process on why this is the opportune time. And I recognize that thinking about sort of specifics around what you could do with that capital building, upon David's prior question, is probably a bit early stage right now, but as you look at your portfolio of assets today, how do you feel about the portfolio assets in terms of the growth opportunities? Because clearly, within the portfolio, there are some key growth opportunities. And how we should think about whether or not there's a potential opportunity to bolt on additional assets or anything along those lines in order to accelerate growth toward your strategic services. Thank you very much. Glen F. Post - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Amir, first of all, as you mentioned as far as why now is an opportune time. Valuations are obviously good right now. They can always change, but we know the market's good. But that's just one factor. For us to really grow the business, the colo business, it requires really more CapEx than we've been willing to put in the business. We said that up-front, that we weren't going to invest heavily in the data centers, that we felt they were a synergistic asset that we could grow with the rest of our business. However, with the valuations, with the – we think our…

Amir Rozwadowski - Barclays Capital, Inc.

Analyst

Thank you very much, and one follow-up, if I may. In terms of your operations, you folks had transitioned a bit of your strategy with respect to your sales force in recent quarters. Would love to get an update in terms of how that transition has occurred and in terms of the progress that you've made from that perspective. Glen F. Post - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Well, it was a pretty bumpy pride. We said up front it was not going to be – we were going to have some issues with that. It lasted a little longer than we thought. However, if you look at our sales results this last quarter especially, the latter part of the second quarter and going into third quarter and especially into fourth quarter, we're seeing the benefits of those changes really come to fruition. So we believe it is – we're proving that it was the right move. And we're hoping – there are some adjustments we'll make to really fine tune it, but we believe these were positive changes that we're going to see benefit from in the months and years ahead.

Amir Rozwadowski - Barclays Capital, Inc.

Analyst

Thank you very much for taking the questions. Glen F. Post - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from Simon Flannery with Morgan Stanley. Your line's open. Please go ahead. Simon Flannery - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC: Great. Thanks a lot. You touched on the revenue growth outlook. Can you talk a little bit about the competitive environment with cable? The broadband market was a little bit soft, or broadband adds were a little bit soft. What's going on there – churn, gross adds? What can you do to return to growth there? And also on the – maybe talk a little bit about Prism. We were talking earlier today on one of the calls about cord cutting by the Millennials and the move to over the top, skinny bundles, et cetera. Any thoughts on some of those offerings? Thanks. Glen F. Post - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: I'm going to ask Ross Garrity to talk about that for a minute with you guys. Simon Flannery - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC: Okay.

Ross D. Garrity - Senior Vice President-IT Solutions

Analyst

Yeah, just in the – hi, it's nice to meet you. In the Consumer market, the competitive environment has remained fairly stable, but we're seeing another round of speed increases coming from sort of cable providers, from the cable providers. But we continue to see success in areas where we've got greater speeds, and we remain challenged in areas without the higher speeds. We are still continuing to see strong penetration velocity, especially in our GPON markets. In our small to medium business over the last three quarters, we've seen our investments increase distribution and business GPON in advanced capabilities such as our managed office significantly improved our market share trends versus the cable providers. And we expect to see improving sales and market share trends in the segment, certainly going into 2016. So I think the outlook is fairly positive. Glen F. Post - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: And, Simon, I might add that the change that we made in the credit policies and, really, collections drove probably about 17,000 or so of the 37,000 decline we saw in high-speed Internet customers during the quarter. We are going to focus on really trying to penetrate the areas where we have rolled out GPON. We're also looking at other ways to improve our speeds – continually improve our speeds over copper. So I think that we'll be able to remain competitive and hopefully become more competitive, actually, than we are today. We're also working on an over-the-top offering that we'll be trialing in the third quarter that we hope to roll out on a trial basis in two or three markets, latter part of this year and early next year, that we think will help us with the Millennials and be a lower-cost option from the standpoint of the way we roll it out than our Prism product is today. Simon Flannery - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC: Great. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from Batya Levi from UBS. Your line is open. Please go ahead.

Batya Levi - UBS Securities LLC

Analyst

Great. Thank you. Can you address the slowdown in high-speed retail business revenues that we saw? I think it grew 8.6% versus a trend of double-digit growth. And what are you doing to accelerate that growth again? And second question on the CapEx. You pulled forward some of the spending into third quarter and you maintained the guide for the year. How should we think about potentially different CapEx buckets for next year? R. Stewart Ewing - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: So, Batya, the slowdown in high-speed internet revenues, we actually had some pretty large federal items that flowed through in the first quarter and the second quarter that didn't reoccur in the third quarter. So I think that's part of that. But part of what we're doing there, too, on high-speed internet and Ethernet really is really pushing to reduce our provisioning periods, like Glen spoke about earlier during his part. In terms of CapEx for 2016, we're currently thinking about $3 billion, which will probably include $350 million to $400 million of CapEx associated with the rollout of the CAF-II.

Batya Levi - UBS Securities LLC

Analyst

And just to follow up, this is for 2016? R. Stewart Ewing - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: 2016, yes. CapEx.

Batya Levi - UBS Securities LLC

Analyst

Okay. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from Frank Louthan from Raymond James. Your line is open. Please go ahead. Frank G. Louthan - Raymond James & Associates, Inc.: Great. Thank you. Can you talk a little bit about what's some other things it might take to get the strategic growth back up? And any kind of contracts or other things you can give to suggest that this has kind of changed? And then can you walk us through how you're going to be deploying the CAF-II funds, when we'll start to see the construction for that? And when do you expect to see revenue? And any chance that those deployments might also include video? Thanks. Glen F. Post - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Yeah, Frank, I have a few comments and let Stewart add in for strategic growth back up. If you look at the second half sales growth and funnel expansion, it is creating some improving trends headed into 2016, so we think that's a sign. If you look at our sales, just the sales I mentioned earlier in the funnel, we think that's really a positive. We're seeing improvement in the front line sales productivity on the Business side. We're seeing higher participation rates or folks hitting our quotas basically. We're seeing growth in our channel partners and alliances there. We expect further growth there in the months ahead. We're also expanding our wholesale product to include HSI and VoIP, Voice over IP. So we expect to enhance our wholesale sales there and revenue. And then finally, just the continued expansion of GPON and Prism. We've increased our GPON market significantly this year, up to 780,000 households passed. And just that expansion there, along with the business GPON up to about 490,000 businesses now, those give…

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from Mike McCormack from Jefferies. Your line is open. Please go ahead.

Michael L. McCormack - Jefferies LLC

Analyst

Hey, guys. Thanks. Maybe just a quick comment. I know, Glen, you were talking about the consumer credit on the broadband side driving some share loss. I would have thought, I guess, that broadband was nondiscretionary. I guess you don't have a sense for where those folks are going. But can you just explain how much more runway we have on that consumer credit tightening piece? And then second part, thinking about the Consumer high-speed internet revenues, do you have any sense or you can break down for us between the fiber-to-the-node served homes versus copper-based DSL? Thanks. Glen F. Post - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Yeah, Mike. Firstly, on the consumer credit, a lot of folks are just switching back and forth carriers. A lot of that's taking place there. And a lot of nonpaid – we just tightened up on those folks who were not paying, basically, and just switching back and forth. So we think we're through – we know we're through the majority of that, but there could be – we'll continue to see the impact of this going forward, but the majority of what caused the initial hit, I think we're through most of that. R. Stewart Ewing - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: And on the breakdown between fiber to the node and non-fiber to the node, we really don't break that out. But I can tell you, Mike, that our best penetration really in the market's where we have the higher speeds. And that's why we're focused on investing more in access in 2016 to provide higher speeds for our customers such that it will give us a better opportunity to gain them as a customer.

Michael L. McCormack - Jefferies LLC

Analyst

Okay. Thanks.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from James Moorman from D. A. Davidson. Your line's open. Please go ahead. James G. Moorman - D. A. Davidson & Co.: Yeah, thanks. Could you just give us kind of your thoughts on the expectations for a bonus depreciation? Has anything changed in terms of you outlook for cash taxes for next year? R. Stewart Ewing - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: Yes, so really the outlook for cash taxes is the same as it was last quarter. Basically, our most current information is that we really believe bonus depreciation is squarely in the radar of congressional leaders. The House Ways and Means Committee cleared legislation making 50% bonus depreciation part of the permanent tax code, and the Senate Finance Committee included a two-year extension of 50% bonus retroactive 2015 and 2016 with their extenders package. So we believe the extenders package is going to move along, and we really think that the Senate staff has been really outspoken to our people in terms of getting bonus depreciation this year. So we feel more comfortable that we'll have bonus depreciation in 2015 and 2016 than we did last quarter. And we felt pretty good about it then. James G. Moorman - D. A. Davidson & Co.: Thanks.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from David Saber from Wells Fargo. Your line is open. Please go ahead.

David Saber - Wells Fargo Securities LLC

Analyst

Thanks for taking the question. Related to the data center strategic review, I just wanted to ask around your leverage target, which has been three times for some time. Would this potentially change that target? And the only reason I ask is that if you were to receive a large amount of cash, you have very little prepayable debt. So I just wanted to ask around the leverage target in general. Thanks. R. Stewart Ewing - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: So, David, that's one of the things we'll have to work through as we get further into the process, but our target is really still about three times. We have said we'll allow that to drift up, just if EBITDA deteriorates and we see EBITDA turning around, out to ultimately bring the leverage back down. So we wouldn't really be held by a rating, more or less, in terms of keeping our EBITDA within a ratings range, but we'll just determine once we get closer to the execution of the opportunity of the data centers as to where we might go with the proceeds there.

David Saber - Wells Fargo Securities LLC

Analyst

Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. I'm showing no further questions at this time. I would like to hand the conference back over to Mr. Glen Post for closing remarks. Glen F. Post - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Thank you, Sayed. Overall, I'll just say I believe we have the best portfolio of assets we've ever had at the company. Now it's really about execution. We're taking these assets, leveraging and positioning them to drive future revenue growth, EBITDA growth and shareholder value. While there will be quarterly ups and downs, CenturyLink's long-term trajectory, in my view, is as positive as it's ever been. So look forward to working with you all in the months ahead. Thank you for joining our call today, and I look forward to speaking with you at the fourth quarter call. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for participating in today's conference. This concludes our program. You may all disconnect. Have a wonderful day.